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1.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 74(1): 12-49, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38230766

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence and outcomes using incidence data collected by central cancer registries (through 2020) and mortality data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics (through 2021). In 2024, 2,001,140 new cancer cases and 611,720 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Cancer mortality continued to decline through 2021, averting over 4 million deaths since 1991 because of reductions in smoking, earlier detection for some cancers, and improved treatment options in both the adjuvant and metastatic settings. However, these gains are threatened by increasing incidence for 6 of the top 10 cancers. Incidence rates increased during 2015-2019 by 0.6%-1% annually for breast, pancreas, and uterine corpus cancers and by 2%-3% annually for prostate, liver (female), kidney, and human papillomavirus-associated oral cancers and for melanoma. Incidence rates also increased by 1%-2% annually for cervical (ages 30-44 years) and colorectal cancers (ages <55 years) in young adults. Colorectal cancer was the fourth-leading cause of cancer death in both men and women younger than 50 years in the late-1990s but is now first in men and second in women. Progress is also hampered by wide persistent cancer disparities; compared to White people, mortality rates are two-fold higher for prostate, stomach and uterine corpus cancers in Black people and for liver, stomach, and kidney cancers in Native American people. Continued national progress will require increased investment in cancer prevention and access to equitable treatment, especially among American Indian and Alaska Native and Black individuals.


Asunto(s)
Melanoma , Neoplasias , Masculino , Adulto Joven , Humanos , Femenino , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Neoplasias/terapia , Sistema de Registros , Incidencia , Fumar , Blanco
2.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 73(1): 17-48, 2023 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36633525

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence and outcomes using incidence data collected by central cancer registries and mortality data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2023, 1,958,310 new cancer cases and 609,820 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Cancer incidence increased for prostate cancer by 3% annually from 2014 through 2019 after two decades of decline, translating to an additional 99,000 new cases; otherwise, however, incidence trends were more favorable in men compared to women. For example, lung cancer in women decreased at one half the pace of men (1.1% vs. 2.6% annually) from 2015 through 2019, and breast and uterine corpus cancers continued to increase, as did liver cancer and melanoma, both of which stabilized in men aged 50 years and older and declined in younger men. However, a 65% drop in cervical cancer incidence during 2012 through 2019 among women in their early 20s, the first cohort to receive the human papillomavirus vaccine, foreshadows steep reductions in the burden of human papillomavirus-associated cancers, the majority of which occur in women. Despite the pandemic, and in contrast with other leading causes of death, the cancer death rate continued to decline from 2019 to 2020 (by 1.5%), contributing to a 33% overall reduction since 1991 and an estimated 3.8 million deaths averted. This progress increasingly reflects advances in treatment, which are particularly evident in the rapid declines in mortality (approximately 2% annually during 2016 through 2020) for leukemia, melanoma, and kidney cancer, despite stable/increasing incidence, and accelerated declines for lung cancer. In summary, although cancer mortality rates continue to decline, future progress may be attenuated by rising incidence for breast, prostate, and uterine corpus cancers, which also happen to have the largest racial disparities in mortality.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Melanoma , Neoplasia Endocrina Múltiple Tipo 1 , Neoplasias , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Sistema de Registros , Incidencia , Grupos Raciales , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiología
3.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 72(1): 7-33, 2022 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35020204

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence and outcomes. Incidence data (through 2018) were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data (through 2019) were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2022, 1,918,030 new cancer cases and 609,360 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States, including approximately 350 deaths per day from lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death. Incidence during 2014 through 2018 continued a slow increase for female breast cancer (by 0.5% annually) and remained stable for prostate cancer, despite a 4% to 6% annual increase for advanced disease since 2011. Consequently, the proportion of prostate cancer diagnosed at a distant stage increased from 3.9% to 8.2% over the past decade. In contrast, lung cancer incidence continued to decline steeply for advanced disease while rates for localized-stage increased suddenly by 4.5% annually, contributing to gains both in the proportion of localized-stage diagnoses (from 17% in 2004 to 28% in 2018) and 3-year relative survival (from 21% to 31%). Mortality patterns reflect incidence trends, with declines accelerating for lung cancer, slowing for breast cancer, and stabilizing for prostate cancer. In summary, progress has stagnated for breast and prostate cancers but strengthened for lung cancer, coinciding with changes in medical practice related to cancer screening and/or treatment. More targeted cancer control interventions and investment in improved early detection and treatment would facilitate reductions in cancer mortality.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/estadística & datos numéricos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Próstata/epidemiología , American Cancer Society , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/tendencias , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Masculino , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Neoplasias de la Próstata/diagnóstico , Programa de VERF/estadística & datos numéricos , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
4.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 71(1): 7-33, 2021 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33433946

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence. Incidence data (through 2017) were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data (through 2018) were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2021, 1,898,160 new cancer cases and 608,570 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. After increasing for most of the 20th century, the cancer death rate has fallen continuously from its peak in 1991 through 2018, for a total decline of 31%, because of reductions in smoking and improvements in early detection and treatment. This translates to 3.2 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred if peak rates had persisted. Long-term declines in mortality for the 4 leading cancers have halted for prostate cancer and slowed for breast and colorectal cancers, but accelerated for lung cancer, which accounted for almost one-half of the total mortality decline from 2014 to 2018. The pace of the annual decline in lung cancer mortality doubled from 3.1% during 2009 through 2013 to 5.5% during 2014 through 2018 in men, from 1.8% to 4.4% in women, and from 2.4% to 5% overall. This trend coincides with steady declines in incidence (2.2%-2.3%) but rapid gains in survival specifically for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC). For example, NSCLC 2-year relative survival increased from 34% for persons diagnosed during 2009 through 2010 to 42% during 2015 through 2016, including absolute increases of 5% to 6% for every stage of diagnosis; survival for small cell lung cancer remained at 14% to 15%. Improved treatment accelerated progress against lung cancer and drove a record drop in overall cancer mortality, despite slowing momentum for other common cancers.


Asunto(s)
Mortalidad/tendencias , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Programa de VERF/estadística & datos numéricos , American Cancer Society , Humanos , Incidencia , Neoplasias/terapia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
5.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 70(1): 7-30, 2020 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31912902

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence. Incidence data (through 2016) were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data (through 2017) were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2020, 1,806,590 new cancer cases and 606,520 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. The cancer death rate rose until 1991, then fell continuously through 2017, resulting in an overall decline of 29% that translates into an estimated 2.9 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred if peak rates had persisted. This progress is driven by long-term declines in death rates for the 4 leading cancers (lung, colorectal, breast, prostate); however, over the past decade (2008-2017), reductions slowed for female breast and colorectal cancers, and halted for prostate cancer. In contrast, declines accelerated for lung cancer, from 3% annually during 2008 through 2013 to 5% during 2013 through 2017 in men and from 2% to almost 4% in women, spurring the largest ever single-year drop in overall cancer mortality of 2.2% from 2016 to 2017. Yet lung cancer still caused more deaths in 2017 than breast, prostate, colorectal, and brain cancers combined. Recent mortality declines were also dramatic for melanoma of the skin in the wake of US Food and Drug Administration approval of new therapies for metastatic disease, escalating to 7% annually during 2013 through 2017 from 1% during 2006 through 2010 in men and women aged 50 to 64 years and from 2% to 3% in those aged 20 to 49 years; annual declines of 5% to 6% in individuals aged 65 years and older are particularly striking because rates in this age group were increasing prior to 2013. It is also notable that long-term rapid increases in liver cancer mortality have attenuated in women and stabilized in men. In summary, slowing momentum for some cancers amenable to early detection is juxtaposed with notable gains for other common cancers.


Asunto(s)
American Cancer Society , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Sistema de Registros , Programa de VERF/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Tasa de Supervivencia/tendencias , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
6.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 69(1): 7-34, 2019 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30620402

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2015, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2016, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2019, 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2006-2015) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% per year in men, whereas the cancer death rate (2007-2016) declined annually by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The overall cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2016 by a total of 27%, translating into approximately 2,629,200 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Although the racial gap in cancer mortality is slowly narrowing, socioeconomic inequalities are widening, with the most notable gaps for the most preventable cancers. For example, compared with the most affluent counties, mortality rates in the poorest counties were 2-fold higher for cervical cancer and 40% higher for male lung and liver cancers during 2012-2016. Some states are home to both the wealthiest and the poorest counties, suggesting the opportunity for more equitable dissemination of effective cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. A broader application of existing cancer control knowledge with an emphasis on disadvantaged groups would undoubtedly accelerate progress against cancer.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias/epidemiología , American Cancer Society , Etnicidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Disparidades en Atención de Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/terapia , Factores Socioeconómicos , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
7.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 68(1): 7-30, 2018 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29313949

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2014, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2015, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2018, 1,735,350 new cancer cases and 609,640 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2005-2014) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% annually in men, while the cancer death rate (2006-2015) declined by about 1.5% annually in both men and women. The combined cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2015 by a total of 26%, translating to approximately 2,378,600 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Of the 10 leading causes of death, only cancer declined from 2014 to 2015. In 2015, the cancer death rate was 14% higher in non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs) than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) overall (death rate ratio [DRR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.13-1.15), but the racial disparity was much larger for individuals aged <65 years (DRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.29-1.32) compared with those aged ≥65 years (DRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and varied substantially by state. For example, the cancer death rate was lower in NHBs than NHWs in Massachusetts for all ages and in New York for individuals aged ≥65 years, whereas for those aged <65 years, it was 3 times higher in NHBs in the District of Columbia (DRR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.16-3.91) and about 50% higher in Wisconsin (DRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.56-2.02), Kansas (DRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.25-1.81), Louisiana (DRR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.38-1.60), Illinois (DRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.39-1.57), and California (DRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.38-1.54). Larger racial inequalities in young and middle-aged adults probably partly reflect less access to high-quality health care. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:7-30. © 2018 American Cancer Society.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
8.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 67(1): 7-30, 2017 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28055103

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2017, 1,688,780 new cancer cases and 600,920 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. For all sites combined, the cancer incidence rate is 20% higher in men than in women, while the cancer death rate is 40% higher. However, sex disparities vary by cancer type. For example, thyroid cancer incidence rates are 3-fold higher in women than in men (21 vs 7 per 100,000 population), despite equivalent death rates (0.5 per 100,000 population), largely reflecting sex differences in the "epidemic of diagnosis." Over the past decade of available data, the overall cancer incidence rate (2004-2013) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% annually in men, while the cancer death rate (2005-2014) declined by about 1.5% annually in both men and women. From 1991 to 2014, the overall cancer death rate dropped 25%, translating to approximately 2,143,200 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Although the cancer death rate was 15% higher in blacks than in whites in 2014, increasing access to care as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act may expedite the narrowing racial gap; from 2010 to 2015, the proportion of blacks who were uninsured halved, from 21% to 11%, as it did for Hispanics (31% to 16%). Gains in coverage for traditionally underserved Americans will facilitate the broader application of existing cancer control knowledge across every segment of the population. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:7-30. © 2017 American Cancer Society.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias/epidemiología , American Cancer Society , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Grupos Raciales/estadística & datos numéricos , Sistema de Registros , Programa de VERF , Distribución por Sexo , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
9.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 67(4): 273-289, 2017 07 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28586094

RESUMEN

Liver cancer is highly fatal, and death rates in the United States are increasing faster than for any other cancer, having doubled since the mid-1980s. In 2017, it is estimated that the disease will account for about 41,000 new cancer cases and 29,000 cancer deaths in the United States. In this article, data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and the National Center for Health Statistics are used to provide an overview of liver cancer incidence, mortality, and survival rates and trends, including data by race/ethnicity and state. The prevalence of major risk factors for liver cancer is also reported based on national survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Despite the improvement in liver cancer survival in recent decades, only 1 in 5 patients survives 5 years after diagnosis. There is substantial disparity in liver cancer death rates by race/ethnicity (from 5.5 per 100,000 in non-Hispanic whites to 11.9 per 100,000 in American Indians/Alaska Natives) and state (from 3.8 per 100,000 in North Dakota to 9.6 per 100,000 in the District of Columbia) and by race/ethnicity within states. Differences in risk factor prevalence account for much of the observed variation in liver cancer rates. Thus, in contrast to the growing burden, a substantial proportion of liver cancer deaths could be averted, and existing disparities could be dramatically reduced, through the targeted application of existing knowledge in prevention, early detection, and treatment, including improvements in vaccination against hepatitis B virus, screening and treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus infections, maintaining a healthy body weight, access to high-quality diabetes care, preventing excessive alcohol drinking, and tobacco control, at both the state and national levels. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:273-289. © 2017 American Cancer Society.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Hepáticas/etnología , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/mortalidad , Neoplasias Hepáticas/prevención & control , Masculino , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Prevalencia , Sistema de Registros , Factores de Riesgo , Programa de VERF , Distribución por Sexo , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
10.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 857, 2024 Mar 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38504226

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: This study investigates the influence of Global Smoking Prevalence (GSP) on Stroke Death Rates (SDR) across 27 countries categorized into High-Income Countries (HIC), Upper Middle-Income Countries (UMIC), Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMIC), and Low-Income Countries (LIC). METHODS: Analysing data from two distinct periods (1990-1999 and 2010-2019), countries exhibiting an increased SDR were selected. The study uses a polynomial regression model, treating income groups as cross-sectional and years as time series data. RESULTS: Results from the regression model reveal that 17 countries observed a significant impact of GSP on SDR, with only Turkey, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste resulting in negative values. However, the study emphasises that out of all 27 countries, the highest occurrence of the impact of GSP on SDR has been reported in the LMIC stratum for the period under review. CONCLUSION: It is evident that GSP affects the risk of incidence of stroke death, specifically in the LMIC stratum. Furthermore, it has been identified that GSP is a major preventable risk factor affecting global mortality. To mitigate the risk of stroke death attributable to smoking prevalence, necessary preventive steps should be adopted to encourage smoking cessation, and essential policies should be implemented to reduce the burden of SDR.


Asunto(s)
Fumar , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Humanos , Prevalencia , Estudios Transversales , Fumar/epidemiología , Fumar Tabaco , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Países en Desarrollo
11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(16)2021 04 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33846260

RESUMEN

We use three indexes to identify how age-specific mortality rates in the United States compare to those in a composite of five large European countries since 2000. First, we examine the ratio of age-specific death rates in the United States to those in Europe. These show a sharp deterioration in the US position since 2000. Applying European age-specific death rates in 2017 to the US population, we then show that adverse mortality conditions in the United States resulted in 400,700 excess deaths that year. Finally, we show that these excess deaths entailed a loss of 13.0 My of life. In 2017, excess deaths and years of life lost in the United States represent a larger annual loss of life than that associated with the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/virología , Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Niño , Preescolar , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad/tendencias , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
12.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 66(1): 7-30, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26742998

RESUMEN

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data were collected by the National Cancer Institute (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results [SEER] Program), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (National Program of Cancer Registries), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2016, 1,685,210 new cancer cases and 595,690 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Overall cancer incidence trends (13 oldest SEER registries) are stable in women, but declining by 3.1% per year in men (from 2009-2012), much of which is because of recent rapid declines in prostate cancer diagnoses. The cancer death rate has dropped by 23% since 1991, translating to more than 1.7 million deaths averted through 2012. Despite this progress, death rates are increasing for cancers of the liver, pancreas, and uterine corpus, and cancer is now the leading cause of death in 21 states, primarily due to exceptionally large reductions in death from heart disease. Among children and adolescents (aged birth-19 years), brain cancer has surpassed leukemia as the leading cause of cancer death because of the dramatic therapeutic advances against leukemia. Accelerating progress against cancer requires both increased national investment in cancer research and the application of existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias/epidemiología , American Cancer Society , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Grupos Raciales/estadística & datos numéricos , Sistema de Registros , Programa de VERF , Distribución por Sexo , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
13.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 23(1): 83, 2023 04 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37020203

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: National mortality statistics are based on a single underlying cause of death. This practice does not adequately represent the impact of the range of conditions experienced in an ageing population in which multimorbidity is common. METHODS: We propose a new method for weighting the percentages of deaths attributed to different causes that takes account of the patterns of associations among underlying and contributing causes of death. It is driven by the data and unlike previously proposed methods does not rely on arbitrary choices of weights which can over-emphasise the contribution of some causes of death. The method is illustrated using Australian mortality data for people aged 60 years or more. RESULTS: Compared to the usual method based only on the underlying cause of death the new method attributes higher percentages of deaths to conditions like diabetes and dementia that are frequently mentioned as contributing causes of death, rather than underlying causes, and lower percentages to conditions to which they are closely related such as ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. For some causes, notably cancers, which are usually recorded as underlying causes with few if any contributing causes the new method produces similar percentages to the usual method. These different patterns among groups of related conditions are not apparent if arbitrary weights are used. CONCLUSION: The new method could be used by national statistical agencies to produce additional mortality tables to complement the current tables based only on underlying causes of death.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Humanos , Causas de Muerte , Australia , Envejecimiento , Causalidad
14.
J Math Biol ; 86(2): 21, 2023 01 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36625974

RESUMEN

The work is devoted to a new immuno-epidemiological model with distributed recovery and death rates considered as functions of time after the infection onset. Disease transmission rate depends on the intra-subject viral load determined from the immunological submodel. The age-dependent model includes the viral load, recovery and death rates as functions of age considered as a continuous variable. Equations for susceptible, infected, recovered and dead compartments are expressed in terms of the number of newly infected cases. The analysis of the model includes the proof of the existence and uniqueness of solution. Furthermore, it is shown how the model can be reduced to age-dependent SIR or delay model under certain assumptions on recovery and death distributions. Basic reproduction number and final size of epidemic are determined for the reduced models. The model is validated with a COVID-19 case data. Modelling results show that proportion of young age groups can influence the epidemic progression since disease transmission rate for them is higher than for other age groups.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Número Básico de Reproducción , Modelos Epidemiológicos
15.
Health Care Manag Sci ; 26(1): 79-92, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36282367

RESUMEN

We analyze the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over a nearly one-year period beginning March 1, 2020 with a novel metric motivated by queueing models, tracking partial-average day-of-event and cumulative probability distributions for events, where events are points in time when new cases and new deaths are reported. The partial average represents the average day of all events preceding a point of time, and is an indicator as to whether the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating in the context of the entire history of the pandemic. The measure supplements traditional metrics, and also enables direct comparisons of case and death histories on a common scale. We also compare methods for estimating actual infections and deaths to assess the timing and dynamics of the pandemic by location. Three example states are graphically compared as functions of date, as well as Hong Kong as an example that experienced a pronounced recent wave of the pandemic. In addition, statistics are compared for all 50 states. Over the period studied, average case day and average death day varied by two to five months among the 50 states, depending on data source, with the earliest averages in New York and surrounding states, as well as Louisiana.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Pandemias , Benchmarking , Hong Kong
16.
Scand J Public Health ; 51(6): 894-901, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35331067

RESUMEN

AIMS: There are substantial differences in remaining life expectancy at higher ages between occupational groups. These differences may be the effect of work-related exposures, lifestyle factors of workers in specific occupations, socioeconomic position or a combination of this. The scope of this paper is the extent to which occupational differences in remaining life expectancy persist after retirement, which would suggest that occupational exposures alone are not likely to explain all the difference. METHODS: All individuals born between 1925 and 1939 who reported occupational information in the Census 1985 and were residents in Sweden to the end of 2020 or who died were included and followed for death until 2020. The Nordic Classification of Occupations was used to create nine occupational groups. Partial life expectancy and age-specific death rates were applied to examine mortality differentials. RESULTS: This study showed substantial differences in partial life expectancy across the occupational cohorts with the biggest difference being about 2 years. The mortality differences persisted with increasing age, both when measured as absolute numbers as well as relative numbers. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of convergence in mortality at high ages suggests that factors associated with lifestyle may play a larger role than occupational factors for the mortality differences between occupational groups at high ages. However, it cannot be ruled out that long-lasting effects of earlier occupational exposures also contribute. Regardless of the exact mechanism, we conclude that there is room for further reduction in mortality at high ages and, thus, for further improvement in life expectancy.


Asunto(s)
Esperanza de Vida , Jubilación , Humanos , Ocupaciones , Suecia/epidemiología , Estilo de Vida , Mortalidad
17.
Int Wound J ; 20(5): 1361-1368, 2023 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36336978

RESUMEN

We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the oncological results in women with wound complications following mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction. A systematic literature search up to August 2022 was performed and 1618 subjects with mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction at the baseline of the studies; 443 of them were with wound complications, and 1175 were with no wound complications as a control. Odds ratio (OR) and mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to assess the oncological results in women with wound complications following mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction using dichotomous or contentious methods with a random or fixed-effect model. The wound complications had a significantly longer length of time to adjuvant therapy (MD, 9.44; 95% CI, 4.07-14.82, P < .001) compared with no wound complications in subjects with mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction. However, no significant difference was found between wound complications and no wound complications in subjects with mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction in breast cancer recurrence (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 0.95-4.06, P = .07), death rates (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 0.89-4.27, P = .09), and kind of immediate breast reconstruction (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.53-1.92, P = .98). The wound complications had a significantly longer length of time to adjuvant, however, no significant difference was found in breast cancer recurrence, death rates, and kind of immediate breast reconstruction. The analysis of outcomes should be done with caution even though no low sample size was found in the meta-analysis but a low number of studies was found in certain comparisons.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama , Mamoplastia , Femenino , Humanos , Mastectomía/efectos adversos , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/etiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Mamoplastia/métodos
18.
Biol Sport ; 40(3): 835-855, 2023 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37398951

RESUMEN

The purpose of this investigation is to estimate the global disease burden attributable to low physical activity (PA) in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Detailed information on global deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low PA were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The ideal exposure scenario of PA was defined as 3000-4500 metabolic equivalent minutes per week and low PA was considered to be less than this threshold. Age-standardization was used to improve the comparison of rates across locations or between time periods. In 2019, low PA seems to contribute to 0.83 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.43 to 1.47] deaths and 15.75 million (95% UI 8.52 to 28.62) DALYs globally, an increase of 83.9% (95% UI 69.3 to 105.7) and 82.9% (95% UI 65.5 to 112.1) since 1990, respectively. The age-standardized rates of low-PA-related deaths and DALYs per 100,000 people in 2019 were 11.1 (95% UI 5.7 to 19.5) and 198.4 (95% UI 108.2 to 360.3), respectively. Of all age-standardized DALYs globally in 2019, 0.6% (95% UI 0.3 to 1.1) may be attributable to low PA. The association between SDI and the proportion of age-standardized DALYs attributable to low PA suggests that regions with the highest SDI largely decreased their proportions of age-standardized DALYs attributable to low PA during 1990-2019, while other regions tended to have increased proportions in the same timeframe. In 2019, the rates of low-PA-related deaths and DALYs tended to rise with increasing age in both sexes, with no differences between males and females in the age-standardized rates. An insufficient accumulation of PA across the globe occurs together with a considerable public health burden. Health initiatives to promote PA within different age groups and countries are urgently needed.

19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(5): 1026-1030, 2022 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35450565

RESUMEN

In a cross-sectional survey in Omdurman, Sudan, during March-April 2021, we estimated that 54.6% of the population had detectable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies. Overall population death rates among those >50 years of age increased 74% over the first coronavirus disease pandemic year.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Anticuerpos Antivirales , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Prevalencia , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Sudán/epidemiología
20.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 65(1): 5-29, 2015.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25559415

RESUMEN

Each year the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data were collected by the National Cancer Institute (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results [SEER] Program), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (National Program of Cancer Registries), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. A total of 1,658,370 new cancer cases and 589,430 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States in 2015. During the most recent 5 years for which there are data (2007-2011), delay-adjusted cancer incidence rates (13 oldest SEER registries) declined by 1.8% per year in men and were stable in women, while cancer death rates nationwide decreased by 1.8% per year in men and by 1.4% per year in women. The overall cancer death rate decreased from 215.1 (per 100,000 population) in 1991 to 168.7 in 2011, a total relative decline of 22%. However, the magnitude of the decline varied by state, and was generally lowest in the South (∼15%) and highest in the Northeast (≥20%). For example, there were declines of 25% to 30% in Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, and Delaware, which collectively averted 29,000 cancer deaths in 2011 as a result of this progress. Further gains can be accelerated by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias/epidemiología , Sistema de Registros , American Cancer Society , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Programa de VERF , Distribución por Sexo , Tasa de Supervivencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
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