Diagnosis and Management of Acute Pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing in incidence across the world, and in all age groups. Major changes in management have occurred in the last decade. Avoiding total parenteral nutrition and prophylactic antibiotics, avoiding overly aggressive fluid resuscitation, initiating early feeding, avoiding endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the absence of concomitant cholangitis, same-admission cholecystectomy, and minimally invasive approaches to infected necrosis should now be standard of care. Increasing recognition of the risk of recurrence of AP, and progression to chronic pancreatitis, along with the unexpectedly high risk of diabetes and exocrine insufficiency after AP is the subject of large ongoing studies. In this review, we provide an update on important changes in management for this increasingly common disease.

Clinical Significance of Serum CTRP3 Level in the Prediction of Cardiac and Intestinal Mucosal Barrier Dysfunction in Patients with Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

C1q/tumor necrosis factor-related protein 3 (CTRP3) has been demonstrated to play a protective role in mice with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). However, its clinical significance in SAP remains unknown. This study was conducted to explore the clinical values of serum C1q/tumor necrosis factor-related protein 3 (CTRP3) level in the diagnosis of cardiac dysfunction (CD) and intestinal mucosal barrier dysfunction (IMBD) in SAP. Through RT-qPCR, we observed decreased CTRP3 level in the serum of SAP patients. Serum CTRP3 level was correlated with C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, creatine, modified computed tomography severity index score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. The receiver-operating characteristic curve revealed that CTRP3 serum level < 1.005 was conducive to SAP diagnosis with 72.55% sensitivity and 60.00% specificity, CTRP3 < 0.8400 was conducive to CD diagnosis with 80.49% sensitivity and specificity 65.57%, CTRP3 < 0.8900 was conducive to IMBD diagnosis with 94.87% sensitivity and 63.49% specificity, and CTRP3 < 0.6250 was conducive to the diagnosis of CD and IMBD co-existence with 65.22% sensitivity and 89.87% specificity. Generally, CTRP3 was downregulated in the serum of SAP patients and served as a candidate biomarker for the diagnosis of SAP and SAP-induced CD and IMBD.

Ethnic Diversity and Distinctive Features of Familial Versus Multifactorial Chylomicronemia Syndrome: Insights From the UK FCS National Registry.

BACKGROUND: Familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder. This study aimed to study the genotype distribution of FCS-causing genes in the United Kingdom, genotype-phenotype correlation, and clinical differences between FCS and multifactorial chylomicronemia syndrome (MCS). METHODS: The study included 154 patients (FCS, 74; MCS, 80) from the UK FCS national registry and the UK arm of the FCS International Quality Improvement and Service Evaluation Project. RESULTS: FCS was relatively common in non-Europeans and those with parental consanguinity (P<0.001 for both). LPL variants were more common in European patients with FCS (European, 64%; non-European, 46%), while the genotype was more diverse in non-European patients with FCS. Patients with FCS had a higher incidence compared with patients with MCS of acute pancreatitis (84% versus 60%; P=0.001), recurrent pancreatitis (92% versus 63%; P<0.001), unexplained abdominal pain (84% versus 52%; P<0.001), earlier age of onset (median [interquartile range]) of symptoms (15.0 [5.5-26.5] versus 34.0 [25.2-41.7] years; P<0.001), and of acute pancreatitis (24.0 [10.7-31.0] versus 33.5 [26.0-42.5] years; P<0.001). Adverse cardiometabolic features and their co-occurrence was more common in individuals with MCS compared with those with FCS (P<0.001 for each). Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in individuals with MCS than those with FCS (P=0.04). However, this association became nonsignificant after adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index. The prevalence of pancreatic complications and cardiometabolic profile of variant-positive MCS was intermediate between FCS and variant-negative MCS. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of gene variant distribution varies based on the ethnic origin of patients with FCS. Patients with FCS are at a higher risk of pancreatic complications while the prevalence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is lower in FCS compared with MCS. Carriers of heterozygous pathogenic variants have an intermediate phenotype between FCS and variant-negative MCS.

Discrimination of pancreato-biliary cancer and pancreatitis patients by non-invasive liquid biopsy.

BACKGROUND: Current diagnostics for the detection of pancreato-biliary cancers (PBCs) need to be optimized. We therefore propose that methylated cell-free DNA (cfDNA) derived from non-invasive liquid biopsies serves as a novel biomarker with the ability to discriminate pancreato-biliary cancers from non-cancer pancreatitis patients. METHODS: Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) from plasma cfDNA between PBCs, pancreatitis and clinical control samples conditions were identified by next-generation sequencing after enrichment using methyl-binding domains and database searches to generate a discriminatory panel for a hybridization and capture assay with subsequent targeted high throughput sequencing. RESULTS: The hybridization and capture panel, covering around 74 kb in total, was applied to sequence a cohort of 25 PBCs, 25 pancreatitis patients, 25 clinical controls, and seven cases of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia (IPMN). An unbiased machine learning approach identified the 50 most discriminatory methylation markers for the discrimination of PBC from pancreatitis and controls resulting in an AUROC of 0.85 and 0.88 for a training (n = 45) and a validation (n = 37) data set, respectively. The panel was also able to distinguish high grade from low grade IPMN samples. CONCLUSIONS: We present a proof of concept for a methylation biomarker panel with better performance and improved discriminatory power than the current clinical marker CA19-9 for the discrimination of pancreato-biliary cancers from non-cancerous pancreatitis patients and clinical controls. This workflow might be used in future diagnostics for the detection of precancerous lesions, e.g. the identification of high grade IPMNs vs. low grade IPMNs.

American College of Gastroenterology Guidelines: Management of Acute Pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis (AP), defined as acute inflammation of the pancreas, is one of the most common diseases of the gastrointestinal tract leading to hospital admission in the United States. It is important for clinicians to appreciate that AP is heterogenous, progressing differently among patients and is often unpredictable. While most patients experience symptoms lasting a few days, almost one-fifth of patients will go on to experience complications, including pancreatic necrosis and/or organ failure, at times requiring prolonged hospitalization, intensive care, and radiologic, surgical, and/or endoscopic intervention. Early management is essential to identify and treat patients with AP to prevent complications. Patients with biliary pancreatitis typically will require surgery to prevent recurrent disease and may need early endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography if the disease is complicated by cholangitis. Nutrition plays an important role in treating patients with AP. The safety of early refeeding and importance in preventing complications from AP are addressed. This guideline will provide an evidence-based practical approach to the management of patients with AP.

The role of proteomics in acute pancreatitis: new and old knowledge.

INTRODUCTION: Around 20% of individuals diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) may develop severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), possibly resulting in a mortality rate ranging from 15% to 35%. There is an urgent need to thoroughly understand the molecular phenotypes of SAP resulting from diverse etiologies. The field of translational research on AP has seen the use of several innovative proteomic methodologies via the ongoing improvement of isolation, tagging, and quantification methods. AREAS COVERED: This paper provides a comprehensive overview of differentially abundant proteins (DAPs) identified in AP by searching the PubMed/MEDLINE database (2003-2023) and adds significantly to the current theoretical framework. EXPERT OPINION: DAPs for potentially diagnosing AP based on proteomic identification need to be confirmed by multi-center studies that include larger samples. The discovery of DAPs in various organs at different AP stages via proteomic technologies is essential better to understand the pathophysiology of AP-related multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Regarding the translational research of AP, novel approaches like single-cell proteomics and imaging using mass spectrometry may be used as soon as they become available.

Risk and factors determining diabetes after mild, nonnecrotizing acute pancreatitis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is relatively common following acute pancreatitis (AP), even after mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), the most frequent AP presentation, in which there is no overt beta cell injury. Post-AP related diabetes is widely misdiagnosed, resulting in potentially inappropriate treatment and worse outcomes than type 2 diabetes (T2D). Thus, it is important to understand risk across the spectrum of AP severity. RECENT FINDINGS: Biological mechanisms are unclear and may include local and systemic inflammation leading to beta cell dysfunction and insulin resistance, altered gut barrier and/or gut peptides and possibly islet autoimmunity, though no studies have specifically focused on MAP. While studies examining clinical risk factors on MAP exclusively are lacking, there are studies which include MAP. These studies vary in scientific rigor, approaches to rule out preexisting diabetes, variable AP severity, diagnostic testing methods, and duration of follow-up. Overall, disease related factors, including AP severity, as well as established T2D risk factors are reported to contribute to the risk for DM following AP. SUMMARY: Though numerous studies have explored risk factors for DM after AP, few studies specifically focused on MAP, highlighting a key knowledge gap that is relevant to the majority of patients with AP.

Immune markers of severe acute pancreatitis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Acute pancreatitis is a common acute inflammatory disorder of the pancreas, and its incidence has been increasing worldwide. Approximately 10% of acute pancreatitis progresses to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which carries significant morbidity and mortality. Disordered immune response to pancreatic injury is regarded as a key event that mediates systemic injury in SAP. In this article, we review recent developments in immune biomarkers of SAP and future directions for research. RECENT FINDINGS: Given the importance of the NLRP3-inflammasome pathway in mediating systemic inflammatory response syndrome and systemic injury, recent studies have investigated associations of SAP with systemic levels of activators of NLRP3, such as the damage associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) for the first time in human SAP. For example, circulating levels of histones, mitochondrial DNAs, and cell free DNAs have been associated with SAP. A panel of mechanistically relevant immune markers (e.g., panel of Angiopoeitin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, interleukin-8 (IL-8), resistin and sTNF-α R1) carried higher predictive accuracies than existing clinical scores and individual immune markers. Of the cytokines with established relevance to SAP pathogenesis, phase 2 trials of immunotherapies, including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha inhibition and stimulation of IL-10 production, are underway to determine if altering the immunologic response can reduce the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). SUMMARY: Circulating systemic levels of various DAMPs and a panel of immune markers that possibly reflect activities of different pathways that drive SAP appear promising as predictive biomarkers for SAP. But larger multicenter studies are needed for external validation. Studies investigating immune cellular pathways driving SAP using immunophenotyping techniques are scarce. Interdisciplinary efforts are also needed to bring some of the promising biomarkers to the bedside for validation and testing for clinical utility. Studies investigating the role of and characterization of altered gut-lymph and gut-microbiota in severe AP are needed.

Severe lupus enteritis: A diagnostic and therapeutic enigma.

Lupus enteritis refers to the gastrointestinal involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). It presents with diverse symptoms that frequently overlap with those of other acute abdominal conditions, posing diagnostic challenges. We describe an adolescent female, with lupus pancreatitis and nephritis, who later developed severe lupus enteritis during the course of her illness. She was treated with pulse methylprednisolone and intravenous cyclophosphamide and gradually improved over 3 weeks. Our case highlights the need to consider lupus enteritis in patients with severe pain abdomen and intractable vomiting. Presence of lupus pancreatitis and nephritis are risk factors for development of enteritis.

Pancreas-related persisting sequelae in ALL survivors with a history of asparaginase-associated pancreatitis: A part of the ALL-STAR study.

OBJECTIVES: Asparaginase-associated pancreatitis (AAP) occurs in up to 18% of patients treated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL); however, long-term sequelae are largely unexplored. We aimed to explore pancreatic sequelae among ALL survivors with and without AAP. METHODS: We investigated pancreatic sequelae in a national cohort of ALL survivors, aged 1-45 years at ALL diagnosis treated according to the NOPHO-ALL2008 protocol and included sex- and age-matched community controls. RESULTS: We included 368 survivors (median follow-up 6.9 years), including 47 survivors with AAP and 369 controls. The p-lipase and p-pancreas-type amylase levels were lower in AAP survivors compared with both non-AAP survivors (Medians: 23 U/L [IQR 14-32] and 18 U/L [IQR 10-25] versus 29 [IQR 24-35] and 22 [17-28], p < .001 and p = .002) and community controls (28 U/L [IQR 22-33] and 21 U/L [IQR 17-26], both p < .006). Fecal-elastase was more frequently reduced in AAP survivors compared with non-AAP survivors (7/31 vs. 4/144, p = .001). Persisting pancreatic sequelae were found in 15/47 of AAP survivors and 20/323 of non-AAP survivors (p < .001), including diabetes mellitus in 2/39 of AAP survivors and 2/273 of non-AAP survivors. CONCLUSIONS: ALL survivors with AAP are at increased risk of persisting pancreatic dysfunction and require special attention during follow-up.

Early Predictive Value of Different Indicators for Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

GOALS: In this study, we conducted this network meta-analysis (based on the ANOVA model) to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each early predictor. BACKGROUND: Persistent organ failure (POF) is one of the determining factors in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP); however, the diagnosis of POF has a long-time lag (>48 h). It is of great clinical significance for the early noninvasive prediction of POF. STUDY: We conducted a comprehensive and systematic search in PubMed, Cochrane library, Embase, and Web of Science to identify relevant clinical trials, case-control studies, or cohort studies, extracted the early indicators of POF in studies, and summarized the predictive efficacy of each indicator through network meta-analysis. The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was used to rank the prediction efficiency of each indicator. RESULTS: We identified 23 studies in this network meta-analysis, including 10,393 patients with AP, of which 2014 patients had POF. A total of 10 early prediction indicators were extracted. The mean and 95% CI lower limit of each predictive indicator were greater than 1.0. Albumin had the largest diagnostic odds ratio, followed by high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), Ranson Score, beside index for severity in acute pancreatitis Score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, C-reactive protein (CRP), Interleukin 6 (IL-6), Interleukin 8 (IL-8), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and blood urea nitrogen. CONCLUSIONS: Albumin, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, Ranson Score, and beside index for severity in acute pancreatitis Score are effective in the early prediction of POF in patients with AP, which can provide evidence for developing effective prediction systems. However, due to the limitations of the extraction method of predictive indicators in this study, some effective indicators may not be included in this meta-analysis.

Accuracy of ChatGPT3.5 in answering clinical questions on guidelines for severe acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines must be interpreted comprehensively and correctly to standardize the clinical process. However, this process is challenging and requires interpreters to have a medical background and qualifications. In this study, the accuracy of ChatGPT3.5 in answering clinical questions related to the 2019 guidelines for severe acute pancreatitis was evaluated. METHODS AND RESULTS: An observational study was conducted using the 2019 guidelines for severe acute pancreatitis. The study compared the accuracy of ChatGPT3.5 in English versus Chinese and found that it was more accurate in English (71%) than in Chinese (59%) (P value: 0.203). Additionally, the study assessed the accuracy of ChatGPT3.5 in answering short-answer questions versus true/false questions and found that it was more accurate in answering short-answer questions (76%) than in answering true/false questions (60%) (P value: 0.405). CONCLUSIONS: For clinicians managing severe acute pancreatitis, ChatGPT3.5 may have potential value. However, it should not be relied upon excessively for clinical decision making.

Identifying novel acute pancreatitis sub-phenotypes using total serum calcium trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) has heterogeneous clinical features, and identifying clinically relevant sub-phenotypes is useful. We aimed to identify novel sub-phenotypes in hospitalized AP patients using longitudinal total serum calcium (TSC) trajectories. METHODS: AP patients had at least two TSC measurements during the first 24 h of hospitalization in the US-based critical care database (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV were included. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify calcium trajectory phenotypes, and patient characteristics and treatment outcomes were compared between the phenotypes. RESULTS: A total of 4518 admissions were included in the analysis. Four TSC trajectory groups were identified: "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (n = 65; 1.4% of the cohort); "Moderately low TSC" (n = 559; 12.4%); "Stable normal-calcium" (n = 3875; 85.8%); and "Fluctuating high TSC" (n = 19; 0.4%). The "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" had the lowest initial, maximum, minimum, and mean TSC, and highest SOFA score, creatinine and glucose level. In contrast, the "Stable normal-calcium" had the fewest ICU admission, antibiotic use, intubation and renal replace treatment. In adjusted analysis, significantly higher in-hospital mortality was noted among "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 3.7 to 14.0), "moderately low TSC" (OR, 5.0; 95% CI, 3.8 to 6.7), and "Fluctuating high TSC" (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 20.6) compared with the "Stable normal-calcium" group. CONCLUSIONS: We identified four novel sub-phenotypes of patients with AP, with significant variability in clinical outcomes. Not only the absolute TSC levels but also their trajectories were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study from a tertiary center.

PURPOSE: There is a lack of adequate models specifically designed for elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to predict the risk of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP in elderly patients. METHODS: Elderly patients diagnosed with SAP between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022 were included in the study. Risk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Subsequently, a novel nomogram model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using metrics such as the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 326 patients were included in the analysis, with 260 in the survival group and 66 in the deceased group. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age, respiratory rate, arterial pH, total bilirubin, and calcium were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients. The nomogram demonstrated a performance comparable to sequential organ failure assessment (P = 0.065). Additionally, the calibration curve showed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the DCA highlighted the clinical application value of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: We have identified key demographic and laboratory parameters that are associated with the survival of elderly patients with SAP. These parameters have been utilized to create a precise and user-friendly nomogram, which could be an effective and valuable clinical tool for clinicians.

Is serum albumin a pivotal biomarker in anticipating acute pancreatitis outcomes?

This study aimed to assess the significance of serum albumin levels within 24 h of patient admission in correlation with the incidence of outcomes and mortality in patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. A retrospective study was conducted over a 5-year period, from January 2018 to December 2023, at the Mohammed VI University Hospital in Oujda, Morocco. The study included 371 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was observed in 124 patients (33.4% of cases), and these patients had a higher mean age compared to those with normal albumin levels (P = 0.003). Hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with persistent Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) (70.8% vs. 29.2%, P = 0.000), a higher BISAP score (66.7% vs. 33.3%, P = 0.000), and a higher CTSI score (51.7% vs. 48.3%, P = 0.000). Hypoalbuminemia was also associated with the presence of pleural effusion (P = 0.000). The mortality in the sample was 4.6%, and it was significantly associated with hypoalbuminemia (76.5%, P = 0.000). In conclusion, serum albumin levels within 24 h of patient admission appear to be a significant prognostic biomarker in acute pancreatitis, particularly in anticipating persistent organ failure and mortality.

Predictive value of thrombin-antithrombin III complex and tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex biomarkers in assessing the severity of early-stage acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The development of acute pancreatitis (AP) is strongly linked to blood clotting and fibrinolysis issues. Modern clinical practices now utilize advanced blood markers like thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT), plasmin-α2-plasmin inhibitor complex, thrombomodulin (TM), and tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex (t-PAIC) to assess thrombosis risk. Our study used a highly sensitive chemiluminescence technique to measure these markers in AP patients, aiming to determine their early predictive value for AP severity. METHODS: There were 173 patients with AP, all of whom developed symptoms within 72 h; 102 individuals had onset symptoms within 48 h. The biomarkers were measured upon admission before determining the severity of AP. RESULTS: The levels of TAT, plasmin-α2-plasmin inhibitor complex, TM, and t-PAIC were significantly higher in the severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) group compared with the mild acute pancreatitis and moderate severe acute pancreatitis groups. For the patients within 72 h of onset, TAT, TM, and t-PAIC predicted the occurrence of SAP. For the patients within 48 h of onset, TAT and t-PAIC predicted the occurrence of SAP. The area under the curve (AUC) of prediction models is similar to Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) but significantly higher than C-reactive protein (P < 0.05). Notably, t-PAIC had a larger AUC than TAT, BISAP, and C-reactive protein. CONCLUSION: In the initial 48 h, plasma TAT and t-PAIC levels may predict the development of SAP. Within 72 h, plasma levels of TAT, TM, and t-PAIC may predict the development of SAP, and the TAT + TM + t-PAIC prediction model achieved a maximum AUC of 0.915, comparable to BISAP.

Hyponatremia Is Associated with Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis Patients.

BACKGROUND: Disorders of serum sodium are common among general patients and are associated with poor outcomes. The prognostic value of serum sodium disorders in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been studied. We conducted this retrospective study to explore the association between serum sodium levels and the outcomes of patients with AP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) were screened for this study. The laboratory variables, including serum sodium levels, were obtained by analyzing the first blood sample on the first day after admission. Univariate logistic regression was performed to discover potential factors for mortality of AP. The unadjusted and adjusted association between serum sodium level and mortality of AP was shown by the restricted cubic spline (RCS). The categorical cutoff for the detrimental effect of serum sodium level on the prognosis of AP was also confirmed by stepwise logistic regression after adjusting for con-founding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 869 patients with AP in the MIMIC-III were included with a mortality of 13.1%. Unadjusted logistic regression showed that age (p < 0.001), simplified acute physiological score (SAPS) (p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), hemoglobin (p = 0.040), serum creatinine (p = 0.046), and serum phosphorus (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the mortality of AP. The RCS showed that the serum sodium level was negatively and linearly associated with mortality of AP after adjusting for confounding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression. Serum sodium < 133 mmol/L, which indicated hyponatremia, was significantly correlated with a higher mortality risk than serum sodium ≥ 133 mmol/L (p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Hyponatremia is widely developed among patients with AP and correlates with a higher mortality risk of AP. Physicians should pay more attention to managing patients with AP with hyponatremia.

Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis and Dynamic Nomogram for Risk Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis is easily confused with abdominal pain symptoms, and it could lead to serious complications for pregnant women and fetus, the mortality was as high as 3.3% and 11.6-18.7%, respectively. However, there is still lack of sensitive laboratory markers for early diagnosis of APIP and authoritative guidelines to guide treatment. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy, establish, and evaluate the dynamic prediction model of risk factors in acute pancreatitis in pregnancy patients. STUDY DESIGN: Clinical data of APIP patients and non-pregnant acute pancreases patients who underwent regular antenatal check-ups during the same period were collected. The dataset after propensity matching was randomly divided into training set and verification set at a ratio of 7:3. The model was constructed using Logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, R language and other methods. The training set model was used to construct the diagnostic nomogram model and the validation set was used to validate the model. Finally, the accuracy and clinical practicability of the model were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 111 APIP were included. In all APIP patients, hyperlipidemic pancreatitis was the most important reason. The levels of serum amylase, creatinine, albumin, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and apolipoprotein A1 were significantly different between the two groups. The propensity matching method was used to match pregnant pancreatitis patients and pregnant non-pancreatic patients 1:1 according to age and gestational age, and the matching tolerance was 0.02. The multivariate logistic regression analysis of training set showed that diabetes, triglyceride, Body Mass Index, white blood cell, and C-reactive protein were identified and entered the dynamic nomogram. The area under the ROC curve of the training set was 0.942 and in validation set was 0.842. The calibration curve showed good predictive in training set, and the calibration performance in the validation set was acceptable. The calibration curve showed the consistency between the nomogram model and the actual probability. CONCLUSION: The dynamic nomogram model we constructed to predict the risk factors of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy has high accuracy, discrimination, and clinical practicability.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Predictive Nomogram for Assessing the Risk of Recurrence of Acute Pancreatitis in Combined Hypertriglyceridemia.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new nomogram-based scoring system for anticipating the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in combined hypertriglyceridemia (HTG). METHODS: A total of 292 patients diagnosed with AP combined with HTG participated in this research. Among them, 201 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Clinical data were collected for all patients. In the training set, predictive indicators were chosen through backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed based on the selected indicators. Finally, the model's performance was validated in both the training and validation sets. RESULTS: By employing backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis, we identified diabetes, gallstones, alcohol consumption, and triglyceride levels as predictive indicators. Subsequently, a clinical nomogram that incorporates these four independent risk factors was constructed. Model validation demonstrated an AUC of 0.726 (95% CI 0.644-0.809) in the training set and an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI 0.583-0.842) in the validation set, indicating a good discriminative ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded P-values of 0.882 and 0.536 in the training and validation sets, respectively, suggesting good calibration. Calibration curves further confirmed good agreement. Ultimately, decision curve analysis (DCA) emphasized the clinical utility of our model. CONCLUSION: We have developed a nomogram for predicting the recurrence of AP combined with HTG in patients, and this nomogram demonstrates good discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility. This tool holds the potential to assist clinicians in offering more personalized treatment strategies for AP combined with HTG.

Serum Lactate Is an Indicator for Short-Term and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Serum lactate, as a single and an easily available biomarker, has been applied in various diseases. AIMS: In this study, we aimed to explore the predictive value of serum lactate for short-term and long-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in intensive care unit (ICU) based on a large-scale database. METHODS: AP patients admitted in ICU in the MIMIC-IV database were included. We constructed three different models to investigate the relationships between serum lactate and clinical outcomes, including 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP. Smooth fitting curves were performed for intuitively demonstrating the relationship between serum lactate and different outcomes in AP by the generalized additive model. RESULTS: A total of 895 AP patients admitted in ICU were included. The mortalities of 30 days, 180 days, and 1 year were 12.63% (n = 113), 16.87% (n = 151), and 17.54% (n = 157). In model B, with 1-mmol/L increment in serum lactate, the values of OR in 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 1.20 (95%CI 1.04-1.37, P = 0.0094), 1.21 (95%CI 1.06-1.37, P = 0.0039), and 1.21 (95%CI 1.07-1.38, P = 0.0035). The AUCs of serum lactate for predicting 30-day, 180-day, and 1-year mortality in AP were 0.688 (95%CI 0.633-0.743), 0.655 (95%CI 0.605-0.705), and 0.653 (95%CI 0.603-0.701), respectively. The cut-off value of serum lactate predicting 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP was 2.4 mmol/L. CONCLUSION: Serum lactate could be an indicator for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with AP admitted in ICU.