A discipline-wide investigation of the replicability of Psychology papers over the past two decades.

Conjecture about the weak replicability in social sciences has made scholars eager to quantify the scale and scope of replication failure for a discipline. Yet small-scale manual replication methods alone are ill-suited to deal with this big data problem. Here, we conduct a discipline-wide replication census in science. Our sample (N = 14,126 papers) covers nearly all papers published in the six top-tier Psychology journals over the past 20 y. Using a validated machine learning model that estimates a paper's likelihood of replication, we found evidence that both supports and refutes speculations drawn from a relatively small sample of manual replications. First, we find that a single overall replication rate of Psychology poorly captures the varying degree of replicability among subfields. Second, we find that replication rates are strongly correlated with research methods in all subfields. Experiments replicate at a significantly lower rate than do non-experimental studies. Third, we find that authors' cumulative publication number and citation impact are positively related to the likelihood of replication, while other proxies of research quality and rigor, such as an author's university prestige and a paper's citations, are unrelated to replicability. Finally, contrary to the ideal that media attention should cover replicable research, we find that media attention is positively related to the likelihood of replication failure. Our assessments of the scale and scope of replicability are important next steps toward broadly resolving issues of replicability.

Using cognitive psychology to understand GPT-3.

We study GPT-3, a recent large language model, using tools from cognitive psychology. More specifically, we assess GPT-3's decision-making, information search, deliberation, and causal reasoning abilities on a battery of canonical experiments from the literature. We find that much of GPT-3's behavior is impressive: It solves vignette-based tasks similarly or better than human subjects, is able to make decent decisions from descriptions, outperforms humans in a multiarmed bandit task, and shows signatures of model-based reinforcement learning. Yet, we also find that small perturbations to vignette-based tasks can lead GPT-3 vastly astray, that it shows no signatures of directed exploration, and that it fails miserably in a causal reasoning task. Taken together, these results enrich our understanding of current large language models and pave the way for future investigations using tools from cognitive psychology to study increasingly capable and opaque artificial agents.

Greed communication predicts the approval and reach of US senators' tweets.

Social media are at the forefront of modern political campaigning. They allow politicians to communicate directly with constituents and constituents to endorse politicians' messages and share them with their networks. Analyzing every tweet of all US senators holding office from 2013 to 2021 (861,104 tweets from 140 senators), we identify a psycholinguistic factor, greed communication, that robustly predicts increased approval (favorites) and reach (retweets). These effects persist when tested against diverse established psycholinguistic predictors of political content dissemination on social media and various other psycholinguistic variables. We further find that greed communication in the tweets of Democratic senators is associated with greater approval and retweeting compared to greed communication in the tweets of Republican senators, especially when those tweets also mention political outgroups.

Failing to replicate predicts citation declines in psychology.

With a sample of 228 psychology papers that failed to replicate, we tested whether the trajectory of citation patterns changes following the publication of a failure to replicate. Across models, we found consistent evidence that failing to replicate predicted lower future citations and that the size of this reduction increased over time. In a 14-y postpublication period, we estimated that the publication of a failed replication was associated with an average citation decline of 14% for original papers. These findings suggest that the publication of failed replications may contribute to a self-correcting science by decreasing scholars' reliance on unreplicable original findings.

No association between numerical ability and politically motivated reasoning in a large US probability sample.

The highly influential theory of "Motivated System 2 Reasoning" argues that analytical, deliberative ("System 2") reasoning is hijacked by identity when considering ideologically charged issues-leading people who are more likely to engage in such reasoning to be more polarized, rather than more accurate. Here, we fail to replicate the key empirical support for this theory across five contentious issues, using a large gold-standard nationally representative probability sample of Americans. While participants were more accurate in evaluating a contingency table when the outcome aligned with their politics (even when controlling for prior beliefs), we find that participants with higher numeracy were more accurate in evaluating the contingency table, regardless of whether or not the table's outcome aligned with their politics. These findings call for a reconsideration of the effect of identity on analytical reasoning.

Even lawyers do not like legalese.

Across modern civilization, societal norms and rules are established and communicated largely in the form of written laws. Despite their prevalence and importance, legal documents have long been widely acknowledged to be difficult to understand for those who are required to comply with them (i.e., everyone). Why? Across two preregistered experiments, we evaluated five hypotheses for why lawyers write in a complex manner. Experiment 1 revealed that lawyers, like laypeople, were less able to recall and comprehend legal content drafted in a complex "legalese" register than content of equivalent meaning drafted in a simplified register. Experiment 2 revealed that lawyers rated simplified contracts as equally enforceable as legalese contracts, and rated simplified contracts as preferable to legalese contracts on several dimensions-including overall quality, appropriateness of style, and likelihood of being signed by a client. These results suggest that lawyers who write in a convoluted manner do so as a matter of convenience and tradition as opposed to an outright preference and that simplifying legal documents would be both tractable and beneficial for lawyers and nonlawyers alike.

The Moral Psychology of Artificial Intelligence.

Moral psychology was shaped around three categories of agents and patients: humans, other animals, and supernatural beings. Rapid progress in artificial intelligence has introduced a fourth category for our moral psychology to deal with: intelligent machines. Machines can perform as moral agents, making decisions that affect the outcomes of human patients or solving moral dilemmas without human supervision. Machines can be perceived as moral patients, whose outcomes can be affected by human decisions, with important consequences for human-machine cooperation. Machines can be moral proxies that human agents and patients send as their delegates to moral interactions or use as a disguise in these interactions. Here we review the experimental literature on machines as moral agents, moral patients, and moral proxies, with a focus on recent findings and the open questions that they suggest.

A moral trade-off system produces intuitive judgments that are rational and coherent and strike a balance between conflicting moral values.

How does the mind make moral judgments when the only way to satisfy one moral value is to neglect another? Moral dilemmas posed a recurrent adaptive problem for ancestral hominins, whose cooperative social life created multiple responsibilities to others. For many dilemmas, striking a balance between two conflicting values (a compromise judgment) would have promoted fitness better than neglecting one value to fully satisfy the other (an extreme judgment). We propose that natural selection favored the evolution of a cognitive system designed for making trade-offs between conflicting moral values. Its nonconscious computations respond to dilemmas by constructing "rightness functions": temporary representations specific to the situation at hand. A rightness function represents, in compact form, an ordering of all the solutions that the mind can conceive of (whether feasible or not) in terms of moral rightness. An optimizing algorithm selects, among the feasible solutions, one with the highest level of rightness. The moral trade-off system hypothesis makes various novel predictions: People make compromise judgments, judgments respond to incentives, judgments respect the axioms of rational choice, and judgments respond coherently to morally relevant variables (such as willingness, fairness, and reciprocity). We successfully tested these predictions using a new trolley-like dilemma. This dilemma has two original features: It admits both extreme and compromise judgments, and it allows incentives-in this case, the human cost of saving lives-to be varied systematically. No other existing model predicts the experimental results, which contradict an influential dual-process model.

Autism attenuates the perception of the mind-body divide.

People are intuitive Dualists-they tacitly consider the mind as ethereal, distinct from the body. Here we ask whether Dualism emerges naturally from the conflicting core principles that guide reasoning about objects, on the one hand, and about the minds of agents (theory of mind, ToM), on the other. To address this question, we explore Dualist reasoning in autism spectrum disorder (ASD)-a congenital disorder known to compromise ToM. If Dualism arises from ToM, then ASD ought to attenuate Dualism and promote Physicalism. In line with this prediction, Experiment 1 shows that, compared to controls, people with ASD are more likely to view psychological traits as embodied-as likely to manifest in a replica of one's body. Experiment 2 demonstrates that, unlike controls, people with ASD do not consider thoughts as disembodied-as persistent in the afterlife (upon the body's demise). If ASD promotes the perception of the psyche as embodied, and if (per Essentialism) embodiment suggests innateness, then ASD should further promote Nativism-this bias is shown in Experiment 3. Finally, Experiment 4 demonstrates that, in neurotypical (NT) participants, difficulties with ToM correlate with Physicalism. These results are the first to show that ASD attenuates Dualist reasoning and to link Dualism to ToM. These conclusions suggest that the mind-body distinction might be natural for people to entertain.

Masks as a moral symbol: Masks reduce wearers' deviant behavior in China during COVID-19.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, mask wearing has become a global phenomenon. How do masks influence wearers' behavior in everyday life? We examine the effect of masks on wearers' deviant behavior in China, where mask wearing is mostly a public-health issue rather than a political issue. Drawing on behavioral ethics research, we test two competing hypotheses: (a) masks disinhibit wearers' deviant behavior by increasing their sense of anonymity and (b) masks are a moral symbol that reduces wearers' deviant behavior by heightening their moral awareness. The latter hypothesis was consistently supported by 10 studies (including direct replications) using mixed methods (e.g., traffic camera recording analysis, observational field studies, experiments, and natural field experiment) and different measures of deviant behavior (e.g., running a red light, bike parking in no-parking zones, cheating for money, and deviant behavior in the library). Our research (n = 68,243) is among the first to uncover the psychological and behavioral consequences of mask wearing beyond its health benefits.

The surprising underperformance of East Asians in US law and business schools: The liability of low assertiveness and the ameliorative potential of online classrooms.

SignificanceTo date, researchers and practitioners have focused on the academic challenges of underrepresented ethnic groups in the United States. In comparison, Asians have received limited attention, as they are commonly assumed to excel across all educational stages. Six large studies challenge this assumption by revealing that East Asians (but not South Asians) underperform in US law schools and business schools. This is not because East Asians are less academically motivated or less proficient in English but because their low verbal assertiveness is culturally incongruent with the assertiveness prized by US law and business schools. Online classes (via Zoom) mitigated East Asians' underperformance in courses emphasizing assertiveness and class participation. Educators should reexamine pedagogical practices to create a culturally inclusive classroom.

Gut microbiota signatures of vulnerability to food addiction in mice and humans.

OBJECTIVE: Food addiction is a multifactorial disorder characterised by a loss of control over food intake that may promote obesity and alter gut microbiota composition. We have investigated the potential involvement of the gut microbiota in the mechanisms underlying food addiction. DESIGN: We used the Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) 2.0 criteria to classify extreme food addiction in mouse and human subpopulations to identify gut microbiota signatures associated with vulnerability to this disorder. RESULTS: Both animal and human cohorts showed important similarities in the gut microbiota signatures linked to food addiction. The signatures suggested possible non-beneficial effects of bacteria belonging to the Proteobacteria phylum and potential protective effects of Actinobacteria against the development of food addiction in both cohorts of humans and mice. A decreased relative abundance of the species Blautia wexlerae was observed in addicted humans and of Blautia genus in addicted mice. Administration of the non-digestible carbohydrates, lactulose and rhamnose, known to favour Blautia growth, led to increased relative abundance of Blautia in mice faeces in parallel with dramatic improvements in food addiction. A similar improvement was revealed after oral administration of Blautia wexlerae as a beneficial microbe. CONCLUSION: By understanding the crosstalk between this behavioural alteration and gut microbiota, these findings constitute a step forward to future treatments for food addiction and related eating disorders.

Association Between Mental Health Burden, Clinical Presentation, and Outcomes in Individuals With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Along with the rising burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD), mental health concerns are increasingly being recognized as a comorbidity to address in the chronic disease management of symptomatic PAD. Apart from a high prevalence of comorbid mental health conditions, the role of pain and changing health behaviors and the broader impacts of illness and adaptation to living with PAD require specialized behavioral health expertise. This scientific statement builds a case that this expertise should be integrated within the multidisciplinary PAD team. Furthermore, areas such as cognitive dysfunction and palliative care are highlighted as needing psychological interventions. Although much of the evidence of the efficacy of psychological and psychotropic interventions has been extrapolated from other cardiovascular populations, evidence for the role of psychological interventions for behavior change, for example, uptake of exercise regimens, is increasingly being accrued within PAD. Areas for behavioral health needs and interactions with PAD treatment are discussed, including the use of opioids, depression management, anxiety and stress reduction interventions, the use of benzodiazepines and antidepressants, smoking cessation, rehabilitation trajectories after amputation, and the role of cognitive decline for PAD treatment and outcomes. A case summary highlights the stigma around mental health and vascular disease and the fragmentation of care. This scientific statement provides remarks for building a road map for integrated behavioral PAD care and potential solutions to overcome these barriers. Instrumental to reaching these changes are interprofessional advocacy efforts and initiatives that help break down the stigma around mental health and promote evidence-based collaborative, nonhierarchical, and multidisciplinary PAD care.