Making sense of agreement among interferon-gamma release assays and tuberculosis skin testing.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin testing (TST) to assess latent tuberculosis infection have been published without a framework to understand the extent to which these two tests should agree. Analyzing the causes of variability in agreement levels is crucial. METHODS: A mathematical model of agreement between dichotomous tests was used to understand variations in the level of agreement between IGRA and TST results. The effect of cut-off point selection on agreement was also explored using the model. Model-based predictions are illustrated using published literature. RESULTS: Analyses of IGRAs and TST that depart from model predictions are an indication that surrogates of prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection may have been improperly measured or analyzed. For fixed prevalence, the extent of agreement between tests depends upon cut-off point selection. Changing cut-off points while holding prevalence constant may lead to increasing, decreasing or even no change in agreement. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers have recognized that experimental error, clinical risk and prevalence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria contribute to study-to-study variability. In the present study, we show that paradoxical findings in certain IGRA studies can be explained by the proposed mathematical model. Re-analysis of existing studies may lead to overlooked hypotheses. Future IGRA studies will require epidemiologically well-characterized populations.

Antibody markers of incident tuberculosis among HIV-infected adults in the USA: a historical prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether serum levels of antibodies against Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens increase before diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN: Serial serum samples were obtained from 30 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infected individuals who developed active TB during a multicenter prospective study on pulmonary complications of HIV/AIDS conducted among >1300 subjects in the USA in the 1980s. Multiple serum samples from 47 matched control individuals who did not develop TB in the same study were also tested. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to 10 M. tuberculosis proteins were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistical techniques to assess patterns, trends and differences in antibody levels relative to time from TB diagnosis. RESULTS: Antibodies to five antigens (ESAT-6, 38 kDa Ag, 16 kDa Ag, malate synthase and MTSA-10/CFP-10), but not to five other antigens (Rv2626c, ferredoxin A, glutamine synthetase, alanine dehydrogenase and Ag85) increased before diagnosis of TB relative to control levels. The earliest increase in the TB group was detected for MTSA-10/CFP-10 (24-30 months pre-diagnosis). CONCLUSIONS: Levels of serum antibodies to particular proteins of M. tuberculosis increase before microbiological and clinical symptoms of active TB. The use of antibody biomarkers for prognostic purposes should therefore be feasible.