Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

The impact of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence on cervical cancer incidence rates and trends among women aged 30 years or older-United States, 2001-2019.

Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population-at-risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the US Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100 000 women-34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and ≥80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.

Global, regional, and national health inequalities of Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease in 204 countries, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) and Parkinson's disease (PD), pose growing global health challenges. Socio-demographic and economic development acts paradoxically, complicating the process that determines how governments worldwide designate policies and allocate resources for healthcare. METHODS: We extracted data on ADRD and PD in 204 countries from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Health disparities were estimated using the slope index of inequality (SII), and concentration index (CIX) based on the socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were employed to evaluate temporal trends. RESULTS: Globally, the SII increased from 255.4 [95% confidence interval (CI), 215.2 to 295.5)] in 1990 to 559.3 (95% CI, 497.2 to 621.3) in 2019 for ADRD, and grew from 66.0 (95% CI, 54.9 to 77.2) in 1990 to 132.5 (95% CI, 118.1 to 147.0) in 2019 for PD; CIX rose from 33.7 (95% CI, 25.8 to 41.6) in 1990 to 36.9 (95% CI, 27.8 to 46.1) in 2019 for ADRD, and expanded from 22.2 (95% CI, 21.3 to 23.0) in 1990 to 29.0 (95% CI, 27.8 to 30.3) in 2019 for PD. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years displayed considerable upward trends for ADRD [EAPC = 0.43 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.59)] and PD [0.34 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.38)]. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the burden of ADRD and PD continues to increase with growing health disparities. Variations in health inequalities and the impact of socioeconomic development on disease trends underscored the need for targeted policies and strategies, with heightened awareness, preventive measures, and active management of risk factors.

Pulmonary embolism: incidence and outcomes in a twelve-year historical series, in Tuscany - Italy (2010-2021).

Background: Pulmonary embolism poses a global health concern. Administrative databases serve as valuable sources for broad epidemiological studies on the prevalence and incidence of major diagnoses or diseases. The primary scope is to provide up-to-date insights into Pulmonary Embolism incidence trends, examining shifts in management and outcomes. Design: This retrospective observational study examines a 12-year dataset from hospitals in the Tuscany Region, covering the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: Administrative data from residents aged 18 and older discharged from hospital between 2010 and 2021 were used for the analysis. Results: Hospitalized pulmonary embolism incidence slightly declined from 2010 to 2019 (64.7 to 60.9 x 100,000; p=0.152). Males under 75 showed a higher incidence rate, while females had higher incidence rates in older age groups. In-hospital and 30-day mortality decreased from 2010 to 2019 (p=0.001 and 0.020 respectively). In 2020, 30-day mortality increased (12.4% vs 10.1%, p=0.029), while in-hospital mortality remained stable. One-year mortality was stable from 2010-2019 but increased in 2020 (32.6% vs 29.4%, p=0.037). Considering the multivariable model, one-year mortality is significantly associated with sex, age, and comorbidities. Conclusions: Our study shows that Pulmonary Embolism persists as a relevant burden in Tuscany region, but with improvements in management over the past decade and a decisive change in pharmacological treatment. Gender-related differences emerge, highlighting the need for a gender-specific healthcare approach.

Trends in incidence rates of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas overall and by potential relatedness to human papillomavirus, Costa Rica 2006 to 2015.

In Costa Rica (CR), only one report on head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence trends (1985-2007) has been published and no investigations on the epidemiology of potentially human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and HPV-unrelated HNCs have been done. We examined the age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) and trends of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and compared incidence trends of potentially HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCCs. We obtained all available HNC cases for the period 2006-2015 from the Costa Rican National Cancer Registry of Tumors and the population estimates from the Costa Rican National Institute of Statistics and Census. The analysis was restricted to invasive HNSCCs (n = 1577). IRs and incidence rate ratios were calculated using SEER*Stat software and were age-standardized for the 2010 Costa Rican population. Joinpoint regression analysis program was used to calculate trends and annual percent changes (APCs) in rates. For all HNSCCs, the age-standardized IR was 34.0/million person-years; 95% CI 32.4, 35.8. There was a significant decline in the incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (APC: -5.9% per year; 95% CI -10.8, -0.7) and laryngeal cancer (APC: -5.4% per year; -9.2, 1.5). The incidence trends for hypopharyngeal, oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancers each remained stable over time. HNSCCs were categorized by their potential relatedness to HPV infection. Though the APCs were not statistically significant, IRs of potentially HPV-related HNSCCs trended upward, while HPV-unrelated HNSCCs trended downward. HNSCCs are uncommon in CR and decreased over time. We observed a divergent pattern of decreasing HPV-unrelated with increasing HPV-related HNSCCs that should be further informed by HPV genotyping tumor samples.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018.

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

When schools were open for in-person teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic - the nordic experience on control measures and transmission in schools during the delta wave.

BACKGROUND: Extensive measures to control spread of SARS-CoV-2 have led to limited access to education for millions of children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic. Education and access to schools is vital for children and adolescents' learning, health, and wellbeing. Based on high vaccine uptake and low incidence levels, the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) decided to start the academic year 2021/22 with schools open for in-person teaching and moderate mitigation measures. We describe trends in SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccination coverage among students during the first 12 weeks of the fall semester. METHODS: In this multinational, retrospective, observational study, we have used surveillance and registry data from each of the Nordic countries to describe vaccine uptake (≥12 years), infection incidence (whole population) and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among students. The study period, week 30 to 41 (Jul 26th - Oct 17th), represents the autumn semester from immediately before school started until fall break. In addition, we collected information on mitigation measures applied by the respective countries. RESULTS: There were slight variations between the countries regarding existing infection prevention and control (IPC) measures, testing strategies and vaccination start-up among adolescents. All countries had high vaccine uptake in the adult population, while uptake varied more in the younger age groups. Incidence in the school-aged population differed between countries and seemed to be influenced by both vaccine uptake and test activity. Infection clusters among school-aged children were described for Denmark and Norway, and the number of clusters per week reflected the incidence trend of the country. Most events consisted of only 1-2 cases. Larger clusters appeared more frequently in the higher grades in Norway and in lower grades in Denmark. CONCLUSION: Data from the Nordic countries indicate that vaccination of adults and adolescents, in addition to mitigation measures, enabled full in-person learning. As SARS-CoV-2 infection does not represent a severe medical risk for most children as previously thought, measures targeting this group should be carefully adjusted and kept at a minimum. Our data add to the evidence on incidence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among students in schools open for in-person teaching, and may be valuable for decision makers worldwide.

Cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer incidence and survival trends in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden with implications to treatment.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of cervical cancer has been reduced by organized screening while for vaginal and vulvar cancers no systematic screening has been implemented. All these cancers are associated with human papilloma virus (HPV) infection. We wanted to analyze incidence trends and relative survival in these cancers with specific questions about the possible covariation of incidence, survival changes coinciding with incidence changes and the role of treatment in survival. We used nationwide cancer registry data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to address these questions. METHODS: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1960 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization. RESULTS: In each country the incidence of cervical cancer declined subsequent to rolling out of screening activities. The attained plateau incidence was lowest at 4/100,000 in FI and highest at 10/100,000 in DK and NO. The incidence of vaginal and vulvar cancer remained relatively constant at about 2/100,000. Relative 1-year survival in cervical cancer improved in all countries from low 80%s to high 80%s in the 50-year period, and 5-year survival improved also but at 20% units lower level. Survival gains were found only in patients diagnosed before age 60 years. Survival in vaginal and vulvar cancer followed the same patterns but at a few % units lower level. CONCLUSION: Cervical cancer screening appeared to have reached its limits in the Nordic countries by year 2000. Novel treatments, such as immunotherapy, would be needed to improve survival until HPV vaccination will reach population coverage and boost the global fight against these cancers.

Long term trends of breast cancer incidence according to proliferation status.

BACKGROUND: Long-term breast cancer incidence trends according to proliferation status are poorly described. We studied time-trends in breast cancer incidence, using mitotic count and Ki-67 as markers of proliferation. METHODS: Among 83,298 Norwegian women followed for breast cancer occurrence 1961-2012, 2995 incident breast cancers were diagnosed. Ki-67 was assessed using immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays and mitoses were counted on whole sections. We compared incidence rates according to proliferation status among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimating age-specific incidence rate ratios. We performed multiple imputations to account for unknown proliferation status. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic counts were calculated, according to age and birth year. We performed separate incidence analyses for HER2+ and triple negative breast cancers. RESULTS: Among women aged 40-69 years, incidence rates of tumours with low-proliferative activity were higher among those born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929, according to Ki-67 and mitotic count. Incidence rates of tumours with high-proliferative activity were also higher in women born in 1929 or later compared to before 1929 according to Ki-67, but not according to mitotic count. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic count varied according to age and birth year. In subtype-specific analyses we found an increase of high-proliferative HER2+ tumours according to Ki-67 in women born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a temporal increase in both low- and high-proliferative breast cancers.

Comparison of liver cancer incidence and survival by subtypes across seven high-income countries.

International comparison of liver cancer survival has been hampered due to varying standards and degrees for morphological verification and differences in coding practices. This article aims to compare liver cancer survival across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership's (ICBP) jurisdictions whilst trying to ensure that the estimates are comparable through a range of sensitivity analyses. Liver cancer incidence data from 21 jurisdictions in 7 countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) were obtained from population-based registries for 1995-2014. Cases were categorised based on histological classification, age-groups, basis of diagnosis and calendar period. Age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) per 100 000 and net survival at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis were estimated. Liver cancer incidence rates increased over time across all ICBP jurisdictions, particularly for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the largest relative increase in the United Kingdom, increasing from 1.3 to 4.4 per 100 000 person-years between 1995 and 2014. Australia had the highest age-standardised 1-year and 3-year net survival for all liver cancers combined (48.7% and 28.1%, respectively) in the most recent calendar period, which was still true for morphologically verified tumours when making restrictions to ensure consistent coding and classification. Survival from liver cancers is poor in all countries. The incidence of HCC is increasing alongside the proportion of nonmicroscopically verified cases over time. Survival estimates for all liver tumours combined should be interpreted in this context. Care is needed to ensure that international comparisons are performed on appropriately comparable patients, with careful consideration of coding practice variations.