Forecasting the COVID-19 Epidemic by Integrating Symptom Search Behavior Into Predictive Models: Infoveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested associations between trends of web searches and COVID-19 traditional metrics. It remains unclear whether models incorporating trends of digital searches lead to better predictions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between Google Trends searches of symptoms associated with COVID-19 and confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. We aim to develop predictive models to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic based on a combination of Google Trends searches of symptoms and conventional COVID-19 metrics. METHODS: An open-access web application was developed to evaluate Google Trends and traditional COVID-19 metrics via an interactive framework based on principal component analysis (PCA) and time series modeling. The application facilitates the analysis of symptom search behavior associated with COVID-19 disease in 188 countries. In this study, we selected the data of nine countries as case studies to represent all continents. PCA was used to perform data dimensionality reduction, and three different time series models (error, trend, seasonality; autoregressive integrated moving average; and feed-forward neural network autoregression) were used to predict COVID-19 metrics in the upcoming 14 days. The models were compared in terms of prediction ability using the root mean square error (RMSE) of the first principal component (PC1). The predictive abilities of models generated with both Google Trends data and conventional COVID-19 metrics were compared with those fitted with conventional COVID-19 metrics only. RESULTS: The degree of correlation and the best time lag varied as a function of the selected country and topic searched; in general, the optimal time lag was within 15 days. Overall, predictions of PC1 based on both search terms and COVID-19 traditional metrics performed better than those not including Google searches (median 1.56, IQR 0.90-2.49 versus median 1.87, IQR 1.09-2.95, respectively), but the improvement in prediction varied as a function of the selected country and time frame. The best model varied as a function of country, time range, and period of time selected. Models based on a 7-day moving average led to considerably smaller RMSE values as opposed to those calculated with raw data (median 0.90, IQR 0.50-1.53 versus median 2.27, IQR 1.62-3.74, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of digital online searches in statistical models may improve the nowcasting and forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic and could be used as one of the surveillance systems of COVID-19 disease. We provide a free web application operating with nearly real-time data that anyone can use to make predictions of outbreaks, improve estimates of the dynamics of ongoing epidemics, and predict future or rebound waves.

Predictors of Long-Term Visual Field Fluctuation in Glaucoma Patients.

PURPOSE: To identify predictive factors for visual field (VF) fluctuation in glaucoma patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1392 eyes (816 patients) with 6 or more VFs and 3 years or more of follow-up. METHODS: For each eye, the VF mean deviation (MD) and the pointwise sensitivities were regressed against time to model the series trend, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was estimated as a measure of variability. Potential predictors were selected with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and included eye laterality, ethnicity, glaucoma type, intraocular pressure (IOP) fluctuation, baseline best corrected-visual acuity, intervening cataract or glaucoma surgery, length of follow-up, frequency of testing, baseline MD, rates of VF progression, and median false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) responses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictors of global and pointwise VF long-term fluctuation. RESULTS: In the global model, left eye (0.063 dB; P = 0.022), Asian descent (0.265 dB; P = 0.006), larger IOP fluctuation (0.051 dB; P < 0.001), intervening cataract surgery (0.090 dB; P = 0.023), longer follow-up (0.130 dB; P < 0.001), worse baseline MD (-0.145 dB; P < 0.001), faster VF decay rate (-0.090 dB; P < 0.001), and higher FP rate (0.145 dB; P < 0.001) and FN rate (0.220 dB; P < 0.001) were predictors of VF fluctuation. In the pointwise model, larger IOP fluctuation (0.039 dB; P = 0.022), longer follow-up (0.340 dB; P < 0.001), higher VF frequency (0.238 dB; P = 0.002), intervening glaucoma surgery (0.190 dB; P = 0.01), worse baseline MD (-0.535 dB; P < 0.001), faster VF decay rate (-0.340 dB; P < 0.001), and higher FP rate (0.255 dB; P < 0.001) and FN rate (0.395 dB; P < 0.001) were associated with increased fluctuation. The multivariable model explained 57% and 28% of the pointwise and global variances, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified novel predictors of VF fluctuation, and explains nearly 60% of the pointwise variance. In the presence of factors predictive of high fluctuation, increased frequency of testing and better analytics will help to identify VF progression more accurately.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and its correlates among community-recruited children living with HIV and uninfected children born to HIV-infected parents in West Bengal, India.

PURPOSE: Helping children living with HIV (CLH) to attain an optimum quality of life is an important goal for HIV programs around the world. Our principal objectives were to determine the association of HIV infection with different domains of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among 8- to 15-year-old CLH in India and to compare the HRQoL parameters between CLH and HIV-negative children born to HIV-infected parents ("HIV-affected"). We also assessed whether antiretroviral therapy (ART) and CD4 lymphocyte counts were associated with HRQoL among CLH. METHODS: Using the "Quality of Life (health-related) of Children Living with HIV/AIDS in India" instrument, we interviewed 199 CLH and 194 HIV-affected children from three districts of West Bengal, India. Participants were asked to quantify the difficulties faced by them in six HRQoL domains: physical, emotional, social, school functioning, symptoms, and discrimination. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 11.6 (SD ± 2.5) years. CLH, compared to HIV-affected children, had poorer scores on all HRQoL domains except 'discrimination.' Among CLH, there were no significant differences in HRQoL domain scores (except in the 'discrimination' domain) between ART-treated and -untreated groups. CD4 lymphocyte count was found to be a significant positive predictor of the 'symptom' scale score. CONCLUSIONS: In India, interventions for CLH mostly focus on biological disease. However, the current study revealed that HRQoL among CLH was much poorer than that of a socio-demographically comparable group. Culturally and developmentally appropriate psychosocial support measures for Indian CLH are urgently needed.

Trabeculectomy Can Improve Long-Term Visual Function in Glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To measure the magnitude and direction of visual field (VF) rates of change in glaucoma patients after intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction with trabeculectomy. DESIGN: Retrospective, comparative, longitudinal cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma. METHODS: Patients who underwent trabeculectomy (Trab) with mitomycin-C (74 eyes of 64 patients) with ≥4 reliable VF measurements before and after trabeculectomy and at least 4 years of follow-up before and after surgery were included. Decay or improvement exponential models were used to calculate pointwise rates of perimetric change before and after surgery. A separate comparison (Comp) group with unoperated glaucoma (71 eyes of 65 patients) with similar baseline damage, number of VF tests, and follow-up was used to address possible regression to the mean. Proportions of VF locations decaying or improving before and after surgery in the Trab group, and during the first and second halves of follow-up in the Comp group, were calculated. A multivariate analysis was used to explore variables associated with VF improvement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The rate of pointwise VF change before and after surgery in the Trab group and Comp group. RESULTS: Patients in the Trab group were followed for 5.1±2.1 years (mean ± standard deviation) before and 5.4±2.3 years after surgery, with 8.9±4.7 VF tests before and 9.0±4.4 VF tests after surgery. The mean rate of change for all VF locations slowed from -2.5±9.3%/year before surgery to -0.10±13.1%/year after surgery (P < 0.001). In the Trab group, 70% of locations decayed and 30% improved preoperatively; postoperatively, 56% decayed and 44% improved. The differences between the Trab and Comp groups were significant (P < 0.0001, chi-square test). The magnitude of IOP reduction correlated with the excess number of VF locations that exhibited long-term improvement postoperatively (P = 0.009). In the Trab group, 57% of eyes had ≥10 improving VF locations postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that trabeculectomy slows the rate of perimetric decay and provide evidence of sustained, long-term improvement of visual function in glaucoma. These findings suggest the possibility of reversal of glaucomatous dysfunction of retinal ganglion cells and their central projections.

Efficacy of Smoothing Algorithms to Enhance Detection of Visual Field Progression in Glaucoma.

Purpose: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of nearest neighbor (NN)- and variational autoencoder (VAE)-smoothing algorithms to reduce variability and enhance the performance of glaucoma visual field (VF) progression models. Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Subjects: 7150 eyes (4232 patients), with ≥ 5 years of follow-up and ≥ 6 visits. Methods: Vsual field thresholds were smoothed with the NN and VAE algorithms. The mean total deviation (mTD) and VF index rates, pointwise linear regression (PLR), permutation of PLR (PoPLR), and the glaucoma rate index were applied to the unsmoothed and smoothed data. Main Outcome Measures: The proportion of progressing eyes and the conversion to progression were compared between the smoothed and unsmoothed data. A simulation series of noiseless VFs with various patterns of glaucoma damage was used to evaluate the specificity of the smoothing models. Results: The mean values of age and follow-up time were 62.8 (standard deviation: 12.6) years and 10.4 (standard deviation: 4.7) years, respectively. The proportion of progression was significantly higher for the NN and VAE smoothed data compared with the unsmoothed data. VF progression occurred significantly earlier with both smoothed data compared with unsmoothed data based on mTD rates, PLR, and PoPLR methods. The ability to detect the progressing eyes was similar for the unsmoothed and smoothed data in the simulation data. Conclusions: Smoothing VF data with NN and VAE algorithms improves the signal-to-noise ratio for detection of change, results in earlier detection of VF progression, and could help monitor glaucoma progression more effectively in the clinical setting. Financial Disclosures: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Preschool enrollment is associated with lower odds of childhood obesity among WIC participants in LA County.

The prevalence of obesity among children in the United States has increased rapidly during the past few decades. Research into social and behavioral determinants of obesity could lead to innovative strategies for prevention. The objective of the present study was to examine the association between childhood obesity and preschool enrollment and number of hours in child care among low-income preschool-aged children who were participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). We conducted a case-control study including 556 3- to 4-year-old children who were either obese (BMI > 95th percentile of reference standard) or normal-weight (BMI 25-75th percentile). The population was largely (96%) Hispanic, an ethnic group that has one of the highest rates of overweight and obesity in adults and children in the US. In multiple logistic regression analysis, controlling for a variety of psychosocial and cognitive home environment variables, key demographics and maternal variables, the odds ratio of being obese was 0.61 for children who attended preschool more than 4 days a week (95% CI: 0.41-0.90). Watching television or videos for an hour or more on a typical day (odds ratio 1.71 (95% CI 1.07-2.75)), and higher maternal BMI (odds ratio 1.08 (95% CI 1.05-1.11)) were independently related to odds of obesity. The impact of preschool attendance and TV viewing are potentially instructive in terms of preventive interventions for children at this age.

Structural-Functional Glaucoma Progression Trajectory in 2-Dimensional Space.

PRCIS: We describe a method that provides rapid visualization of glaucomatous change in a 2-dimensional (2D) structural and functional (S/F) space. PURPOSE: To describe a method to visualize glaucomatous change in a 2D S/F space. DESIGN: This was a retrospective longitudinal observational study. SUBJECTS: Group I included 64 normal and 64 glaucomatous eyes used to develop the structural score. Group II included 957 glaucomatous eyes used to plot the structural-functional progression vectors. METHODS: Subjects were arranged in 2 groups. Group I was a cross-sectional group used to develop a structural score which were applied to longitudinal measurements of patients in group II for vectoral analysis. Visual field index was used as a functional score. Vectors were created for each eye to define structural (x) and functional (y) progression. The structural and functional components were calculated with linear models of optical coherence tomography scores and visual field index. The resultant vector and its confidence interval were plotted in 2D S/F space. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Combined structural-functional glaucomatous progression. RESULTS: Group I included 64 normal and 64 glaucomatous eyes. We calculated 957 vectors (957 eyes of 582 OAG patients) in group II. The mean (±SD) follow-up period was 6.9 (±1.5) years and mean baseline mean deviation (MD) was -4.3 (±5.4). Preperimetric, mild, moderate, and severe groups included 159, 288, 299, and 211 eyes, respectively. Mean baseline MDs in these groups were 0.8, -1.0, -3.7, and -11.2 dB, and mean vector slopes were 0.88, 1.00, 1.98, and 2.69. CONCLUSION: We present a method that presents glaucoma progression in a 2D S/F space. This approach integrates a large amount of longitudinal numerical data and provides the clinician with a rapid and intuitive summary of the patient's glaucoma trajectory.

A Metascore of Multiple Imaging Methods to Measure Long-Term Glaucoma Structural Progression.

Purpose: To develop a structural metascore (SMS) that combines measurements from different devices and expresses them on a single scale to facilitate their long-term analysis. Methods: Three structural measurements (Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II [HRT] rim area, HD-Cirrus optical coherence tomography [OCT] average retinal nerve fiber layer [RNFL] thickness, Spectralis OCT RNFL global thickness) were normalized on a scale of 0 to 100 and converted to a reference value. The resultant metascores were plotted against time. SMS performance was evaluated to predict future values (internal validation), and correlations between the average grades assigned by three clinicians were compared with the SMS slopes (external validation). Results: The linear regression fit with the variance approach, and adjustment to a Spectralis equivalent was the best-performing approach; this was denominated metascore. Plots were created for 3416 eyes of 1824 patients. The average baseline age (± standard deviation) was 69.8 (±13.9), mean follow-up was 11.6 (±4.7) years, and mean number of structural scans per eye was 10.0 (±4.7). The mean numbers of scans per device were 3.8 (±2.5), 5.0 (±2.9), and 1.3 (±3.0) for HRT, Cirrus, and Spectralis, respectively. The metascore slopes' median was -0.3 (interquartile range 1.1). Correlations between the average grades assigned by the three clinicians and the metascore slopes were -0.51, -0.49, and -0.69 for the first (structural measurement printouts alone), second (metascore plots alone), and third (printouts + metascore plots) series of gradings, respectively. The average absolute predictive ability was 7.63/100 (whereas 100 = entire normalized scale). Conclusions: We report a method that converts Cirrus global RNFL and HRT global rim area normalized measurements to Spectralis global RNFL equivalent values to facilitate long-term structural follow-up. Translational Relevance: Because glaucoma changes usually occur slowly, patients are often examined with different instruments during their follow-up, a method that "unifies" structural measurements provided by different devices, which could assist patients' longitudinal structural follow-up.

The chromophobe tumor grading system is the preferred grading scheme for chromophobe renal cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: The prognostic usefulness of the Fuhrman nuclear grading system has been questioned for chromophobe renal cell carcinoma due to its frequent nuclear and nucleolar pleomorphism. Chromophobe tumor grade, a novel 3-tier tumor grading system based on geographic nuclear crowding and anaplasia, was recently reported to be superior to the Fuhrman system. We compared the 2 scoring systems in a large sporadic chromophobe renal cell carcinoma cohort to determine which grading scheme provides the most predictive assessment of clinical risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified a total of 84 cases of sporadic chromophobe renal cell carcinoma in 82 patients from a total of 2,634 cases (3.2%) spanning 1989 to 2010. A subset of 11 tumors had secondary areas of sarcomatoid transformation. All cases were reviewed for Fuhrman nuclear grade and chromophobe tumor grade according to published parameters by an expert genitourinary pathologist blinded to clinicopathological information. RESULTS: The distribution of Fuhrman nuclear grades 1 to 4 was 0%, 52.4%, 32.9% and 14.7% of cases, and the distribution of chromophobe tumor grades 1 to 3 was 48.8%, 36.5% and 14.7%, respectively. Metastasis developed in 20 patients (24.4%). Survival analysis revealed statistically significant differences in recurrence-free survival when adjusted for chromophobe tumor grade and Fuhrman nuclear grade. Chromophobe tumor grade showed a slightly higher AUC for recurrence-free survival and overall survival than the Fuhrman nuclear grading system. Neither chromophobe tumor grade nor Fuhrman nuclear grade was retained as an independent predictor of outcome in multivariate modeling when patients with sarcomatoid lesions were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Chromophobe tumor grade effectively stratifies patients with chromophobe renal cell carcinoma across all grading levels. Since it does not rely on nuclear features, it avoids the hazard of overestimating the malignant potential of chromophobe renal cell carcinoma. Overall chromophobe tumor grade has higher predictive accuracy than the Fuhrman nuclear grading system.

Media literacy as a violence-prevention strategy: a pilot evaluation.

Youth violence is a major unresolved public health problem in the United States and media exposure to violence is a synergistic source of this national problem. One media literacy curriculum designed specifically to address this issue is Beyond Blame: Challenging Violence in the Media. The purpose of this pilot study was to examine the curriculum's feasibility as a full-scale intervention. Intervention and control groups were similar with respect to knowledge of the Beyond Blame curriculum at baseline. Intervention students scored much higher on the posttest compared with the control students. The majority (90.2%) of the intervention students reported a significant increase in pre- to posttest score compared with only 18.8% of the control students (p < .0001). The magnitude of the score increase for intervention students was much greater than those in the control group. Several intervention students (N = 49; 19.9%) improved their score by 12 or more points compared with the control students who showed only a 1- to 7-point score increase (N = 3; 18.8%; p < .0001). The pre-and posttest scores were similar for males and females. Three of the six intervention classrooms scored higher on both the pretest and posttest compared with the other three classrooms.

The Trajectory of Glaucoma Progression in 2-Dimensional Structural-Functional Space.

PURPOSE: To present a method that allows visualization of functional and structural change in 2-dimensional space. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal, observational study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients from the Stein Eye Institute, UCLA from 1993 through 2017. METHODS: Patients were arranged into 2 cohorts. Cohort 1 was used to create a structural score for the horizontal axis of the structural-functional (S-F) 2-dimensional space. The visual field (VF) index was used for the vertical axis as the functional score. Cohort 2 was used to apply those scores for analysis of S-F progression with a combined vector. The first cohort included eyes with mild glaucoma (abnormal glaucoma hemifield test results, pattern standard deviation <0.05 on 2 examinations, or mean deviation [MD] >-5 dB) and normal control participants. The second cohort included all stages of open-angle glaucoma with ≥5 OCT retinal nerve fiber layer scans, ≥5 reliable visual field (VF) results, and follow-up of ≥4 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vectors were created for each eye to represent the trajectory of glaucoma progression over time. Each vector was defined by structural (x-axis) and functional (y-axis) components. The structural component was calculated with a linear model of Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) scores over time. The functional component was calculated with a linear model of VF measurements over time. The resultant vector and its confidence interval were plotted in 2-dimensional S-F space. Eyes were divided into severity stages based on baseline MD. A mean vector was calculated for each severity stage. RESULTS: We obtained 290 vectors from 290 eyes of 196 patients. The mean ± standard deviation follow-up period was 14.6±3.1 years. Average age was 58.6±8.8 years. Preperimetric, mild, moderate, and severe categories included 41, 89, 97, and 63 eyes, respectively. Mean baseline MDs were 0.8 dB, -0.95 dB, -3.57 dB, and -11.51 dB, respectively, and mean vector slopes for each severity categories were 0.79, 0.95, 1.95, and 2.08, respectively. Cook's distance removed 131 (7.1%) and 137 (7.4%) outliers from the structure and function regressions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We report a method to visualize the trajectory of a patient's glaucoma progression in a 2-dimensional S-F space. The slope of the trajectory of glaucoma progression is a function of the severity of the disease.

Pointwise Methods to Measure Long-term Visual Field Progression in Glaucoma.

Importance: Rates of visual field (VF) progression vary among patients with glaucoma. Knowing the rate of progression of individual patients would allow appropriately aggressive therapy for patients with high rates of visual loss and protect those with low rates from unnecessary therapy. Objective: To compare 3 pointwise methods of estimating the rate of VF progression in glaucoma. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, observational cohort study included 729 eyes of 567 consecutive patients with primary open-angle glaucoma who had at least 6 reliable VFs and at least 3 years of follow-up. One hundred seventy-six patients (257 eyes) were treated at a tertiary glaucoma center; in addition, data were collected from 391 participants (472 eyes) in the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study. Data were collected from May 1988 to November 2004 and analyzed from October 2018 to February 2019. Exposures: Estimates of VF progression were measured with guided progression analysis (GPA), pointwise linear regression (PLR), and the glaucoma rate index (GRI). A subgroup analysis was performed in a subset of patients with likely VF progression and likely VF stability. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of VF series detected as progressing, estimates of false-positive proportions, time to detect progression, and agreement among measures. Results: Among the 567 patients included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 65.6 (9.7) years, 300 (52.9%) were female, and 295 (52.0%) were white. The median baseline mean deviation was -6.7 (interquartile range [IQR], -11.6 to -3.5) dB; the median follow-up time, 8.9 (IQR, 7.3-10.4) years. The proportion of eyes labeled as progressing was 27.7% according to the GPA, 33.5% according to the PLR, and 52.9% according to the GRI; pairwise differences for GRI vs PLR were 20% (95% CI, 17%-23%); for GRI vs GPA, 25% (95% CI, 22%-29%); and for PLR vs GPA, 6% (95% CI, 3%-9%; P < .001 for all comparisons, McNemar test). The shortest median time to progression was with the GRI (8.8 [IQR, 2.4-10.5 years), compared with the GPA and PLR (both >16 years). The hazard ratio of VF progression for GRI vs PLR (reference) was 11.3 (95% CI, 9.2-13.7); for GRI vs GPA (reference), 18.1 (95% CI, 14.5-22.6); and for PLR vs GPA (reference), 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.9; P < .001 for all comparisons, Cox proportional hazards regression). These results held in the subgroup with likely progression; the proportions of progressing eyes were 73.7% (115 of 156) for GPA, 81.4% (127 of 156) for PLR, and 92.9% (145 of 156) for GRI. Pairwise difference for GRI vs PLR was 11.5% (95% CI, 7.4%-17.6%; P < .001, McNemar test); for GRI vs GPA, 19.2% (95% CI, 12.6%-26.4%; P < .001, McNemar test); and for PLR vs GPA, 7.7% (95% CI, 0.3%-15.7%; P = .08, McNemar test). Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest GRI can detect long-term VF progression in glaucoma earlier than PLR or GPA. Validation with prospective designs may strengthen the generalizability and value of this method.

The effects of a disease management program on self-reported health behaviors and health outcomes: evidence from the "Florida: a healthy state (FAHS)" Medicaid program.

Premature morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases account for a major proportion of expenditures for health care cost in the United States. The purpose of this study was to measure the effects of a disease management program on physiological and behavioral health indicators for Medicaid patients in Florida. A two-year prospective study of 15,275 patients with one or more chronic illnesses (congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, or asthma) was undertaken. Control of hypertension improved from baseline to Year 1 (adjusted odds ratio = 1.60, p < .05), with maintenance at Year 2. Adjusted cholesterol declined by 6.41 mg/dl from baseline to Year 1 and by 12.41 mg/dl (p < .01) from baseline to Year 2. Adjusted average medication compliance increased by 0.19 points (p < .01) in Year 1 and 0.29 points (p < .01) in Year 2. Patients in the disease management program benefited in terms of controlling hypertension, asthma symptoms, and cholesterol and blood glucose levels.

Preinjury factors and 3-month outcomes following emergency department diagnosis of mild traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the sequelae of mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) by comparing selected outcomes of emergency department-diagnosed patients with mild head injuries to those with non-head injuries. SETTING: Five emergency departments in southern California. PARTICIPANTS: Two cohorts, one with MTBI (n = 689 at initial assessment) and another with non-head injuries (n = 1318). MAIN MEASURES: Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index at 3 months postinjury. RESULTS: Postconcussion symptom rates and summary Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire scores were significantly higher for persons with MTBI than for the comparison cohort. Women reported significantly more symptoms than men. Complaints about sleep quality overall (and also sleep latency and daytime dysfunction subcomponents) were significantly more frequent among those with MTBI. CONCLUSION: Patients with MTBI have significantly more negative outcomes than patients in the comparison cohort and should be clinically managed with these prevalent outcomes in mind. Further study of follow-up medical management and the development of treatment guidelines for this group of patients are both warranted.

Evaluation of a nurse practitioner-led care management model in reducing inpatient drug utilization and cost.

The aim of this research was to evaluate the economic impact of a collaborative nurse practitioner (NP) care management model on the use of pharmaceutical resources, with a focus on antibiotics, among general medicine inpatients. Although studies have shown the effectiveness of care management by NPs, especially as reflected on length of stay and hospital cost, little is known about their impact on drug cost. The researchers utilized pharmaceutical claims data of 1,200 subjects who participated in the Multidisciplinary, Physician, and Nurse Practitioner Study from 2000 to 2004 to assess the effect of the NP-led care management model on drug utilization outcomes. Study findings revealed that the intervention group was associated with significant reduction in drug cost and drug utilization; even though the intervention group was more likely to be given broad-spectrum or other antibiotics, its overall drug and antibiotic costs were lower than the control group. Drug management strategies such as de-escalation and intravenous-to-oral conversion facilitated by NPs may potentially produce both clinically and economically advantageous outcomes among general medicine inpatients.

Quantification of Visual Field Variability in Glaucoma: Implications for Visual Field Prediction and Modeling.

PURPOSE: To quantify visual field (VF) variability as a function of threshold sensitivity and location, and to compare weighted pointwise linear regression (PLR) with unweighted PLR and pointwise exponential regression (PER) for data fit and prediction ability. METHODS: Two datasets were used for this retrospective study. The first was used to characterize and estimate VF variability, and included a total of 4,747 eyes of 3,095 glaucoma patients with six or more VFs and 3 years or more of follow-up. After performing PER for each series, standard deviation of residuals was quantified for each decibel of sensitivity as a measure of variability. A separate dataset was used to test and compare unweighted PLR, weighted PLR, and PER for data fit and prediction, and included 261 eyes of 176 primary open-angle glaucoma patients with 10 or more VFs and 6 years or more of follow-up. RESULTS: The degree of variability changed as a function of threshold sensitivity with a zenith and a nadir at 33 and 11 dB, respectively. Variability decreased with eccentricity and was higher in the central 10° (P < 0.001). Differences among the methods for data fit were negligible. PER was the best model to predict future sensitivity values in the mid term and long term. CONCLUSIONS: VF variability increases with the severity of glaucoma damage and decreases with eccentricity. Weighted linear regression neither improves model fit nor prediction. PER exhibited the best prediction ability, which is likely related to the nonlinear nature of long-term glaucomatous perimetric decay. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: This study suggests that taking into account heteroscedasticity has no advantage in VF modeling.

Risk Factors for Fast Visual Field Progression in Glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To identify baseline and longitudinal risk factors for fast visual field (VF) decay in patients with open-angle glaucoma. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma with ≥6 VFs and ≥4 years of follow-up were included. VF decay rates were measured with the following methods: mean deviation (MD) rate, VF index (VFI) rate, and the Glaucoma Rate Index (GRI). The relationship between VF rates and clinical variables were investigated with linear mixed models. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which factors were associated with fast progression. RESULTS: A total of 1317 eyes of 745 patients with a mean (± SD) age of 63.3 (±10.9) years and a median (interquartile range) MD -2.4 (-0.7 to -5.6) dB at baseline were analyzed. The median (interquartile range) number of VFs was 12 (9 to 16), and mean follow-up duration was 11.5 (±3.7) years. Older age (P < .001), higher peak intraocular pressure (IOP) (P < .001), and glaucoma surgery during the study period (P < .001) were associated with faster rates of progression regardless of the method used. Worse baseline MD was associated with MD rate (P = .02), but neither with VFI rate (P = .37) nor GRI (P = .31); whereas pseudoexfoliative glaucoma was associated with faster rates of progression with MD (P = .008) and VFI (P = .01) rates, but not with GRI. Higher peak IOPs (P = .005) was a significant predictor for fast progression. CONCLUSION: In this cohort, older age, peak IOP, pseudoexfoliative glaucoma, and baseline MD were associated with the rate of glaucomatous VF worsening. Fast progressors had a higher peak IOP than non-fast progressors. The identification and appropriately aggressive treatment of fast progressors would reduce visual disability from glaucoma.

Effectiveness Evaluation of It's Your Game: Keep It Real, a Middle School HIV/Sexually Transmitted Infection/Pregnancy Prevention Program.

PURPOSE: This study assessed the effectiveness of the HIV/sexually transmitted infection/pregnancy prevention program, It's Your Game: Keep It Real (IYG). METHODS: IYG was implemented by classroom teachers in 24 urban middle schools from 2012 to 2015. Using a quasi-experimental design, each year we surveyed ninth-grade students in 10 high schools that were selected based on feeder patterns from project middle schools. We compared two groups of students (n = 4,562): (1) students whose middle school grade cohorts did not receive IYG ("No-IYG"), and (2) students whose middle school grade cohorts received IYG ("IYG"). Multilevel analyses examined differences between the two groups in the initiation of any type of sexual activity (oral, vaginal, or anal sex), presexual behaviors, and psychosocial mediators. RESULTS: Students in the IYG group were less likely to report initiation of sexual activity by ninth grade compared to students in the No-IYG group (odds ratio .77; 95% confidence interval .66-.90). The IYG group was significantly less likely to have engaged in presexual behaviors, including having been on a date, had a boyfriend/girlfriend, and touched or been touched on private body parts. The IYG group had better outcomes on 11 of 19 psychosocial variables, including knowledge; beliefs about abstinence, sex, friends' beliefs, norms, and behaviors; reasons for not having sex; personal limits; exposure to risky situations; self-efficacy; and quality of dating relationships. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that IYG, when implemented on a large scale by trained classroom teachers in urban public schools, had positive impacts on students' behaviors, beliefs, and knowledge.

Comparison of Methods to Detect and Measure Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression.

PURPOSE: To compare methods to assess visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma. METHODS: 4,950 VFs of 253 primary open angle-glaucoma patients were evaluated for progression with the following methods: clinical evaluation, guided progression analysis (GPA), mean deviation (MD), and visual field index (VFI) rates, Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS) and Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS) scores, pointwise linear regression (PLR), permutation of PLR (PoPLR), and glaucoma rate index (GRI). A separate simulated series of longitudinal VFs was assessed with all methods except for GPA and clinical evaluation. RESULTS: The average (±SD) age of the patients at baseline was 65.4 (±11.5) years. The average (±SD) follow-up was 11.8 (±4.6) years, and the mean (±SD) number of VFs was 16.8 (±7.0). Proportion of series detected as progressing was 65% for PoPLR, 58% for GRI, 41% for GPA, 40% for PLR, 36% for CIGTS, 35% for clinicians, 31% for MD rate, 29% for AGIS, and 22% for VFI rate. Median times to detection of progression were 7.3 years for PoPLR, 7.5 years for GRI, 11 years for clinicians, 14 years for GPA, 16 years for PLR, 17 years for CIGTS, 19 years for AGIS, and more than 20 years for MD and VFI rates. In simulated VF series, GRI had the highest partial area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.040) to distinguish between glaucoma progression and aging/cataract decay, followed by VFI rate (0.028), MD rate (0.024), and PoPLR (0.006). CONCLUSIONS: GRI and PoPLR showed the highest proportion of series detected as progressing and shortest times to progression detection. GRI exhibited the best ability to detect progression in the simulated VF series. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Knowledge of the properties of every method would allow tailoring application in both clinical and research settings.

Cataract Surgery and Rate of Visual Field Progression in Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that cataract surgery slows the apparent rate of visual field (VF) decay in primary open-angle glaucoma patients compared with rates measured during cataract progression. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Consecutive open-angle glaucoma patients who underwent cataract surgery and who had ≥4 VFs and ≥3 years of follow-up before and after surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Mean deviation (MD) rate, visual field index (VFI) rate, pointwise linear regression (PLR), pointwise rate of change (PRC), and the Glaucoma Rate Index (GRI) were compared before and after cataract surgery. RESULTS: A total of 134 eyes of 99 patients were included. Median (interquartile range) follow-up was 6.5 (4.7-8.1) and 5.3 (4.0-7.3) years before and after cataract surgery, respectively. All intraocular pressure (IOP) parameters (mean IOP, standard deviation of IOP, and peak IOP) significantly improved (P < .001) after cataract surgery. All VF indices indicated an accelerated VF decay rate after cataract surgery: MD rate (-0.18 ± 0.40 dB/year vs -0.40 ± 0.62 dB/year, P < .001), VFI rate (-0.44% ± 1.09%/year vs -1.19% ± 1.85%/year, P < .001), GRI (-5.5 ± 10.8 vs -13.5 ± 21.5; P < .001), and PRC (-0.62% ± 2.47%/year before and -1.35% ± 3.71%/year after surgery; P < .001) and PLR (-0.20 ± 0.82 dB/year before and -0.42 ± 1.16 dB/year after surgery; P < .001) for all VF locations. Worse baseline MD and postoperative peak IOP were significantly associated with the postoperative VF decay rate and the change in the decay rate after cataract surgery. CONCLUSION: Although all IOP parameters improved after cataract surgery, VFs continued to progress. Cataract surgery does not slow the apparent rate of glaucomatous VF decay as compared to rates measured during the progression of the cataract.