Business cycles and healthcare employment.

Is healthcare employment recession-proof? We examine the long-standing hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the business cycle. We explicitly distinguish between negative aggregate demand and supply shocks in studying how healthcare employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the recession. First, aggregate healthcare employment responds procyclically during demand-induced recessions but remains stable during supply-induced recessions. Second, healthcare utilization drops significantly during demand-induced recessions, explaining the decline in healthcare employment during these periods. Finally, there is significant heterogeneity in the employment responses of the healthcare sub-sectors. While healthcare employment in most sub-sectors responds procyclically during recessions caused by both negative demand and supply shocks, it responds countercyclically in nursing-dominant sectors. Importantly, by isolating the recessionary impact of negative aggregate demand shocks from supply shocks on healthcare employment, we provide new empirical evidence that healthcare employment, in general, is not recession-proof.

Joint effects of Medicaid eligibility and fees on recession-linked declines in healthcare access and health status.

Whether Medicaid can function as a safety net to offset health risks created by health insurance coverage losses due to job loss is conditional on (1) the eligibility guidelines shaping the pathway for households to access the program for temporary relief, and (2) Medicaid reimbursement policies affecting the value of the program for both the newly and previously enrolled. We find states with more expansive eligibility guidelines lowered the healthcare access and health risk of coverage loss associated with rising unemployment during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Rises in cost-related barriers to care associated with unemployment were smallest in states with expansive eligibility guidelines and higher Medicaid-to-Medicare fee ratios. Similarly, states whose Medicaid programs had expansive eligibility guidelines and higher fees saw the smallest recession-linked declines in self-reported good health. Medicaid can work to stabilize access to health care during periods of joblessness. Our findings yield important insights into the alignment of at least two Medicaid policies (i.e., eligibility and payment) shaping Medicaid's viability as a safety net.

Drug persistence in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases during a major economic crisis: results from a nationwide cross-sectional online survey.

To evaluate the drug persistence in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs) during the current economic crisis in Lebanon and to estimate predictors of persistence. A nationwide multicentric cross-sectional study using an online questionnaire was conducted in Lebanon with patients with chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases (CIRDs) and non-inflammatory RMDs controls between July and October 2022. Disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) were categorized as conventional synthetic (cs), biological (b), subcutaneous (SC) or intravenous (IV), and targeted synthetic (ts). Persistence was defined as "number of tablets or injections taken during the past month versus prescribed". The percentage of patients who discontinued or changed treatment due to cost or non-availability was reported. Factors associated with persistence were identified using multivariable linear regression. The study included 317 patients with RMDs (286 CIRDs); mean age 49.5 years, 68% females, 58% reporting currently low economic level. Persistence at one month was low for tsDMARDs (36%) and bDMARDs (SC55%, IV63%), and acceptable for csDMARDs (88%). A persistence ≥80% was found in 23.3% of patients on tsDMARDs, 42.9% on SC bDMARDs, 45.0% on IV bDMARDs, and 74.7% on csDMARDs. During the past 6 months, 55.8% of CIRD patients discontinued or changed treatment due to non-availability (45.3%) or cost (21.2%). Persistence was positively associated with finding alternative sources such as buying abroad (36%), depending on friends or families abroad (20%), charities (10%), and negatively associated with unemployment and low financial status. Persistence was significantly compromised for essential antirheumatic drugs and was mostly driven by treatment unavailability and cost.

Unveiling the unseen toll: exploring the impact of the Lebanese economic crisis on the health-seeking behaviors in a sample of patients with diabetes and hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Against the backdrop of Lebanon's escalating multifaceted crisis which resulted in medication shortages for chronic diseases and unaffordable healthcare services, the current study endeavors to shed light on a critical yet overlooked facet of the Lebanese economic crisis- its profound impact on the health-seeking behaviors of patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus. METHODS: An exploratory cross-sectional study based on an online questionnaire was conducted on 156 adult Lebanese citizens diagnosed medically with either hypertension or diabetes. We gathered sociodemographic characteristics and healthcare-related challenges faced during the economic crisis. We also assessed stress levels using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-21). Descriptive and bivariate analyses were done using SPSS version 26. RESULTS: The mean age of the population was 49.8 ± 17.7 years old, 51.6% were females and 48.4% were males, 29.7% had diabetes, 51.3% had hypertension and 19.0% had both diseases. Among all, 84.2% reported dissatisfaction with the current healthcare system, 31.6% reported changing their physician mainly because of unaffordable consultation fees (66%) or immigration of the physician (32%). Of those with hypertension and/or diabetes, less than 20% reported finding all their prescribed medications and 47% either modified or discontinued their treatment without seeking medical advice. In case of drug shortage, patients relied on stocked reserves (26%), alternative/generic medications (10%) and external sources for medication procurement such as relatives living abroad (41.7%), outsourcing suppliers (19.9%), dispensaries (19.6%) and NGOs (20.3%). All participants reported a high stress level (5.03/7) with a mean total DASS-21 score of 38.7 ± 35.8 that were attributed to August 4th Beirut port explosion (81.0%), global pandemic (81%), unstable political conditions (90.5%), economic crisis (96.8%), medication shortage (91.8%) and inability to access healthcare (74.1%). Higher sub-scores for anxiety, depression and total stress were insignificantly noted in participants with both hypertension and diabetes (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings explore how the economic crisis has taken its toll on almost all aspects of healthcare in a sample of patients with diabetes and hypertension in Lebanon. The drug shortage as well as disruptions in affordable healthcare access imposed several barriers to adequate adherence to treatment regimens and acted as important mental health stressors.

Impact of the 2008 economic crisis on the burden of hepatitis B and C diseases in Southern European countries.

BACKGROUND: The economic crisis that began in 2008 has severely affected Southern (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) Western European (SWE) countries of Western Europe (WE) and may have affected ongoing efforts to eliminate viral hepatitis. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of the economic crisis on the burden of HBV and HCV disease. METHODS: Global Burden of Diseases 2019 data were used to analyse the rates of epidemiological metrics of HBV and HCV acute and chronic infections in SWE and WE. Time series modelling was performed to quantify the impact of healthcare expenditure on the time trend of HBV and HCV disease burden in 2000-2019. RESULTS: Declining trends in incidence and prevalence rates of acute HBV (aHBV) and chronic HBV were observed in SWE and WE, with the pace of decline being slower in the post-austerity period (2010-2019) and mortality due to HBV stabilised in SWE. Acute HCV (aHCV) metrics and chronic HCV incidence and mortality showed a stable trend in SWE and WE, whereas the prevalence of chronic HCV showed an oscillating trend, decreasing in WE in 2010-2019 (p < 0.001). Liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections showed a stagnant burden over time. An inverse association was observed between health expenditure and metrics of both acute and chronic HBV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiological metrics for HBV and HCV showed a slower pace of decline in the post-austerity period with better improvement for HBV, a stabilisation of mortality and a stagnant burden for liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections. The economic crisis of 2008 had a negative impact on the burden of hepatitis B and C. Elimination of HBV and HCV by 2030 will be a major challenge in the SWE countries.

How do labour market conditions explain the development of mental health over the life-course? a conceptual integration of the ecological model with life-course epidemiology in an integrative review of results from the Northern Swedish Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to contribute to the theoretical development within the field of labour market effects on mental health during life by integrating Bronfenbrenner's ecological model with mainly earlier theoretical work on life-course theory. METHODS: An integrative review was performed of all 52 publications about labour market conditions in relation to mental health from the longitudinal Northern Swedish Cohort study. Inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis were performed in relation to Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework combined with life-course theories. RESULTS: The following nine themes were identified: 1. Macroeconomic recession impairs mental health among young people. 2. The mental health effects on individuals of youth unemployment seem rather insensitive to recession. 3. Small but consistent negative effect of neighbourhood unemployment and other work-related disadvantaged on individuals' mental health over life. 4. Youth unemployment becomes embodied as scars of mental ill-health over life. 5. Weak labour market attachment impairs mental health over life. 6. Bidirectional relations between health and weak labour market attachment over life. 7. Macrolevel structures are of importance for how labour market position cause poor health. 8. Unequal gender relations at work impacts negatively on mental health. 9. The agency to improve health over life in dyadic relations. Unemployment in society permeates from the macrolevel into the exolevel, defined by Bronfenbrenner as for example the labour market of parents or partners or the neighbourhood into the settings closest to the individual (the micro- and mesolevel) and affects the relations between the work, family, and leisure spheres of the individual. Neighbourhood unemployment leads to poor health among those who live there, independent of their employment status. Individuals' exposure to unemployment and temporary employment leads to poorer mental health over the life-course. Temporal dimensions were identified and combined with Bronfenbrenner levels into a contextual life-course model CONCLUSION: Combining the ecosocial theory with life-course theories provides a framework for understanding the embodiment of work-related mental health over life. The labour market conditions surrounding the individual are of crucial importance for the embodiment of mental health over life, at the same time as individual agency can be health promoting. Mental health can be improved by societal efforts in regulations of the labour market.

Health inequalities among people experiencing food insecurity. An intersectional approach.

The study examines the socioeconomic determinants of physical health among populations experiencing food insecurity and receiving free meals in soup kitchens in the Prefecture of Attica, Greece. Data were collected from the same six soup kitchens in 2012, 2017 and 2021, resulting in a dataset of 1533 observations. The study revealed that periods characterised by an economic recession are associated with deteriorated physical health of food-insecure people. Moreover, the study found that physical health deteriorations among food-insecure people are associated with older age, female gender, immigration status, disability and/or long-term health conditions, LGBT status, unemployment, economic inactivity, homelessness, living below the poverty threshold, long-term food dependency, illicit drug consumption and residing in lower- and middle-class areas. The study proposes the Intersectional Model of Health Inequalities, which integrates multiple factors involved in shaping the health inequalities of people experiencing food insecurity, from macro-level factors such as a country's economic performance to individual-level factors like education, employment status and demographic characteristics. The model emphasises that low-income populations should not be treated as a homogeneous entity. Its goal is to inform policymakers about the diverse health inequalities experienced by people with low incomes.

Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case.

After the 2008 World Crisis, there is a view that the economic recovery has not been adequate. In this context, the debate on hysteresis and especially investment hysteresis has increased in the last decade. The aim of this study is to analyze the investment hysteresis and the basic dynamics of hysteresis in the Turkish economy. Structural break tests are used to identify hysteresis. Traditional and asymmetric causality tests are used to identify the fundamental dynamics of hysteresis. Investment, GDP, interest rate, and productivity variables are used to analyze investment hysteresis. Structural break tests were applied to the variables, while conventional and asymmetric causality tests were applied between investments and their determinants. Structural break tests prove the existence of hysteresis. According to the Granger causality test, there is no causality from interest rates, GDP and productivity to investments. The fact that interest rates have no effect on investments proves hysteresis. According to the asymmetric causality test, there is no relationship between interest rates and investments. There is an inverse relationship between GDP and investments. There is an asymmetric relationship between productivity and investments. The fact that productivity shocks cause asymmetric effects on investments makes productivity shocks the main dynamic of hysteresis. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the strong hysteresis and high uncertainty of TFP exacerbate investment hysteresis. Therefore, productivity shocks should be taken into account in policymaking for hysteresis.

Assessment of dietary-lifestyle patterns and adherence to the USDA recommendations in Lebanese pregnant women amid the economic crisis: Findings from a national representative cross-sectional study.

As Lebanon's economic crisis become uncontrollable, Lebanese pregnant women face malnutrition, with many having to skip meals and switch to resort to cheap and unhealthy alternatives altogether. The objectives of the study were to assess the dietary and lifestyle patterns of Lebanese pregnant women and to evaluate their diets compliance with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) pregnancy recommendations, before and during the Lebanese escalating economic crisis. A cross-sectional study was conducted between April 2021 and January 2022. A validated self-administrated questionnaire was administered during the first, second and third trimesters of pregnancy among 363 women in all Lebanese governorates. Most of the pregnant women were free of diseases. While the majority did not smoke, 14.1% smoked hookah / shisha during pregnancy. The adherence to the USDA recommendations in our sample did not significantly vary prior to and throughout the socioeconomic crisis, and it was generally low. Only the mean consumption of vegetables increased during the socioeconomic crisis (p<0.05). Regarding physical activity, while the proportion of active women slightly decreased during the socioeconomic crisis, around 55% were still active. In conclusion, higher attention should be given to the dietary habits and health of this critical population, through effective interventions that increase awareness and achieve measurable improvements.

The policy and politics of healthcare corporatisation: The case of the English NHS.

RATIONALE: Few accounts of healthcare corporatisation examine the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. New Politics of the Welfare State (NPWS) theories recognise the relevance of crises but give more attention to programmatic than systemic (structural) retrenchment, and little to healthcare corporatisation. OBJECTIVE: To examine what changes the 2008 financial crisis produced in the pattern of healthcare corporatisation, and the implications for NPWS theories. METHODS: Using administrative data from the English NHS during 1995-2019 we formulated a multi-dimensional index of corporatisation, tested its validity, and used it to analyse longitudinally how the financial crisis affected the balance between the responsibilization of management and re-commodification (introduction of market-like practices) in provider corporatisation. RESULTS: The financial crisis influenced NHS corporatisation through the fiscal austerity with which governments responded. The re-commodification of NHS providers stalled but not the responsibilization of NHS managers. CONCLUSIONS: The corporatisation of NHS providers faltered after the financial crisis. These findings corroborate parts of NPWS theory but also reveal scope for further elaborating its accounts of systemic retrenchment in health systems.

Relationship between profitability and financial factors of hospitals after a period of austerity and health care reforms: evidence from Greece.

PURPOSE: The reduction of government expenditure in the healthcare system, the difficulty of finding new sources of funding and the reduction in disposable income per capita are the most important problems of the healthcare system in Greece over the last decade. Therefore, studying the profitability of health structures is a crucial factor in making decisions about their solvency and corporate sustainability. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of economic liquidity, debt and business size on profitability for the Greek general hospitals (GHs) during the period 2016-2018. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Financial statements (balance sheets and income statements) of 84 general hospitals (GHs), 52 public and 32 private, over a three-year period (2016-2018), were analyzed. Spearman's Rs correlation was carried out on two samples. FINDINGS: The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between the investigated determinants (liquidity, size) and profitability for both public and private GHs. It was also shown that debt has a negative effect on profitability only for private GHs. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Increasing the turnover of private hospitals through interventions such as expanding private health insurance and adopting modern financial management techniques in public hospitals would have a positive effect both on profitability and the efficient use of limited resources. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: These results, in conjunction with the findings of the low profitability of private hospitals and the excess liquidity of public hospitals, can shape the appropriate framework to guide hospital administrators and government policymakers.

Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales.

The relationship between economic activity and suicides has been the subject of much scrutiny, but the focus in the extant literature has been almost exclusively on estimating associations rather than causal effects. In this paper, using data from England and Wales between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017, we propose a plausible set of assumptions to estimate the causal impacts of well-known macroeconomic variables on the daily suicide rate. Our identification strategy relies on scheduled macroeconomic announcements and professional economic forecasts. An important advantage of using these variables to model suicide rates is that they can efficiently capture the elements of 'surprise or shock' via the observed difference between how the economy actually performed and how it was expected to perform. Provided that professional forecasts are unbiased and efficient, the estimated 'surprises or shocks' are 'as good as random', and therefore are exogenous. We employ time series regressions and present robust evidence that these exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect the suicide rate. Overall, our results are consistent with economic theory that shocks that reduce estimated permanent income, and therefore expected lifetime utility, can propel suicide rates. Specifically, at the population level, negative shocks to consumer confidence and house prices accelerate the suicide rate. However, there is evidence of behavioural heterogeneity between sexes, states of the economy, and levels of public trust in government. Negative shocks to the retail price index (RPI) raise the suicide rate for males. Negative shocks to the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) raise the population suicide rate when the economy is doing poorly. When public trust in government is low, increases in the unemployment rate increase the suicide rate for females.

The dynamics of international health system reforms: Evidence of a new wave in response to the 2008 economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic?

Global economic and health shocks, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic typically impact healthcare financing and delivery. Cutler found that profound societal changes in the 20th century induced three waves of healthcare reform across seven major OECD countries. Our study investigates whether major crises in the 21st century induced similar reform waves. Through thematic analysis, we systematically compared health system changes in response to these shocks, using data from the Observatory on Health Systems and Policies and the OECD. Our analysis reveals similar overarching reform trends across countries in response to the 2008 economic crisis: a tendency toward re-centralization of health system governance to control and leverage the efficient rationalization of public health resources. This, to some extent, countered the effects of the market-based reforms of the previous wave. The reforms induced by the 2008 crisis were mediated by its repercussions on the countries' economies. In contrast, reforms in response to the pandemic aimed primarily to address the direct impact of the shock on the health system. Despite its negative economic impact, the pandemic resulted in a substantial but temporary increase in public health spending. A better understanding reform dynamics and their impact on overarching conflicting health system objectives may prevent unintended consequences and enhance health systems' resilience in response to future shocks.

Impact of the economic crisis, COVID-19 and the Beirut explosion on ophthalmology training in Lebanon: an observational cohort survey-based study.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic crisis and the Beirut explosion on the training and work of ophthalmology residents and faculty in Lebanon. DESIGN: This is an observational cohort survey-based research conducted between January and December 2022. SETTING: The study targeted all ophthalmology residents and core faculty in Lebanon. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 52 participants, including 27 residents and 25 core faculty members, completed the survey. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Primary outcomes comprised the subjectively reported effect of the three major external stressors on the training and well-being of ophthalmology trainees and educators in Lebanon. RESULTS: The study found that the majority of ophthalmology residents and core faculty members were significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Beirut explosion and the economic crisis in Lebanon. Significant percentage reported financial burden, decrease in outpatient and surgical load and educational activities. Furthermore, most participants reported higher levels of stress, anxiety and depression during the time of crises. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasises the need to support healthcare professionals during times of crisis, as they are on the frontlines and can experience high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. By providing support and resources to healthcare professionals, they can better cope with the challenges they face and continue to provide essential care to their patients.

Factors affecting major depression in Iran: a mixed-method study.

Depression is a major cause of disability and, if left untreated, can increase the risk of suicide. Evidence on the determinants of depression is incomplete, making it challenging to interpret results across studies. This study aims to identify the social, economic, environmental, political, and technological factors influencing the great recession in Iran. The study was conducted in two parts. The first step involved a literature review to identify the factors, using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for the search. The reference lists of all identified articles were reviewed to find relevant studies, and the extracted information was summarized and reported descriptively. The second steps involved compiling and consulting 14 experts from different fields, using a framework analysis method. Twenty-four articles were used as primary sources of information, and a total of 28 factors were found to exist. After removing duplicates and related factors, 19 of these were subsequently declared as factors, resulting in a total of 36 determinants being identified. Most of these factors belong to the social category. The health policies implemented have a significant impact on disease risk factors and ultimately their occurrence. Political decisions and policy-making processes play a crucial role in all areas, particularly in addressing disease risk factors. Severe depression can disrupt all aspects of the healthcare system, underscoring the importance of access to care. Policies concerning physical education, transportation, nutrition, employment, green spaces, recreational facilities, and tobacco are vital in this context. The influence of health policies on disease risk factors and disease occurrence is profound. Severe depression can have far-reaching effects on the healthcare system, emphasizing the critical need for access to care. The formulation of policies to combat depression must be thoroughly evaluated in terms of economic, political, social, technological, and environmental factors. The findings suggest that addressing social inequalities and emphasizing the role of political action, as highlighted by the social determinants of health, should be top priorities in addressing depression. Efforts to prevent depression should incorporate ecological approaches that consider the impact of the socioeconomic environment on depressive symptoms.

Association of cigarette smoking with changes in macroeconomic conditions.

This study uses data from the 1987-2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and state-level employment rates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the association between macroeconomic conditions and cigarette smoking. Our finding suggests a positive association, which constantly declined with time after the 2001 recession. We find that a one percentage point increase in the employment rate is associated with a 1.4% higher likelihood of smoking cigarettes in the overall sample but declined to 0.4% among cohorts surveyed from 2011 to 2022. We also find strong positive and heterogeneous associations among sociodemographic groups, except among Blacks and persons aged 65 years and older, among whom there is no association; however, the positive associations consistently decreased among these sociodemographic groups. Consequently, the strong positive association disappeared in several sociodemographic groups in cohorts surveyed over the last decade.

It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas.

This study examines the impact of austerity measures on mortality rates across Italian regions from 2003 to 2018. Since 2007, regions experiencing substantial healthcare financial deficits have been required to implement recovery plans (RPs). We use a recent difference-in-differences staggered matching estimator to assess the effects of this austerity policy on municipal-level monthly mortality rates. This allows us to evaluate the policy's spatial heterogeneity across treated municipalities, accounting for their distance from the nearest hospital. The analysis reveals a significant negative impact of austerity measures on health, particularly in peripheral areas and among vulnerable populations. Mortality rates are higher in regions under RPs, with this effect escalating with increasing distance from hospitals. The policy's impact is also more pronounced among vulnerable populations, with differences observed between genders and across seasons.

Characteristics of and Variation in Suicide Mortality Related to Retirement During the Great Recession: Perspectives From the National Violent Death Reporting System.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Suicide rates typically increase during recessions. However, few studies have explored how recessions affect risk among older adults nearing retirement. This study used a large suicide mortality registry to characterize and quantify suicide related to retirement during the Great Recession (GR). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS, 2004-2017; N = 53,298 suicide deaths age ≥50). We analyzed the text narratives (i.e., descriptions of the most salient circumstances to each suicide) of these decedents using natural language processing (NLP) to identify cases that were "retirement-related" (RR, e.g., anticipating, being unable to, or recently retiring). We used time-series analysis to quantify variation in RR over the GR, and compared these trends to retirees (i.e., decedents whose occupation was "retired") and all decedents aged ≥50. We used content and network analysis to characterize themes represented in the narratives. RESULTS: There were 878 RR cases (1.6% of suicides aged ≥50) identified by the NLP model; only 52% of these cases were among retirees. RR cases were younger (62 vs 75 years) and more educated (41.5% vs 24.5% college degree) than retirees. The rate of RR suicide was positively associated with indicators of the GR (e.g., short-term unemployment R2 = 0.70, p = .024), but economic indicators were not correlated with the suicide rate among retirees or older adults in general. Economic issues were more central to the narratives of RR cases during the GR compared to other periods. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Recessions shape suicide risk related to retirement transitions.

Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.