Natural Selection Across Three Generations of Americans.

We investigate natural selection on polygenic scores in the contemporary US, using the Health and Retirement Study. Across three generations, scores which correlate negatively (positively) with education are selected for (against). However, results only partially support the economic theory of fertility as an explanation for natural selection. The theory predicts that selection coefficients should be stronger among low-income, less educated, unmarried and younger parents, but these predictions are only half borne out: coefficients are larger only among low-income parents and unmarried parents. We also estimate effect sizes corrected for noise in the polygenic scores. Selection for some health traits is similar in magnitude to that for cognitive traits.

Examining the dynamics between economic development, tourism, renewable energy and life expectancy in the Nordic economies.

As the world struggles with pressing issues like climate change and sustainable development, affecting health outcomes and environmental quality, the Nordic regionsare at the forefront of major global challenges. This paper investigates the role of human capital, renewable energy use, tourism, natural resources, and economic growth in shaping life in the Nordic region i.e., Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland).Utilizing panel data spanning from 1990 to 2020, the Driscoll and Kraay standard error (DSK) technique is employed to analyze this intricate interplay. The study reveals that in the Nordic context, sustainable economic growth, bolstered by investments in human capital and the widespread acceptance of renewable energy sources, has been positively associated with increased life expectancies. Furthermore, prudent management of natural resources has helped mitigate adverse health effects related to depletion, maintaining environmental and public health standards. The thriving tourism industry has also been shown to influence lifespan in this region positively. On the contrary, the empirical finding contended that an adverse correlation exists between carbon emissions and LEX. This research underscores the importance of a comprehensive and balanced approach that considers economic development, sustainable development, and public health in pursuing longer and healthier lives, providing valuable insights for policymakers and regions seeking to replicate these positive outcomes.The findings of this study are both conceptually reliable and empirically robust, providing important insights for the formulation of environmental and health policy.

The role of human capital and stress for cost awareness in the healthcare system: a survey among German hospital physicians.

BACKGROUND: Germany has the highest per capita health care spending among EU member states, but its hospitals face pressure to generate profits independently due to the government's withdrawal of investment cost coverage. The diagnosis related groups (DRG) payment system was implemented to address the cost issue, challenging hospital physicians to provide services within predefined prices and an economic target corridor to reduce costs. This study examines the extent of cost awareness among medical personnel in German hospitals and its influencing factors. METHODS: We developed an online survey in which participants across all specialties in hospitals estimated the prices in euros of four common interventions and answered questions about their human capital and perceived stress on the workplace. As a measure of cost awareness, we used the probability of estimating the prices correctly within a reasonable margin. We employed logit logistic regression estimators to identify influencing factors in a sample of 86 participants. RESULTS: The results revealed that most of the respondents were unaware of the costs of common interventions. General human capital, acquired through prior education, and job-specific human capital had no influence on cost awareness, whereas domain-specific human capital, that is, gaining economic knowledge based on self-interest, had a positive nonlinear effect on cost awareness. Furthermore, an increased stress level negatively influenced cost awareness. CONCLUSIONS: This paper is the first of its kind for the German health care sector that contributes responses to the question whether health care professionals in German hospitals have cost awareness and if not, what reasons lie behind this lack of knowledge. Our findings show that the cost awareness desired by the introduction of the DRG system has yet to be achieved by medical personnel.

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

Skills-adjusted human capital shows rising global gap.

Human capital, broadly defined as the skills acquired through formal education, is acknowledged as one of the key drivers of economic growth and social development. However, its measurement for the working-age populations, on a global scale and over time, is still unsatisfactory. Most indicators either only consider the quantity dimension of education and disregard the actual skills or are demographically inconsistent by applying the skills of the young cohorts in school to represent the skills of the working-age population at the same time. In the case of rapidly expanding or changing school systems, this assumption is untenable. However, an increasing number of countries have started to assess the literacy skills of their adult populations by age and sex directly. Drawing on this literacy data, and by using demographic backprojection and statistical estimation techniques, we here present a demographically consistent indicator for adult literacy skills, the skills in literacy adjusted mean years of schooling (SLAMYS). The measure is given for the population aged 20 to 64 in 185 countries and for the period 1970 to 2015. Compared to the conventional mean years of schooling (MYS)-which has strongly increased for most countries over the past decades, and in particular among poor countries-the trends in SLAMYS exhibit a widening global skills gap between low- and high-performing countries.

Can adult children's education prevent parental health decline in the short term and long term? Evidence from rural China.

This paper presents the first evidence of the causal relationship between adult children's schooling and changes in parental health in the short and long term. By using supply-side variation in schooling as an instrument for adult children's education and a representative dataset for rural China, we find that adult children' education has a positive influence on the long-term changes in parental health, with limited evidence of any short-term effect. Our results remain consistent after a variety of sensitivity tests. The heterogeneous analyses show differences in socio-economic status and gender, with low-educated parents and mothers being the primary beneficiaries of children's schooling. Potential mechanisms for the long-term effects of adult children's education on changes in parental health include better chronic disease management, improved access to health, sanitation, and clean fuel facilities, improved psychological well-being, and reduced smoking behaviours.

Associations of formal childcare use with health and human capital development for adolescent mothers and their children in South Africa: A cross-sectional study.

AIM: This study aims to investigate associations of formal childcare with maternal and child outcomes in a large sample of adolescent mothers. BACKGROUND: Forty percent of adolescent girls in Africa are mothers. Increasing evidence shows positive impacts of formal childcare use for adult women, but no known studies in the Global South examine associations for adolescent mothers and their children. METHODS: We interviewed 1046 adolescent mothers and completed developmental assessments with their children (n = 1139) in South Africa's Eastern Cape between 2017 and 2019. Questionnaires measured childcare use, maternal and child outcomes and socio-demographic background variables. Using cross-sectional data, associations between formal childcare use and outcomes were estimated in multivariate multi-level analyses that accounted for individual-level and family-level clustering. RESULTS: Childcare use was associated with higher odds of being in education or employment (AOR: 4.01, 95% CIs: 2.59-6.21, p < .001), grade promotion (AOR: 2.08, 95% CIs: 1.42-3.05, p < .001) and positive future ideation (AOR: 1.58, 95% CIs: 1.01-2.49, p = .047) but no differences in mental health. Childcare use was also associated with better parenting on all measures: positive parenting (AOR: 1.66, 95% CIs: 1.16-2.38, p = .006), better parental limit-setting (AOR: 2.00, 95% CIs: 1.37-2.93, p < .001) and better positive discipline (AOR: 1.77, 95% CIs: 1.21-2.59, p = .003). For the children, there were no differences in temperament or illness, but a significant interaction showed stronger associations between childcare use and better cognitive, language and motor scores with increasing child age (AOR: 5.04, 95% CIs: 1.59-15.96, p = .006). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent mothers might benefit substantially from formal childcare, but causal links need to be explored further. Childcare use was also associated with improved parenting and better child development over time, suggesting positive pathways for children. At an average of $9 per month, childcare provisions for adolescent mothers may offer low-cost opportunities to achieve high returns on health and human capital outcomes in Sub-Saharan African contexts.

The impact of urbanisation on green total factor productivity: Exploring threshold and mediating effects of human capital.

Green development is main direction of high-quality economic development in China. Urbanisation and human capital (HC) are important factors affecting green development. This study examines effects of urbanisation and HC on green total factor productivity (GTFP) using least squares dummy variable model, based on provincial data in China from 2001 to 2019. This study then explored impact of urbanisation on GTFP through HC (educated HC, healthy HC, and HC structure), adopting mediating effect and threshold effect model. The results showed that urbanisation and three types of HC promote GTFP in China and coastal region. In inland region, urbanisation has insignificant impact on GTFP, while educated HC and HC structure improve it. The mediating analysis revealed that educated and healthy HC in China and coastal region enhance promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP, whereas HC structure hinders it. In inland region, only healthy HC stimulates promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP. Considering threshold effect of educated and healthy HC, promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP is weaker than threshold value; but effect is stronger above threshold value. The promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP is stronger when value of HC structure is below the threshold, while effect is weakened as value exceeds threshold value. Policy implications are documented to promote urbanisation in a differentiated manner, increase investment in HC, and strengthen coordination between urbanisation and HC.

Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence.

Economists use micro-based and macro-based approaches to assess the macroeconomic return to population health. The macro-based approach tends to yield estimates that are either negative and close to zero or positive and an order of magnitude larger than the range of estimates derived from the micro-based approach. This presents a micro-macro puzzle regarding the macroeconomic return to health. We reconcile the two approaches by controlling for the indirect effects of health on income per capita, which macro-based approaches usually include but micro-based approaches deliberately omit when isolating the direct income effects of health. Our results show that the macroeconomic return to health lies in the range of plausible microeconomic estimates, demonstrating that both approaches are in fact consistent with one another.

Venture capital, innovation channels, and regional resource dependence: Evidence from China.

Although the literature predominantly emphasises the crucial role of technological innovation in alleviating resource dependence, limited attention has been given to the pivotal role of capital in driving such innovation. As a critical factor in technological advancements and productivity enhancement, venture capital has a substantial function in the utilisation of resources and the development of sustainable energy sources. Drawing upon panel data from 30 provinces in China, this study explores how venture capital and resource dependence are interrelated. Our research reveals that venture capital effectively mitigates regional resource dependence by facilitating increased investment in innovation channels. However, the weakening of regional human resources mitigates venture capital's diminishing impacts on resource dependence. These findings provide valuable insights for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on natural resources and achieve long-term economic sustainability.

Intelligence and its effects on environmental decline: A worldwide analysis.

The research investigates the relationship between intelligence quotient (IQ) and environmental degradation, aiming to understand how cognitive abilities influence environmental outcomes across different nations and time periods. The objective is to examine the impact of intelligence quotient (IQ) on environmental indicators such as carbon emissions, ecological demand, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), seeking insights to inform environmental policy and stewardship. The study utilizes statistical techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and Iteratively Weighted Least Squares (IWLS) to analyze data from 147 nations over the years 2000-2017. These methods are applied to explore the relationship between IQ and environmental metrics while considering other relevant variables. The findings reveal unexpected positive associations between human intelligence quotient and carbon emissions, as well as ecological demand, challenging conventional notions of "delay discounting." Additionally, variations in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis are identified across different pollutants, highlighting the roles of governance and international commitments in mitigating emissions. The study concludes by advocating for the adoption of a "delay discounting culture" to address environmental challenges effectively. It underscores the complex interactions between intelligence, governance, and population dynamics in shaping environmental outcomes, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to achieve sustainability objectives.

Do good carefully: The long-term effects of low-dose DDT exposure in early childhood on education, marriage and employment.

It is well known that malaria has serious adverse effects on humans. Yet, little is known as to how dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which is still used to control malaria, may affect human socioeconomic outcomes in the long run. Utilizing the large-scale indoor residual spraying of low-dose DDT in Taiwan in the 1950s, we estimated the long-term effects of low-dose DDT exposure in early childhood on education, marriage and employment in adulthood. Our identification hinges on the unexpected extension of DDT spraying after malaria had already been largely brought under control. We found that even at a very low dosage, DDT exposure still resulted in discernible negative effects on education and marriage. For employment, although no effect on the probability of working was detected, people exposed to more sprayings in childhood were more likely to work in the agricultural sector that typically requires less human capital.

Grading bias and young adult mental health.

We study exposure to grading bias and provide novel evidence of its impact on mental health. Grading bias, which we interpret as over-grading, is constructed as the residual of final upper secondary school grades having controlled for results in a standardized test, itself not subject to grading leniency. Grading bias is further isolated by considering only within-school variation in over-grading and controlling for prior grades and school production. Using Swedish individual-level register data for individuals graduating from upper secondary school in the years 2001-2004, we show that over-grading has substantial significant protective impacts on the mental health of young adults, but only among female students. That grades themselves, independent of knowledge, substantially impact the production of health highlights an important health production mechanism, and implies that any changes to the design of grading systems must consider these wider health implications.

Life expectancy and human capital: New empirical evidence.

This paper re-examines a well-established hypothesis postulating that life expectancy augments incentives for human capital accumulation, leading to global income differences. A major distinguishing feature of the current study is to estimate heterogeneous panel data models under a common factor framework, which explicitly accounts for parameter heterogeneity, unobserved common factors (UCFs), and variables' non-stationarity. In sharp contrast to most previous studies, I find that the impact of health improvements on human capital accumulation turns out to be imprecisely estimated at conventionally accepted levels of statistical significance. I demonstrate that conventional estimates of the educational returns to rising longevity are derived from estimating misspecified models at least partially due to parameter heterogeneity and the presence of UCFs.

The highly educated live longer: The role of time preference, cognitive ability, and educational plans.

Using Swedish data on a cohort born in 1953, interviewed in 1966 (age 13), and followed with register data until 2018 (age 65), this study shows that one more year of schooling predicts a 17% lower risk of early mortality. Addressing concerns of potential selection bias, the mortality inequality by educational attainment persists when extensive controls are included in the regression. Adding information on background health, gender, socioeconomic variables, as well as adolescents' early educational plans, cognitive ability, and time preferences, only result in a 2-percentage point change in the mortality risk by years of education. Even when adolescents' applications to upper-secondary school and years 6 and 9 grades are controlled for, completion of upper-secondary and university education remain strong predictors of future health. Yet, the study also finds that the measure of future health matters for the stability of the results.

Lasting scars: The impact of depression in early adulthood on subsequent labor market outcomes.

A growing body of evidence indicates that poor health early in life can leave lasting scars on adult health and economic outcomes. While much of this literature focuses on childhood experiences, mechanisms generating these lasting effects-recurrence of illness and interruption of human capital accumulation-are not limited to childhood. In this study, we examine how an episode of depression experienced in early adulthood affects subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that, at age 50, people who had met diagnostic criteria for depression when surveyed at ages 27-35 earn 10% lower hourly wages (conditional on occupation), work 120-180 fewer hours annually, and earn 24% lower annual wage incomes. A portion of this income penalty (21%-39%) occurs because depression is often a chronic condition, recurring later in life. But a substantial share (25%-55%) occurs because depression in early adulthood disrupts human capital accumulation, by reducing work experience and by influencing selection into occupations with skill distributions that offer lower potential for wage growth. These lingering effects of early depression reinforce the importance of early and multifaceted intervention to address depression and its follow-on effects in the workplace.

Revisiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in 208 counties: The roles of trade openness, human capital, renewable energy and natural resource rent.

Achieving carbon neutral requires a comprehensive understanding of the effect of different key factors on carbon emissions. To this end, this study investigates the effect of trade openness, human capital, renewable energy and natural resource rent on carbon emissions within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Second-generation econometric tests, Generalized Method of Moments and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares estimator were developed based on the aggregated dataset of 208 countries from 1990 to 2018. The results show that (i) the EKC hypothesis is validated when the effects of trade openness, human capital, renewable energy consumption, and natural resource rents are considered. The relationship between income level and carbon emissions shows an "inverted U-shaped" curve at the global level. Besides, the real GDP per capita corresponding to the EKC turning point is 19,203$. (ii) Renewable energy consumption and human capital have heterogeneous effects on carbon emissions in before- and after-EKC turning points. Specifically, renewable energy consumption has a better emission reduction effect for countries before the EKC turning point, with effects of -0.4334 and -0.1598, respectively; human capital has a better emission reduction effect for countries after the EKC turning point, with effects of -0.6311 and -0.3398, respectively.(iii) the mitigation effect of trade openness on carbon emissions is only effective in countries with weak decoupling after EKC turning points, with a mitigating effect of -0.0615. However, natural resource rents increase carbon emissions in most countries.

Frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms in Chinese older adults: an eight-year multi-trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms are closely interrelated conditions in the aging population. However, limited research has longitudinally analyzed the concurrent trajectories of these three prominent conditions in older adults in China. This study aimed to explore the eight-year trajectories of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms, and to identify individual-level and structural-level factors associated with the trajectories. METHODS: Four waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018) were used to identify 6,106 eligible older adults. The main measures included frailty by the frailty index constructed using 30 indicators, cognitive impairment by the summary score of immediate and delayed word recall, figure drawing, serial subtraction, and orientation, and depressive symptoms by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Multi-trajectory models identified the trajectories of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms over time. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to estimate the associations between individual-level capital factors and one structural factor (hukou and geographic residency) with the identified trajectories, adjusting for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Four trajectories emerged: (1) worsening frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, depression (14.0%); (2) declining pre-frailty, declining cognition, borderline depression (20.0%); (3) pre-frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, no depression (29.3%); and (4) physically robust, declining cognition, no depression (36.7%). Using the "physically robust, declining cognition, no depression" as the reference, not working, no social activity participant, worse childhood family financial situation, and poorer adult health were most strongly associated with the "worsening frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, depression" trajectory; worse health during childhood had the highest association with the "declining pre-frailty, declining cognition, borderline depression" trajectory; less education, lower household consumption, and rural hukou had the greatest association with the increased likelihood of the "pre-frailty, worsening cognitive impairment, no depression" trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Findings could inform the understanding of the interrelationship of frailty, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms in older adults in China and may help practitioners detect adults at risk for adverse trajectories to implement strategies for proper care.

The demographic dividend is more than an education dividend.

The demographic dividend has long been viewed as an important factor for economic development and provided a rationale for policies aiming at a more balanced age structure through birth control and family planning. Assessing the relative importance of age structure and increases in human capital, recent work has argued that the demographic dividend is related to education and has suggested a dominance of improving education over age structure. Here we reconsider the empirical relevance of shifts in the age distribution for development for a panel of 159 countries over the period 1950 to 2015. Based on a flexible model of age-structured human capital endowments, the results document important interactions between age structure and human capital endowments, suggesting that arguments of clear dominance of education over age structure are unwarranted and lead to potentially misleading policy conclusions. An increase in the working-age population share has a strong and significant positive effect on growth, even conditional on human capital, in line with the conventional notion of a demographic dividend. An increase in human capital only has positive growth effects if combined with a suitable age structure. An increasing share of the most productive age groups has an additional positive effect on economic performance. Finally, the results show considerable heterogeneity in the effect of age structure and human capital for different levels of development. Successful policies for sustainable development should take this heterogeneity into account to avoid detrimental implications of a unidimensional focus on human capital without accounting for demography.

Impacts of educational debt on physical therapist employment trends.

BACKGROUND: Newly graduated physical therapists have high amounts of educational debt. Educational debt may negatively affect job satisfaction, aspirations for professional development, and choice of workplace setting. Research has not shown this association directly, yet it is conceptually supported by the Labor-Search Model. The purpose of this study was to understand the role that educational debt has on additional factors related to job choice in the Labor-Search Model. METHODS: Retrospective data were captured through the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (VLDS) for 12,594 licensed physical therapists within the Commonwealth of Virginia from 2014 to 2020. A fixed effects panel analysis, with inflation-adjusted educational debt as the variable of interest, was conducted to assess whether patterns of professional certifications, volume of work, workplace setting, and job satisfaction were related to educational debt. RESULTS: Educational debt was positively correlated with higher professional degrees (p = 0.009), the number of hours worked per week (p = 0.049), and expected number of years until retirement (p = 0.013). Job satisfaction was statistically significant (p = 0.042) and negatively correlated with educational debt. CONCLUSIONS: Those with higher educational debt appear to have the habit of working more hours per week and have a longer time horizon until retirement. Newly licensed physical therapists with higher amounts of educational debt are more likely to experience this trend. Income and job satisfaction demonstrated an interaction effect on educational debt, such that those with lower levels of income had a stronger, negative relationship between their debt and job satisfaction, as compared to those with higher income.