Bayesian total-evidence dating revisits sloth phylogeny and biogeography: a cautionary tale on morphological clock analyses.

Combining morphological and molecular characters through Bayesian total-evidence dating allows inferring the phylogenetic and timescale framework of both extant and fossil taxa, while accounting for the stochasticity and incompleteness of the fossil record. Such an integrative approach is particularly needed when dealing with clades such as sloths (Mammalia: Folivora), for which developmental and biomechanical studies have shown high levels of morphological convergence whereas molecular data can only account for a limited percentage of their total species richness. Here, we propose an alternative hypothesis of sloth evolution that emphasizes the pervasiveness of morphological convergence and the importance of considering the fossil record and an adequate taxon sampling in both phylogenetic and biogeographic inferences. Regardless of different clock models and morphological datasets, the extant sloth Bradypus is consistently recovered as a megatherioid, and Choloepus as a mylodontoid, in agreement with molecular-only analyses. The recently extinct Caribbean sloths (Megalocnoidea) are found to be a monophyletic sister-clade of Megatherioidea, in contrast to previous phylogenetic hypotheses. Our results contradict previous morphological analyses and further support the polyphyly of "Megalonychidae", whose members were found in five different clades. Regardless of taxon sampling and clock models, the Caribbean colonization of sloths is compatible with the exhumation of islands along Aves Ridge and its geological time frame. Overall, our total-evidence analysis illustrates the difficulty of positioning highly incomplete fossils, although a robust phylogenetic framework was recovered by an a posteriori removal of taxa with high percentages of missing characters. Elimination of these taxa improved topological resolution by reducing polytomies and increasing node support. However, it introduced a systematic and geographic bias because most of these incomplete specimens are from northern South America. This is evident in biogeographic reconstructions, which suggest Patagonia as the area of origin of many clades when taxa are underrepresented, but Amazonia and/or Central and Southern Andes when all taxa are included. More generally, our analyses demonstrate the instability of topology and divergence time estimates when using different morphological datasets and clock models, and thus caution against making macroevolutionary inferences when node support is weak or when uncertainties in the fossil record are not considered.

Skyline Fossilized Birth-Death Model is Robust to Violations of Sampling Assumptions in Total-Evidence Dating.

Several total-evidence dating studies under the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model have produced very old age estimates, which are not supported by the fossil record. This phenomenon has been termed "deep root attraction (DRA)." For two specific data sets, involving divergence time estimation for the early radiations of ants, bees, and wasps (Hymenoptera) and of placental mammals (Eutheria), it has been shown that the DRA effect can be greatly reduced by accommodating the fact that extant species in these trees have been sampled to maximize diversity, so-called diversified sampling. Unfortunately, current methods to accommodate diversified sampling only consider the extreme case where it is possible to identify a cut-off time such that all splits occurring before this time are represented in the sampled tree but none of the younger splits. In reality, the sampling bias is rarely this extreme and may be difficult to model properly. Similar modeling challenges apply to the sampling of the fossil record. This raises the question of whether it is possible to find dating methods that are more robust to sampling biases. Here, we show that the skyline FBD (SFBD) process, where the diversification and fossil-sampling rates can vary over time in a piecewise fashion, provides age estimates that are more robust to inadequacies in the modeling of the sampling process and less sensitive to DRA effects. In the SFBD model we consider, rates in different time intervals are either considered to be independent and identically distributed or assumed to be autocorrelated following an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Through simulations and reanalyses of Hymenoptera and Eutheria data, we show that both variants of the SFBD model unify age estimates under random and diversified sampling assumptions. The SFBD model can resolve DRA by absorbing the deviations from the sampling assumptions into the inferred dynamics of the diversification process over time. Although this means that the inferred diversification dynamics must be interpreted with caution, taking sampling biases into account, we conclude that the SFBD model represents the most robust approach currently available for addressing DRA in total-evidence dating.

Rocks and clocks revised: New promises and challenges in dating the primate tree of life.

In recent years, multiple technological and methodological advances have increased our ability to estimate phylogenies, leading to more accurate dating of the primate tree of life. Here we provide an overview of the limitations and potentials of some of these advancements and discuss how dated phylogenies provide the crucial temporal scale required to understand primate evolution. First, we review new methods, such as the total-evidence dating approach, that promise a better integration between the fossil record and molecular data. We then explore how the ever-increasing availability of genomic-level data for more primate species can impact our ability to accurately estimate timetrees. Finally, we discuss more recent applications of mutation rates to date divergence times. We highlight example studies that have applied these approaches to estimate divergence dates within primates. Our goal is to provide a critical overview of these new developments and explore the promises and challenges of their application in evolutionary anthropology.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Tip-Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process.

Bayesian molecular dating is widely used to study evolutionary timescales. This procedure usually involves phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data, with fossil-based calibrations applied as age constraints on internal nodes of the tree. An alternative approach is tip-dating, which explicitly includes fossil data in the analysis. This can be done, for example, through the joint analysis of molecular data from present-day taxa and morphological data from both extant and fossil taxa. In the context of tip-dating, an important development has been the fossilized birth-death process, which allows non-contemporaneous tips and sampled ancestors while providing a model of lineage diversification for the prior on the tree topology and internal node times. However, tip-dating with fossils faces a number of considerable challenges, especially, those associated with fossil sampling and evolutionary models for morphological characters. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model. We simulated fossil occurrences and the evolution of nucleotide sequences and morphological characters under a wide range of conditions. Our analyses of these data show that the number and the maximum age of fossil occurrences have a greater influence than the degree of among-lineage rate variation or the number of morphological characters on estimates of node times and the tree topology. Tip-dating with the fossilized birth-death model generally performs well in recovering the relationships among extant taxa but has difficulties in correctly placing fossil taxa in the tree and identifying the number of sampled ancestors. The method yields accurate estimates of the ages of the root and crown group, although the precision of these estimates varies with the probability of fossil occurrence. The exclusion of morphological characters results in a slight overestimation of node times, whereas the exclusion of nucleotide sequences has a negative impact on inference of the tree topology. Our results provide an overview of the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model, which will inform further development of the method and its application to key questions in evolutionary biology.

Total-Evidence Dating under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process.

Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also incorporate additional sources of information. Here, we take advantage of this and expand the analysis to include information about fossilization and sampling processes. Our work is based on the recently described fossilized birth-death (FBD) process, which has been used to model speciation, extinction, and fossilization rates that can vary over time in a piecewise manner. So far, sampling of extant and fossil taxa has been assumed to be either complete or uniformly at random, an assumption which is only valid for a minority of data sets. We therefore extend the FBD process to accommodate diversified sampling of extant taxa, which is standard practice in studies of higher-level taxa. We verify the implementation using simulations and apply it to the early radiation of Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, and bees). Previous total-evidence dating analyses of this data set were based on a simple uniform tree prior and dated the initial radiation of extant Hymenoptera to the late Carboniferous (309 Ma). The analyses using the FBD prior under diversified sampling, however, date the radiation to the Triassic and Permian (252 Ma), slightly older than the age of the oldest hymenopteran fossils. By exploring a variety of FBD model assumptions, we show that it is mainly the accommodation of diversified sampling that causes the push toward more recent divergence times. Accounting for diversified sampling thus has the potential to close the long-discussed gap between rocks and clocks. We conclude that the explicit modeling of fossilization and sampling processes can improve divergence time estimates, but only if all important model aspects, including sampling biases, are adequately addressed.

Using more than the oldest fossils: dating osmundaceae with three Bayesian clock approaches.

A major concern in molecular clock dating is how to use information from the fossil record to calibrate genetic distances from DNA sequences. Here we apply three Bayesian dating methods that differ in how calibration is achieved-"node dating" (ND) in BEAST, "total evidence" (TE) dating in MrBayes, and the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) in FDPPDiv-to infer divergence times in the royal ferns. Osmundaceae have 16-17 species in four genera, two mainly in the Northern Hemisphere and two in South Africa and Australasia; they are the sister clade to the remaining leptosporangiate ferns. Their fossil record consists of at least 150 species in ∼17 genera. For ND, we used the five oldest fossils, whereas for TE and FBD dating, which do not require forcing fossils to nodes and thus can use more fossils, we included up to 36 rhizomes and frond compression/impression fossils, which for TE dating were scored for 33 morphological characters. We also subsampled 10%, 25%, and 50% of the 36 fossils to assess model sensitivity. FBD-derived divergence ages were generally greater than those inferred from ND; two of seven TE-derived ages agreed with FBD-obtained ages, the others were much younger or much older than ND or FBD ages. We prefer the FBD-derived ages because they best fit the Osmundales fossil record (including Triassic fossils not used in our study). Under the preferred model, the clade encompassing extant Osmundaceae (and many fossils) dates to the latest Paleozoic to Early Triassic; divergences of the extant species occurred during the Neogene. Under the assumption of constant speciation and extinction rates, the FBD approach yielded speciation and extinction rates that overlapped those obtained from just neontological data. However, FBD estimates of speciation and extinction are sensitive to violations in the assumption of continuous fossil sampling; therefore, these estimates should be treated with caution.

Multiple morphological clocks and total-evidence tip-dating in mammals.

Morphological integration predicts that correlated characters will coevolve; thus, each distinct suite of correlated characters might be expected to evolve according to a separate clock or 'pacemaker'. Characters in a large morphological dataset for mammals were found to be evolving according to seven separate clocks, each distinct from the molecular clock. Total-evidence tip-dating using these multiple clocks inflated divergence time estimates, but potentially improved topological inference. In particular, single-clock analyses placed several meridiungulates and condylarths in a heterodox position as stem placentals, but multi-clock analyses retrieved a more plausible and orthodox position within crown placentals. Several shortcomings (including uneven character sampling) currently impact upon the accuracy of total-evidence dating, but this study suggests that when sufficiently large and appropriately constructed phenotypic datasets become more commonplace, multi-clock approaches are feasible and can affect both divergence dates and phylogenetic relationships.

Inferring node dates from tip dates in fossil Canidae: the importance of tree priors.

Tip-dating methods are becoming popular alternatives to traditional node calibration approaches for building time-scaled phylogenetic trees, but questions remain about their application to empirical datasets. We compared the performance of the most popular methods against a dated tree of fossil Canidae derived from previously published monographs. Using a canid morphology dataset, we performed tip-dating using BEAST v. 2.1.3 and MrBayes v. 3.2.5. We find that for key nodes (Canis, approx. 3.2 Ma, Caninae approx. 11.7 Ma) a non-mechanistic model using a uniform tree prior produces estimates that are unrealistically old (27.5, 38.9 Ma). Mechanistic models (incorporating lineage birth, death and sampling rates) estimate ages that are closely in line with prior research. We provide a discussion of these two families of models (mechanistic versus non-mechanistic) and their applicability to fossil datasets.

Including autapomorphies is important for paleontological tip-dating with clocklike data, but not with non-clock data.

Tip-dating, where fossils are included as dated terminal taxa in Bayesian dating inference, is an increasingly popular method. Data for these studies often come from morphological character matrices originally developed for non-dated, and usually parsimony, analyses. In parsimony, only shared derived characters (synapomorphies) provide grouping information, so many character matrices have an ascertainment bias: they omit autapomorphies (unique derived character states), which are considered uninformative. There has been no study of the effect of this ascertainment bias in tip-dating, but autapomorphies can be informative in model-based inference. We expected that excluding autapomorphies would shorten the morphological branchlengths of terminal branches, and thus bias downwards the time branchlengths inferred in tip-dating. We tested for this effect using a matrix for Carboniferous-Permian eureptiles where all autapomorphies had been deliberately coded. Surprisingly, date estimates are virtually unchanged when autapomorphies are excluded, although we find large changes in morphological rate estimates and small effects on topological and dating confidence. We hypothesized that the puzzling lack of effect on dating was caused by the non-clock nature of the eureptile data. We confirm this explanation by simulating strict clock and non-clock datasets, showing that autapomorphy exclusion biases dating only for the clocklike case. A theoretical solution to ascertainment bias is computing the ascertainment bias correction (Mkparsinf), but we explore this correction in detail, and show that it is computationally impractical for typical datasets with many character states and taxa. Therefore we recommend that palaeontologists collect autapomorphies whenever possible when assembling character matrices.

Closing the gap between rocks and clocks using total-evidence dating.

Total-evidence dating (TED) allows evolutionary biologists to incorporate a wide range of dating information into a unified statistical analysis. One might expect this to improve the agreement between rocks and clocks but this is not necessarily the case. We explore the reasons for such discordance using a mammalian dataset with rich molecular, morphological and fossil information. There is strong conflict in this dataset between morphology and molecules under standard stochastic models. This causes TED to push divergence events back in time when using inadequate models or vague priors, a phenomenon we term 'deep root attraction' (DRA). We identify several causes of DRA. Failure to account for diversified sampling results in dramatic DRA, but this can be addressed using existing techniques. Inadequate morphological models also appear to be a major contributor to DRA. The major reason seems to be that current models do not account for dependencies among morphological characters, causing distorted topology and branch length estimates. This is particularly problematic for huge morphological datasets, which may contain large numbers of correlated characters. Finally, diversification and fossil sampling priors that do not incorporate all the available background information can contribute to DRA, but these priors can also be used to compensate for DRA. Specifically, we show that DRA in the mammalian dataset can be addressed by introducing a modest extra penalty for ghost lineages that are unobserved in the fossil record, for instance by assuming rapid diversification, rare extinction or high fossil sampling rate; any of these assumptions produces highly congruent divergence time estimates with a minimal gap between rocks and clocks. Under these conditions, fossils have a stabilizing influence on divergence time estimates and significantly increase the precision of those estimates, which are generally close to the dates suggested by palaeontologists.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'.

A revised dated phylogeny of the arachnid order Opiliones.

Dating the Opiliones tree of life has become an important enterprise for this group of arthropods, due to their ancient origins and important biogeographic implications. To incorporate both methodological innovations in molecular dating as well as new systematic discoveries of harvestman diversity, we conducted total evidence dating on a data set uniting morphological and/or molecular sequence data for 47 Opiliones species, including all four well-known Palaeozoic fossils, to test the placement of both fossils and newly discovered lineages in a single analysis. Furthermore, we investigated node dating with a phylogenomic data set of 24,202 amino acid sites for 14 species of Opiliones, sampling all extant suborders. In this way, we approached molecular dating of basal harvestman phylogeny using different data sets and approaches to assess congruence of divergence time estimates. In spite of the markedly different composition of data sets, our results show congruence across all analyses for age estimates of basal nodes that are well constrained with respect to fossil calibrations (e.g., Opiliones, Palpatores). By contrast, derived nodes that lack fossil calibrations (e.g., the suborders Cyphophthalmi, and Laniatores) have large uncertainty intervals in diversification times, particularly in the total evidence dating analysis, reflecting the dearth of calibration points and undersampling of derived lineages. Total evidence dating consistently produced older median ages than node dating for ingroup nodes, due to the nested placement of multiple Palaeozoic fossils. Our analyses support basal diversification of Opiliones in the Ordovician-Devonian period, corroborating the inferred ancient origins of this arthropod order, and underscore the importance of diversity discovery-both paleontological and neontological-in evolutionary inference.