Virtual Water Embodied in Interregional Energy Trade in China: A City-Level Analysis.

Large volumes of water are used in energy production for both primary (e.g., fuel extraction) and secondary energy (e.g., electricity). In countries such as China, with a large internal trade in fuels and long-distance transmission grids, this can result in considerable water inequalities. Previous research focused on the water impacts of energy production at the national and provincial levels, which is too coarse to identify the spatial differences and make specific case studies. Here, we take the next step toward a spatially explicit economically integrated water-use for energy assessment by combining a bottom-up assessment approach with a city-level multiregional input-output model. Specifically, we examine the water consumption of energy production in China, distinguishing between water for primary and secondary energy at the level of coal mines, oil and gas fields, and power plants for the first time. Of the total energy-related freshwater consumption of 4.9 Gm3 in 2017, primary energy accounted for 19% (940 Mm3) and secondary energy accounted for 81% (3955 Mm3). Coal was the largest water consumer for both primary and secondary energy (540 and 3880 Mm3, respectively), with both oil (361, and 0.5 Mm3, respectively) and gas (7 and 69 Mm3, respectively) also consuming large amounts. Intercity virtual water, that is, water embodied in energy trade across cities, reached 54% (2.6 Gm3) of energy-related freshwater consumption. Across China, 32% of cities see a bilateral trade in secondary- and primary-energy-related virtual water (e.g., Daqing city exports virtual water embodied in primary fuel to other cities that is then used to produce electricity in those cities, part of which is used back in Daqing via transmission). For these 32% of cities, 73% export more virtual water than import and 27% import more virtual water than export. This study reveals significant differences in city-level virtual water patterns (e.g., scale and direction) between primary and secondary energy to provide information for cities about their virtual water inflow and outflow and the potential collaboration partners for water management.

The "Gravity" for global virtual water flows: From quantity and quality perspectives.

The virtual water trade (VWT) has been proposed as a means of balancing national water budgets while also saving water globally. Since humans require both sufficient quantity and quality of water, the drivers of VWT flows should be thoroughly examined, including its three components. Multiregional input-output (MRIO) and gravity methods are used to investigate the influence of multiple factors on the green, blue, and grey water trading flows among 177 countries in 2014. Several factors were found to be strongly correlated with the grey water trade, offering valuable insight into water resource management, especially about water pollution. The findings verify the driving effects of socio-economic status and agricultural activities on virtual water trade. The study shows that the influence of water resources endowment on the virtual water trade flow is relatively small compared to economic structure in determining virtual water trade flows. The paper contributes to the research on the interaction between virtual water trade and various factors, which can assist decision-makers in optimizing economic structure by integrating water quantity and quality factors and realize sustainable management of water resources.

Assessing the impact of food trade centric on land, water, and food security in South Korea.

The observed and predicted changes in climate, as well as the growth in urban population, are creating severe stress on existing water resources in South Korea. By the importation of agricultural products from more water-rich countries through the virtual water concept, a country could save local water resources for other important uses. However, these imports from other countries could lead to certain vulnerabilities in the importing country derived from climate change. Therefore, through the application of the virtual water concept and the climate vulnerability index ((CVI) - measure of a country's vulnerability to indirect climate impacts), this study assessed the implication of virtual water imports and climate change through food trade, on the water, land and food security status of South Korea over the period of 2000-2017. The results showed that significant amounts of national water and land was saved through the importation of major upland crops. Virtual water imports increased significantly over time, rising from 16.2 Bm3 in 2000 to 16.5, 17.4, and 20.7 Bm3 in 2005, 2011, and 2017 respectively, with the USA, China, Australia, Brazil and Canada being the major exporters to South Korea. The study also revealed high CVI values for the oils and grains category of imported food, implying the high vulnerability of South Korea to climate change effects resulting from the import of these crops. The quantitative impacts and structural changes in virtual water trade, as well as the link between climate change, food security, international trade, and domestic water consumption could be evaluated for the sustainable management and allocation of resources. This study successfully identified and quantified the status of food trade and its environmental implications in the study area, providing insight into a better allocation of locally available resources.

Tracking indirect water footprints, virtual water flows, and burden shifts related to inputs and supply chains for croplands: A case for maize in China.

Increasing crop yields to ensure an adequate food supply under water and land scarcity is dependent on intensive agricultural inputs (such as fertilizers, pesticides, agri-films, or energy) which consume water resources and generate water pollution. However, the burden shifting of water quantity and quality stress from producers to importer and consumers through agricultural input production, trade, and consumption have been largely overlooked. Here, taking maize in China as the study case, we mapped step-by-step indirect water footprint (IWF) of maize production, virtual water (VW) flows related to inputs driven by maize consumption, and the resulting burden shifting of water quantity and quality. Bottom-up WF accounting approach was applied. The maize consumption was intercepted into two stages: the crop production stage (CPS) from raw materials to the farm, and the crop trade stage (CTS) from farm to fork. Results show that the national average blue and grey IWF of maize production was 3.91 and 26.86 m3/t, respectively. In the CPS, the input-related VW flowed from the west and east coast to the north. In the CTS, the VW flows from the north to the south. Blue and grey VW flows in CTS caused by secondary flows of VW in CPS accounted for 48% and 18% of the total flows, respectively. In total VW flows along the maize supply chain, 63% of blue VW and 71% of grey VW net exports occurred in the north of severe water scarcity and water pollution levels. The analysis highlights the impact of the crop supply chain on water quantity and water quality in the consumption of agricultural inputs, the importance of step-by-step supply chain analysis for regional crop water conservation management, and the urgent need for integrated management of agricultural and industrial water resources.

Optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources integrated with virtual water trade: A perspective on spatial virtual water coordination.

Agricultural production consumes the majority of global freshwater resources. The worsening water scarcity has imposed significant stress on agricultural production when regions seek food self-sufficiency. To seek optimal allocation of spatial agricultural water and land resources in each water function zone of the objective region, a multi-objective optimization model was developed to tackle the trade-offs between the water-saving objective and the economic benefit objective considering virtual water trade (VWT). The cultivated area of each crop in each water function zone was taken into account as the decision variable, while a set of strong constraints were used to restrict land resources and water availability. Then, a decomposition-simplex method aggregation algorithm (DSMA) was proposed to solve this nonlinear, bounding-constrained, and multi-objective optimization model. Based on the quantitative analysis of the spatial blue and green virtual water in each agricultural product, the proposed methodology was applied to a real-world, provincial-scale region in China (i.e., Jiangsu Province). The optimized results provided 18 Pareto solutions to reallocate the land resources in the 21 IV-level water function zones of Jiangsu Province, considering four major rainy-season crops and two dry-season crops. Compared to the actual scenario, the superior scheme increased by 7.95% (5.6 × 109 RMB) for economic trade and decreased by 1.77% (2.0 × 109 m3) for agricultural water consumption. It was mainly because the potential of spatial blue and green virtual water in Jiangsu was fully exploited by improving spatial land resource allocation. The food security of Jiangsu could be guaranteed by achieving self-sufficiency in the superior scheme, and the total VWT in the optimal scheme was 2.2 times more than the actual scenario. The results provided a systematic decision-support methodology from the perspective of spatial virtual water coordination, yet, the methodology is widely applicable.

Driving forces and variation in water footprint before and after the COVID-19 lockdown in Fujian Province of China.

The COVID-19 outbreak has injured the global industrial supply chain, especially China as the world's largest manufacturing base. Since 2020, China has implemented a rigorous lockdown policy, which has sternly damaged sectoral trade in export-oriented coastal areas. Fujian Province, which mainly processes imported materials, has a more profound influence. Although the COVID-19 lockdown has had some detrimental consequences on the world economy, it also had some favorable benefits on the global ecology. Previous studies have shown that the lockdown has altered the physical water quantity and quality, but the lack of total, virtual, and physical water research that combines water quantity and water quality simultaneously to pinpoint the subject and responsibility of water resources consumption and pollution. This research quantified the physical, virtual, and total water consumption and water pollution among 30 sectors in Fujian Province based on the theory of water footprint and the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment model. SDA model was then used to investigate the socioeconomic elements that underpin variations in the water footprint. The results show that after the lockdown, the physical water quantity and the physical grey WF in Fujian Province decreased by 2.6 Gm3 (-6.7%) and 0.4 Gm3 (-1.3%) respectively. The virtual water quantity decreased by 2.3 Gm3 (-4.5%), whereas the virtual grey WF rose by 1.5 Gm3 (4.3%). The total water quantity dropped by 3.3 Gm3 (-4.9%), while the grey WF increased by 1.2 Gm3 (2.5%), i.e. the COVID-19 lockdown decreases physical water quantity and improves local water quality. More than 50% of the water comes from virtual water trade outside the province (virtual water is highly dependent on external), and around 60% of the grey WF comes from physical sewage in the province. The COVID-19 lockdown reduced water outsourcing across the province (paid nonlocally decrease) but increased pollution outsourcing (paid nonlocally increase). And gross capital formation's contribution to the growth in water footprint will continue to rise. As a result, this study suggested that Fujian should take advantage of sectoral trade network to enhance the transaction of green water-intensive intermediate products, reduce the physical water consumption of blue water-intensive sectors, and reduce the external dependence on water consumption. Achieving the shared responsibility of upstream and downstream water consumption and reducing the external dependence on water in water-rich regions is crucial to solving the world's water problems. This research provides empirical evidence for the long-term effects of COVID-19 lockdown on the physical and virtual water environment.

Consumption-Based Accounting for Tracing Virtual Water Flows Associated with Beef Supply Chains in the United States.

Enhancing the environmental sustainability of food systems requires an understanding of both production- and consumption-based impacts. As food supply chains become increasingly complex and connected, they also present a unique context in which to understand the environmental impacts of consumption. This is critical for understanding the disconnect between production- and consumption-based impacts of food systems and ultimately designing, evaluating, and implementing interventions for improving security, resilience, and sustainability of food systems. Using publicly available datasets and an optimization-based framework, we present a county-to-county level network model of beef supply chains in the United States. The model is used to connect and attribute the consumption-based impacts of beef consumption to production in distant locations, specifically focusing on water-based impacts. We specifically focus on the beef system because of its importance in the diet of U.S. consumers and in environmental sustainability discourse. The findings from this work show the spatial disconnect between the consumption and production counties with approximately 22 billion m3 of blue virtual water being transferred for the year 2017, mainly from the northern and southern plains toward the coasts. These results highlight the importance of understanding environmental impacts from both production and consumption perspectives.

Impacts of international trade on global inequality of energy and water use.

We are not on track to meet the SDGs by 2030 despite considerable efforts. Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic raise the tide of trade protection that may also go against SDGs. To explore how international trade affects SDGs, this study quantifies the impacts of international trade on global energy and water inequality by constructing resource-Gini-coefficients in terms of reserve, production, and consumption. We find that international trade alleviates global inequality in energy use, in which direct energy trade reduces the inequality significantly while nonenergy commodity trade aggravates it slightly. However, international trade has a pretty minor impact on improving global water inequality. The developing economies suffer a large amount of embodied energy and water outflows. For example, BRICS exported 712.3 Mtoe of embodied energy and 130.5 billion m3 of virtual water to the rest of the world, exceeding the sum of energy/water use in Germany and France. The developed economies, especially the USA and EU, outsource energy- and water-intensive commodities to reduce domestic energy shortage and water stress, roughly corresponding to India's energy use and two times of water use of South Africa.

Multiple accounting and driving factors of water resources use: A case study of Shanghai.

Previous research papers on urban water resources accounting were confined to the perspectives of production and consumption, ignoring the perspective of income. This paper proposes a systems framework to analyze the income, production, and consumption-based water uses and underlying driving forces of a city based on the methods of multi-scale input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis. A case study is performed for Shanghai as a megacity. The results show that the income, production and consumption-based water uses of Shanghai had decreased from 5.70 billion m3, 10.85 billion m3 and 28.45 billion m3 in 2007 to 2.80 billion m3, 6.20 billion m3 and 24.10 billion m3 in 2017, respectively. Domestic imported primary inputs had emerged as an important virtual water supplier of Shanghai and its share of total supply-side water use had increased from 23.92% in 2007 to 42.95% in 2017. Meanwhile, about 46% and 40% of Shanghai's total consumption-based water use had been imported from other Chinese regions and foreign countries in 2017, respectively. It is revealed that trade played an important role in relieving water use pressure in Shanghai. The factors that had increased the uses of water resources in Shanghai include population, per capita value-added, per capita output, final consumption structure, and per capita final consumption. The factors that had reduced the water uses in Shanghai include technology, value added mix, output structure, value added structure, domestic import, commodity mix, and foreign import. It is suggested that in addition to curbing urban water use from the production side, more targeted water-saving measures should be devised from the supply (e.g., restricting loan to heavy water-consuming enterprises) and consumption sides (e.g., encouraging residents to buy low-water products).

The impacts of China's crops trade on virtual water flow and water use sustainability of the "Belt and Road".

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the trade of crops between China and the countries have increased markedly. Agriculture is the most water-consuming sector, the trade of crops could influence national water availability via virtual water embodied in the products. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the water use of crops traded in countries along the "Belt and Road", from the perspective of import and export of China's crops, based on the characteristics and driving factors of virtual water trade, we proposed the Water Use Potential Index (WUPI) to assess sustainability of countries and their crops, and constructed a more comprehensive virtual water trade research framework. Results showed that the import and export of virtual water in 64 countries was dominated by green virtual water content from 2001 to 2017, and China was in a virtual water trade surplus. The Association of South-East Asian Nations was China's leading importer and exporter. The level of agricultural available water resources, the proportion of the agricultural population, the scale of agricultural production and the virtual water intensity could promote the growth of virtual water trade in crops between China and countries along the "Belt and Road", while economic model and the population structure played a restraining role. In terms of water use potential, China and Kazakhstan had great sustainable water use potential for crops, and the trade structure of other countries still needed to be further optimized. Understanding the virtual water trade in crops can provide a reference for the rational planning of crop cultivation and water resource conservation.

Sustainable conjunctive water management model for alleviating water shortage.

Water shortage poses a great challenge to the health of population and environment and impedes socio-economic development. Therefore, a comprehensive model is necessary to promote the adaptation of the whole socio-economic system to limited water resources. To achieve it, a sustainable conjunctive water management model (SCWM) was developed. In SCWM, direct (physical) and indirect (virtual or embodied) water consumptions of multiple water resources in future scenarios are projected, and the sustainable performances of various water-saving scenarios are quantified from the perspectives of water resources, economy, and ecosystem under water capping policy. A case study of Shaanxi, a typical water shortage province in central-eastern China, is conducted aimed at conquering the irrational use of surface- and ground-water subjected to the constraint of future total water use quota. Key findings contain optimal possibility of adapting water shortage via saving water through increasing industrial water efficiency to 11.12 m3/10,000 CNY and reducing 40% of agricultural final demand (Summation of direct and indirect water savings of the two scenarios are 41.57 × 108 m3 and 20.27 × 108 m3, respectively.) and nonsynergistic effects of simultaneous decreasing final demand of multiple sectors on water consumption intensity (WCI) of total (all kinds of water) water, surface- and ground-water. To devise effective policies for conjunctive management of surface- and ground-water, positive utility, economic structure and water productivity should be heeded, and proposals emphasize trade-offs between surface water saving and groundwater conservation, water metabolic and socio-economic systems sustainability and negative interaction of multiple sectors on economy and WCI should be framed. The innovation of this study is the development of SCWM, which can provide sustainable solution for future multiple-source water saving management measures thoroughly concerning direct and indirect water and sectorial interactions. The model not only brings insights to Shaanxi's water management but also can be used for other similar arid area.

Associations between developmental exposure to environmental contaminants and spatial navigation in late adolescence.

Inuit communities in Northern Quebec (Canada) are exposed to environmental contaminants, particularly to mercury, lead and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Previous studies reported adverse associations between these neurotoxicants and memory performance. Here we aimed to determine the associations of pre- and postnatal exposures to mercury, lead and PCB-153 on spatial navigation memory in 212 Inuit adolescents (mean age = 18.5 years) using a computer task which requires learning the location of a hidden platform based on allocentric spatial representation. Contaminant concentrations were measured in cord blood at birth and blood samples at 11 years of age and at time of testing. Multivariate regression models showed that adolescent mercury and prenatal PCB-153 exposures were associated with poorer spatial learning, whereas current exposure to PCB-153 was associated with altered spatial memory retrieval at the probe test trial. These findings suggest that contaminants might be linked to different aspects of spatial navigation processing at different stages.

Indirect effects of carbon taxes on water conservation: A water footprint analysis for China.

Water scarcity is a severe problem for regional environmental protection and socioeconomic development, and water footprints are effective tools for evaluating the magnitude of the water scarcity. However, water is closely intertwined with energy. Carbon taxes are an essential policy tool for managing energy use, and could therefore indirectly change the water footprint. Previous research on water footprints has revealed the historical characteristics of water footprints, but has not predicted how these characteristics would change under a carbon tax. Identifying the indirect impacts of carbon taxes on water footprints could therefore offer important information to support more effective energy and water policies. In the present study, we explored the impacts of carbon taxes on water footprints. We established a computable general equilibrium model to predict the effects of carbon taxes on the socioeconomic system, and adopted an input-output model to account for changes in the water footprint. We then used China as a case study. We found that a carbon tax could reduce the total water footprint, even though the water footprint for primary industries increased. In addition, the tax could decrease the virtual water content, and the reduction of virtual water content is the greatest for the secondary industries.

Identifying optimal virtual water management strategy for Kazakhstan: A factorial ecologically-extended input-output model.

Virtual water is an important indicator measuring the amount of water needed from the perspective of consumption, which can help decision makers to identify desired system design and optimal management strategy against water resources shortage. In this study, a novel model named as factorial ecologically-extended input-output model (abbreviated as FEIOM) is developed for virtual water management. FEIOM integrates techniques of input-output model (IOM), ecological network analysis (ENA) and factorial analysis (FA) into a general framework. It is effective to evaluate the virtual water flows, reveal ecological inter-connections in virtual water system (VWS), and identify key water consumption sectors that have significant individual and interactive effects on VWS's performance. FEIOM is then applied to identifying optimal virtual water management strategies for Kazakhstan in Central Asia. The main findings are: (i) Kazakhstan is a net importer of virtual water (reaching up to 46.0 × 109 m3), demonstrating that the national economic structure is reasonable, which can abate the national water scarcity and improve its eco-environmental protection; (ii) the virtual water of agricultural sector is net exporter, where vegetables, fruits and nuts occupy 86% of the total agricultural exports; the massive export of water-intensive products further squeezes the water for other users; (iii) the key factors affecting the national VWS are agriculture > primary manufacturing > advanced manufacturing > services. Therefore, from solving water resources shortage and facilitating sustainable development perspectives, Kazakhstan should stimulate the domestic primary manufacturing productions and improve agriculture and advanced manufacturing water-use efficiencies.

What the reclaimed water use can change: From a perspective of inter-provincial virtual water network.

Reclaimed water has been used as an alternative water resource for various economic activities, which inevitably is involved in the virtual water trade. However, the effect of reclaimed water on the virtual water trade has not been evaluated in previous studies. For the sake of sustainable water management, this study explored the benefits of reclaimed water use for balancing the water resource allocation at the interprovincial level. Multiregional input-output analysis and ecological network analysis were used to investigate the spatial and structural characteristics of the virtual reclaimed water network (VRWN) among 31 provinces in China and the potential effect of reclaimed water use. The results show that the net export flows of virtual reclaimed water have different spatial patterns from those of freshwater, some provinces that import virtual freshwater are exporters of virtual reclaimed water. Although the exploitative relationship is the dominant ecological relationship in the VRWN (72%), it is confirmed that reclaimed water use contributes to balancing the virtual water trade of China with a more competitive relationship (21%) than in the virtual freshwater network (4%). The virtual freshwater consumption change rate in developed provinces decreases by more than 10% through reclaimed water use. Due to the high food exports and low application of wastewater reclamation in less developed provinces, the effect of reclaimed water use in those provinces is not as obvious as that in developed provinces. This paper offers a new perspective for understanding the current VRWN and guidance for the optimization of the virtual water trade structure.

Spillover risk analysis of virtual water trade based on multi-regional input-output model -A case study.

Massive amounts of water embodied in commodities are transferred via interregional trade which increase the water scarcity risk of exporting region. This study proposed an integrated evaluation framework for sectoral physical water use risks and virtual water flow risks in Northeast China. The initial water use risks for different sectors by provinces were first assessed based on sectoral physical water consumption. Then based on the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, a virtual water trade network was established, and simultaneously the virtual scarce water in sectoral export of intermediate goods and final goods were accounted to investigate the virtual water flow risks by sectors. Finally, interprovincial embodied scarce water transfers between Northeast China and the rest of China were mapped, and by grafting the concept of 'spillover risk' to the virtual water trade, we analyzed the spillover risk difference of virtual water trade between regions. The results showed that the sectors of Agriculture (Ag) and Other manufacturing (OM) presented the highest risk of water use while Nonmetal mining (NmM) belonged to the potential high-risk sectors of water use for Northeast China. The sectors exported more virtual scarce water in intermediate goods also exported more in the final goods; and the sector of Manufacture of food products and tobacco processing (FP) was the largest contributor to the large exporting virtual scarce water for Liaoning and Jilin while Ag in Heilongjiang province was the largest exporter. The cumulative spillover risk index from rest of China to Liaoning province through virtual water trade is the highest; and the main risk spilt provinces to Northeast China were Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Hebei province. The proposed risk framework for water utilization and trade may help promote the redistribution of water resources and explore pathways for sustainable management of water resources.

Virtual groundwater transfers from overexploited aquifers in the United States.

The High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems within the United States are currently being overexploited for irrigation water supplies. The unsustainable use of groundwater resources in all three aquifer systems intensified from 2000 to 2008, making it imperative that we understand the consumptive processes and forces of demand that are driving their depletion. To this end, we quantify and track agricultural virtual groundwater transfers from these overexploited aquifer systems to their final destination. Specifically, we determine which US metropolitan areas, US states, and international export destinations are currently the largest consumers of these critical aquifers. We draw upon US government data on agricultural production, irrigation, and domestic food flows, as well as modeled estimates of agricultural virtual water contents to quantify domestic transfers. Additionally, we use US port-level trade data to trace international exports from these aquifers. In 2007, virtual groundwater transfers from the High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems totaled 17.93 km(3), 9.18 km(3), and 6.81 km(3), respectively, which is comparable to the capacity of Lake Mead (35.7 km(3)), the largest surface reservoir in the United States. The vast majority (91%) of virtual groundwater transfers remains within the United States. Importantly, the cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers are critical to US food security (contributing 18.5% to domestic cereal supply). Notably, Japan relies upon cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers for 9.2% of its domestic cereal supply. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant food demands and local agricultural water use.

Physical and virtual water transfers for regional water stress alleviation in China.

Water can be redistributed through, in physical terms, water transfer projects and virtually, embodied water for the production of traded products. Here, we explore whether such water redistributions can help mitigate water stress in China. This study, for the first time to our knowledge, both compiles a full inventory for physical water transfers at a provincial level and maps virtual water flows between Chinese provinces in 2007 and 2030. Our results show that, at the national level, physical water flows because of the major water transfer projects amounted to 4.5% of national water supply, whereas virtual water flows accounted for 35% (varies between 11% and 65% at the provincial level) in 2007. Furthermore, our analysis shows that both physical and virtual water flows do not play a major role in mitigating water stress in the water-receiving regions but exacerbate water stress for the water-exporting regions of China. Future water stress in the main water-exporting provinces is likely to increase further based on our analysis of the historical trajectory of the major governing socioeconomic and technical factors and the full implementation of policy initiatives relating to water use and economic development. Improving water use efficiency is key to mitigating water stress, but the efficiency gains will be largely offset by the water demand increase caused by continued economic development. We conclude that much greater attention needs to be paid to water demand management rather than the current focus on supply-oriented management.

Balancing water resource conservation and food security in China.

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China's future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km(3)/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.

Worse than imagined: Unidentified virtual water flows in China.

The impact of virtual water flows on regional water scarcity in China had been deeply discussed in previous research. However, these studies only focused on water quantity, the impact of virtual water flows on water quality has been largely neglected. In this study, we incorporate the blue water footprint related with water quantity and grey water footprint related with water quality into virtual water flow analysis based on the multiregional input-output model of 2007. The results find that the interprovincial virtual flows accounts for 23.4% of China's water footprint. The virtual grey water flows are 8.65 times greater than the virtual blue water flows; the virtual blue water and grey water flows are 91.8 and 794.6 Gm3/y, respectively. The use of the indicators related with water quantity to represent virtual water flows in previous studies will underestimate their impact on water resources. In addition, the virtual water flows are mainly derived from agriculture, chemical industry and petroleum processing and the coking industry, which account for 66.8%, 7.1% and 6.2% of the total virtual water flows, respectively. Virtual water flows have intensified both quantity- and quality-induced water scarcity of export regions, where low-value-added but water-intensive and high-pollution goods are produced. Our study on virtual water flows can inform effective water use policy for both water resources and water pollution in China. Our methodology about virtual water flows also can be used in global scale or other countries if data available.