Ungulates mitigate the effects of drought and shrub encroachment on the fire hazard of Mediterranean oak woodlands.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of droughts and the risk of severe wildfires, which can interact with shrub encroachment and browsing by wild ungulates. Wild ungulate populations are expanding due, among other factors, to favorable habitat changes resulting from land abandonment or land-use changes. Understanding how ungulate browsing interacts with drought to affect woody plant mortality, plant flammability, and fire hazard is especially relevant in the context of climate change and increasing frequency of wildfires. The aim of this study is to explore the combined effects of cumulative drought, shrub encroachment, and ungulate browsing on the fire hazard of Mediterranean oak woodlands in Portugal. In a long-term (18 years) ungulate fencing exclusion experiment that simulated land abandonment and management neglect, we investigated the population dynamics of the native shrub Cistus ladanifer, which naturally dominates the understory of woodlands and is browsed by ungulates, comparing areas with (no fencing) and without (fencing) wild ungulate browsing. We also modeled fire behavior in browsed and unbrowsed plots considering drought and nondrought scenarios. Specifically, we estimated C. ladanifer population density, biomass, and fuel load characteristics, which were used to model fire behavior in drought and nondrought scenarios. Overall, drought increased the proportion of dead C. ladanifer shrub individuals, which was higher in the browsed plots. Drought decreased the ratio of live to dead shrub plant material, increased total fuel loading, shrub stand flammability, and the modeled fire parameters, that is, rate of surface fire spread, fireline intensity, and flame length. However, total fuel load and fire hazard were lower in browsed than unbrowsed plots, both in drought and nondrought scenarios. Browsing also decreased the population density of living shrubs, halting shrub encroachment. Our study provides long-term experimental evidence showing the role of wild ungulates in mitigating drought effects on fire hazard in shrub-encroached Mediterranean oak woodlands. Our results also emphasize that the long-term effects of land abandonment can interact with climate change drivers, affecting wildfire hazard. This is particularly relevant given the increasing incidence of land abandonment.

Cessation of grazing causes biodiversity loss and homogenization of soil food webs.

There is widespread concern that cessation of grazing in historically grazed ecosystems is causing biotic homogenization and biodiversity loss. We used 12 montane grassland sites along an 800 km north-south gradient across the UK, to test whether cessation of grazing affects local α- and ß-diversity of below-ground food webs. We show cessation of grazing leads to strongly decreased α-diversity of most groups of soil microbes and fauna, particularly of relatively rare taxa. By contrast, the ß-diversity varied between groups of soil organisms. While most soil microbial communities exhibited increased homogenization after cessation of grazing, we observed decreased homogenization for soil fauna after cessation of grazing. Overall, our results indicate that exclusion of domesticated herbivores from historically grazed montane grasslands has far-ranging negative consequences for diversity of below-ground food webs. This underscores the importance of grazers for maintaining the diversity of below-ground communities, which play a central role in ecosystem functioning.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria.

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

The contribution of landscape features, climate and topography in shaping taxonomical and functional diversity of avian communities in a heterogeneous Alpine region.

Understanding the effects of landscape composition and configuration, climate, and topography on bird diversity is necessary to identify distribution drivers, potential impacts of land use changes, and future conservation strategies. We surveyed bird communities in a study area located in the Central Alps (Autonomous Province of South Tyrol, northeast Italy), by means of point counts and investigated taxonomic and functional diversity at two spatial scales along gradients of land use/land cover (LULC) intensity and elevation. We also explored how environmental variables influence bird traits and red-list categories. Models combining drivers of different types were highly supported, pointing towards synergetic effects of different types of environmental variables on bird communities. The model containing only LULC compositional variables was the most supported one among the single-group models: LULC composition plays a crucial role in shaping local biodiversity and hence bird communities, even across broad landscape gradients. Particularly relevant were wetlands, open habitats, agricultural mosaics made up of small habitat patches and settlements, ecotonal and structural elements in agricultural settings, and continuous forests. To conserve bird diversity in the Alps, planning and management practices promoting and maintaining small fields, structural elements, and a mosaic of different LULC types should be supported, while preserving continuous forests at the same time. Additionally, pastures, extensively used meadows, and wetlands are key to conservation. These strategies might mitigate the impacts of global change on bird diversity in the Alps and in other European mountain areas.

Carbon sequestration and water yield tradeoffs following restoration of abandoned agricultural lands in Mediterranean mountains.

Abandoned cropland areas have the potential to contribute to climate change mitigation through natural revegetation and afforestation programs. These programs increase above and belowground carbon sequestration by expanding forest cover. However, this potential to mitigate climate change often involves tradeoffs between carbon sequestration and water availability. Particularly in a water limited environments such as the Mediterranean region, any loss of recharge to groundwater or streamflow can have critical societal consequences. In this study, we used an ecohydrologic model, Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), to quantify these tradeoffs for land management plans in abandoned cropland areas in Mediterranean mountains. Changes to Net Ecosystem Production (NEP), water yield and Water-Use Efficiency (WUE) under different land management and climate scenarios were estimated for Arnás, a catchment with similar geology, vegetation and climate to many of the locations targeted for land abandonment restoration in the Spanish Pyrenees. Results showed significant changes to both carbon and water fluxes related to land management, while changes related to a warming scenario were not significant. Afforestation scenarios showed the highest average annual carbon sequestration rates (112 g C·m-2·yr-1) but were also associated with the lowest water yield (runoff coefficient of 26%) and water use efficiency (1.4 g C·mm-1) compared to natural revegetation (-27 g C·m-2·yr-1, 50%, 1.7 g C·mm-1 respectively). Under both restoration scenarios, results showed that the catchment ecosystem is a carbon sink during mid-February to July, coinciding with peak monthly transpiration and WUE, while during the rest of the year the catchment ecosystem is a carbon source. These results contribute to understanding carbon and water tradeoffs in Mediterranean mountains and can help adapt restoration plans to address both carbon sequestration and water management objectives.

Collaborative agroforestry to mitigate wildfires in Extremadura, Spain: land manager motivations and perceptions of outcomes, benefits, and policy needs.

Wildfires are increasing in severity, and magnitude in the Mediterranean Basin in recent years, reaching a yearly average of 450 000 ha over the last decade. Drivers include climate change, land-use change, and land abandonment. Wildfire mitigation requires landscape-level action as impact to each parcel is affected by the conditions of the others. We conducted a case study of a regional-level initiative that develops community efforts to mitigate wildfires through silvo-pastoral agroforestry systems, using an integrated landscape management approach. This approach involves collaboration among stakeholders to achieve multiple objectives. In order to derive insights into its potential, we asked participating land managers: (1) What motivates their participation?, (2) How do they perceive initiative outcomes?, and as urban outmigrants with non-traditional goals are increasing in rural areas, (3) Do responses differ between rural and neo-rural participants? Our results show that managers feel highly affected by wildfires and are strongly motivated to reduce wildfire risk. Land abandonment and inappropriate policy were major concerns. The initiative was seen to have positive outcomes for individual participants as well as the region, and to stimulate community connectedness. We conclude that fit to local contexts, integrated landscape management can be a well-received approach to reducing wildfire risk. Agroforestry systems in Extremadura can act as "productive fuelbreaks" that reduce fire risk over extensive areas, while restoring traditional landscapes. We suggest that programs to reduce wildfire risk can also be used as a leverage point for financing rural revival and provision of multiple ecosystem services. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10457-022-00771-6.

Modelling agricultural land abandonment in a fine spatial resolution multi-level land-use model: An application for the EU.

In the majority of EU Member States, agricultural land is expected to decrease not only due to land-use changes in favour of urban expansion and afforestation but also to land abandonment processes. The knowledge on location and extent of agricultural land abandonment is relevant for estimating local external effects and adapting policy interventions. Currently, multi-level land-use models are able to capture determined processes of demand-driven redevelopment. However, land abandonment is much more difficult to capture because of its more ambiguous definition and the lack of data on its spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to explicitly model agricultural abandonment as a choice of disinvestment, which in turn is embedded in a utility-based land-use modelling framework that projects land-use changes for the EU and the UK. Validation exercises using observed spatial distribution of abandoned farmland show that the proposed method allows to model abandonment with acceptable accuracy.

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan.

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human-wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human-wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human-wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human-wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human-wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human-wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.

Una Estrategia para el Manejo de Fauna en Áreas Rurales Despobladas de Japón Resumen Las distribuciones geográficas históricas de algunos animales silvestres se han reestablecido en muchos países desarrollados. Sin embargo, este restablecimiento ha derivado en un incremento del conflicto humano - fauna en los ecosistemas agroforestales. En Japón, el conflicto humano - fauna, como el asalto de cultivos y los impactos ecológicos de los primates y ungulados, es un problema serio en las áreas rurales despobladas debido a la expansión de la distribución y al incremento en abundancia de estos animales. Está pronosticado que la población humana de Japón decline en un 24% para 2050 y ∼20% de los establecimientos agrícolas estarán completamente despoblados. Bajo este escenario, las presiones antropogénicas sobre la fauna (como la caza y la alteración del hábitat) continuarán disminuyendo y el conflicto humano - fauna incrementará debido a la recuperación de la fauna. El gobierno local de Japón planea retrasar la recuperación de las distribuciones, prevenir el restablecimiento de las especies o remover a los mamíferos mayores en proceso de recolonización por medio del exterminio. Sin embargo, esta estrategia no es rentable y la escasez de mano de obra en las comunidades despobladas hace que no sea una estrategia factible. Además, la supresión de fauna impide la recuperación de las funciones ecológicas, por lo que terminaría por degradar la biodiversidad regional. La reducción de la presión sobre la fauna que va de la mano con la despoblación humana prevendrá la recuperación de cualquier estado pasado de la interacción humano - fauna. Sugerimos que las áreas usadas por humanos en los paisajes rurales queden agregadas en ciudades compactas y que se apliquen estrategias de tierras compartidas en las zonas de transición entre los asentamientos humanos y las tierras despobladas. La concentración de los esfuerzos de manejo en las ciudades compactas podría disminuir efectivamente el conflicto humano - fauna en lugar de intensificar las presiones humanas. La reforestación de las tierras despobladas podría derivar en la recuperación del hábitat de la fauna, sus funciones ambientales y de la biodiversidad regional debido a la minimización de los efectos antropogénicos (estrategia de tierra parsimoniosa). El balance entre la resolución del conflicto humano - fauna y el retorno ecológico a la vida silvestre podría convertirse en una tarea nueva y exigente para los administradores regionales de la fauna.

Labor migration and farmland abandonment in rural China: Empirical results and policy implications.

Farmland abandonment is a universal socio-economic phenomenon in various countries in the world. However, there is a lack of the large-sample empirical research on rural households' farmland abandonment in China, and few studies have explored the quantitative influences of labor migration on rural households' farmland abandonment. This study uses the survey data of 8031 rural households from 27 provinces (cities) in China. It analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of labor migration and farmland abandonment on the basis of provinces (cities). Moreover, it constructs the iv-probit models and the iv-tobit models to quantitatively explore the influences of off-farm employment and part-time employment on rural households' farmland abandonment. The results show that: Labor migration and farmland abandonment in various provinces (cities) of China present the trend of spatial area agglomeration. The regional differences of off-farm laborers are significant, whereas the regional differences of part-time laborers are relatively small; Labor migration would promote rural households' farmland abandonment. When other conditions remain unchanged, with every 10% increase in off-farm employment and part-time employment, the average probability of rural households' farmland abandonment increases by 4% and 5%, respectively, and the average farmland area that rural household abandons increases by 3% and 5%, respectively. This study can enhance the understanding of the relationship between labor migration and rural households' farmland abandonment in China, so as to provide reference for the rational allocation of labor resources and the formulation of the policies related to ensuring food security.

Land surface greening suggests vigorous woody regrowth throughout European semi-natural vegetation.

The satellite record has revealed substantial land surface "greening" in the northern hemisphere over recent decades. Process-based Earth system models (ESMs) attribute enhanced vegetation productivity (greening) to CO2 fertilisation. However, the models poorly reproduce observed spatial patterns of greening, suggesting that they ignore crucial processes. Here, we explore whether fine-scale land cover dynamics, as modified by ecological and land-use processes, can explain the discrepancy between models and satellite-based estimates of greening. We used 500 m satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) to quantify greening. We focus on semi-natural vegetation in Europe, and distinguish between conservation areas and unprotected land. Within these ecological and land-use categories, we then explored the relationships between vegetation change and major climatic gradients. Despite the relatively short time-series (15 years), we found a strong overall increase in LAI (i.e., greening) across all European semi-natural vegetation types. The spatial pattern of vegetation change identifies land-use change, particularly land abandonment, as a major initiator of vegetation change both in- and outside of protected areas. The strongest LAI increases were observed in mild climates, consistent with more vigorous woody regrowth after cessation of intensive management in these environments. Surprisingly, rates of vegetation change within protected areas did not differ significantly from unprotected semi-natural vegetation. Overall, the detected LAI increases are consistent with previous, coarser-scale, studies. The evidence indicates that woody regrowth following land abandonment is an important driver of land surface greening throughout Europe. The results offer an explanation for the large discrepancies between ESM-derived and satellite-derived greening estimates and thus generate new avenues for improving the ESMs on which we rely for crucial climate forecasts.

Hindcasting the impacts of land-use changes on bird communities with species distribution models of Bird Atlas data.

Habitat loss and degradation induced by human development are among the major threats to biodiversity worldwide. In this study, we tested our ability to predict the response of bird communities (128 species) to land-use changes in southern Quebec (~483,100 km2 ) over the last 30 yr (between 1984-1989 and 2010-2014) by using species distribution models (299,302 occurrences in 30,408 locations) from a hindcasting perspective. Results were grouped by functional guilds to infer potential impacts on ecosystem services, and to relate model transferability (i.e., ability of our models to be generalized to other times and scales) to specific functional and life-history traits. Overall, our models were able to accurately predict, both in space and time, habitat suitability for 69% of species, especially for granivorous, nonmigrant, tree-nesting species, and species that are tied to agricultural areas under intensive use. These findings indicate that model transferability depends upon specific functional and life-history traits, providing further evidence that species' ecologies affect the ability of models to accurately predict bird distributions. Declining bird species were mostly short-distance migrants that were associated with open habitats (agricultural and nonproductive forest) with aerial insectivorous or granivorous diets, which may be related to agricultural intensification and land abandonment. Land-use changes were positive for some forest bird species that were mainly associated with mixed and deciduous forests, generalist diets and tree-nesting strategies. Yet cavity-nesting birds have suffered substantial reductions in their distributions, suggesting that cumulative effects of intensive logging and wildfires on mature forests pose a threat for forest-specialist species. Habitat suitability changes predicted by our coarse-scale species distribution models partially agreed with the long-term trends reported by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Our findings confirm land-use change as a key driving force for shaping bird communities in southern Quebec, together with the need to explicitly incorporate it into global change scenarios that better inform decision-makers on conservation and management.

Linking trajectories of land change, land degradation processes and ecosystem services.

Land Degradation (LD) is a complex phenomenon resulting in a progressive reduction in the capacity of providing ecosystem services (ES). Landscape transformations promoting an unsustainable use of land often reveal latent processes of LD. An evaluation carried out in respect to the different ecosystem services is nowadays regarded as the most appropriate approach for assessing the effects of LD. The aim of this study is to develop an evaluation framework for identifying the linkages between land changes, LD processes and ES and suggesting Sustainable Land Management (SLM) options suited to reverse (or mitigate) LD impact. A SWOT analysis was carried out with the aim to identify internal and external factors that are favorable (or unfavorable) to achieve the proposed SLM actions. The study areas are the Fortore valley and the Valpadana, in Italy. The main trajectory identified for the Fortore valley is related to land abandonment due to population aging and the progressive emigration started in the 1950s. The most relevant LD processes are soil erosion and geomorphological instability, affecting regulating services such as natural hazard and erosion control. SLM options should consider interventions to contrast geomorphological instability, the promotion of climate smart agriculture and of typical products, and an efficient water resources management. The main trajectories identified for Valpadana are related to urban expansion and farmland abandonment and, as a consequence, land take due to anthropogenic pressure and woodland expansion as the main LD process. The reduction of food production was identified as the most relevant provisioning service affected. SLM should envisage best practices finalized to water saving and soil consumption reduction: efficient irrigation solutions, climate smart agriculture and zero sealing practices. This study highlights the diagnostic value of the suggested approach where LD processes are elicited from land change trajectories determining specific impacts on ES and providing operational support for the implementation of SLM options.

Mapping and assessment of ecosystem health in the Vilnius functional zone (Lithuania).

Urban expansion is a global phenomenon that impacts biodiversity loss and climate change. Soil sealing increases land degradation and the ecosystem services supply. This degradation also negatively affects ecosystem health, essential to make cities more sustainable and liveable. This work aims to study the ecosystem health spatiotemporal evolution (1990, 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018) in the Vilnius (Lithuania) functional zone, using the vigour, organisation and resilience (VOR) method. The results showed that ecosystem health model validation was acceptable (r = -0.761; p < 0.01). Between 1990 and 2018, an increase (18.37 %) in ecosystem vigour was observed. The values were significantly higher in 2006, 2012 and 2018 than in 1990 and 2000. We identified a decrease between 1990 and 2018 regarding ecosystem organisation (7.15 %) and resilience (9.92 %). However, no significant differences between the years were identified. Ecosystem health decreased (11.49 %) between 1990 and 2018, mainly between 2012 and 2018. Ecosystem health values in 2018 were significantly lower than those identified in the previous years. The lowest values of ecosystem vigour, organisation and resilience were identified in the Vilnius city centre, while the highest was observed in the Vilnius functional zone. From 1990 to 2018, ecosystem vigour increased in some elderships located on the fringe of the studied area due to land abandonment and forest plantations. Simultaneously, a decrease in ecosystem organisation and resilience in the elderships located in Vilnius city centre was observed due to urban sprawl and the consequent landscape fragmentation. This negatively impacted ecosystem health, overshadowing the positive trend observed in ecosystem vigour. Different processes (e.g., urban sprawl, land abandonment, forest plantations) occurred in the Vilnius functional zone. It is essential to halt urban expansion and its adverse impacts on ecosystem health, city sustainability and liveability.

Sustaining altitude pastures in mountain landscapes-a fuzzy cognitive model approach.

Similarly to other European mountain areas, in Serra da Estrela the grazing pressure has been reducing due to social and economic drivers that have pushed shepherds and sheep to the foothill, or plainly out of the sector. Shrub encroachment on commons and other previously grazed land is one of the most tangible effects of pastoral abandonment in Serra de Estrela. The impacts of the resulting increase in landscape continuity and biomass availability were made clear in the severe fires of 2017 and 2022. As fire risk is likely to increase with climate change, it becomes urgent to understand what strategies can be deployed to keep fragmentation in these landscapes. Key actors such as shepherds should be involved in this discussion to understand their perceptions, points of view and reasons for abandoning upland pastures. In this study, we use fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify the key variables and mechanisms affecting the pastoral system according to local shepherds. In our study, we developed with local stakeholders a framework outlining the local pastoral system. Based on that, we carried out the fuzzy cognitive mapping collecting 14 questionnaires. We found that shepherds' income is a central issue, but that it is highly dependent on many factors. Increasing the Common Agricultural Policy payments alone is not enough to incentivise the use of upland pastures. More targeted strategies, such as more support for shrub clearing, and direct payments conditional to transhumance are more impactful. Despite a contentious discourse between conservation and shepherding values in Serra da Estrela, we find that shepherd's values are aligned with biodiversity conservation and a potential nature-based solution for minimizing fire risk through woody fuel management. This opens up possibilities for new governance strategies, that put Serra da Estrela's social, environmental and cultural values at its core.

Can natural forest expansion contribute to Europe's restoration policy agenda? An interdisciplinary assessment.

Natural forest expansion (NFE), that is, the establishment of secondary forest on non-forested land through natural succession, has substantially contributed to the widespread expansion of forests in Europe over the last few decades. So far, EU policies have largely neglected the potential of NFE for meeting policy objectives on restoration. Synthesising recent interdisciplinary research, this paper assesses the challenges and opportunities of NFE in view of contributing to European forest and ecosystem restoration. Specifically, we discuss the potential for supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and forestry and economic use, summarize the current knowledge about societal perceptions and the policymaking on NFE, and make policy recommendations to better use the potential of NFE. We conclude that NFE has the potential to contribute to the European restoration policy agenda if local contexts and possible trade-offs are properly considered.

Analysis of the spatial differentiation and driving force of arable land abandonment and non-grain in the hilly mountainous areas of Gannan.

Food security has a bearing on national development and people's livelihoods and is an important guarantee of social stability for national development. The problems of arable land abandonment and non-grain are becoming more and more serious, and national food security is difficult to guarantee, which will seriously hinder the forward development of China's society and economy. Taking Ruijin City of Jiangxi Province as an example, this study calculated the abandonment level and non-grain level of arable land in Ruijin City respectively from two aspects, and explored the spatial differentiation law of farmland abandonment and non-grain level in the hilly and mountainous areas of southern Jiangxi Province by using spatial autocorrelation and cold and hot spot analysis methods, and the causes of arable land abandonment and non-grain spatial differentiation in the hilly mountainous areas of Gannan were revealed by the methods of Geodetector factor detection and interaction detection. Conclusions of the study: (1) Ruijin City, the abandoned area was 1216.73 hm2, the abandonment rate of each village ranged from 0.01 % to 50.62 %, and the comprehensive abandonment rate was 4.90 %; the area of non-grain was 2937.27 hm2, and the rate of non-grain of each village ranged from 0.01 % to 100.00 %, and the comprehensive non-grain rate was 11.83 %. The area of non-grain was 2937.27 hm2, and the rate of non-grain in each village ranged from 0.01 % to 100.00 %, and the comprehensive rate of non-grain was 11.83 %. (2) The phenomenon of abandonment of arable land and non-grain in Gannan hilly and mountainous areas has a certain clustering and driving effect in space. Globally, the phenomena of arable land abandonment and non-grain in Ruijin City are positively correlated, with the global Moran's I of arable land abandonment rate being 0.05, and the global Moran's I of arable land non-grain being 0.73. (3) Whether or not arable land in the hilly mountainous areas of Gannan is abandoned is affected by the combination of socioeconomics, natural resources, farming conditions, and economic location, with elevation, the degree of arable land contiguity, and population density being the dominant factors. The interaction of elevation, degree of concentration and contiguity, field regularity, and per capita arable land area increased the spatial variability of arable land abandonment in the hilly mountainous areas of Gannan. Whether the phenomenon of non-grain occurs or not is affected by socio-economic conditions, farming conditions and economic location, of which the proportion of paddy fields, land transfer price, arable land area, and urban-rural gradient are the dominant factors. The proportion of paddy land, the price of land transfer, the area of arable land, and the urban-rural gradient interact with each other, and the tendency of arable land to be planted with non-grain crops is more serious.

Global change effects on Mediterranean small mammal population dynamics: Demography of Algerian mice (Mus spretus) along land use and climate gradients.

Climate and land use change are key global change drivers shaping future species' distributions and abundances. Negative interactions among effects of drivers can reduce the accuracy of models aimed at predicting such distributions. Here we analyse how climate and land use affected population dynamics and demography of the Algerian mouse (Mus spretus), an open-land thermophilic Mediterranean small mammal. Change to a warmer and drier climate would facilitate the expansion of the species, whereas landscape change (forest encroachment following extensive land abandonment) would produce its retreat. We correlated abundance and demography parameters computed from captures obtained in 16 plots during a 10-years period (2008-2017; SEMICE small mammal monitoring) with climate, vegetation and land use change. Climate became warmer and dryer, and afforestation due to encroachment occurred in 81 % of plots. Expected positive effects of climate warming, derived from bioclimatic niche models, were counterbalanced by negative effects of both increasing hydric deficit and changes in vegetation and landscape structure. Abundance showed a slight but significant decline (-5 %). The species' range was more resilient to change, as shown by occupancy analyses, apparently due to strong local effects of vegetation structure on occupancy. This result highlighted that negative population trends would not necessarily produce range retractions. Simultaneously analysing both abundance trends and occupancy patterns may thus allow for deeper understanding and more accurate predictions of expected population trends in response to interacting global change drivers.

Do Disease and Pest Control Outsourcing Services Reduce Arable Land Abandonment? Evidence from China.

Arable land abandonment has been occurring in China in recent years. Although an emerging number of studies have investigated the impacts of urbanization and labor migration on arable land abandonment, little is known about what roles agricultural outsourcing services play in reducing arable land abandonment. Based on the data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) in both 2014 and 2016, this study employs a two-stage least squares method to address the potential endogeneity issue and sheds some light on the impact of agricultural outsourcing services for controlling disease and pests in arable land abandonment in China. The empirical results show that disease and pest control outsourcing services (DPCOS) significantly decrease the size of household-level arable land abandonment by 6.59% on average. More specifically, DPCOS mainly reduce the arable land abandonment in regions with the labor shortages, while this does not lead to a significant decrease in arable land abandonment in regions characterized by poor soil quality and steep slopes. Therefore, we may conclude that DPCOS could contribute to the reuse of farmlands suitable for cultivation and the exit of farmlands unsuitable for cultivation.

The Influence of Land Attachment on Land Abandonment from the Perspective of Generational Difference: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China.

The deepening of rural population aging and the lack of labor transfer cause the phenomenon of land abandonment to become more serious, which threatens regional and even national food security. Based on the survey data of 540 farmers in Sichuan Province, the theoretical analysis framework of land attachment, intergenerational difference and land abandonment was constructed, and Probit and Tobit models were constructed to empirically analyze the influence of land attachment and intergenerational difference on land abandonment. Research results show that: (1) 10.9% of the farmers abandoned their arable land, with an average area of 0.17 mu; the interviewed farmers are mainly of the middle-aged generation; the scores of the three dimensions of farmers' land attachment were all at the above average level. (2) Land dependence has no significant effect on land abandonment, while satisfaction and embeddedness have significant negative effects on land abandonment. (3) There are generational differences in the influence of land attachment on land abandonment. Among them, the land attachment of the middle-aged generation had no significant effect on land abandonment; the satisfaction and embeddedness of the older generation of farmers have negative effects on land abandonment; the satisfaction of the new-generation farmers has a significant negative effect on farmland abandonment. Based on this research, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: (1) Pay attention to the emotional appeals of farmers and improve their well-being. (2) Cultivate new types of agricultural business entities and stimulate the potential of new human resources.

What Drives Land Abandonment in Core Grain-Producing Areas? Evidence from China.

Food security remains a major issue for developing countries. Reducing arable land abandonment (ALA) is crucial to ensuring food security. In China, the 'decline in both quantity and quality' of arable land resources, especially in major grain-producing areas, has become increasingly serious. This study uses fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to explore the core conditions and combinations of paths leading to explicit and implicit abandonment using 30 typical cases in the main grain-producing areas of Hubei Province. The results show that (1) three combined pathways lead to explicit ALA (EALA) and that two pathways lead to implicit ALA (IALA); (2) laborer health (LH) is the core condition leading to EALA; and (3) LH, agricultural laborer (AL), per capita income (PCI) and social relationships (SRs) are the core conditions leading to IALA. To effectively alleviate ALA, the government should improve production conditions, pay attention to laborer health issues, improve agricultural returns and strengthen food security publicity and guidance, thereby promoting the rational use of arable land in these areas. The findings in this study link the changes in arable land use and provide a reference for other developing countries in ensuring food security.