Temporal decline in diarrhea episodes and mortality in Kiribati children two years following rotavirus vaccine introduction, despite high malnutrition rates: a retrospective review.

BACKGROUND: Kiribati introduced rotavirus vaccine in 2015. To estimate the impact of rotavirus vaccine on acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) among children under 5 in Kiribati, a retrospective review of inpatient and outpatient AGE and hospitalized SAM was undertaken. METHODS: Inpatient data for admissions and hospital deaths due to AGE, SAM and all-causes were collected for children under 5 from all hospitals on the main island, Tarawa, from January 2010-December 2013 (pre-rotavirus vaccine) and January 2016-September 2017 (post-rotavirus vaccine). National outpatient diarrhea data were collected from January 2010 to August 2017 for under 5. An interrupted time-series analysis was undertaken to estimate the effect of rotavirus vaccine on the rates of inpatient and outpatient AGE, inpatient SAM; and inpatient case fatality rates for AGE and SAM, were calculated pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction. RESULTS: The incidence rate of AGE admissions from Tarawa and national AGE outpatient presentations significantly declined by 37 and 44%, respectively, 2 years following rotavirus vaccine introduction. There was a significant decline in the percentage of AGE contributing to all-cause under 5 admissions (12·8% vs. 7·2%, p < 0·001) and all-cause under-five mortality (15·9% vs. 5·7%, p = 0·006) pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction. The estimated incidence rate of inpatient SAM decreased by 24% in under 5 s, 2 years following rotavirus vaccine introduction. CONCLUSIONS: AGE morbidity and mortality and hospitalized SAM rates have declined following rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kiribati children.

[Population impact of rotavirus vaccination in Mexico after 10 years]. / Impacto poblacional a 10 años de la vacunación contra rotavirus en México.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of rotavirus (RV) vaccination after 10 years of it´s universalization on morbidity and mortality from Acute Diarrheal Disease (ADD) in mexican children under five years of age. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Annual median numbers for ADD new cases, hospitalizations and deaths were compared between pre and post universalization periods; absolute and relative reductions were calculated, considering p<0.05 values as significant. RESULTS: Mortality, hospitalizations and new cases from ADD in children under five decreased 52.6, 46, and 15.5% respectively, in the posuniversalization period. During rotavirus seasons, reduction in mortality, hospitalizations and new cases was 66.9, 64.7, and 28.7% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: As of the universal introduction of RV vaccination in Mexico, significant and sustained reductions are appreciated for mortality and hospitalizations from ADD, less so for incidence. A most prominent effect is observed during the winter season.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar el impacto de la vacunación contra rotavirus (RV) a 10 años de su universalización sobre la morbimortalidad por enfermedad diarreica aguda (EDA) en niños mexicanos menores de cinco años. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se compararon las medianas anuales de casos nuevos, defunciones y hospitalizaciones por EDA del periodo pre y posuniversalización; se calcularon reducciones absolutas y relativas, considerando significativos valores de p<0.05. RESULTADOS: La mortalidad, hospitalizaciones y casos nuevos por EDA en menores de cinco años disminuyeron 52.6, 46 y 15.5% respectivamente, en el periodo posuniversalización. Durante la temporada de RV las reducciones en la mortalidad, hospitalizaciones y casos nuevos fueron de 66.9, 64.7 y 28.7%, respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: A partir de la universaliza- ción de la vacuna de RV en México, se aprecian reducciones importantes y sostenidas en la mortalidad, hospitalizaciones e incidencia por EDA, con menor impacto en esta última. El mayor impacto se observa durante la temporada de RV.

Rates of hospitalization and death for all-cause and rotavirus acute gastroenteritis before rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kenya, 2010-2013.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine was introduced in Kenya immunization program in July 2014. Pre-vaccine disease burden estimates are important for assessing vaccine impact. METHODS: Children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) (≥3 loose stools and/or ≥ 1 episode of unexplained vomiting followed by loose stool within a 24-h period), hospitalized in Siaya County Referral Hospital (SCRH) from January 2010 through December 2013 were enrolled. Stool specimens were tested for rotavirus (RV) using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Hospitalization rates were calculated using person-years of observation (PYO) from the Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) as a denominator, while adjusting for healthcare utilization at household level and proportion of stool specimen collected from patients who met the case definition at the surveillance hospital. Mortality rates were calculated using PYO as the denominator and number of deaths estimated using total deaths in the HDSS, proportion of deaths attributed to diarrhoea by verbal autopsy (VA) and percent positive for rotavirus AGE (RVAGE) hospitalizations. RESULTS: Of 7760 all-cause hospitalizations among children < 5 years of age, 3793 (49%) were included in the analysis. Of these, 21% (805) had AGE; RV was detected in 143 (26%) of 541 stools tested. Among children < 5 years, the estimated hospitalization rates per 100,000 PYO for AGE and RVAGE were 2413 and 429, respectively. Mortality rate associated with AGE and RVAGE were 176 and 45 per 100,000 PYO, respectively. CONCLUSION: AGE and RVAGE caused substantial health care burden (hospitalizations and deaths) before rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kenya.

Risk factors for death among children 0-59 months of age with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in Manhiça district, southern Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Despite major improvements in child survival rates, the number of deaths due to diarrhea remains unacceptably high. We aimed to describe diarrhea-associated mortality and evaluate risk factors for death among Mozambican children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD). METHODS: Between December 2007 and November 2012, children under-five with MSD were enrolled in Manhiça district, as part of the Global Enteric Multicenter study (GEMS). Clinical, epidemiological, and socio-demographic characteristics were collected. Anthropometric measurements were performed and stool samples collected upon recruitment. A follow-up visit ~ 60 days post-enrolment was conducted and verbal autopsies performed in all death cases. RESULTS: Of the 916 MSD-cases analyzed; 90% (821/916) completed 60 days follow-up and 69 patients died. The case fatality rate at follow-up was 8% (69/821), and the mortality rate 10.2 (95%CI: 7.75-13.59) deaths per 1000 persons-week at risk. Nearly half of the deaths 48% (33/69) among study participants clustered within 2 weeks of the onset of diarrhea. Typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (typical EPEC) and Cryptosporidium were the two pathogens associated to an increased risk of death in the univariate analysis with (HR = 4.16, p = 0.0461) and (H = 2.84, p = 0.0001) respectively. Conversely, Rotavirus infection was associated to a decreased risk of death (HR = 0.52, p = 0.0198). According to the multivariate analysis, risk factors for death included co-morbidities such as malnutrition (HR = 4.13, p <  0.0001), pneumonia/lower respiratory infection (HR = 3.51, p <  0.0001) or invasive bacterial disease (IBD) (HR = 6.80, p = 0.0009), presenting on arrival with lethargy or overt unconsciousness (HR = 1.73, p = 0.0302) or wrinkled skin (HR = 1.71, p = 0.0393), and cryptosporidium infection (HR = 2.14, p = 0.0038). When restricting the analysis to those with available HIV results (n = 191, 22% of the total study sample), HIV was shown to be a significant risk factor for death (HR = 5.05, p = 0.0009). Verbal autopsies were conducted in 100% of study deaths, and highlighted diarrhea as the main underlying cause of death 39%, (27/69); followed by HIV/AIDS related deaths 29.0% (20/69) and sepsis 11.6% (8/69). CONCLUSION: Preventive strategies targeting Cryptosporidium, malnutrition and early identification and treatment of associated co-morbidities could contribute to the prevention of the majority of diarrhea associated deaths in Mozambican children.

Survey of rotavirus-associated severe complications in Aichi Prefecture.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus can, rarely, cause severe complications such as encephalopathy/encephalitis, myocarditis, sudden death, urinary stone, and gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding; and the incidence of these severe complications remains unclear. Additionally, it has not been determined whether rotavirus (RV) vaccine could reduce cases of severe complications or not. METHODS: A two-part questionnaire was designed to determine the number and clinical features of severe complications between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2015, including the observation periods before and after RV vaccine introduction in Aichi Prefecture. RESULTS: Twenty-four cases of encephalitis/encephalopathy, eight cases of sudden death, three cases of urinary tract stone, and three cases of GI bleeding were reported during the 2008/2009 season and the 2012/2013 seasons. Although five cases of encephalitis/encephalopathy were reported, no other cases of severe complications were reported during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 seasons. No age difference was noted according to type of complication. Although onset of encephalitis/encephalopathy and of sudden death was around day 2 of illness, that of urinary tract stone and GI bleeding was slightly later (day 6 and day 4). In addition to the eight sudden deaths, fatal outcome was also noted in four cases (13.8%) of encephalitis/encephalopathy, and in one case of GI bleeding. CONCLUSION: According to the questionnaire survey in Aichi Prefecture, the incidence of the four severe RV-associated complications appears to have declined as the vaccination rate has increased.

Global Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination on Childhood Hospitalizations and Mortality From Diarrhea.

In 2006, 2 rotavirus vaccines were licensed. We summarize the impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalizations and deaths from rotavirus and all-cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE) during the first 10 years since vaccine licensure, including recent evidence from countries with high child mortality. We used standardized guidelines (PRISMA) to identify observational evaluations of rotavirus vaccine impact among children <5 years of age that presented at least 12 months of pre- and post-vaccine introduction surveillance data. We identified 57 articles from 27 countries. Among children <5 years of age, the median percentage reduction in AGE hospitalizations was 38% overall and 41%, 30%, and 46% in countries with low, medium, and high child mortality, respectively. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to rotavirus AGE were reduced by a median of 67% overall and 71%, 59%, and 60% in countries with low, medium, and high child mortality, respectively. Implementation of rotavirus vaccines has substantially decreased hospitalizations from rotavirus and all-cause AGE.

Impact of rotavirus vaccines in low and middle-income countries.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Rotavirus vaccines are playing a pivotal role in improving lives of infants and young children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Many of these countries have adopted the vaccine into their routine immunization, whereas others are considering introduction. This article provides an update on the impact of rotavirus vaccines in LMICs on morbidity and mortality in children aged less than 5 years, and their cost-effectiveness. RECENT FINDINGS: The WHO, in 2013, updated its recommendation to prioritize introduction of rotavirus vaccines in the routine immunization schedule, without age restrictions. Despite the decreased efficacy of the vaccines in LMICs, data from Sub-Saharan Africa have demonstrated a decrease in rotavirus-related morbidity, with some sites reporting an indirect protective effect on children age ineligible to receive the vaccine. Even with improvements in sanitation, nutritional status in children, and other health-related indices in LMICs, the use of rotavirus vaccines will play an important role in preventing rotavirus-related gastroenteritis. Economic models predict a reduction in economic burden because of rotavirus-related health costs, making vaccine introduction cost-effective in resource-constrained settings. SUMMARY: Increasing evidence from impact studies shows the significant impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalizations and economic burden because of rotavirus gastroenteritis in LMICs. Universal rotavirus vaccination is recommended, and introductions should be monitored by robust surveillance systems to measure effectiveness and impact.

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013. METHODS: We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country. RESULTS: Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013. DISCUSSION: While rotavirus vaccine had been introduced in >60 countries worldwide by the end of 2013, the majority of countries using rotavirus vaccine during the review period were low-mortality countries and the impact of rotavirus vaccine on global estimates of rotavirus mortality has been limited. Continued monitoring of rotavirus mortality rates and deaths through rotavirus surveillance will aid in monitoring the impact of vaccination.

Findings from a comprehensive diarrhoea prevention and treatment programme in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The Programme for the Awareness and Elimination of Diarrhoea (PAED) was a pilot comprehensive diarrhoea prevention and control programme aimed to reduce post-neonatal, all-cause under-five mortality by 15 % in Lusaka Province. Interventions included introduction of the rotavirus vaccine, improved clinical case management of diarrhoea, and a comprehensive community prevention and advocacy campaign on hand washing with soap, exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months of age, and the use of ORS and Zinc. This study aimed to assess the impact of PAED on under-5 mortality. METHODS: The study was a pre-post evaluation design. The Demographic and Health Survey style population-based two-stage approach was used to collect data at the beginning of the intervention and 3 years following the start of intervention implementation in Lusaka province. The primary outcome of interest was an all-cause, post-neonatal under-five mortality rate defined as the probability of dying after the 28th day and before the fifth birthday among children aged 1-59 months. The Kaplan-Meier time to event analysis was used to estimate the probability of death; multiplying this probability by 1000 to yield the post-neonatal mortality rate. Survival-time inverse probability weighting model was used to estimate Average Treatment Effect (ATE). RESULTS: The percentage of children under age 5 who had diarrhoea in the last 2 weeks preceding the survey declined from 15.8 % (95 % CI: 15.2 %, 16.4 %) in 2012 to 12.7 % (95 % CI: 12.3 %, 13.2 %) in 2015. Over the same period, mortality in post-neonatal children under 5 years of age declined by 34 %, from an estimated rate of 29 deaths per 1000 live births (95 % CI: (26, 32) death per 1000 live births) to 19 deaths per 1000 live births (95 % CI: (16, 21) death per 1000 live births). When every child in the population of children aged 1-59 months is exposed to the intervention, the average time-to-death was estimated to be about 8 months more than when no child is exposed (ATE = 7.9; 95 % CI: 4.4,11.5; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Well-packaged diarrhoea preventive and treatment interventions delivered at the clinic and community-level could potentially reduce probability of death among children aged 1-59 months.

Sustained low rotavirus activity and hospitalisation rates in the post-vaccination era in Belgium, 2007 to 2014.

In 2006, Belgium was the first country in the European Union to recommend rotavirus vaccination in the routine infant vaccination schedule and rapidly achieved high vaccine uptake (86-89% in 2007). We used regional and national data sources up to 7 years post-vaccination to study the impact of vaccination on laboratory-confirmed rotavirus cases and rotavirus-related hospitalisations and deaths. We showed that (i) from 2007 until 2013, vaccination coverage remained at 79-88% for a complete course, (ii) in children 0-2 years, rotavirus cases decreased by 79% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 68--89%) in 2008-2014 compared to the pre-vaccination period (1999--2006) and by 50% (95% CI: 14-82%) in the age group ≥ 10 years, (iii) hospitalisations for rotavirus gastroenteritis decreased by 87% (95% CI: 84-90%) in 2008--2012 compared to the pre-vaccination period (2002--2006), (iv) median age of rotavirus cases increased from 12 months to 17 months and (v) the rotavirus seasonal peak was reduced and delayed in all post-vaccination years. The substantial decline in rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalisations and in rotavirus activity following introduction of rotavirus vaccination is sustained over time and more pronounced in the target age group, but with evidence of herd immunity.

Rhesus rotavirus VP4 sequence-specific activation of mononuclear cells is associated with cholangiopathy in murine biliary atresia.

Biliary atresia (BA), a neonatal obstructive cholangiopathy, remains the most common indication for pediatric liver transplantation in the United States. In the murine model of BA, Rhesus rotavirus (RRV) VP4 surface protein determines biliary duct tropism. In this study, we investigated how VP4 governs induction of murine BA. Newborn mice were injected with 16 strains of rotavirus and observed for clinical symptoms of BA and mortality. Cholangiograms were performed to confirm bile duct obstruction. Livers and bile ducts were harvested 7 days postinfection for virus titers and histology. Flow cytometry assessed mononuclear cell activation in harvested cell populations from the liver. Cytotoxic NK cell activity was determined by the ability of NK cells to kill noninfected cholangiocytes. Of the 16 strains investigated, the 6 with the highest homology to the RRV VP4 (>87%) were capable of infecting bile ducts in vivo. Although the strain Ro1845 replicated to a titer similar to RRV in vivo, it caused no symptoms or mortality. A Ro1845 reassortant containing the RRV VP4 induced all BA symptoms, with a mortality rate of 89%. Flow cytometry revealed that NK cell activation was significantly increased in the disease-inducing strains and these NK cells demonstrated a significantly higher percentage of cytotoxicity against noninfected cholangiocytes. Rotavirus strains with >87% homology to RRV's VP4 were capable of infecting murine bile ducts in vivo. Development of murine BA was mediated by RRV VP4-specific activation of mononuclear cells, independent of viral titers.

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS: The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS: We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION: Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of rotavirus vaccination on death from childhood diarrhea in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: A phased introduction of a monovalent rotavirus vaccine occurred in Mexico from February 2006 through May 2007. We assessed the effect of vaccination on deaths from diarrhea in Mexican children in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We obtained data on deaths from diarrhea, regardless of cause, from January 2003 through May 2009 in Mexican children under 5 years of age. We compared diarrhea-related mortality in 2008 and during the 2008 and 2009 rotavirus seasons with the mortality at baseline (2003-2006), before the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. Vaccine coverage was estimated from administrative data. RESULTS: By December 2007, an estimated 74% of children who were 11 months of age or younger had received one dose of rotavirus vaccine. In 2008, there were 1118 diarrhea-related deaths among children younger than 5 years of age, a reduction of 675 from the annual median of 1793 deaths during the 2003-2006 period. Diarrhea-related mortality fell from an annual median of 18.1 deaths per 100,000 children at baseline to 11.8 per 100,000 children in 2008 (rate reduction, 35%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 29 to 39; P<0.001). Among infants who were 11 months of age or younger, diarrhea-related mortality fell from 61.5 deaths per 100,000 children at baseline to 36.0 per 100,000 children in 2008 (rate reduction, 41%; 95% CI, 36 to 47; P<0.001). As compared with baseline, diarrhea-related mortality was 29% lower for children between the ages of 12 and 23 months, few of whom were age-eligible for vaccination. Mortality among unvaccinated children between the ages of 24 and 59 months was not significantly reduced. The reduction in the number of diarrhea-related deaths persisted through two full rotavirus seasons (2008 and 2009). CONCLUSIONS: After the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine, a significant decline in diarrhea-related deaths among Mexican children was observed, suggesting a potential benefit from rotavirus vaccination.

Targeted rotavirus vaccination of high-risk infants; a low cost and highly cost-effective alternative to universal vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of universal rotavirus (RV) vaccination is controversial in developed countries. As a result, RV vaccination programs do not currently exist in most European countries. Hospitalization is the main driver of RV disease costs, and prematurity, low birth weight (LBW) and underlying medical conditions have been associated with RV hospitalization and complications. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of targeted RV vaccination of high-risk infants and universal RV vaccination versus no vaccination. METHODS: Disease burden, mortality and healthcare costs of RV hospitalization for children with and without prematurity, LBW and congenital pathology were quantified in two hospital-based observational studies in the Netherlands. Cost-effectiveness analysis was based on an age-structured stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch population comparing universal RV vaccination and targeted vaccination of high-risk infants to no vaccination. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a threshold of €35,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from the healthcare provider perspective. Sensitivity analyses included vaccine price and coverage, herd-immunity and QALY losses. RESULTS: A total of 936 children with RV infection were included. Prematurity, LBW and congenital pathology were associated with increased risks of RV hospitalization (relative risks (RR) ranging from 1.6 to 4.4), ICU admission (RR ranging from 4.2 to 7.9), prolonged hospital stay (1.5 to 3.0 excess days) and higher healthcare costs (€648 to €1,533 excess costs). Seven children succumbed due to RV complications, all belonging to the high-risk population. Targeted RV vaccination was highly cost-effective and potentially cost-saving from the healthcare provider perspective with ICERs below €20,000/QALY in all scenarios with total (undiscounted) annual healthcare costs between -€0.1 and €0.5 million/year. Results were most sensitive to mortality rates, but targeted vaccination remained highly cost-effective up to reductions of 90% compared to observed mortality. Universal RV vaccination was not considered cost-effective (mean ICER: €60,200/QALY) unless herd-immunity and caretaker QALY losses were included and vaccine prices were €60 at most (mean ICER: €21,309/QALY). CONCLUSION: We recommend targeted RV vaccination for high-risk infants in developed countries.

Potential intussusception risk versus health benefits from rotavirus vaccination in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: With the recent postlicensure identification of an increased risk of intussusception with rotavirus vaccine, the 14 Latin American countries currently using rotavirus vaccine must now weigh the health benefits versus risks to assess whether to continue vaccination. To inform policy considerations, we estimated excess intussusception cases and mortality potentially caused by rotavirus vaccine for each of the 14 countries and compared these estimates to hospitalizations and deaths expected to be averted through vaccination. METHODS: We used regional rotavirus disease burden and rotavirus vaccine efficacy data, global natural intussusception and regional rotavirus vaccine-related risk estimates, and country-specific diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussus vaccination coverage rates to estimate rotavirus vaccine coverage rates. We performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainty in these parameters. RESULTS: For an aggregate hypothetical birth cohort of 9.5 million infants in these 14 countries, rotavirus vaccine would annually prevent 144 746 (90% confidence interval [CI], 128 821-156 707) hospitalizations and 4124 deaths (90% CI, 3740-4239) due to rotavirus in their first 5 years of life but could cause an additional 172 hospitalizations (90% CI, 126-293) and 10 deaths (90% CI, 6-17) due to intussusception, yielding benefit-risk ratios for hospitalization and death of 841:1 (90% CI, 479:1 to 1142:1) and 395:1 (90% CI, 207:1 to 526:1), respectively. In an uncertainty analysis using 10 000 simulations of our probabilistic parameters, in comparing rotavirus disease averted to intussusception events caused, the hospitalization ratio was never below 100:1, and our death ratio fell below 100:1 only once. CONCLUSIONS: The health benefits of vaccination far outweigh the short-term risks and support continued rotavirus vaccination in Latin America.

Removing the age restrictions for rotavirus vaccination: a benefit-risk modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: To minimize potential risk of intussusception, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended in 2009 that rotavirus immunization should be initiated by age 15 weeks and completed before 32 weeks. These restrictions could adversely impact vaccination coverage and thereby its health impact, particularly in developing countries where delays in vaccination often occur. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a modeling study to estimate the number of rotavirus deaths prevented and the number of intussusception deaths caused by vaccination when administered on the restricted schedule versus an unrestricted schedule whereby rotavirus vaccine would be administered with DTP vaccine up to age 3 years. Countries were grouped on the basis of child mortality rates, using WHO data. Inputs were estimates of WHO rotavirus mortality by week of age from a recent study, intussusception mortality based on a literature review, predicted vaccination rates by week of age from USAID Demographic and Health Surveys, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), and WHO-UNICEF 2010 country-specific coverage estimates, and published estimates of vaccine efficacy and vaccine-associated intussusception risk. On the basis of the error estimates and distributions for model inputs, we conducted 2,000 simulations to obtain median estimates of deaths averted and caused as well as the uncertainty ranges, defined as the 5th-95th percentile, to provide an indication of the uncertainty in the estimates. We estimated that in low and low-middle income countries a restricted schedule would prevent 155,800 rotavirus deaths (5th-95th centiles, 83,300-217,700) while causing potentially 253 intussusception deaths (76-689). In contrast, vaccination without age restrictions would prevent 203,000 rotavirus deaths (102,000-281,500) while potentially causing 547 intussusception deaths (237-1,160). Thus, removing the age restrictions would avert an additional 47,200 rotavirus deaths (18,700-63,700) and cause an additional 294 (161-471) intussusception deaths, for an incremental benefit-risk ratio of 154 deaths averted for every death caused by vaccine. These extra deaths prevented under an unrestricted schedule reflect vaccination of an additional 21%-25% children, beyond the 63%-73% of the children who would be vaccinated under the restricted schedule. Importantly, these estimates err on the side of safety in that they assume high vaccine-associated risk of intussusception and do not account for potential herd immunity or non-fatal outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that in low- and middle-income countries the additional lives saved by removing age restrictions for rotavirus vaccination would far outnumber the potential excess vaccine-associated intussusception deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The rhesus rotavirus gene encoding VP4 is a major determinant in the pathogenesis of biliary atresia in newborn mice.

Biliary atresia (BA) is a devastating disease of childhood for which increasing evidence supports a viral component in pathogenesis. The murine model of BA is induced by perinatal infection with rhesus rotavirus (RRV) but not with other strains of rotavirus, such as TUCH. To determine which RRV gene segment(s) is responsible for pathogenesis, we used the RRV and TUCH strains to generate a complete set of single-gene reassortants. Eleven single-gene "loss-of-function" reassortants in which a TUCH gene replaced its RRV equivalent and 11 single-gene "gain-of-function" reassortants in which an RRV gene replaced its TUCH equivalent were generated. Newborn BALB/c mice were inoculated with the reassortants and were monitored for biliary obstruction and mortality. In vitro, the ability to bind to and replicate within cholangiocytes was analyzed. Infection of mice with the "loss-of-function" reassortant R(T(VP4)), where gene 4 from TUCH was placed on an RRV background, eliminated the ability of RRV to cause murine BA. In a reciprocal fashion, the "gain-of-function" reassortant T(R(VP4)) resulted in murine BA with 88% mortality. Compared with those for RRV, R(T(VP4)) binding and titers in cholangiocytes were significantly attenuated, while T(R(VP4)) binding and titers were significantly increased over those for TUCH. Reassortants R(T(VP3)) and T(R(VP3)) induced an intermediate phenotype. RRV gene segment 4 plays a significant role in governing tropism for the cholangiocyte and the ability to induce murine BA. Gene segment 3 did not affect RRV infectivity in vitro but altered its in vivo effect.

Rotavirus mortality in India: estimates based on a nationally representative survey of diarrhoeal deaths.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of rotavirus-associated deaths among Indian children younger than five years. METHODS: We surveyed more than 23 000 child deaths from a nationally representative survey of 1.1 million Indian households during 2001-2003. Diarrhoeal deaths were characterized by region, age and sex and were combined with the proportion of deaths attributable to rotavirus, as determined by hospital microbiologic data collected by the Indian Rotavirus Strain Surveillance Network from December 2005 to November 2007. Rotavirus vaccine efficacy data from clinical trials in developing countries were used to estimate the number of deaths preventable by a national vaccination programme. Data were analysed using Stata SE version 10. FINDINGS: Rotavirus caused an estimated 113 000 deaths (99% confidence interval, CI: 86 000-155 000); 50% (54 700) and 75% (85 400) occurred before one and two years of age, respectively. One child in 242 died from rotavirus infection before five years of age. Rotavirus-associated mortality rates overall, among girls and among boys were 4.14 (99% CI: 3.14-5.68), 4.89 (99% CI: 3.75-6.79) and 3.45 (99% CI: 2.58-4.66) deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Rates were highest in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which together accounted for > 50% of deaths (64 400) nationally. Rotavirus vaccine could prevent 41 000-48 000 deaths among children aged 3-59 months. CONCLUSION: The burden of rotavirus-associated mortality is high among Indian children, highlighting the potential benefits of rotavirus vaccination.

Burden and typing of rotavirus group A in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review and meta-analysis.

The efficacy of licensed rotavirus vaccines has only been shown against certain rotavirus group A (RV-A) types. It is critical to understand the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and its prevalent types to assess the potential impact of these vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean (LA&C). We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of all the available evidence reported from 1990 to 2009 on the burden of rotavirus disease and strains circulating in LA&C. Eligible studies--185 country-level reports, 174 951 faecal samples--were selected from MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, LILACS, regional Ministries of Health, PAHO, regional proceedings, doctoral theses, reference lists of included studies and consulting experts. Arc-sine transformations and DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model were used for meta-analyses. The proportion of gastroenteritis cases due to rotavirus was 24.3% (95%CI 22.3-26.4) and the incidence of RVGE was 170 per 1000 children-years (95%CI 130-210). We estimated a global annual mortality for 22 countries of 88.2 (95%CI 79.3-97.1) deaths per 100 000 under 5 years (47 000 deaths).The most common G type detected was G1 (34.2%), followed by G9 (14.6%), and G2 (14.4%). The most common P types detected were P[8] (56.2%), P[4] (22.1%) and P[1] 5.4%, and the most prevalent P-G type associations were P[8]G1 17.9%, P[4]G2 9.1% and P[8]G9 8.8%. In the last 10 years, G9 circulation increased remarkably and G5 almost disappeared. More recently, G12 appeared and P[4]G2 re-emerged. To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis of rotavirus infection and burden of disease in LA&C.

Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection. METHODS: To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability. FINDINGS: In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account. CONCLUSION: Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.