Trends in cause-specific mortality among children aged 5-14 years from 2005 to 2016 in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico: an analysis of nationally representative mortality studies.

BACKGROUND: With global survival increasing for children younger than 5 years of age, attention is required to reduce the approximately 1 million deaths of children aged 5-14 years occurring every year. Causes of death at these ages remain poorly documented. We aimed to explore trends in mortality by causes of death in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico, which are home to about 40% of the world's children aged 5-14 years and experience more than 200 000 deaths annually at these ages. METHODS: We examined data on 244 401 deaths in children aged 5-14 years from four nationally representative data sources that obtained direct distributions of causes of death: the Indian Million Death Study, the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points, mortality data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, and mortality data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We present data on 12 main disease groups in all countries, with breakdown by communicable and nutritional diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and ill-defined causes. To calculate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each cause, we applied the national cause of death distribution to the UN mortality envelopes for 2005-16 for each country. FINDINGS: Unlike Brazil, China, and Mexico, communicable diseases still account for nearly half of deaths in India in children aged 5-14 years (73 920 [46·1%] of 160 330 estimated deaths in 2016). In 2016, India had the highest death rates in nearly every category, including from communicable diseases. Fast declines among girls in communicable disease mortality narrowed the gap by 2016 with boys in India (32·6 deaths per 100 000 girls vs 26·2 per 100 000 boys) and China (1·7 vs 1·5). In China, injuries accounted for the greatest proportions of deaths (20 970 [53·2%] of 39 430 estimated deaths, in which drowning was a leading cause). The homicide death rate at ages 10-14 years was higher for boys than for girls in Brazil, increasing annually by an average of 0·7% (0·3-1·1). In India and China, the suicide death rates were higher for girls than for boys at ages 10-14 years. By contrast, in Mexico it was higher for boys than for girls, increasing annually by an average of 2·8% (2·0-3·6). Deaths from transport injuries, drowning, and cancer are common in all four countries, with transport accidents among the top three causes of death for both sexes in all countries, except for Indian girls, and cancer in the top three causes for both sexes in Mexico, Brazil, and China. INTERPRETATION: Most of the deaths that occurred between 2005 and 2016 in children aged 5-14 years in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico arose from preventable or treatable conditions. This age group is important for extending some of the global disease-specific targets developed for children younger than 5 years of age. Interventions to control non-communicable diseases and injuries and to strengthen cause of death reporting systems are also required. FUNDING: WHO and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. INTERPRETATION: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Integrating HIV and Nutrition Service Delivery: Pilots in Malawi and Mozambique.

This paper provides the first estimates of impact and cost-effectiveness for integrated HIV and nutrition service delivery in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV and undernutrition are synergistic co-epidemics impacting millions of children throughout the region. To alleviate this co-epidemic, UNICEF supported small-scale pilot programs in Malawi and Mozambique that integrated HIV and nutrition service delivery. We use trends from integration sites and comparison sites to estimate the number of lives saved, infections averted and/or undernutrition cases cured due to programmatic activities, and to estimate cost-effectiveness. Results suggest that Malawi's program had a cost-effectiveness of $11-29/DALY, while Mozambique's was $16-59/DALY. Some components were more effective than others ($1-4/DALY for Malawi's Male motivators vs. $179/DALY for Mozambique's One stop shops). These results suggest that integrating HIV and nutrition programming leads to a positive impact on health outcomes and should motivate additional work to evaluate impact and determine cost-effectiveness using an appropriate research design.

[Cancer and nutrition - a paradigma shift]. / Krebs und Ernährung ­ ein Paradigmenwechsel.

Substantial international differences in the prevalence of cancer disease suppose that nutrition may be an important factor in the development of cancer. Many experts believe, that nutritional factors may contribute up to 35 % to the development of malignant tumors. Many patients have lost substantial body weight already at the time of the diagnosis of the disease as consequence of undernutrition and malnutrition, respectively. During the course of the disease the nutritional status often is deteriorating further. Caused by both the cancer disease itself and the treatment, loss of appetite, changes in taste, nausea and vomiting may additionally contribute to undernutrition. Undernutrition is a relevant factor for the outcome of the disease and for the tolerance of the treatment as well. Therefore, supporting the heavily impaired patients in nutritional intake is of paramount importance and an urgent task for physicians and nurses. In view of physiology, pathophysiology, genetics and molecular biology, metabolic processes in cancer are highly complex regulated and there is increasing evidence that a diet rich in fat and protein is favourable. This, however, implies a paradigma shift away from the "healthy" balanced diet rich in fruit, vegetable and complex carbohydrates. So far, the evidence based data of this new concept is, however, a controversial issue.

Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN sustainable development goal for health.

BACKGROUND: The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a quatitative health target, "Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages". Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide. METHODS: UN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third. RESULTS: Throughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide). INTERPRETATION: Moderate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nutritional Deficiencies and Sarcopenia in Heart Failure: A Therapeutic Opportunity to Reduce Hospitalization and Death.

There is an expanding prevalence pool of heart failure (HF) due to the increasing prevalence of survivors of myocardial infarction, diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and obesity. There is increasing interest in the role of nutrition in all forms of HF, given observations concerning micro- and macronutrient deficiencies, loss of lean body mass or sarcopenia, and their relationships with hospitalization and death. This review examines the relationships among loss of lean body mass, macro- and micronutrient intake, and the natural history of HF, particularly in the elderly, in whom the risks for all-cause rehospitalization, infection, falls, and mortality are increased. These risks are potentially modifiable through strategies that improve nutrition in this vulnerable population.

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990-2013. METHODS: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1-4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths (n = 97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap. CONCLUSIONS: LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors.

[New classification of causes of mortality of nutritional origin by means of the Delphi method]. / Nueva clasificación de las causas de mortalidad de origen nutricional por el método Delphi.

The causes of mortality of nutritional origin (MNO) are not classified in the consecutive reviews of the international disease classification (IDC) and there is no agreement for their most proper classification. The objective of this study is to elaborate, using the last ICD as a guide, a list of causes of mortality of nutritional origin which will be used as a reference in future studies. A two round Delphi method was organized with an expert's consenssus in clinical nutrition. The experts were asked to classify a list of causes of MNO in 4 groups; 1) group A: congenital errors related to nutrition, 2) group B: Causes associated with other pathologies, 3) group 3: Excess and defect nutrition disorders, and 4) excluded. In total, 86 causes of MNO were taken under the consensus of experts, and 79 (91.9%) came to an agreement. 14 (17.7%) causes were classified in group A, 5 (6.3%) causes in group B, 37 (46.8%) causes in group C and 23 (29.1%) were excluded. This is a first approach to the classification of mortality causes of nutritional origin, probably due to the ambiguity and disparity of opinions between experts with respect to these causes. This new classification will be very useful due to the fact that it will enable homogenization of the studies and that way we will have comparable studies, using it as a clarifier annex for the ICD of the moment.

Energy Achievement Rate Is an Independent Factor Associated with Intensive Care Unit Mortality in High-Nutritional-Risk Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Requiring Prolonged Prone Positioning Therapy.

Early enteral nutrition (EN) and a nutrition target >60% are recommended for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), even for those with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Prolonged prone positioning (PP) therapy (>48 h) is the rescue therapy of ARDS, but it may worsen the feeding status because it requires the heavy sedation and total paralysis of patients. Our previous studies demonstrated that energy achievement rate (EAR) >65% was a good prognostic factor in ICU. However, its impact on the mortality of patients with ARDS requiring prolonged PP therapy remains unclear. We retrospectively analyzed 79 patients with high nutritional risk (modified nutrition risk in the critically ill; mNUTRIC score ≥5); and identified factors associated with ICU mortality by using a Cox regression model. Through univariate analysis, mNUTRIC score, comorbid with malignancy, actual energy intake, and EAR (%) were associated with ICU mortality. By multivariate analysis, EAR (%) was a strong predictive factor of ICU mortality (HR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.07-0.56). EAR >65% was associated with lower 14-day, 28-day, and ICU mortality after adjustment for confounding factors. We suggest early EN and increase EAR >65% may benefit patients with ARDS who required prolonged PP therapy.

High nutritional risk using NUTRIC-Score is associated with worse outcomes in COVID-19 critically ill patients.

INTRODUCTION: Background: nutritional risk has been associated with worse outcomes at the critical care unit. The aim of this study was to describe the association between nutritional risk and length of stay, days on mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Methods: a retrospective cohort of ventilated, critically ill patients. We assessed nutrition risk at baseline using NUTRIC-score. Logistic and linear regression models were used to analyze the association between NUTRIC-score and clinical outcomes (days on mechanical ventilation, hospital length of stay, and in-hospital mortality). A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: a total of 112 patients were included, 39.3 % were overweight and 47.3 % were obese. Based on NUTRIC-Score, 66 % and 34 % of patients were at high and low nutritional risk, respectively. High nutritional risk was associated with increased mortality risk (OR: 2.4, 95 % CI, 1.06-5.47, p = 0.036) and higher 28-day mortality (HR: 2.05, 95 % CI, 1.01-4.23, p = 0.04) in comparison with low risk. Conclusion: high nutritional risk is related to mortality in SARS-CoV-2 critically ill patients. Overweight and obesity are common in this sample. More studies are needed to elucidate the impact of nutritional therapy on infection course and outcomes.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Introducción: el riesgo nutricional se asocia a peores desenlaces en los pacientes en estado crítico. El objetivo de este estudio es describir la asociación entre el riesgo nutricional y los días de estancia hospitalaria, los días de ventilación mecánica y la mortalidad en pacientes infectados por el SARS-CoV-2. Métodos: cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes en estado crítico bajo ventilación mecánica invasiva. Se evaluó el riesgo nutricional utilizando la herramienta NUTRIC-Score. Se utilizaron regresiones lineares y logísticas para evaluar la asociación entre el riesgo nutricional y los desenlaces clínicos (días de ventilación mecánica, días de estancia hospitalaria y mortalidad hospitalaria). Se utilizaron curvas de Kaplan-Meier para analizar la sobrevivencia. Resultados: se incluyeron 112 pacientes, el 39,3 % con diagnóstico de sobrepeso y el 47,3 % con obesidad de acuerdo con el IMC. Utilizando la herramienta NUTRIC-Score, el 66 % tenían riesgo nutricional alto y el 34 % riesgo nutricional bajo. El riesgo nutricional alto se asoció a un mayor riesgo de mortalidad (OR: 2,4; IC 95 %: 1,06-5,47; p = 0,036) y mayor mortalidad a 28 días (HR: 2,05; IC 95 %: 1,01-4,23; p = 0,04) en comparación con los individuos con riesgo nutricional bajo. Conclusión: el riesgo nutricional alto se asocia con mortalidad en los pacientes con infección por SARS-CoV-2 en estado crítico. El sobrepeso y la obesidad son comunes en este grupo de pacientes. Se necesitan más estudios que evalúen el impacto de la terapia nutricional sobre el curso de la infección y los desenlaces clínicos.

Does looped nasogastric tube feeding improve nutritional delivery for patients with dysphagia after acute stroke? A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: nasogastric tube (NGT) feeding is commonly used after stroke, but its effectiveness is limited by frequent dislodgement. OBJECTIVE: the objective of the study was to evaluate looped NGT feeding in acute stroke patients with dysphagia. METHODS: this was a randomised controlled trial of 104 patients with acute stroke fed by NGT in three UK stroke units. NGT was secured using either a nasal loop (n = 51) or a conventional adhesive dressing (n = 53). The main outcome measure was the proportion of prescribed feed and fluids delivered via NGT in 2 weeks post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes were frequency of NGT insertions, treatment failure, tolerability, adverse events and costs at 2 weeks; mortality; length of hospital stay; residential status; and Barthel Index at 3 months. RESULTS: participants assigned to looped NGT feeding received a mean 17% (95% confidence interval 5-28%) more volume of feed and fluids, required fewer NGTs (median 1 vs 4), and had fewer electrolyte abnormalities than controls. There was more minor nasal trauma in the loop group. There were no differences in outcomes at 3 months. Looped NGT feeding cost 88 pounds sterling more per patient over 2 weeks than controls. CONCLUSION: looped NGT feeding improves delivery of feed and fluids and reduces NGT reinsertion with little additional cost.

Mortality and risk factors of disease in Nepal: Trend and projections from 1990 to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Between 1990 and 2017, Nepal experienced a shift in the burden of disease from communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional (CMNN) diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). With an increasing ageing population and life-style changes including tobacco use, harmful alcohol consumption, unhealthy diets, and insufficient physical activity, the proportion of total deaths from NCDs will continue to increase. An analysis of current diseases pattern and projections of the trends informs planning of health interventions. This analysis aims to project the mortality and risk factor of disease until 2040, based on past trends. METHODS: This study uses secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study which analyses historic data from 1990 to 2016 to predict key variables such as, the mortality rates, life expectancy and Years of Life Lost for different causes of death from 2017 to 2040. 'GBD Foresight Visualization', a visualisation tool publicly available in the webpage of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was the source of data for this analysis. GBD forecasting uses three-component modelling process: the first component captures variations due to risk factors and interventions, the second takes into consideration the variation due to measures of development quantified as social development index and the third uses an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. We extracted Nepal specific data from it and reported number of deaths, mortality rates (per 100,000 population) as well as causes of death for the period 1990 to 2040. RESULTS: In 1990, CMNN diseases were responsible for approximately two-thirds (63.6%) of total deaths in Nepal. The proportion of the deaths from the CMNN diseases has reduced to 26.8% in 2015 and is estimated to be about a fifth of the 1990 figure (12.47%) in 2040. Conversely, deaths from NCDs reflect an upward trend. NCDs claimed a third of total deaths (29.91%) in the country in 1990, while in 2015, were responsible for about two-thirds of the total deaths (63.31%). In 2040, it is predicted that NCDs will contribute to over two-thirds (78.64%) of total deaths in the country. Less than a tenth (6.49%) of the total deaths in Nepal in 1990 were associated with injuries which increased to 13.04% in 2015 but is projected to decrease to 8.89% in 2040. In 1990, metabolic risk factors including high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index and impaired kidney functions collectively contributed to a tenth of the total deaths (10.38%) in Nepal, whereas, in 2040 more than a third (37.31%) of the total deaths in the country could be attributed to it. CONCLUSION: A reverse of the situation in 1990, NCDs are predicted to be the leading cause of deaths and metabolic risk factors are predicted to contribute to the highest proportion of deaths in 2040. NCDs could demand a major share of resources within the health sector requiring extensive multi-sectoral prevention measures, re-allocation of resources and re-organisation of the health system to cater for long-term care.

Causes of Mortality in a Population of Marine-Foraging River Otters (Lontra canadensis).

Retrospective analysis of diagnostic findings from 30 marine-foraging river otter (Lontra canadensis) carcasses opportunistically acquired between 2003 and 2013 revealed trauma as the most common cause of mortality (47%). Within this focal population, causes of trauma included vehicular, gunshot, and one case of suspect intraspecific aggression. Other causes of death included idiopathic (20%), infectious (13%), metabolic (10%), nutritional (7%), and neoplasia (3%). One case of neoplasia, a pancreatic islet cell adenoma, was identified in a 12-yr-old female. In six animals, diffuse renal interstitial fibrosis and multifocal glomerulosclerosis of unknown clinical significance were noted.

Mortality profiles in a country facing epidemiological transition: an analysis of registered data.

BACKGROUND: Sub-national analyses of causes of death and time-trends help to define public health policy priorities. They are particularly important in countries undergoing epidemiological transition like Peru. There are no studies exploring Peruvian national and regional characteristics of such epidemiological transition. We aimed to describe Peru's national and regional mortality profiles between 1996 and 2000. METHODS: Registered mortality data for the study period were corrected for under-registration following standardized methods. Main causes of death by age group and by geographical region were determined. Departmental mortality profiles were constructed to evaluate mortality transition, using 1996 data as baseline. Annual cumulative slopes for the period 1996-2000 were estimated for each department and region. RESULTS: For the study period non-communicable diseases explained more than half of all causes of death, communicable diseases more than one third, and injuries 10.8% of all deaths. Lima accounted for 32% of total population and 20% of total deaths. The Andean region, with 38% of Peru's population, accounted for half of all country deaths. Departmental mortality predominance shifted from communicable diseases in 1996 towards non-communicable diseases and injuries in 2000. Maternal and perinatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies and nutritional anaemia declined markedly in all departments and regions. Infectious diseases decreased in all regions except Lima. In all regions acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of death, but their proportion ranged from 9.3% in Lima and Callao to 15.3% in the Andean region. Tuberculosis and injuries ranked high in Lima and the Andean region. CONCLUSION: Peruvian mortality shows a double burden of communicable and non-communicable, with increasing importance of non-communicable diseases and injuries. This challenges national and sub-national health system performance and policy making.