The voices of Ukrainian and Russian scientists.

The brutal attack on Ukraine by the Russian Federation has shocked the world. While the world works to end the violence and help refugees, as a scientific journal, our thoughts are also with those in the scientific community who are directly or indirectly impacted by the war. We have been inspired by and applaud the labs around the world that have opened their doors to displaced scientists and remain committed to supporting scientists, whoever and wherever they are. Because science requires collaboration and trust, we urge the scientific community to continue efforts like this and to remain united, especially in times as difficult as these. In this Voices piece, we feature short comments from scientists from Ukraine and scientists from Russia. This small sampling is far from exhaustive, but our sincere thanks go to those scientists who were willing to share their thoughts on this volatile and emotionally charged situation; the views expressed are those of the contributors alone. We join the world in hoping for a swift resolution to the conflict, for the good of humanity.

Transcultural pathways to the will to fight.

In 2022, the "Will to Fight Act" was referred to the US Congress urging attention to measuring and assessing will to fight. That Bill was not enacted, and evaluation efforts within the political and military establishment remain contentious, fragmented, and meager. This likely will persist, along with attendant policy failures and grievous costs, without awareness of research that the social and psychological sciences reveal on the will to fight [S. Atran, Science 373, 1063 (2021)]. We illustrate such research using converging data from a multimethod and multicultural approach, including field and online studies from the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe. These studies reveal specific psychosocial pathways, within a general causal framework, that predict willingness to make costly sacrifices, including to cooperate, fight, and die in war and sustained conflict. From the continuing strife in Iraq to embattled Ukraine, 31 studies were conducted in 9 countries with nearly 12,000 participants. These include people in longstanding conflicts, refugees, imprisoned jihadists and gangs, US military, studies in Ukraine before and during the current war, and rolling studies with a European ally of Ukraine. Results provide evidence for a mediation model of transcultural pathways to the will to fight. Building on our previous behavioral and brain research, on the battlefield in Iraq, with violent extremists, and with US military, the linear mediation yielding the will to fight involves identity fusion, perceived spiritual formidability, and trust. The model, a variation on "The Devoted Actor Framework," applies to primary reference groups, core cultural values, and leaders.

Mortality among populations affected by armed conflict in northeast Nigeria, 2016 to 2019.

Armed conflict, displacement and food insecurity have affected Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states of northeast Nigeria (population ≈ 12 million) since 2009. Insecurity escalated in 2013 to 2015, but the humanitarian response was delayed and the crisis' health impact was unquantified due to incomplete death registration and limited ground access. We estimated mortality attributable to this crisis using a small-area estimation approach that circumvented these challenges. We fitted a mixed effects model to household mortality data collected as part of 70 ground surveys implemented by humanitarian actors. Model predictors, drawn from existing data, included livelihood typology, staple cereal price, vaccination geocoverage, and humanitarian actor presence. To project accurate death tolls, we reconstructed population denominators based on forced displacement. We used the model and population estimates to project mortality under observed conditions and varying assumed counterfactual conditions, had there been no crisis, with the difference providing excess mortality. Death rates were highly elevated across most ground surveys, with net negative household migration. Between April 2016 and December 2019, we projected 490,000 excess deaths (230,000 children under 5 y) in the most likely counterfactual scenario, with a range from 90,000 (best-case) to 550,000 (worst-case). Death rates were two to three times higher than counterfactual levels, double the projected national rate, and highest in 2016 to 2017. Despite limited scope (we could not study the situation before 2016 or in neighboring affected countries), our findings suggest a staggering health impact of this crisis. Further studies to document mortality in this and other crises are needed to guide decision-making and memorialize their human toll.

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

Challenges for chemistry in Ukraine after the war: Ukrainian science requires rebuilding and support.

The unprovoked Russian invasion has created considerable challenges for Ukrainian science. In this article, we discuss actions needed to support and rebuild Ukrainian science and educational systems. The proposed actions take into account past Ukrainian scientific achievements including developments in organic chemistry.

The burden of infectious diseases throughout and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023) and Russo-Ukrainian war migration.

Understanding how the infectious disease burden was affected throughout the COVID-19 pandemic is pivotal to identifying potential hot spots and guiding future mitigation measures. Therefore, our study aimed to analyze the changes in the rate of new cases of Poland's most frequent infectious diseases during the entire COVID-19 pandemic and after the influx of war refugees from Ukraine. We performed a registry-based population-wide study in Poland to analyze the changes in the rate of 24 infectious disease cases from 2020 to 2023 and compared them to the prepandemic period (2016-2019). Data were collected from publicly archived datasets of the Epimeld database published by national epidemiological authority institutions. The rate of most of the studied diseases (66.6%) revealed significantly negative correlations with the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the majority of infectious diseases, it substantially decreased in 2020 (in case of 83%) and 2021 (63%), following which it mostly rebounded to the prepandemic levels and, in some cases, exceeded them in 2023 when the exceptionally high annual rates of new cases of scarlet fever, Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, HIV infections, syphilis, gonococcal infections, and tick-borne encephalitis were noted. The rate of Clostridioides difficile enterocolitis was two-fold higher than before the pandemic from 2021 onward. The rate of Legionnaires' disease in 2023 also exceeded the prepandemic threshold, although this was due to a local outbreak unrelated to lifted COVID-19 pandemic restrictions or migration of war refugees. The influx of war migrants from Ukraine could impact the epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases. The present analysis indicates that continued efforts are needed to prevent COVID-19 from overwhelming healthcare systems again and decreasing the control over the burden of other infectious diseases. It also identifies the potential tipping points that require additional mitigation measures, which are also discussed in the paper, to avoid escalation in the future.

Rubble to Rouble: how can science respond to war?

The unprovoked war on Ukraine has left many in the global scientific community, including Russia, shellshocked. We need to persuade the Kremlin to return to a rules-based international order, while supporting Ukrainians, but also Russian scientists facing both internal and external sanctions.

Neurological Practice in the Time of War: Perspectives and Experiences from Ukraine.

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted the country's healthcare system. Insufficient infrastructure, destruction of medical facilities, and barriers to prevention and treatment efforts hinder the provision of timely, high-quality care to our patients. We aim to describe the impact of the war on neurological care across Ukraine. In this article, leading national experts in stroke, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, and movement disorders describe their personal experience and efforts in organizing and providing care since the war started in February 2022. A neurologist who cared for patients in Mariupol recounts the first weeks of the war when the city was under constant attacks. An international stroke expert describes the role of Task Force for Ukraine, a European Stroke Organization initiative to support the Ukrainian stroke community. We discuss a series of critical challenges facing Ukraine's neurologists, patients, and healthcare delivery system, including shortages of personnel and medical supplies, disrupted logistics, and lack of funding. In addition, we highlight various interventions and strategies aimed at counteracting these challenges, including international support, collaborations within Ukraine, and initiatives enhancing the resilience of the Ukrainian neurology community. As the war is ongoing, this article emphasizes the pressing need for continuous support and investment in the Ukrainian healthcare system to preserve guaranteed access to high-quality healthcare for the Ukrainian people during the war and in its aftermath. Insights from the essays can inform the development and implementation of effective strategies and interventions tailored to such extraordinary circumstances.