Social and genetic associations with educational performance in a Scandinavian welfare state.

Recent research has suggested that across Western developed societies, the influence of genetics on educational outcomes is relatively constant. However, the degree to which family environment matters varies, such that countries with high levels of intergenerational mobility have weaker associations of family background. Research in this vein has relied on twin-based estimates, which involve variance decomposition, so direct assessment of the association of genes and environments is not possible. In the present study, we approach the question by directly measuring the impact of child genotype, parental genetic nurture, and parental realized education on educational achievement in primary and secondary school. We deploy data from a social democratic context (Norway) and contrast our findings with those derived from more liberal welfare state contexts. Results point to genetics only confounding the relationship between parent status and offspring achievement to a small degree. Genetic nurture associations are similar to those in other societies. We find no, or very small, gene-environment interactions and parent-child genotype interactions with respect to test scores. In sum, in a Scandinavian welfare state context, both genetic and environmental associations are of similar magnitude as in societies with less-robust efforts to mitigate the influence of family background.

Quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness against cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse in Norway: A registry-based study of 0,9 million Norwegian women.

In Norway, single cohort vaccination with quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccine targeting 12-year-old girls took place from 2009-2016. In 2020, the oldest vaccinated cohort was 23 years old and had approached the age where risk of being diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) increases rapidly. The aim of this cohort study was to assess direct qHPV vaccine effectiveness (VE) against CIN2+ among Norwegian women aged 16-30 in 2007-2020. By using population-based health registries and individual-level data on vaccination status and potential subsequent CIN2+ incidence, we found 82% qHPV VE among women vaccinated before the age of 17.

Incidence, survival, and mortality of cancer in children and young adolescents in Belgium and the Netherlands in 2004-2015: A comparative population-based study.

International comparisons of cancer surveillance measures may provide insight into inequalities in registration practices, etiological factors, and treatment strategies. This study aimed to compare incidence, survival, and mortality of cancer in children and young adolescents between Belgium and the Netherlands. All children (0-14 years) and young adolescents (15-17 years) diagnosed with cancer between 2004 and 2015 were selected from the population-based cancer registries of Belgium (N = 4739) and the Netherlands (N = 7322). Differences in incidence and mortality were expressed as standardized rate ratios (SRR; BE/NL). Five-year observed survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. During 2004-2015, the overall cancer incidence among children and young adolescents was similar in both countries. Incidence of neuroblastoma was significantly higher in Belgian children (2010-2015: SRR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6). Five-year survival of all malignant cancers was comparable in 2010-2015, exceeding 80% in both age groups. Remarkable differences in survival existed in children for malignant central nervous system (CNS) tumors in 2004-2009 (BE = 62%, NL = 45%), for acute myeloid leukemia (BE = 68%, NL = 78%) and rhabdomyosarcomas (BE = 60%, NL = 79%) in 2010-2015, and for neuroblastoma in both periods (2004-2009: BE = 76%, NL = 64%; 2010-2015: BE = 82%, NL = 64%). Overall cancer mortality in children decreased by approximately 3 percent-points annually in both countries, but was slightly lower in Belgium in 2004-2009 (SRR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.7-1.0). Despite differences for specific cancer types, overall cancer incidence, survival, and mortality were comparable between Dutch and Belgian children and young adolescents in 2010-2015. Variability in screening, diagnosis, and registration practices probably explains the observed differences in incidence and survival of neuroblastoma and malignant CNS tumors.

Histology-specific standardized incidence ratio improves the estimation of second primary lung cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer (LC) survivors are at increased risk for developing a second primary cancer (SPC) compared to the general population. While this risk is particularly high for smoking-related SPCs, the published standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer after lung cancer is unexpectedly low in countries that follow international multiple primary (IARC/IACR MP) rules when compared to the USA, where distinct rules are employed. IARC/IACR rules rely on histology-dependent documentation of SPC with the same location as the first cancer and only classify an SPC when tumors present different histology. Thus, SIR might be underestimated in cancer registries using these rules. This study aims to assess whether using histology-specific reference rates for calculating SIR improves risk estimates for second primary lung cancer (SPLC) in LC survivors. METHODS: We (i) use the distribution of histologic subtypes of LC in population-based cancer registry data of 11 regional cancer registries from Germany to present evidence that the conventional SIR metric underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors in registries that use IARC/IACR MP rules, (ii) present updated risk estimates for SPLC in Germany using a novel method to calculate histological subtype-specific SIRs, and (iii) validate this new method using US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program) data, where different MP rules are applied. RESULTS: The adjusted relative risk for lung cancer survivors in Germany to develop an SPLC was 2.98 (95% CI 2.53-3.49) for females and 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.27) for males using the novel histology-specific SIR. When using IARC/IACR MP rules, the conventional SIR underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors by approximately 30% for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed histology-specific method makes the SIR metric more robust against MP rules and, thus, more suitable for cross-country comparisons.

Cut-Offs for Disease Activity States in Axial Spondyloarthritis With Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) Based on C-Reactive Protein and ASDAS Based on Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate: Are They Interchangeable?

OBJECTIVE: Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (ASDAS-CRP) is recommended over ASDAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASDAS-ESR) to assess disease activity in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Although ASDAS-CRP and ASDAS-ESR are not interchangeable, the same disease activity cut-offs are used for both. We aimed to estimate optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs (1.3, 2.1, and 3.5) and investigate the potential improvement of level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states when applying these estimated cut-offs. METHODS: We used data from patients with axSpA from 9 European registries initiating a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. ASDAS-ESR cut-offs were estimated using the Youden index. The level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states was compared against each other. RESULTS: In 3664 patients, mean ASDAS-CRP was higher than ASDAS-ESR at both baseline (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) and aggregated follow-up at 6, 12, or 24 months (1.9 and 1.8, respectively). The estimated ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs were 1.4, 1.9, and 3.3. By applying these cut-offs, the proportion of discordance between disease activity states according to ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP decreased from 22.93% to 19.81% in baseline data but increased from 27.17% to 28.94% in follow-up data. CONCLUSION: We estimated the optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-off values. However, applying the estimated cut-offs did not increase the level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states to a relevant degree. Our findings did not provide evidence to reject the established cut-off values for ASDAS-ESR.

Competence of radiologists in cardiac CT and MR imaging in Europe: insights from the ESCR Registry.

RATIONALE: To provide an overview of the current status of cardiac multimodality imaging practices in Europe and radiologist involvement using data from the European Society of Cardiovascular Radiology (ESCR) MRCT-registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Numbers on cardiac CT and MRI examinations were extracted from the MRCT-registry of the ESCR, entered between January 2011 and October 2023 (n = 432,265). Data collection included the total/annual numbers of examinations, indications, complications, and reporting habits. RESULTS: Thirty-two countries contributed to the MRCT-registry, including 29 European countries. Between 2011 and 2022, there was a 4.5-fold increase in annually submitted CT examinations, from 3368 to 15,267, and a 3.8-fold increase in MRI examinations, from 3445 to 13,183. The main indications for cardiac CT were suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) (59%) and transcatheter aortic valve replacement planning (21%). The number of patients with intermediate pretest probability who underwent CT for suspected CAD showed an increase from 61% in 2012 to 82% in 2022. The main MRI indications were suspected myocarditis (26%), CAD (21%), and suspected cardiomyopathy (19%). Adverse event rates were very low for CT (0.3%) and MRI (0.7%) examinations. Reporting of CT and MRI examinations was performed mainly by radiologists (respectively 76% and 71%) and, to a lesser degree, in consensus with non-radiologists (19% and 27%, respectively). The remaining examinations (4.9% CT and 1.7% MRI) were reported by non-radiological specialties or in separate readings of radiologists and non-radiologists. CONCLUSIONS: Real-life data on cardiac imaging in Europe using the largest available MRCT-registry demonstrate a considerable increase in examinations over the past years, the vast majority of which are read by radiologists. These findings indicate that radiologists contribute to meeting the increasing demands of competent and effective care in cardiac imaging to a relevant extent. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The number of cardiac CT and MRI examinations has risen over the past years, and radiologists read the vast majority of these studies as recorded in the MRCT-registry. KEY POINTS: • The number of cardiac imaging examinations is constantly increasing. • Radiologists play a central role in providing cardiac CT and MR imaging services to a large volume of patients. • Cardiac CT and MR imaging examinations performed and read by radiologists show a good safety profile.

Mediation analysis using incomplete information from publicly available data sources.

Our work was motivated by the question whether, and to what extent, well-established risk factors mediate the racial disparity observed for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the United States. Mediation analysis examines the relationships between an exposure, a mediator and an outcome. All available methods require access to a single complete data set with these three variables. However, because population-based studies usually include few non-White participants, these approaches have limited utility in answering our motivating question. Recently, we developed novel methods to integrate several data sets with incomplete information for mediation analysis. These methods have two limitations: (i) they only consider a single mediator and (ii) they require a data set containing individual-level data on the mediator and exposure (and possibly confounders) obtained by independent and identically distributed sampling from the target population. Here, we propose a new method for mediation analysis with several different data sets that accommodates complex survey and registry data, and allows for multiple mediators. The proposed approach yields unbiased causal effects estimates and confidence intervals with nominal coverage in simulations. We apply our method to data from U.S. cancer registries, a U.S.-population-representative survey and summary level odds-ratio estimates, to rigorously evaluate what proportion of the difference in CRC risk between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks is mediated by three potentially modifiable risk factors (CRC screening history, body mass index, and regular aspirin use).

Simultaneous split liver/kidney transplantation: A national and single center experience report.

BACKGROUND: End-stage liver disease (ESLD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are prevalent diseases for which the definitive treatment is transplantation. With limited organ supply, strategies to maximize organ availability has led to increasing rates of split liver transplantations for ESLD patients. Therefore, simultaneous split liver and kidney transplantations (SSLK) for patients with ESLD and ESRD could represent a treatment option for comorbid patients. However, current practice and outcomes after SSLK are unknown. METHODS: We aim to report national trends and our experience with patients undergoing SSLK. We performed a retrospective review of the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Standard Transplant Analysis and Research file from January 2011-April 2022. Descriptive analysis of preoperative characteristics, postoperative outcomes and actuarial graft and patient survivals are reported. RESULTS: National review of the UNOS transplant registry from 2011-2021 of adult patients undergoing initial transplantation via SSLK demonstrates that this procedure remains uncommon, with only 76 such cases captured in that time. Nevertheless, survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years remains robust, at 94%, 92%, and 90% for patients overall, 90%, 88%, 88%, for the liver graft, and 93%, 91%, 88% for the kidney graft, respectively. Review of a single center experience with three such patients from 2019-2021 has shown a safe, enduring transplant option with no graft complications seen. CONCLUSIONS: SSLK is both safe and a feasible option to optimize organ supply while allowing recipients to receive quality liver and kidney grafts and should be considered more often by transplant centers going forward.

Framework for personalized prediction of treatment response in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a replication study in independent data.

BACKGROUND: Individualizing and optimizing treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients is a challenging problem, which would benefit from a clinically valid decision support. Stühler et al. presented black box models for this aim which were developed and internally evaluated in a German registry but lacked external validation. METHODS: In patients from the French OFSEP registry, we independently built and validated models predicting being free of relapse and free of confirmed disability progression (CDP), following the methodological roadmap and predictors reported by Stühler. Hierarchical Bayesian models were fit to predict the outcomes under 6 disease-modifying treatments given the individual disease course up to the moment of treatment change. Data was temporally split on 2017, and models were developed in patients treated earlier (n = 5517). Calibration curves, discrimination, mean squared error (MSE) and relative percentage of root MSE (RMSE%) were assessed by external validation of models in more-recent patients (n = 3768). Non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLMs were also applied and their outcomes were compared to these of the Bayesian ones. For both, we modelled the number of on-therapy relapses with a negative binomial distribution, and CDP occurrence with a binomial distribution. RESULTS: The performance of our temporally-validated relapse model (MSE: 0.326, C-Index: 0.639) is potentially superior to that of Stühler's (MSE: 0.784, C-index: 0.608). Calibration plots revealed miscalibration. Our CDP model (MSE: 0.072, C-Index: 0.777) was also better than its counterpart (MSE: 0.131, C-index: 0.554). Results from non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLM models were similar to the Bayesian ones. CONCLUSIONS: The relapse and CDP models rebuilt and externally validated in independent data could compare and strengthen the credibility of the Stühler models. Their model-building strategy was replicable.

The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy across socioeconomic groups in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Denmark was one of the few countries that experienced an increase in life expectancy in 2020, and one of the few to see a decrease in 2021. Because COVID-19 mortality is associated with socioeconomic status (SES), we hypothesize that certain subgroups of the Danish population experienced changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 that differed from the country overall. We aim to quantify life expectancy in Denmark in 2020 and 2021 by SES and compare this to recent trends in life expectancy (2014-2019). METHODS: We used Danish registry data from 2014 to 2021 for all individuals aged 30+. We classified the study population into SES groups using income quartiles and calculated life expectancy at age 30 by year, sex, and SES, and the differences in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021. We compared these changes to the average 1-year changes from 2014 to 2019 with 95% confidence intervals. Lastly, we decomposed these changes by age and cause of death distinguishing seven causes, including COVID-19, and a residual category. RESULTS: We observed a mortality gradient in life expectancy changes across SES groups in both pandemic years. Among women, those of higher SES experienced a larger increase in life expectancy in 2020 and a smaller decrease in 2021 compared to those of lower SES. Among men, those of higher SES experienced an increase in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, while those of lower SES experienced a decrease in 2021. The impact of COVID-19 mortality on changes in life expectancy in 2020 was counterbalanced by improvements in non-COVID-19 mortality, especially driven by cancer and cardiovascular mortality. However, in 2021, non-COVID-19 mortality contributed negatively even for causes as cardiovascular mortality that has generally a positive impact on life expectancy changes, resulting in declines for most SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 mortality disproportionally affected those of lower SES and exacerbated existing social inequalities in Denmark. We conclude that in health emergencies, particular attention should be paid to those who are least socially advantaged to avoid widening the already existing mortality gap with those of higher SES. This research contributes to the discussion on social inequalities in mortality in high-income countries.

Two-Year Clinical Outcome of MitraClip Transcatheter Edge-to-Edge Repair From the J-MITRA Registry Data.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of transcatheter edge-to-edge repair for moderate-to-severe or severe mitral regurgitation (MR) utilizing the MitraClip system became reimbursed and clinically accessible in Japan in April 2018. This study presents the 2-year clinical outcomes of all consecutively treated patients who underwent MitraClip implantation in Japan and were prospectively enrolled in the Japanese Circulation Society-oriented J-MITRA registry.Methods and Results: Analysis encompassed 2,739 consecutive patients enrolled in the J-MITRA registry with informed consent (mean age: 78.3±9.6 years, 1,550 males, STS risk score 11.7±8.9), comprising 1,999 cases of functional MR, 644 of degenerative MR and 96 in a mixed group (DMR and FMR). The acute procedure success rate was 88.9%. After MitraClip implantation, >80% exhibited an MR grade ≤2+ and the trend was sustained over the 2 years. Within this observation period, the mortality rate was 19.3% and the rate of heart failure readmissions was 20.6%. The primary composite endpoint, inclusive of cardiovascular death and heart failure readmission, was significantly higher in patients with functional MR than in with degenerative MR (32.0% vs. 17.5%, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The 2-year clinical outcomes after MitraClip implantation were deduced from comprehensive data within an all-Japan registry.

Definitive radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Japan: analysis of cases in the National Head and Neck Cancer Registry from 2011 to 2014.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze the nationwide prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma who underwent definitive radiotherapy in Japan, utilizing the National Head and Neck Cancer Registry data. METHODS: A total of 741 patients diagnosed with primary nasopharyngeal carcinoma were screened from 2011 to 2014. The inclusion criteria were histologically proven nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, receiving definitive radiotherapy, and no distant metastases. Patients with unclear prognoses or unknown staging were excluded. The primary endpoint was 5-year overall survival, and secondary endpoints were 5-year progression-free survival and survival by stage. RESULTS: A total of 457 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 60 years, and 80% were male. The proportions of patients with performance status 0, 1, 2 and 3 were 69, 10, 1 and 1%, respectively. Chemoradiotherapy was administered to 84.7%. Radiotherapy modalities were recorded only for 29 patients (three received intensity-modulated radiotherapy and 26 received two/three-dimensional radiotherapy). Of those included, 7.4, 24.7, 35.7, 24.5 and 7.7% had Stage I, II, III, IVA and IVB disease, respectively. The 5-year overall survival was 72.5% for all patients: 82.6, 86.6, 76.0, 51.4 and 66.5% for Stage I, II, III, IVA and IVB disease, respectively. The 5-year progression-free survival was 58.6%: 75.6, 66.8, 61.5, 43.7 and 46.5% for Stage I, II, III, IVA and IVB disease, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide survey demonstrated favorable prognoses and provided valuable foundational data for similar future surveys to monitor the penetration of appropriate treatment and changes in clinical structures based on new evidence.

The prevalence and comorbidity of mental health and substance use disorders in Scandinavian prisons 2010-2019: a multi-national register study.

BACKGROUND: Mental health disorders are common among people in prison, but their prevalence in the Scandinavian prison population remain unclear. In this multinational register study, we examined the prevalence of mental health disorders and the comorbidity of substance use disorders (SUDs) with other mental health disorders in this population. Further, we investigated how the prevalence of mental disorders at prison entry had changed in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden over the study period. METHODS: The three study cohorts included all individuals, aged 19 or older, whom had been imprisoned in Norway (2010-2019), Denmark (2011-2018), and Sweden (2010-2013). Mental disorders were defined as ICD-10 diagnoses (F-codes) registered in the national patient registers. The study prevalence was estimated based on recorded diagnoses during the entire study follow-up period in each respective country. The one-year prevalence of mental disorders was estimated for each calendar year for individuals entering prison during that year. RESULTS: The Scandinavian prison cohorts included 119 507 individuals released 191 549 times during the study period. Across all three countries a high proportion of both women (61.3%-74.4%) and men (49.6%-57.9%) had at least one mental health disorder during the observation period. The most prevalent disorders were SUDs (39.1%-44.0%), depressive disorder (8.1%-17.5%), and stress related disorder (8.8%-17.1%). Women (31.8%-41.1%) had higher levels of mental health and substance use comorbidities compared to men (20.8%-27.6%). The one-year prevalence of any mental health disorder increased over time with a 33% relative increase in Norway, 8% in Denmark, and 10% in Sweden. The proportion of individuals entering prison with a comorbid SUD and other mental disorder had also increased. CONCLUSIONS: While the incarceration rate has been decreasing during the past decade in the Scandinavian countries, an increasing proportion of people entering prison have a diagnosed mental health disorder. Our results suggest that prisons should provide adequate treatment and scale up services to accommodate the increasing proportion of people with complex health needs among incarcerated people.

Disability level and use of long-term care services in Norway: a nation-wide registry study.

AIMS: In Norway, disability level is an important criterion when deciding the type and level of long-term care services. Each care recipient can be scored on 20 different disability level measures. Our aims were to investigate completeness in disability level information in the Norwegian Registry of Primary Health Care (NRPHC), to group disability level measures into meaningful groups, and to study the relationship between grouped disability scores and the type of services received. METHODS: We retrieved information on type of care and disability level from the NRPHC on individuals who received long-term care services in 2022. Type of care was divided into hierarchical and mutually exclusive groups, with long-term institutional care as the most complex service group. We used principal components analysis to summarise and visualise the information in the 20 different disability level measures, and to create grouped scores. RESULTS: A total of 386,697 persons aged 0-104 years were registered as recipients of long-term care services in Norway on 31 December 2022. Information on disability measures were of high completeness (72.4 % of the population were registered with all 20 measures) but was lower for younger age groups in which the number of recipients was lower. Principal components analyses identified two groups of measures, which we termed physical and cognitive functioning. Physical and cognitive functioning were poorest for individuals receiving the most complex and extensive services. CONCLUSIONS: NRPHC disability data are reasonably complete, the 20 measures readily fall into two distinct categories, and seem to reflect real life differences in disability.

The use of the Core Yellow Flags Index for the assessment of psychosocial distress in patients undergoing surgery of the cervical spine.

BACKGROUND: Psychosocial distress (the presence of yellow flags) has been linked to poor outcomes in spine surgery. The Core Yellow Flags Index (CYFI), a short instrument assessing the 4 main yellow flags, was developed for use in patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery. This study evaluated its ability to predict outcome in patients undergoing cervical spine surgery. METHODS: Patients with degenerative spinal disorders (excluding myelopathy) operated in one centre, from 2015 to 2019, were asked to complete the CYFI at baseline and the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) at baseline and 3 and 12 months after surgery. The relationship between CYFI and COMI scores at baseline as well as the predictive ability of the CYFI on the COMI follow-up scores were tested using structural equation modelling. RESULTS: From 731 eligible patients, 547 (61.0 ± 12.5 years; 57.2% female) completed forms at all three timepoints. On a cross-sectional basis, preoperative CYFI and COMI scores were highly correlated (ß = 0.54, in men and 0.51 in women; each p < 0.001). CYFI added significantly and independently to the prediction of COMI at 3 months' FU in men (ß = 0.36) and 12 months' FU in men and women (both ß = 0.20) (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The CYFI had a low to moderate but significant and independent association with cervical spine surgery outcomes. Implementing the CYFI in the preoperative workup of these patients could help refine outcome predictions and better manage patient expectations.

Associations between outpatient care and later hospital admissions for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - a registry study from Norway.

BACKGROUND: Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) admissions put a substantial burden on hospitals, most of the patients' contacts with health services are in outpatient care. Traditionally, outpatient care has been difficult to capture in population-based samples. In this study we describe outpatient service use in COPD patients and assess associations between outpatient care (contact frequency and specific factors) and next-year COPD hospital admissions or 90-day readmissions. METHODS: Patients over 40 years of age residing in Oslo or Trondheim at the time of contact in the period 2009-2018 were identified from the Norwegian Patient Registry (in- and outpatient hospital contacts, rehabilitation) and the KUHR registry (contacts with GPs, contract specialists and physiotherapists). These were linked to the Regular General Practitioner registry (characteristics of the GP practice), long-term care data (home and institutional care, need for assistance), socioeconomic and-demographic data from Statistics Norway and the Cause of Death registry. Negative binomial models were applied to study associations between combinations of outpatient care, specific care factors and next-year COPD hospital admissions and 90-day readmissions. The sample consisted of 24,074 individuals. RESULTS: A large variation in the frequency and combination of outpatient service use for respiratory diagnoses (GP, emergency room, physiotherapy, contract specialist and outpatient hospital contacts) was apparent. GP and outpatient hospital contact frequency were strongly associated to an increased number of next-year hospital admissions (1.2-3.2 times higher by increasing GP frequency when no outpatient hospital contacts, 2.4-5 times higher in combination with outpatient hospital contacts). Adjusted for healthcare use, comorbidities and sociodemographics, outpatient care factors associated with lower numbers of next-year hospitalisations were fees indicating interaction between providers (7% reduction), spirometry with GP or specialist (7%), continuity of care with GP (15%), and GP follow-up (8%) or rehabilitation (18%) within 30 days vs. later following any current year hospitalisations. For 90-day readmissions results were less evident, and most variables were non-significant. CONCLUSION: As increased use of outpatient care was strongly associated with future hospitalisations, this further stresses the need for good communication between providers when coordinating care for COPD patients. The results indicated possible benefits of care continuity within and interaction between providers.

Inability to Work Fulltime and the Association with Paid Employment One Year After the Work Disability Assessment: A Longitudinal Register-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Disability benefit applicants with residual work capacity are often not able to work fulltime. In Dutch work disability benefit assessments, the inability to work fulltime is an important outcome, indicating the number of hours the applicant can sustain working activities per day. This study aims to gain insight into the association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year after the assessment. METHODS: The study is a longitudinal register-based cohort study of work disability applicants who were granted a partial disability benefit (n = 8300). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year after the assessment, separately for working and non-working applicants. RESULTS: For disability benefit applicants, whether working (31.9%) or not working (68.1%) at the time of the disability assessment, there was generally no association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year later. However, for working applicants diagnosed with a musculoskeletal disease or cancer, inability to work fulltime was positively and negatively associated with having paid employment, respectively. For non-working applicants with a respiratory disease or with multimorbidity, inability to work fulltime was negatively associated with paid employment. CONCLUSIONS: Inability to work fulltime has limited association with paid employment 1 year after the disability benefit assessment, regardless of the working status at the time of assessment. However, within certain disease groups, inability to work fulltime can either increase or decrease the odds of having paid employment after the assessment.

Impact of cancer and other causes of death on mortality of cancer patients: A study based on Japanese population-based registry data.

Cancer registry data provide a very important source of information for improving our understanding of the epidemiology of various cancers. In this work, we estimated the 5-year crude probabilities of death from cancer and from other causes for five common cancers, namely stomach, lung, colon-rectum, prostate and breast, in Japan, using population-based registry data. Based on data on 344 676 patients diagnosed with one of these cancers between 2006 and 2008 in 21 prefectures participating in the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) and followed-up for at least 5 years, we used a flexible excess hazard model to compute the crude probabilities of death for different combinations of sex, age and stage at diagnosis. For tumours diagnosed at the distant stage, as well as for regional lung tumours, the vast majority of deaths at 5 years in cancer patients were attributable to the disease itself (although this proportion was only around 60% in older prostate cancer patients). For localised and most regional tumours, the impact of other causes of death on the total mortality increased with age at diagnosis, especially for localised breast, colorectal and gastric cancer. By allowing the partition of the mortality experience of cancer patients into a cancer- and an other-cause-specific component, crude probability of death estimates provide insight into how the impact of cancer on mortality might differ among populations with different background mortality risks. This might be useful for informing discussions between clinicians and patients about treatment options.

Second primary cancer among 217702 colorectal cancer survivors: An analysis of national German cancer registry data.

With improvements in survival after colorectal cancer (CRC), more survivors are at risk of developing a second cancer, particularly in younger populations where CRC incidence is increasing. We estimated the incidence of second primary cancer (SPC) in CRC survivors and its potential risk factors. We identified CRC cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and SPCs until 2013 from nine German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER) per 10 000 person-years were calculated and were stratified by index site: colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), age and sex. Cox regression assessed potential SPC risk factors, including primary tumor-related therapy considering death as a competing risk. We included 217 202 primary CRC cases. SPC occurred in 18 751 CRC survivors (8.6%; median age: 69 years). Risk of cancer was significantly higher in CRC survivors than in the general population (SIR males 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.17, AER = 24.7; SIR females 1.20, 95% CI 1.17-1.23, AER = 22.8). Increased risks of SPCs were observed for the digestive system, urinary system and female and male reproductive organs. CRC incidence increased in younger persons (<50 years) and SPC incidence was 4-fold in this group (SIR males 4.51, 95% CI 4.04-5.01, AER = 64.2; SIR females 4.03, 95% CI 3.62-4.48, AER = 77.0). Primary tumor-related factors associated with SPC risk were right-sided cancer and smaller primary tumor size. Treatment and risk of SPC differed for CC (no effect) and RC (lower risk after chemotherapy). CRC survivors have excess risk of developing SPC, with particular characteristics that could guide targeted surveillance.

Joint frailty modeling of time-to-event data to elicit the evolution pathway of events: a generalized linear mixed model approach.

Multimorbidity constitutes a serious challenge on the healthcare systems in the world, due to its association with poorer health-related outcomes, more complex clinical management, increases in health service utilization and costs, but a decrease in productivity. However, to date, most evidence on multimorbidity is derived from cross-sectional studies that have limited capacity to understand the pathway of multimorbid conditions. In this article, we present an innovative perspective on analyzing longitudinal data within a statistical framework of survival analysis of time-to-event recurrent data. The proposed methodology is based on a joint frailty modeling approach with multivariate random effects to account for the heterogeneous risk of failure and the presence of informative censoring due to a terminal event. We develop a generalized linear mixed model method for the efficient estimation of parameters. We demonstrate the capacity of our approach using a real cancer registry data set on the multimorbidity of melanoma patients and document the relative performance of the proposed joint frailty model to the natural competitor of a standard frailty model via extensive simulation studies. Our new approach is timely to advance evidence-based knowledge to address increasingly complex needs related to multimorbidity and develop interventions that are most effective and viable to better help a large number of individuals with multiple conditions.