Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.

Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.

Would banning atrazine benefit farmers?

Atrazine, an herbicide used on most of the US corn (maize) crop, is the subject of ongoing controversy, with increasing documentation of its potentially harmful health and environmental impacts. Supporters of atrazine often claim that it is of great value to farmers; most recently, Syngenta, the producer of atrazine, sponsored an "Atrazine Benefits Team" (ABT) of researchers who released a set of five papers in 2011, reporting huge economic benefits from atrazine use in US agriculture. A critical review of the ABT papers shows that they have underestimated the growing problem of atrazine-resistant weeds, offered only a partial review of the effectiveness of alternative herbicides, and ignored the promising option of nonchemical weed management techniques. In addition, the most complete economic analysis in the ABT papers implies that withdrawal of atrazine would lead to a decrease in corn yields of 4.4% and an increase in corn prices of 8.0%. The result would be an increase in corn growers' revenues, equal to US$1.7 billion annually under ABT assumptions. Price impacts on consumers would be minimal: at current levels of ethanol production and use, gasoline prices would rise by no more than US$0.03 per gallon; beef prices would rise by an estimated US$0.01 for a 4-ounce hamburger and US$0.05 for an 8-ounce steak. Thus withdrawal of atrazine would boost farm revenues, while only changing consumer prices by pennies.

Can the world afford to ignore biotechnology solutions that address food insecurity?

Genetically engineered (GE) crops can be used as part of a combined strategy to address food insecurity, which is defined as a lack of sustainable access to safe and nutritious food. In this article, we discuss the causes and consequences of food insecurity in the developing world, and the indirect economic impact on industrialized countries. We dissect the healthcare costs and lost productivity caused by food insecurity, and evaluate the relative merits of different intervention programs including supplementation, fortification and the deployment of GE crops with higher yields and enhanced nutritional properties. We provide clear evidence for the numerous potential benefits of GE crops, particularly for small-scale and subsistence farmers. GE crops with enhanced yields and nutritional properties constitute a vital component of any comprehensive strategy to tackle poverty, hunger and malnutrition in developing countries and thus reduce the global negative economic effects of food insecurity.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Experimental optimization of the number of blocks by means of algorithms parameterized by confidence interval in popcorn breeding.

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of repetitions to be used in competition trials of popcorn traits related to production and quality, including grain yield and expansion capacity. The experiments were conducted in 3 environments representative of the north and northwest regions of the State of Rio de Janeiro with 10 Brazilian genotypes of popcorn, consisting by 4 commercial hybrids (IAC 112, IAC 125, Zélia, and Jade), 4 improved varieties (BRS Ângela, UFVM-2 Barão de Viçosa, Beija-flor, and Viçosa) and 2 experimental populations (UNB2U-C3 and UNB2U-C4). The experimental design utilized was a randomized complete block design with 7 repetitions. The Bootstrap method was employed to obtain samples of all of the possible combinations within the 7 blocks. Subsequently, the confidence intervals of the parameters of interest were calculated for all simulated data sets. The optimal number of repetition for all of the traits was considered when all of the estimates of the parameters in question were encountered within the confidence interval. The estimates of the number of repetitions varied according to the parameter estimated, variable evaluated, and environment cultivated, ranging from 2 to 7. It is believed that only the expansion capacity traits in the Colégio Agrícola environment (for residual variance and coefficient of variation), and number of ears per plot, in the Itaocara environment (for coefficient of variation) needed 7 repetitions to fall within the confidence interval. Thus, for the 3 studies conducted, we can conclude that 6 repetitions are optimal for obtaining high experimental precision.

Probability of success of breeding strategies for improving pro-vitamin A content in maize.

Biofortification for pro-vitamin A content (pVAC) of modern maize inbreds and hybrids is a feasible way to deal with vitamin A deficiency in rural areas in developing countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of success of breeding strategies when transferring the high pVAC present in donors to elite modern-adapted lines. For this purpose, a genetic model was built based on previous genetic studies, and different selection schemes including phenotypic selection (PS) and marker-assisted selection (MAS) were simulated and compared. MAS for simultaneously selecting all pVAC genes and a combined scheme for selecting two major pVAC genes by MAS followed by ultra performance liquid chromatography screening for the remaining genetic variation on pVAC were identified as being most effective and cost-efficient. The two schemes have 83.7 and 84.8% probabilities of achieving a predefined breeding target on pVAC and adaptation in one breeding cycle under the current breeding scale. When the breeding scale is increased by making 50% more crosses, the probability values could reach 94.8 and 95.1% for the two schemes. Under fixed resources, larger early generation populations with fewer crosses had similar breeding efficiency to smaller early generation populations with more crosses. Breeding on a larger scale was more efficient both genetically and economically. The approach presented in this study could be used as a general way in quantifying probability of success and comparing different breeding schemes in other breeding programs.

The challenge of enzyme cost in the production of lignocellulosic biofuels.

With the aim of understanding the contribution of enzymes to the cost of lignocellulosic biofuels, we constructed a techno-economic model for the production of fungal cellulases. We found that the cost of producing enzymes was much higher than that commonly assumed in the literature. For example, the cost contribution of enzymes to ethanol produced by the conversion of corn stover was found to be $0.68/gal if the sugars in the biomass could be converted at maximum theoretical yields, and $1.47/gal if the yields were based on saccharification and fermentation yields that have been previously reported in the scientific literature. We performed a sensitivity analysis to study the effect of feedstock prices and fermentation times on the cost contribution of enzymes to ethanol price. We conclude that a significant effort is still required to lower the contribution of enzymes to biofuel production costs.

Corn ethanol production, food exports, and indirect land use change.

The approximately 100 million tonne per year increase in the use of corn to produce ethanol in the U.S. over the past 10 years, and projections of greater future use, have raised concerns that reduced exports of corn (and other agricultural products) and higher commodity prices would lead to land-use changes and, consequently, negative environmental impacts in other countries. The concerns have been driven by agricultural and trade models, which project that large-scale corn ethanol production leads to substantial decreases in food exports, increases in food prices, and greater deforestation globally. Over the past decade, the increased use of corn for ethanol has been largely matched by the increased corn harvest attributable mainly to increased yields. U.S. exports of corn, wheat, soybeans, pork, chicken, and beef either increased or remained unchanged. Exports of distillers' dry grains (DDG, a coproduct of ethanol production and a valuable animal feed) increased by more than an order of magnitude to 9 million tonnes in 2010. Increased biofuel production may lead to intensification (higher yields) and extensification (more land) of agricultural activities. Intensification and extensification have opposite impacts on land use change. We highlight the lack of information concerning the magnitude of intensification effects and the associated large uncertainties in assessments of the indirect land use change associated with corn ethanol.

Consumer preferences for maize products in urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: New maize varieties have been biofortified with provitamin A, mainly a-carotene, which renders the grain yellow or orange. Unfortunately, many African consumers prefer white maize. The maize consumption patterns in Africa are, however, not known. OBJECTIVE: To determine which maize products African consumers prefer to purchase and which maize preparations they prefer to eat. METHODS: A survey of 600 consumers was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, at three types of maize outlets: posho mills (small hammer mills), kiosks, and supermarkets. RESULTS: Clients of posho mills had lower incomes and less education than those of kiosks and supermarkets. The preferred maize product of the posho-mill clients was artisanal maize meal; the preferred product of the others was industrial maize meal. Maize is the preferred staple for lunch and dinner, eaten as a stiff porridge (ugali), followed by boiled maize and beans (githeri), regardless of socioeconomic background. For breakfast, only half the consumers prefer maize, mostly as a soft porridge (uji). This proportion is higher in low-income groups. Consumers show a strong preference for white maize over yellow, mostly for its organoleptic characteristics, and show less interest in biofortified maize. CONCLUSIONS: Maize is the major food staple in Nairobi, mostly eaten in a few distinct preparations. For biofortified yellow maize to be accepted, a strong public awareness campaign to inform consumers is needed, based on a sensory evaluation and the mass media, in particular on radio in the local language.

Economics of grassland conversion to cropland in the prairie pothole region.

Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland-conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land-use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north-central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland-conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121,000 ha (300,000 acres) of grassland could be converted to cropland annually from 2006 to [corrected] 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high-quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower-quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high-quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high-risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.

Effects of economic downturns on mortality of wild African elephants.

Declines in economic activity and associated changes in human livelihood strategies can increase threats of species overexploitation. This is exemplified by the effects of economic crises, which often drive intensification of subsistence poaching and greater reliance on natural resources. Whereas development theory links natural resource use to social-economic conditions, few empirical studies of the effect of economic downturns on wild animal species have been conducted. I assessed the relations between African elephant (Loxodonta africana) mortality and human-caused wounds in Samburu, Kenya and (1) livestock and maize prices (measures of local economic conditions), (2) change in national and regional gross domestic product (GDP) (measures of macroeconomic conditions), and (3) the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (a correlate of primary productivity). In addition, I analyzed household survey data to determine the attitudes of local people toward protected areas and wild animals in the area. When cattle prices in the pastoralist study region were low, human-caused wounds to and adult mortality of elephants increased. The NDVI was negatively correlated with juvenile mortality, but not correlated with adult mortality. Changes in Kenyan and East Asian (primary market for ivory) GDP did not explain significant variation in mortality. Increased human wounding of elephants and elephant mortality during periods of low livestock prices (local economic downturns) likely reflect an economically driven increase in ivory poaching. Local but not macroeconomic indices explained significant variation in mortality, likely due to the dominance of the subsistence economy in the study area and its political and economic isolation. My results suggest economic metrics can serve as effective indicators of changes in human use of and resulting effects on natural resources. Such information can help focus management approaches (e.g., antipoaching effort or proffering of alternative occupational opportunities) that address variation in local activities that threaten plant and animal populations.

Maximizing profit on New England organic dairy farms: an economic comparison of 4 total mixed rations for organic Holsteins and Jerseys.

The objective of these experiments was to compare 4 total mixed rations fed to USDA-certified organic dairy cows in New England. Forty-eight Jersey cows from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and 64 Holstein cows from the University of Maine (UMaine) were assigned to a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments testing the main effects of corn silage versus grass silage as the forage base and commodity concentrates versus a complete pelleted concentrate mixture. Treatment diets were fed as a total mixed ration for 8 wk during the winter and spring months of 2007, 2008, and 2009. Milk yield, component, and quality data were recorded and used to calculate the value of the milk produced for each cow. The dry matter intake (DMI) was recorded and used to calculate the average cost per cow per day of each diet. Income over feed costs were calculated for each diet using milk value and feed cost data. Feed cost and income over feed cost data were resampled using bootstrap methodology to examine potential patterns. Milk yield, milk fat and true protein concentrations, and SCC were similar among treatments. Cows at UNH fed corn silage tended to have higher DMI and lower milk urea nitrogen than did cows fed grass silage, whereas cows fed pellets had higher DMI than cows fed commodities. Cows at UNH fed commodities tended to have higher body condition scores than those fed pellets. Cows at UMaine fed commodities tended to have higher DMI than did cows fed pellets, and cows fed corn silage had lower milk urea nitrogen than did cows fed grass silage. Body weights and body condition scores were not different for cows at UMaine. Feed costs were significantly higher for corn silage diets and diets at UNH containing pellets, but not at UMaine. The calculated value of the milk and income over feed costs did not differ among treatments at either university. Bootstrap replications indicated that the corn silage with commodities diet generally had the highest feed cost at both UNH and UMaine, whereas grass silage diets containing commodities generally had the lowest cost. In contrast, the grass silage with commodities diets had the highest income over feed cost in the majority of the replications at both UNH and UMaine replications, whereas the corn silage with commodities diets had the lowest rank. Similar results were observed when forage prices were increased or decreased by 5, 10, and 25% above or below the actual feed price. Feeding a grass silage-based diet supplemented with commodity concentrates may have an economic advantage for dairy producers in New England operating under an organic system of production.

The relevance of a rules-based maize marketing policy: an experimental case study of Zambia.

Strategic interaction between public and private actors is increasingly recognised as an important determinant of agricultural market performance in Africa and elsewhere. Trust and consultation tends to positively affect private activity while uncertainty of government behaviour impedes it. This paper reports on a laboratory experiment based on a stylised model of the Zambian maize market. The experiment facilitates a comparison between discretionary interventionism and a rules-based policy in which the government pre-commits itself to a future course of action. A simple precommitment rule can, in theory, overcome the prevailing strategic dilemma by encouraging private sector participation. Although this result is also borne out in the economic experiment, the improvement in private sector activity is surprisingly small and not statistically significant due to irrationally cautious choices by experimental governments. Encouragingly, a rules-based policy promotes a much more stable market outcome thereby substantially reducing the risk of severe food shortages. These results underscore the importance of predictable and transparent rules for the state's involvement in agricultural markets.

The paradox of plows and productivity: an agronomic comparison of cereal grain production under Iroquois hoe culture and European plow culture in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.

Iroquois maize farmers in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries produced three to five times more grain per acre than wheat farmers in Europe. The higher productivity of Iroquois agriculture can be attributed to two factors. First, the absence of plows in the western hemisphere allowed Iroquois farmers to maintain high levels of soil organic matter, critical for grain yields. Second, maize has a higher yield potential than wheat because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway and lower protein content. However, tillage alone accounted for a significant portion of the yield advantage of the Iroquois farmers. When the Iroquois were removed from their territories at the end of the eighteenth century, US farmers occupied and plowed these lands. Within fifty years, maize yields in five counties of western New York dropped to less than thirty bushels per acre. They rebounded when US farmers adopted practices that countered the harmful effects of plowing.

The political economy of maize production and poverty reduction in Zambia: analysis of the last 50 years.

Poverty and food security are endemic issues in much of sub-Saharan Africa. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in the region remains a key Millennium Development Goal. Many African governments have pursued economic reforms and agricultural policy interventions in order to accelerate economic growth that reduces poverty faster. Agricultural policy regimes in Zambia in the last 50 years (1964­2008) are examined here to better understand their likely impact on food security and poverty, with an emphasis on the political economy of maize subsidy policies. The empirical work draws on secondary sources and an evaluation of farm household data from three villages in the Kasama District of Zambia from 1986/87 and 1992/93 to estimate a two-period econometric model to examine the impact on household welfare in a pre- and post-reform period. The analysis shows that past interventions had mixed effects on enhancing the production of food crops such as maize. While such reforms were politically popular, it did not necessarily translate into household-level productivity or welfare gains in the short term. The political economy of reforms needs to respond to the inherent diversity among the poor rural and urban households. The potential of agriculture to generate a more pro-poor growth process depends on the creation of new market opportunities that most benefit the rural poor. The state should encourage private sector investments for addressing infrastructure constraints to improve market access and accelerate more pro-poor growth through renewed investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, gender inclusion, smarter subsidies and regional food trade. However, the financing of such investments poses significant challenges. There is a need to address impediments to the effective participation of public private investors to generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programmes. This article also explores the opportunities for new public­private investments through South­South cooperation and Asia-driven growth for reducing poverty in Zambia.

Improvement of a popcorn population using selection indexes from a fourth cycle of recurrent selection program carried out in two different environments.

We estimated genetic gains for popcorn varieties using selection indexes in a fourth cycle of intrapopulation recurrent selection developed in the campus of the Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense. Two hundred full-sib families were obtained from the popcorn population UNB-2U of the third recurrent selection cycle. The progenies were evaluated in a randomized block design with two replications at sites in two different environments: the Colégio Estadual Agrícola Antônio Sarlo, in Campos dos Goytacazes, and the Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (PESAGRO-RIO), in Itaocara, both in the State of Rio de Janeiro. There were significant differences between families within sets in all traits, indicating genetic variability that could be exploited in future cycles. Thirty full-sib families were selected to continue the program. The selection indexes used to predict the gains were those of Mulamba and Mock, Smith and Hazel. The best results were obtained with the Mulamba and Mock index, which allowed the prediction of negative gains for the traits number of diseased ears and ears attacked by pests, number of broken plants and lodging, as well as ears with poor husk cover. It also provided higher gains for popping expansion and grain yield than with the other indexes, giving values of 10.55 and 8.50%, respectively, based on tentatively assigned random weights.

Fields of dreams: negotiating an ethanol agenda in the Midwest United States.

Corn ethanol production is central in the United States' agrofuels initiatives. In this paper I discuss corn ethanol production in Iowa, USA and examine several dynamics: farmers' positions in agrofuel supply chains; struggles around the construction and operation of agrofuel refineries; the politics of ethanol production and regulation; and the ecological consequences of increased corn production. I argue that current US agrofuels production and politics reinforce longstanding and unequal political economic relationships in industrial agriculture. I also argue that the politics of US agrofuels, focused on carbon accounting for greenhouse gas reduction and energy security, privilege urban and other actors' social and ecological interests over those of rural places of production.