Impact of Health Insurance, Poverty, and Comorbidities on Colorectal Cancer Screening: Insights from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Despite national campaigns and other efforts to improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, participation rates remain below targets set by expert panels. We hypothesized that availability and practice patterns of healthcare providers may contribute to this gap. METHOD: Using data of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for the years between 2000 and 2016, we extracted demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related data as well as reported experiences about barriers to care, correlating results with answers about recent participation in colorectal cancer screening. As CRC screening guidelines recommend initiation of testing at age 50, we focused on adults 50 years or older. RESULTS: We included responses of 163,564 participants for the period studied. There was a significant increase in CRC screening rates over time. Comorbidity burden, poverty, race, and ethnicity independently predicted participation in screening. Lack of insurance coverage and cost of care played an important role as reported barrier. Convenient access to care, represented by availability of appointments beyond typical business hours, and frequency of provider interactions, correlated with higher rates of screening. CONCLUSION: Our data show a positive effect of educational efforts and healthcare reform with coverage of screening. Easy and more frequent access to individual providers predicted a higher likelihood of completed screening tests. This finding could translate into more widespread implementation of screening programs, as the increasingly common virtual care delivery offers a new and convenient option to patients.

Pediatric Anesthesia Severe Adverse Events Leading to Anesthetic Morbidity and Mortality in a Tertiary Care Center in a Low- and Middle-Income Country: A 25-Year Audit.

BACKGROUND: The analysis of adverse events, including morbidity and mortality (M&M), helps to identify subgroups of children at risk and to modify clinical practice. There are scant data available from low- and middle-income countries. Our aim was to estimate the proportion of pediatric patients with various severe adverse events in the perioperative period extending to 48 hours and to describe the clinical situations and causes of those events. METHODS: We reviewed the M&M database of the Department of Anesthesiology between 1992 and 2016. A data collection tool was developed, and the outcomes were standardized. Each case was reviewed independently and subsequently discussed between 2 reviewers to identify a major primary causative factor. RESULTS: The total number of pediatric cases during this period was 48,828. Seventy-six significant adverse events were identified in 39 patients (8 patients [95% confidence interval {CI}, 5.7-10.9] per 10,000). Thirteen patients had multisystem involvement, and hence the total number of events exceeded the number of patients. Respiratory events were the most common (33.5%). Thirteen patients had perioperative cardiac arrest within 48 hours of surgery (2.6 [95% CI, 1.3-4.3] per 10,000), 7 of these were infants (54%), 5 of whom had congenital heart disease (CHD). Eleven of these 39 patients died within 48 hours (2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-4.0] per 10,000).In 13 cases, anesthesia was assessed to be the predominant cause of morbidity (2.6 per 10,000), whereas in 26 cases, it contributed partially (5.32 per 10,000). There was only 1 death solely related to anesthesia (0.2 per 10,000), and this death occurred before the start of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events were uncommon. Respiratory complications were the most frequent (33%). Infants, especially those with CHD, were identified as at a higher risk for perioperative cardiac arrest, but this association was not tested statistically. Twenty-eight percent of the patients who suffered events died within 48 hours. Increased access to anesthesia drugs and practice improvements resulted in a decline in perioperative cardiac arrests.

Nationally and regionally representative analysis of 1.65 million children aged under 5 years using a child-based human development index: A multi-country cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Education and health are both constituents of human capital that enable people to earn higher wages and enhance people's capabilities. Human capabilities may lead to fulfilling lives by enabling people to achieve a valuable combination of human functionings-i.e., what people are able to do or be as a result of their capabilities. A better understanding of how these different human capabilities are produced together could point to opportunities to help jointly reduce the wide disparities in health and education across populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use nationally and regionally representative individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 55 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine patterns in human capabilities at the national and regional levels, between 2000 and 2017 (N = 1,657,194 children under age 5). We graphically analyze human capabilities, separately for each country, and propose a novel child-based Human Development Index (HDI) based on under-five survival, maternal educational attainment, and measures of a child's household wealth. We normalize the range of each component using data on the minimum and maximum values across countries (for national comparisons) or first-level administrative units within countries (for subnational comparisons). The scores that can be generated by the child-based HDI range from 0 to 1. We find considerable heterogeneity in child health across countries as well as within countries. At the national level, the child-based HDI ranged from 0.140 in Niger (with mean across first-level administrative units = 0.277 and standard deviation [SD] 0.114) to 0.755 in Albania (with mean across first-level administrative units = 0.603 and SD 0.089). There are improvements over time overall between the 2000s and 2010s, although this is not the case for all countries included in our study. In Cambodia, Malawi, and Nigeria, for instance, under-five survival improved over time at most levels of maternal education and wealth. In contrast, in the Philippines, we found relatively few changes in under-five survival across the development spectrum and over time. In these countries, the persistent location of geographical areas of poor child health across both the development spectrum and time may indicate within-country poverty traps. Limitations of our study include its descriptive nature, lack of information beyond first- and second-level administrative units, and limited generalizability beyond the countries analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: This study maps patterns and trends in human capabilities and is among the first, to our knowledge, to introduce a child-based HDI at the national and subnational level. Areas of chronic deprivation may indicate within-country poverty traps and require alternative policy approaches to improving child health in low-resource settings.

The role of cities in reducing the cardiovascular impacts of environmental pollution in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As low- and middle-income countries urbanize and industrialize, they must also cope with pollution emitted from diverse sources. MAIN TEXT: Strong and consistent evidence associates exposure to air pollution and lead with increased risk of cardiovascular disease occurrence and death. Further, increasing evidence, mostly from high-income countries, indicates that exposure to noise and to both high and low temperatures may also increase cardiovascular risk. There is considerably less research on the cardiovascular impacts of environmental conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the levels of pollution are often higher and the types and sources of pollution markedly different from those in higher-income settings. However, as such evidence gathers, actions to reduce exposures to pollution in low- and middle-income countries are warranted, not least because such exposures are very high. Cities, where pollution, populations, and other cardiovascular risk factors are most concentrated, may be best suited to reduce the cardiovascular burden in LMICs by applying environmental standards and policies to mitigate pollution and by implementing interventions that target the most vulnerable. The physical environment of cities can be improved though municipal processes, including infrastructure development, energy and transportation planning, and public health actions. Local regulations can incentivize or inhibit the polluting behaviors of industries and individuals. Environmental monitoring can be combined with public health warning systems and publicly available exposure maps to inform residents of environmental hazards and encourage the adoption of pollution-avoiding behaviors. Targeted individual or neighborhood interventions that identify and treat high-risk populations (e.g., lead mitigation, portable air cleaners, and preventative medications) can also be leveraged in the very near term. Research will play a key role in evaluating whether these approaches achieve their intended benefits, and whether these benefits reach the most vulnerable. CONCLUSION: Cities in LMICs can play a defining role in global health and cardiovascular disease prevention in the next several decades, as they are well poised to develop innovative, multisectoral approaches to pollution mitigation, while also protecting the most vulnerable.

The global burden of epilepsy report: Implications for low- and middle-income countries.

The Global Burden of Epilepsy Report estimates that there are 13 million disability adjusted life years due to epilepsy each year. Estimates of years lived with disability attributed to uncontrolled and untreated epilepsies are particularly raised in comparison to controlled epilepsies in countries with low sociodemographic indices. There are 50 million people with epilepsy in the world and of these, 125,000 die each year, and over 80% of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Overall, a global decline in the number of epilepsy-related deaths has been seen between 1990 and 2016. The least improvements have been, however, recorded in countries with low sociodemographic indices. These countries include 13 African countries, which have recorded an increase in number of epilepsy deaths over the 26 years. The huge burden of untreated and uncontrolled epilepsy and of epilepsy-related deaths in low- and middle-income countries calls for urgent efforts to improve access to epilepsy management.

Poverty, insurance, and region as predictors of epilepsy treatment among US adults.

Disparities in epilepsy treatment have previously been reported. In the current study, we examine the role of socioeconomic status, health insurance, place of residence, and sociodemographic characteristics in past-year visit to a neurology or epilepsy provider and current use of antiseizure medications. Multiple years of data were compiled from the National Health Interview Surveys, Sample Adult Epilepsy Modules. The sample (n = 1655) included individuals 18 years and older who have been told by a doctor to have epilepsy or seizures. Independent variables included number of seizures in the past year, health insurance, poverty status, education, region, race/ethnicity, foreign-born status, age, and sex/gender. Two sets of weighted hierarchical logistic regression models were estimated predicting past-year epilepsy visit and current medication use. Accounting for recent seizure activity and other factors, uninsured and people residing outside of the Northeast were less likely to see an epilepsy provider, and people living in poverty were less likely to use medications, relative to their comparison groups. However, no racial/ethnic and nativity-based differences in specialty service or medication use were observed. Further research, including longitudinal studies of care trajectories and outcomes, are warranted to better understand healthcare needs of people with epilepsy, in particular treatment-resistant seizures, and to develop appropriate interventions at the policy, public health, and health system levels.

What Factors Explain the Decline in Widowed Women's Poverty?

Historically, women in widowhood in the United States have been vulnerable, with high rates of poverty. However, over the past several decades, their poverty rate has fallen considerably. In this article, we look at why this decline occurred and whether it will continue. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study linked to Social Security administrative earnings and benefit records, we address these questions by exploring three factors that could have contributed to this decline: (1) women's rising levels of education; (2) their increased attachment to the labor force; and (3) increasing marital selection, reflecting that whereas marriage used to be equally distributed, it is becoming less common among those with lower socioeconomic status. The project decomposes the share of the decline in poverty into contributions by each of these factors and also projects the role of these factors in the future. The results indicate that increases in education and work experience have driven most of the decline in widows' poverty to date, but that marital selection will likely play a large role in a continuing decline in the future. Still, even after these effects play out, poverty among widows will remain well above that of married women.

Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America.

We highlight the paradoxical implications of decadal reclassification of U.S. counties (and America's population) from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status between 1960 and 2017. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we show that the reclassification of U.S. counties has been a significant engine of metropolitan growth and nonmetropolitan decline. Over the study period, 753-or nearly 25% of all nonmetropolitan counties-were redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as metropolitan, shifting nearly 70 million residents from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan America by 2017. All the growth since 1970 in the metropolitan share of the U.S. population came from reclassification rather than endogenous growth in existing metropolitan areas. Reclassification of nonmetropolitan counties also had implications for drawing appropriate inferences about rural poverty, population aging, education, and economic growth. The paradox is that these many nonmetropolitan "winners"-those experiencing population and economic growth-have, over successive decades, left behind many nonmetropolitan counties with limited prospects for growth. Our study provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and economic malaise but also highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

Socioeconomic disparities in prehospital cardiac arrest outcomes: An analysis of the NEMSIS database.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic disparities are engrained in the US healthcare system and may extend to the prehospital cardiac arrest setting where mortality is high. METHODS: Using the National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS) database, 150,003 cases were analyzed comparing socioeconomic status and cardiac arrest outcomes. Cardiac arrest outcomes were measured by the percent of cases that achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and the percent of cases in which ROSC occurred in the Emergency Department (ED) as opposed to a prehospital setting which was a proxy for the length of time spent in cardiac arrest. Chi-square tests checked for statistical significance and effect size was measured using Pearson's r values and linear regression coefficients. RESULTS: Comparing neighborhood poverty level and the percent of cardiac arrest cases that achieved ROSC resulted in a Pearson's r value of 0.9424 (R2 = 0.8881, p < 0.005) and a linear regression coefficient of 2.088 (p < 0.05, R2 = 0.8881, 95% CI [1.059, 3.117]) meaning for every interval increase in poverty, the chance of an individual in cardiac arrest achieving ROSC decreases 2.09%. Comparing neighborhood poverty level and the percent of ROSC cases that occurred in the ED yielded a Pearson's r value of 0.9005 (R2 = 0.8109, p < 0.05) and a linear regression coefficient of 0.7701 (p < 0.05, R2 = 0.8109, 95% CI [0.254, 1.286]) meaning for every interval increase in poverty, the chance that ROSC is delayed increases 0.77%. CONCLUSIONS: Low income individuals in cardiac arrest have a statistically significant lower probability of achieving ROSC and a higher chance of delayed ROSC.

Accelerated epigenetic aging in adolescents from low-income households is associated with altered development of brain structures.

The relationship between cognitive performance, macro and microstructural brain anatomy and accelerated aging as measured by a highly accurate epigenetic biomarker of aging known as the epigenetic clock in healthy adolescents has not been studied. Healthy adolescents enrolled in the Cape Town Adolescent Antiretroviral Cohort Study were studied cross sectionally. The Illumina Infinium Methylation EPIC array was used to generate DNA methylation data from the blood samples of 44 adolescents aged 9 to 12 years old. The epigenetic clock software and method was used to estimate two measures, epigenetic age acceleration residual (AAR) and extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA). Each participant underwent neurocognitive testing, T1 structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Correlation tests were run between the two epigenetic aging measures and 10 cognitive functioning domains, to assess for differences in cognitive performance as epigenetic aging increases. In order to investigate the associations of epigenetic age acceleration on brain structure, we developed stepwise multiple regression models in R (version 3.4.3, 2017) including grey and white matter volumes, cortical thickness, and cortical surface area, as well as DTI measures of white matter microstructural integrity. In addition to negatively affecting two cognitive domains, visual memory (p = .026) and visual spatial acuity (p = .02), epigenetic age acceleration was associated with alterations of brain volumes, cortical thickness, cortical surface areas and abnormalities in neuronal microstructure in a range of regions. Stress was a significant predictor (p = .029) of AAR. Understanding the drivers of epigenetic age acceleration in adolescents could lead to valuable insights into the development of neurocognitive impairment in adolescents.

Challenges on the provision of palliative care for patients with cancer in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant benefits of palliative care (PC) services for cancer patients, multiple challenges hinder the provision of PC services for these patients. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are witnessing a sharp growth in the burden of non-communicable diseases. There is a significant gap between demand and supply of PC in LMICs in current health services. This review aims to synthesise evidence from previous reviews and deliver a more comprehensive mapping of the existing literature about personal, system, policy, and organisational challenges and possible facilitators on the provision of PC services for cancer patients in LMICs. METHODS: A systematic review of reviews was performed following PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsycINFO, Web of Sciences, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify review papers published between 2000 and 2018 that considered challenges and possible facilitators to PC provision. A modified socioecological model was used as a framework for analysing and summarising findings. RESULTS: Fourteen reviews were included. The reviews varied in terms of aim, settings, and detail of the challenges and possible facilitators. The main challenges of personal and health care systems included knowledge deficits and misunderstandings from patients, families, the general public, and health care providers about PC; and inadequate number of trained workforce. Besides, limited physical infrastructure, insufficient drugs for symptom relief and lack of a comprehensive national plan for implementing PC were the core organisational and policy level challenges that were recognised. Furthermore, the main possible facilitators that were identified included provision of adequate training for health care providers and health education for patients, families and the general public to enhance their knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes to PC. Finally, involvement of policymakers and making drugs available for symptom relief should also be in place to improve the health care systems. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding challenges to the provision of PC for people with cancer could help in the development of a PC pathway in LMICs. This knowledge could be used as a guide to develop an intervention programme to improve PC. Political influence and support are also required to ensure the sustainability and the provision of high-quality PC.

Incorporating Injury Prevention Into Energy Weatherization Programs.

Clients receiving weatherization/energy services with an added injury prevention home assessment with modifications/repairs experienced a decline in falls and thus fall-related costs. Interventions in 35 homes were associated with significant reductions in falls from baseline to 6 months postintervention (from 94% to 9%; P < .001) and falls with calls for assistance (from 23% to 3%; P < .02). The decline in falls with calls for assistance in the intervention group was significant when adjusted for a comparison group effect (P = .07). At a median cost of $2058 per home, the addition of an injury prevention component led by an occupational therapist offers the potential to avoid expensive fall-related medical costs (lift assistance, hospital transport and admission, long-term care). Integration of injury prevention into weatherization work, which targets lower-income seniors with high energy use, offers potential to reduce costly hospitalizations and poor health outcomes.

Incidence of eclampsia and related complications across 10 low- and middle-resource geographical regions: Secondary analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, approximately 42,000 women died as a result of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy worldwide; over 99% of these deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this paper is to describe the incidence and characteristics of eclampsia and related complications from hypertensive disorders of pregnancy across 10 low- and middle-income geographical regions in 8 countries, in relation to magnesium sulfate availability. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a secondary analysis of a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial undertaken in sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Haiti. This trial implemented a novel vital sign device and training package in routine maternity care with the aim of reducing a composite outcome of maternal mortality and morbidity. Institutional-level consent was obtained, and all women presenting for maternity care were eligible for inclusion. Data on eclampsia, stroke, admission to intensive care with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, and maternal death from a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy were prospectively collected from routine data sources and active case finding, together with data on perinatal outcomes in women with these outcomes. In 536,233 deliveries between 1 April 2016 and 30 November 2017, there were 2,692 women with eclampsia (0.5%). In total 6.9% (n = 186; 3.47/10,000 deliveries) of women with eclampsia died, and a further 51 died from other complications of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (0.95/10,000). After planned adjustments, the implementation of the CRADLE intervention was not associated with any significant change in the rates of eclampsia, stroke, or maternal death or intensive care admission with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. Nearly 1 in 5 (17.9%) women with eclampsia, stroke, or a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy causing intensive care admission or maternal death experienced a stillbirth or neonatal death. A third of eclampsia cases (33.2%; n = 894) occurred in women under 20 years of age, 60.0% in women aged 20-34 years (n = 1,616), and 6.8% (n = 182) in women aged 35 years or over. Rates of eclampsia varied approximately 7-fold between sites (range 19.6/10,000 in Zambia Centre 1 to 142.0/10,000 in Sierra Leone). Over half (55.1%) of first eclamptic fits occurred in a health-care facility, with the remainder in the community. Place of first fit varied substantially between sites (from 5.9% in the central referral facility in Sierra Leone to 85% in Uganda Centre 2). On average, magnesium sulfate was available in 74.7% of facilities (range 25% in Haiti to 100% in Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe). There was no detectable association between magnesium sulfate availability and the rate of eclampsia across sites (p = 0.12). This analysis may have been influenced by the selection of predominantly urban and peri-urban settings, and by collection of only monthly data on availability of magnesium sulfate, and is limited by the lack of demographic data in the population of women delivering in the trial areas. CONCLUSIONS: The large variation in eclampsia and maternal and neonatal fatality from hypertensive disorders of pregnancy between countries emphasises that inequality and inequity persist in healthcare for women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Alongside the growing interest in improving community detection and health education for these disorders, efforts to improve quality of care within healthcare facilities are key. Strategies to prevent eclampsia should be informed by local data. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 41244132.

Health system performance for people with diabetes in 28 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), urgently requiring detailed evidence to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. In an effort to understand at what step in the diabetes care continuum individuals are lost to care, and how this varies between countries and population groups, this study examined health system performance for diabetes among adults in 28 LMICs using a cascade of care approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We pooled individual participant data from nationally representative surveys done between 2008 and 2016 in 28 LMICs. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl), random plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200 mg/dl), HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or reporting to be taking medication for diabetes. Stages of the care cascade were as follows: tested, diagnosed, lifestyle advice and/or medication given ("treated"), and controlled (HbA1c < 8.0% or equivalent). We stratified cascades of care by country, geographic region, World Bank income group, and individual-level characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment, household wealth quintile, and body mass index [BMI]). We then used logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects to evaluate predictors of (1) testing, (2) treatment, and (3) control. The final sample included 847,413 adults in 28 LMICs (8 low income, 9 lower-middle income, 11 upper-middle income). Survey sample size ranged from 824 in Guyana to 750,451 in India. The prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%-9.5%), and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%-5.2%). Health system performance for management of diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of being tested, and low rates of diabetes control. Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of those not tested, tested but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but with diabetes not controlled) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%-78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was significantly better in upper-middle income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only half of participants with diabetes who were tested achieved diabetes control. Greater age, educational attainment, and BMI were associated with higher odds of being tested, being treated, and achieving control. The limitations of this study included the use of a single glucose measurement to assess diabetes, differences in the approach to wealth measurement across surveys, and variation in the date of the surveys. CONCLUSIONS: The study uncovered poor management of diabetes along the care cascade, indicating large unmet need for diabetes care across 28 LMICs. Performance across the care cascade varied by World Bank income group and individual-level characteristics, particularly age, educational attainment, and BMI. This policy-relevant analysis can inform country-specific interventions and offers a baseline by which future progress can be measured.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The socioeconomic burden of chronic lung disease in low-resource settings across the globe - an observational FRESH AIR study.

BACKGROUND: Low-resource settings are disproportionally burdened by chronic lung disease due to early childhood disadvantages and indoor/outdoor air pollution. However, data on the socioeconomic impact of respiratory diseases in these settings are largely lacking. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden in diverse low-resource settings across the globe. To inform governmental and health policy, we focused on work productivity and activity impairment and its modifiable clinical and environmental risk factors. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional, observational FRESH AIR study in Uganda, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, and Greece. We assessed the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden using validated questionnaires among spirometry-diagnosed COPD and/or asthma patients (total N = 1040). Predictors for a higher burden were studied using multivariable linear regression models including demographics (e.g. age, gender), health parameters (breathlessness, comorbidities), and risk factors for chronic lung disease (smoking, solid fuel use). We applied identical models per country, which we subsequently meta-analyzed. RESULTS: Employed patients reported a median [IQR] overall work impairment due to chronic lung disease of 30% [1.8-51.7] and decreased productivity (presenteeism) of 20.0% [0.0-40.0]. Remarkably, work time missed (absenteeism) was 0.0% [0.0-16.7]. The total population reported 40.0% [20.0-60.0] impairment in daily activities. Breathlessness severity (MRC-scale) (B = 8.92, 95%CI = 7.47-10.36), smoking (B = 5.97, 95%CI = 1.73-10.22), and solid fuel use (B = 3.94, 95%CI = 0.56-7.31) were potentially modifiable risk factors for impairment. CONCLUSIONS: In low-resource settings, chronic lung disease-related absenteeism is relatively low compared to the substantial presenteeism and activity impairment. Possibly, given the lack of social security systems, relatively few people take days off work at the expense of decreased productivity. Breathlessness (MRC-score), smoking, and solid fuel use are potentially modifiable predictors for higher impairment. Results warrant increased awareness, preventive actions and clinical management of lung diseases in low-resource settings from health policymakers and healthcare workers.