Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape.

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics.

A quantitative framework for identifying the role of individual species in Nature's Contributions to People.

It is widely acknowledged that biodiversity change is affecting human well-being by altering the supply of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Nevertheless, the role of individual species in this relationship remains obscure. In this article, we present a framework that combines the cascade model from ecosystem services research with network theory from community ecology. This allows us to quantitatively link NCP demanded by people to the networks of interacting species that underpin them. We show that this "network cascade" framework can reveal the number, identity and importance of the individual species that drive NCP and of the environmental conditions that support them. This information is highly valuable in demonstrating the importance of biodiversity in supporting human well-being and can help inform the management of biodiversity in social-ecological systems.

Climate shock effects and mediation in fisheries.

Climate shocks can reorganize the social-ecological linkages in food-producing communities, leading to a sudden loss of key products in food systems. The extent and persistence of this reorganization are difficult to observe and summarize, but are critical aspects of predicting and rapidly assessing community vulnerability to extreme events. We apply network analysis to evaluate the impact of a climate shock-an unprecedented marine heatwave-on patterns of resource use in California fishing communities, which were severely affected through closures of the Dungeness crab fishery. The climate shock significantly modified flows of users between fishery resources during the closures. These modifications were predicted by pre-shock patterns of resource use and were associated with three strategies used by fishing community member vessels to respond to the closures: temporary exit from the food system, spillover of effort from the Dungeness crab fishery into other fisheries, and spatial shifts in where crab were landed. Regional differences in resource use patterns and vessel-level responses highlighted the Dungeness crab fishery as a seasonal "gilded trap" for northern California fishing communities. We also detected disparities in climate shock response based on vessel size, with larger vessels more likely to display spatial mobility. Our study demonstrates the importance of highly connected and decentralized networks of resource use in reducing the vulnerability of human communities to climate shocks.

Moving from ecological impacts to social vulnerability in data-scarce places.

Managers need to trace social impacts and vulnerability caused by environmental change all the way to its driving forces to target key system components for intervention. However, most available scientific evidence deals with either the ecological impacts of direct drivers or the value of ecosystem benefits to people. Our matrix-based tool combines these types of evidence to make environmental management problems traceable through a structured yet flexible procedure. The tool consists of a series of matrices that sequentially link direct drivers of environmental change, landscapes, ecological conditions, benefits to people, and stakeholder types. Qualitative matrices result from the integration and synthesis of available evidence from literature reviews, and where data is scarce, these are used to elicit quantitative scores from expert opinion. Expert scoring of links and multiplication of matrices allow for estimating the impacts of each driver of environmental change on each stakeholder type and using this information as input to assess stakeholders' vulnerability through impact-influence diagrams. Applying the tool to the Argentine Gran Chaco, a globally threatened ecoregion, yielded a transparent and reliable picture of this data-scarce place, with important management implications. Tracing stakeholder impacts back to direct drivers confirmed that further encroachment of cleared areas around indigenous lands will increase the vulnerability of this social group. Also, assessing confidence levels for every social-ecological link suggested that incentivizing peasant farmers to restore natural forage supply represents a management opportunity to reverse degradation. Our tool makes interdisciplinary frameworks of linked ecological and social systems operational so managers can use the best available knowledge of a place and account for uncertainty to make environmental management decisions.

The impact of cross-regional social and ecological interactions on ecosystem service synergies.

Increasing socioecological systems (SESs) sustainability requires establishing a reasonable cross-regional social and ecological interaction. In this study, we examine how cross-regional ecological and social interactions affect synergistic effects. Using InVEST and correlation analysis with data from 2010 through 2020, we assessed ESs (i.e., water retention-WR, nutrient retention-NR, and carbon storage-CS) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. A small watershed, a river network, and settlement development capacity are used to delineate ecological and social interactions units. Based on a Bayesian network model that considers population, economy, and spatial agglomeration patterns between social units, we assessed the potential for achieving a synergistic improvement of ESs and the driving forces behind them. The results show that ESs in the BTH region compete, only a small percentage (6.38%) shows synergetic improvement across CS, WR, and NR. It is beneficial for upstream watersheds to retain water and nutrients, but to maintain carbon storage they may sacrifice water retention. Upstream areas with less development and higher vegetation density have better ecosystem integrity of up- and down-stream watersheds, and can be enhanced with minimal human impact, as social interactions and settlement spatial structures influence ES synergies. There is a higher risk for ecological issues in downstream areas, but greater awareness and collaboration can lead to better ES synergies.

Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea.

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Multiple social and environmental factors affect wildland fire response of full or less-than-full suppression.

Wildland fire incident commanders make wildfire response decisions within an increasingly complex socio-environmental context. Threats to human safety and property, along with public pressures and agency cultures, often lead commanders to emphasize full suppression. However, commanders may use less-than-full suppression to enhance responder safety, reduce firefighting costs, and encourage beneficial effects of fire. This study asks: what management, socioeconomic, environmental, and fire behavior characteristics are associated with full suppression and the less-than-full suppression methods of point-zone protection, confinement/containment, and maintain/monitor? We analyzed incident report data from 374 wildfires in the United States northern Rocky Mountains between 2008 and 2013. Regression models showed that full suppression was most strongly associated with higher housing density and earlier dates in the calendar year, along with non-federal land jurisdiction, regional and national incident management teams, human-caused ignitions, low fire-growth potential, and greater fire size. Interviews with commanders provided decision-making context for these regression results. Future efforts to encourage less-than-full suppression should address the complex management context, in addition to the biophysical context, of fire response.

The Role of Social License in Non-Industrial Marine and Coastal Planning: a Scoping Review.

Marine and coastal environments are diverse and dynamic, supporting competing human interests and demands. As society seeks to balance contested uses of space, more holistic planning processes have emerged, which consider social, economic, and ecological factors. One approach that considers social factors, and more specifically social acceptance, is "social license to operate" (SLO). Originating in the terrestrial mining industry, SLO has been adopted by various marine industries. Except for some emerging work in the conservation field, SLO is typically applied to industrial marine and coastal contexts. To understand SLO's uses in other marine and coastal planning contexts, namely conservation, adaptation, and restoration, we conducted a scoping review using the term SLO and similar concepts, including public or social acceptance, support, and buy-in. Results indicate the concept of SLO is still emerging in non-industrial marine and coastal planning, with an emphasis on gaining public acceptance rather than maintaining it. The concept of SLO was applied broadly, including as a measurement for public support and a product of effective engagement. Most publications focused on barriers and drivers of SLO. Influential factors are identified and organized by theme, then discussed based on their relationships within a social-ecological system framework. Considering the common factors and their associated systems helps to link elements necessary to obtain SLO, highlighting their interconnectedness with each other, society, and the natural environment. The findings of this review illustrate SLO's utility for academics and practitioners alike, through its application in methods, tools, values, and concepts that characterize public inclusion for marine and coastal planning.

Land cover diversity: Reshaping the socioeconomic value of land.

The land is a vital resource to support economic growth. Previous studies have mainly taken urban and agricultural areas as the major factors of economic boost. However, the supporting role of diversified land in sustainable economy has not been fully valued. This study analyzed the relationship between land cover diversity and socioeconomic outputs from 1992 to 2019 on up to 2086 counties in China. The results showed the regional disparity in the eastern and western counties. In the western counties, land cover diversity was positively correlated with per area socioeconomic indicators throughout the period. In the eastern counties, the correlation with per area indicators has gradually changed from negative to positive. The correlation with per capita indicators was more significant in the east than west. The regional disparity and temporal trends may come from the influence of water resources, demographic pressure and other constraints in different regions. The refreshed land value can help to achieve sustainable development and improve human well-being in the long term.

Tracking Pathways to Recovery from Climate Shocks and Resilience Enhancement.

Climate change is increasingly becoming a threat to a wide range of community livelihoods in the agro-pastoral systems across scales. Hence, recovery from impacts caused by climate change requires rational decisions, particularly how resources and activities can be mobilized to enhance resilience. In this paper, we track pathways to recovery from such climate shocks in the agro-pastoral systems in three villages; Naitolia, MwakiniJuu and MswakiniChini in northern Tanzania. A mixed methods approach was used that entailed 120 questionnaire respondents and three focus group discussion sessions, one in each village. Our findings show that livelihood assets and activities are inadequate to buffer the impacts of climate change. Despite rules and regulations that guide resource utilization; communities will continue facing climate related impacts. This is due to inherent cultural dispositions that hinder transformation from one form of livelihood assets to the other. This restricts the reception of new frontiers of experiential knowledge that would allow for livelihood diversification outside the climate dependence scenario even after the occurrence of climate hazards. We argue that any attempt of building the resilience of any social-ecological system must consider the cultural backgrounds of the communities in which resilience building is sought.

Do adaptive policy adjustments deliver ecosystem-agriculture-economy co-benefits in land degradation neutrality efforts? Evidence from southeast coast of China.

Ecosystem restoration projects (ERPs) facilitate land degradation neutrality (LDN). However, the response dynamics and interactions of sectors within ecosystem-agriculture-economy nexus (EAEN) have not been sufficiently explored, which constrains the coordinated efficacy of LDN efforts. To bridge the knowledge gaps, the present study selected a land restoration hotspot in southeastern China as a case to investigate the simultaneous responses of the EAEN sectors to ERPs from a novel social-ecological system (SES)-based LDN perspective. Various biophysical models and Manne-Kendall trend test as well as multi-source spatially explicit data and socioeconomic statistics were applied to quantify the co-evolution of natural and socioeconomic indicators. ERPs converting cropland to woodland and grassland promoted vegetation restoration, reduced soil erosion, and enhanced carbon sequestration. However, cropland loss initially resulted in a decline in grain productivity. Policy adjustments and improvements in ecosystem restoration efforts and agricultural production conditions improved food security and increased agricultural production capacity. Effective policymaking and favorable resident engagement accelerated the transformation from a grain-production-based agriculture to diversified industries and, by extension, economic output, income, and population. The success of socioeconomic development under the SES framework for LDN demonstrated that this strategy could achieve the desired environmental, agricultural, and economic targets. EAEN under the SES conceptual framework provides an inclusive, comprehensive LDN perspective and improves ERP efficacy. The findings of the present work might be applicable to other land restoration areas challenged by the complex interactions among multidimensional factors. Comparably successful implementation of these ERPs could be realized if individual environmental and socioeconomic conditions are thoroughly considered during the formulation of coordinated development policies.

Stochasticity-induced persistence in coupled social-ecological systems.

Stochasticity is often associated with negative consequences for population dynamics since a population may die out due to random chance during periods when population size is very low (stochastic fade-out). Here we develop a coupled social-ecological model based on stochastic differential equations that includes natural expansion and harvesting of a forest ecosystem, and dynamics of conservation opinions, social norms and social learning in a human population. Our objective was to identify mechanisms that influence long-term persistence of the forest ecosystem in the presence of noise. We found that most of the model parameters had a significant influence on the time to extinction of the forest ecosystem. Increasing the social learning rate and the net benefits of conservation significantly increased the time to extinction, for instance. Most interestingly, we found a parameter regime where an increase in the amount of system stochasticity caused an increase in the mean time to extinction, instead of causing stochastic fade-out. This effect occurs for a subset of realizations, but the effect is large enough to increase the mean time to extinction across all realizations. Such "stochasticity-induced persistence" occurs when stochastic dynamics in the social system generates benefits in the forest system at crucial points in its temporal dynamics. We conclude that studying relatively simple social-ecological models has the benefit of facilitating characterization of dynamical states and thereby enabling us to formulate new hypothesis about mechanisms that could be operating in empirical social-ecological systems.

Sixteen years of social and ecological dynamics reveal challenges and opportunities for adaptive management in sustaining the commons.

Efforts to confront the challenges of environmental change and uncertainty include attempts to adaptively manage social-ecological systems. However, critical questions remain about whether adaptive management can lead to sustainable outcomes for both ecosystems and society. Here, we make a contribution to these efforts by presenting a 16-y analysis of ecological outcomes and perceived livelihood impacts from adaptive coral reef management in Papua New Guinea. The adaptive management system we studied was a customary rotational fisheries closure system (akin to fallow agriculture), which helped to increase the biomass of reef fish and make fish less wary (more catchable) relative to openly fished areas. However, over time the amount of fish in openly fished reefs slowly declined. We found that, overall, resource users tended to have positive perceptions about this system, but there were negative perceptions when fishing was being prohibited. We also highlight some of the key traits of this adaptive management system, including 1) strong social cohesion, whereby leaders played a critical role in knowledge exchange; 2) high levels of compliance, which was facilitated via a "carrot-and-stick" approach that publicly rewarded good behavior and punished deviant behavior; and 3) high levels of participation by community actors.

Coordinating community resource use and conservation: An institutional diagnostic practice in the Wuyishan National Park.

Maintaining community resource use and securing ecosystem services for the public is a major issue in protected area management. This research developed an institutional diagnostic tool for community resource use based on the theories of "Common-Pool Resources", "Environment Entitlement" and "Socio-ecological System". This tool is maturing and tested in the Wuyishan National Park through a knowledge co-production process of communities' narratives and researchers' observations. It was used to identify key institutional factors that affect communities' ecosystem management, facilitate a negotiation procedure that can motivate communities' acceptance of new rules and participation in conservation, and provide policy entry points for sustaining both the ecosystem and rural livelihoods. Results show that key factors affecting resource accessibility mainly include land policy at the macro scale, protected area planning and management at the meso-scale, and the internalising of modern regulations and technologies with historical inheritance at the micro-scale. Key institutions affecting access to ecosystem services and well-being include mainly the formal institutions such as the market and credit system at the meso-scale, and informal institutions expressed by collective actions at the micro-scale. Results also indicate that local people mainly cared about the procedural legitimacy and their environmental autonomy for negotiation in the multi-stakeholder context. They required a reasonable and clear definition of resource use regulation, and low risks to join in a negotiation. By integrating the key institutions and negotiation demands, we provided the policy entry point to facilitate the institutional change in Wuyishan National Park. This diagnostic tool is proved applicable in the way of knowledge co-production, and it is promising to help formulate context-specific conservation policies to facilitate the community to participate in the construction and management of protected areas for win-win outcomes of the natural ecosystem and community welfare.

Modeling the resilient supply of ecosystem function for climate change adaptive management in Wetland City.

Rapid urbanization causes wetland ecosystem functions to degrade worldwide. This phenomenon negatively affects the resilience of ecosystem functions in the face of unexpected impacts, particularly climate change. An approach is required for combining resilience with management in a Wetland City. This study aims to model the resilience of ecosystem functions for climate change adaptation management in a Wetland City via system dynamics from 2021 to 2100. First, we set a system boundary through expert interviews to identify the main issues in the social-ecological system of a Wetland City. Second, we constructed a social-ecological system of a Wetland City that provides ecosystem function trade-offs between flood control and wildlife habitat provisioning. Then, we simulated the resilience of ecosystem functions according to different climate change adaptative management scenarios. Finally, we determined an appropriate scenario for minimizing the impacts of ecosystem function trade-offs reinforced by climate change. As a result, we recommend that the water level should be managed such that the controlled flood water level ranges from 12 to 14 m and that 30% of the willow areas should be thinned each year. Based on these simulation results, we proposed three climate change adaptive management strategies: considering long-term plans including short-term effects, networking with multiscale community participation, and applying sustainable wetland management to urban planning. Ultimately, this study can contribute to planning and management guidelines for a Wetland City.

Maintaining landholder satisfaction and management of private protected areas established under conservation agreements.

Permanent protection of biodiversity on private lands is achieved through various mechanisms around the world. In Australia, conservation covenants are widely used to dedicate private lands to biodiversity conservation. The permanency of covenants necessitates similarly long-term commitment by landholders to meet and maintain the conservation obligations under the covenant. To better understand the effectiveness of conservation covenants as a tool for on-going environmental stewardship, we examined the relationship between landholders' initial motivations to covenant, their current perspectives on covenants and their management practices. We compared two groups of covenantors, those who initiated a covenant (original signees) and those who acquired a property with a covenant already in place (successive owners). We found the motivations and views of original signees and successive owners were similar overall, showing strong pro-environmental perspectives, and the majority of landholders were continuing to undertake management activities for the benefit of biodiversity. A small portion of respondents were dissatisfied with the covenant mechanism or covenant provider. This group tended to include successive owners and landholders who covenanted for regulatory reasons or financial incentives. Fewer dissatisfied landholders were actively managing the covenanted land compared to those who were satisfied. Considering the impending increase in successive owners as aging covenantors transfer ownership of their properties, the growing potential for covenants required under regulatory arrangements, and decreasing support within covenanting programs, this study identifies a risk that the satisfaction of landholders may decrease over time. Recognizing and addressing the challenges faced by landholders can bolster the commitment to covenant obligations and the longevity of covenants as a mechanism for positive conservation outcomes.

An impact assessment tool to identify, quantify and select optimal social-economic, ecological and health outcomes of civic environmental management interventions, in Durban South Africa.

Using an environmental impact assessment (EIA) methodology, we provide a novel approach to identify and assess social-ecological outcomes from civic ecology interventions. We quantified the impact significance of six civic (community led) interventions implemented by the Wise Wayz Water Care (WWWC) local community programme (solid waste management, water quality monitoring, invasive alien plant control, crop production, recycling and community engagement), in two communities, situated in urban to peri-urban/rural environments in Durban, South Africa. Interventions resulted in 37 outcomes, of which 36 were positive and one negative. The resulting significance scores from the impact assessment allowed for interventions and their outcomes to be compared. The socio-economic outcomes were the greatest (21), followed by ecological (11) and health outcomes (6). Outcomes included access to education and training; improved quality of life; improved terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; increase in recreation and cultural uses of natural areas; reduced health risks and increased nutrition. The most significant ecological outcomes resulted from invasive alien plant control, followed by solid waste removal and water quality monitoring. The greatest health outcomes resulted from solid waste removal and vegetable gardens, whereas the greatest social-economic outcomes resulted from the general operation of WWWC, solid waste removal, and invasive alien plant control. We demonstrate that investments in natural areas can deliver not only on enhancements in ecosystems and their services, but also for local community socio-economic and health benefits. This study provides an intervention quantifying tool for practitioners to select optimal local management interventions, that can be aligned with desired outcomes related to specific community challenges and policy requirements. In so doing, this work shows the critical role that civic interventions play to ensure sustainability, and emphasises how social-ecological systems and ecosystem services perspectives can be used in practice towards achieving sustainable outcomes.

Coastal Land Use Management Methodologies under Pressure from Climate Change and Population Growth.

Throughout history, humans living in the coastal area constantly adapt to the natural environment and create a changing environment. The rapid coastal development occurred in the mid-19th century and peaks in the mid-20th century, which was a common process in most industrialized areas. With increasing population growth and urban sprawl, many coastal lowlands are unprecedently vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, increasing extreme storm events, and coastal flooding. Under the influence of urban revitalization and conservation, the landward shoreline movement accelerated and coastal land shrank, accompanied by community retreat. This research focuses on the importance of incorporating an understanding of the changing coastal land-ocean interaction into adaptive management strategies by illustrating the relationship of land use change, social-economic development, and climate change. Typical coastal changes in Connecticut were selected: New Haven Harbor reflects a dramatic seaward land accretion under industrial and transportation development, New London downtown waterfront reveals a trend of building retreat under industrial and commercial transformation and coastal hazard, New London Ocean Beach indicates how overdeveloped coastal low-lying community fully retreat after a natural disaster, and Jordan Cove barrier island shows a highly dynamic coastal land change and proactive management strategy. The results reveal that to cope with a constantly changing shoreline and the challenges of climate change, a resilient management process must incorporate a cycle of learning, experimenting, and creating with the goal of developing new solutions that are able to deal with our ever-changing environment.

Defining community revitalization in Great Lakes Areas of Concern and investigating how revitalization can be catalyzed through remediation and restoration.

An international effort to restore contaminated areas across the Great Lakes has been underway for over 50 years. Although experts have increasingly recognized the inherent connections between ecological conditions and community level benefits, Great Lakes community revitalization continues to be a broad and complex topic, lacking a comprehensive definition. The purpose of this study was to generate a testable "AOC-Revitalization Framework" for linking remediation and restoration success, represented by Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) removal in U.S. Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOC), to community revitalization. Using directed content analysis, we conducted a literature review and identified 433 potential revitalization metrics and indicators and grouped them into 15 broader community revitalization attributes to develop the following definition of Great Lakes community revitalization: "locally driven community resurgence resulting in resilient and equitable enhancements to social, economic, and environmental community structures." We surveyed experts within the Great Lakes AOC program on the likelihood remediation and restoration success, would positively impact revitalization attributes. Focus groups triangulated survey results. Results identified BUI removal was expected to positively affect revitalization, but the type of revitalization outcome was based on the BUI being removed. The AOC-Revitalization Framework is the first to empirically outline these possible linkages, providing a clear testable structure for future research; it can be used to better understand how environmental improvements are or are not leading to community revitalization and more accurately identify components of revitalization impacted, thus supporting more equitable representation, communication, and measurement of the relationship.

Comparison between best-response dynamics and replicator dynamics in a social-ecological model of lake eutrophication.

Social-ecological models are often used to investigate the mutual interactions between an ecological system and human behaviour at a collective level. The social system is widely represented either by the replicator dynamics or by the best-response dynamics. We investigate the consequences of choosing one or the other with the example of a social-ecological model for eutrophication in shallow lakes, where the anthropogenic discharge of pollutants into the water is determined by a behavioural model using the replicator or a best-response dynamics. We discuss a fundamental difference between the replicator dynamics and the logit formulation of the best-response dynamics. This fundamental difference results in a different number of equilibria. We show that the replicator equation is a limit case of the best-response model, when agents are assumed to behave with infinite rationality. If agents act less rationally in the model using the best-response dynamics, the correspondence with the model using the replicator dynamics decreases. Finally, we show that sustained oscillations observed in both cases may differ substantially. The replicator dynamics makes the amplitude of the limit cycle become larger and makes the system come closer to full cooperation or full defection. Thus, the dynamics along the limit cycle imply a different risk for the system to be pushed by a perturbation into a desirable or an undesirable outcome depending on the socioeconomic dynamics assumed in the model. When analyzing social-ecological models, the choice of a socioeconomic dynamics is often little justified but our results show that it may have dramatic impacts on the coupled human-environment system.