On-demand mobile hypertension training for primary health care workers in Nigeria: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Only one out of every ten Nigerian adults with hypertension has their blood pressure controlled. Health worker training is essential to improve hypertension diagnosis and treatment. In-person training has limitations that mobile, on-demand training might address. This pilot study evaluated a self-paced, case-based, mobile-optimized online training to diagnose and manage hypertension for Nigerian health workers. METHODS: Twelve hypertension training modules were developed, based on World Health Organization and Nigerian guidelines. After review by local academic and government partners, the course was piloted by Nigerian health workers at government-owned primary health centers. Primary care physician, nurse, and community health worker participants completed the course on their own smartphones. Before and after the course, hypertension knowledge was evaluated with multiple-choice questions. Learners provided feedback by responding to questions on a Likert scale. RESULTS: Out of 748 users who sampled the course, 574 enrolled, of whom 431 (75%) completed the course. The average pre-test score of completers was 65.4%, which increased to 78.2% on the post-test (P < 0.001, paired t-test). Health workers who were not part of existing hypertension control programs had lower pre-test scores and larger score gains. Most participants (96.1%) agreed that the training was applicable to their work, and nearly all (99.8%) agreed that they enjoyed the training. CONCLUSIONS: An on-demand mobile digital hypertension training increases knowledge of hypertension management among Nigerian health workers. If offered at scale, such courses can be a tool to build health workforce capacity through initial and refresher training on current clinical guidelines in hypertension and other chronic diseases in Nigeria as well as other countries.

Epidemiology of physical inactivity in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial to preventing noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to provide up-to-date evidence on the epidemiology of insufficient physical activity across Nigeria to increase awareness and prompt relevant policy and public health response. METHODS: A systematic literature search of community-based studies on physical inactivity was conducted. We constructed a meta-regression epidemiologic model to determine the age-adjusted prevalence and number of physically inactive persons in Nigeria for 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: Fifteen studies covering a population of 13 814 adults met our selection criteria. The pooled crude prevalence of physically inactive persons in Nigeria was 52.0% (95% CI: 33.7-70.4), with prevalence in women higher at 55.8% (95% CI: 29.4-82.3) compared to men at 49.3% (95% CI: 24.7-73.9). Across settings, prevalence of physically inactive persons was significantly higher among urban dwellers (56.8%, 35.3-78.4) compared to rural dwellers (18.9%, 11.9-49.8). Among persons aged 20-79 years, the total number of physically inactive persons increased from 14.4 million to 48.6 million between 1995 and 2020, equivalent to a 240% increase over the 25-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and robust strategy that addresses occupational policies, town planning, awareness and information, and sociocultural and contextual issues is crucial to improving physical activity levels in Nigeria.

Development of a simple and effective online training for health workers: results from a pilot in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Health workers (HWs) in Africa face challenges accessing and learning from existing online training opportunities. To address these challenges, we developed a modular, self-paced, mobile-ready and work-relevant online course covering foundational infection prevention and control (IPC) concepts. Here, we evaluate the first pilot of this course, conducted with HWs in Nigeria. METHODS: We used a learner-centered design and prototyping process to create a new approach to delivering online training for HWs. The resulting course comprised 10 self-paced modules optimized for use on mobile devices. Modules presented IPC vignettes in which learning was driven by short assessment questions with feedback. Learners were recruited by distributing a link to the training through Nigeria-based email lists, WhatsApp groups and similar networks of HWs, managers and allied professionals. The course was open to learners for 8 weeks. We tracked question responses and time on task with platform analytics and assessed learning gains with pre- and post-testing. Significance was evaluated with the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, and effect size was calculated using Cohen's d. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-two learners, with roles across the health system, enrolled in the training; 59% completed all 10 modules and earned a certificate. Baseline knowledge of foundational IPC concepts was low, as measured by pre-test scores (29%). Post-test scores were significantly higher at 54% (effect size 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.44). Learning gains were significant both among learners with low pre-test scores and among those who scored higher on the pre-test. We used the Net Promoter Score (NPS), a common user experience metric, to evaluate the training. The NPS was + 62, which is slightly higher than published scores of other self-paced online learning experiences. CONCLUSIONS: High completion rates, significant learning gains and positive feedback indicate that self-paced, mobile-ready training that emphasizes short, low-stakes assessment questions can be an effective, scalable way to train HWs who choose to enroll. Low pre-test scores suggest that there are gaps in IPC knowledge among this learner population.

Influence of contextual socioeconomic position on hypertension risk in low- and middle-income countries: disentangling context from composition.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension has emerged as the single most significant modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and death worldwide. Resource-limited settings are currently experiencing the epidemiological transition from infectious diseases to chronic non-communicable diseases, primarily due to modifications in diet and lifestyle behaviour. The objective of this study was to examine the influence of individual-, community- and country-level factors associated with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Multivariable multi-level logistic regression analysis was applied using 12 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets collected between 2011 and 2018 in LMICs. We included 888,925 respondents (Level 1) nested within 33,883 neighbourhoods (Level 2) from 12 LMICs (Level 3). RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension ranged from 10.3% in the Kyrgyz Republic to 52.2% in Haiti. After adjusting for the individual-, neighbourhood- and country-level factors, we found respondents living in the least deprived areas were 14% more likely to have hypertension than those from the most deprived areas (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.17). We observed a significant variation in the odds of hypertension across the countries and the neighbourhoods. Approximately 26.3 and 47.6% of the variance in the odds of hypertension could be attributed to country- and neighbourhood-level factors, respectively. We also observed that respondents moving to a different neighbourhood or country with a higher risk of hypertension had an increased chance of developing hypertension, the median increase in their odds of hypertension was 2.83-fold (95% CI 2.62 to 3.07) and 4.04- fold (95% CI 3.98 to 4.08), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that individual compositional and contextual measures of socioeconomic status were independently associated with the risk of developing hypertension. Therefore, prevention strategies should be implemented at the individual level and the socioeconomic and contextual levels to reduce the burden of hypertension.

Elimination of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis: Is it a reality in Nigeria by 2020?

BACKGROUND: Congenital syphilis is a global health problem, yet it has received little attention in recent years. Despite cost-effective syphilis screening and treatment, it continues to contribute hugely to perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. AIMS: To determine the prevalence and treatment coverage trend for syphilis among pregnant women in the national prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme in Nigeria and to evaluate progress towards the elimination of congenital syphilis in the country. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of validated national health sector performance data on pregnant women attending antenatal care at prevention of mother-to-child transmission clinics from 2013 to 2016 in Nigeria. RESULTS: The proportion of new antenatal care attendees who annually received serological testing for syphilis increased from 12.2% in 2013 to 16.3% in 2016 (p-trend<0.0001). Although the prevalence of maternal syphilis decreased from 3.2% in 2013 to 1.4% in 2016 (p-trend<0.0001), the syphilis treatment coverage during pregnancy has decreased from 71.3% in 2013 to 54.9% in 2016 (p-trend<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal syphilis screening and treatment in Nigeria are inadequate to meet the elimination aspirations. A rapid scale-up of antenatal care syphilis screening and treatment are crucial to averting an epidemic in Nigeria by 2020.

Physicians' perception of task sharing with non-physician health care workers in the management of uncomplicated hypertension in Nigeria: A mixed method study.

INTRODUCTION: Task sharing and task shifting (TSTS) in the management of hypertension is an important strategy to reduce the burden of hypertension in low-and middle-income countries like Nigeria where there is shortage of physicians below the World Health Organization's recommendations on doctor-patient ratio. The cooperation of physicians is critical to the success of this strategy. We assessed physicians' perception of TSTS with non-physician health workers in the management of hypertension and sought recommendations to facilitate the implementation of TSTS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was an explanatory sequential mixed method study. TSTS perception was assessed quantitatively using a 12-item questionnaire with each item assigned a score on a 5-point Likert scale. The maximum obtainable score was 60 points and those with ≥42 points were classified as having a good perception of TSTS. Twenty physicians were subsequently interviewed for in-depth exploration of their perception of TSTS. RESULTS: A total of 1250 physicians participated in the quantitative aspect of the study. Among the participants, 56.6% had good perception of TSTS in the management of hypertension while about two-thirds (67.5%) agreed that TSTS program in the management of hypertension could be successfully implemented in Nigeria. Male gender (p = 0.019) and working in clinical settings (p = 0.039) were associated with good perception. Twenty physicians participated in the qualitative part of the study. Qualitative analysis showed that TSTS will improve overall care and outcomes of patients with hypertension, reduce physicians' workload, improve their productivity, but may encourage inter-professional rivalry. Wide consultation with stakeholders, adequate monitoring and evaluation will facilitate successful implementation of TSTS in Nigeria. CONCLUSION: This study showed that more than half of the physicians have good perception of TSTS in hypertension management while about two-thirds agreed that it could be successfully implemented in Nigeria. This study provides the needed evidence for increased advocacy for the implementation of TSTS in the management of hypertension in Nigeria. This will consequently result in improved patient care and outcomes and effective utilization of available health care personnel.

One Hundred Years of Hypertension Research: Topic Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Due to scientific and technical advancements in the field, published hypertension research has developed substantially during the last decade. Given the amount of scientific material published in this field, identifying the relevant information is difficult. We used topic modeling, which is a strong approach for extracting useful information from enormous amounts of unstructured text. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to use a machine learning algorithm to uncover hidden topics and subtopics from 100 years of peer-reviewed hypertension publications and identify temporal trends. METHODS: The titles and abstracts of hypertension papers indexed in PubMed were examined. We used the latent Dirichlet allocation model to select 20 primary subjects and then ran a trend analysis to see how popular they were over time. RESULTS: We gathered 581,750 hypertension-related research articles from 1900 to 2018 and divided them into 20 topics. These topics were broadly categorized as preclinical, epidemiology, complications, and therapy studies. Topic 2 (evidence review) and topic 19 (major cardiovascular events) are the key (hot topics). Most of the cardiopulmonary disease subtopics show little variation over time, and only make a small contribution in terms of proportions. The majority of the articles (414,206/581,750; 71.2%) had a negative valency, followed by positive (119, 841/581,750; 20.6%) and neutral valency (47,704/581,750; 8.2%). Between 1980 and 2000, negative sentiment articles fell somewhat, while positive and neutral sentiment articles climbed substantially. CONCLUSIONS: The number of publications has been increasing exponentially over the period. Most of the uncovered topics can be grouped into four categories (ie, preclinical, epidemiology, complications, and treatment-related studies).

Impact of a Newly Established Revolving Outbreak Investigation Fund on Timeliness of Response to Public Health Emergencies in Nigeria.

Timely access to emergency funding has been identified as a bottleneck for outbreak response in Nigeria. In February 2019, a new revolving outbreak investigation fund (ROIF) was established by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). We abstracted the date of NCDC notification, date of verification, and date of response for 25 events that occurred prior to establishing the fund (April 2017 to August 2019) and for 8 events that occurred after establishing the fund (February to October 2019). The median time to notification (1 day) and to verification (0 days) did not change after establishing the ROIF, but the median time to response significantly decreased, from 6 days to 2 days (P = .003). Response to disease outbreaks was accelerated by access to emergency funding with a clear approval process. We recommend that the ROIF should be financed by the national government through budget allocation. Finally, development partners can provide financial support for the existing fund and technical assistance for protocol development toward financial accountability and sustainability.

Public risk perception and behaviours towards COVID-19 during the first and second waves in Nigeria: a secondary data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in public risk perception and risky behaviours during the first wave (W1) and second wave (W2) of COVID-19 in Nigeria, associated factors and observed trend of the outbreak. DESIGN: A secondary data analysis of cross-sectional telephone-based surveys conducted during the W1 and W2 of COVID-19 in Nigeria. SETTING: Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Data from participants randomly selected from all states in Nigeria. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Risk perception for COVID-19 infection categorised as risk perceived and risk not perceived. SECONDARY OUTCOME: Compliance to public health and social measures (PHSMs) categorised as compliant; non-compliant and indifferent. ANALYSIS: Comparison of frequencies during both waves using χ2 statistic to test for associations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses helped estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds of risk perception of oneself contracting COVID-19. Level of statistical significance was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: Triangulated datasets had a total of 6401 respondents, majority (49.5%) aged 25-35 years. Overall, 55.4% and 56.1% perceived themselves to be at risk of COVID-19 infection during the W1 and W2, respectively. A higher proportion of males than females perceived themselves to be at risk during the W1 (60.3% vs 50.3%, p<0.001) and the W2 (58.3% vs 52.6%, p<0.05). Residing in the south-west was associated with not perceiving oneself at risk of COVID-19 infection (W1-AOdds Ratio (AOR) 0.28; 95% CI 0.20 to 0.40; W2-AOR 0.71; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.97). There was significant increase in non-compliance to PHSMs in the W2 compared with W1. Non-compliance rate was higher among individuals who perceived themselves not to be at risk of getting infected (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Risk communication and community engagement geared towards increasing risk perception of COVID-19 should be implemented, particularly among the identified population groups. This could increase adherence to PHSMs and potentially reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.

Improving National Intelligence for Public Health Preparedness: a methodological approach to finding local multi-sector indicators for health security.

The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest evidence of critical gaps in our collective ability to monitor country-level preparedness for health emergencies. The global frameworks that exist to strengthen core public health capacities lack coverage of several preparedness domains and do not provide mechanisms to interface with local intelligence. We designed and piloted a process, in collaboration with three National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs) in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan, to identify potential preparedness indicators that exist in a myriad of frameworks and tools in varying local institutions. Following a desk-based systematic search and expert consultations, indicators were extracted from existing national and subnational health security-relevant frameworks and prioritised in a multi-stakeholder two-round Delphi process. Eighty-six indicators in Ethiopia, 87 indicators in Nigeria and 51 indicators in Pakistan were assessed to be valid, relevant and feasible. From these, 14-16 indicators were prioritised in each of the three countries for consideration in monitoring and evaluation tools. Priority indicators consistently included private sector metrics, subnational capacities, availability and capacity for electronic surveillance, measures of timeliness for routine reporting, data quality scores and data related to internally displaced persons and returnees. NPHIs play an increasingly central role in health security and must have access to data needed to identify and respond rapidly to public health threats. Collecting and collating local sources of information may prove essential to addressing gaps; it is a necessary step towards improving preparedness and strengthening international health regulations compliance.

Tracking the uptake and trajectory of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in 15 West African countries: an interim analysis.

The African Union Bureau of Heads of State and Government endorsed the COVID-19 Vaccine Development and Access Strategy to vaccinate at least 60% of each country's population with a safe and efficacious vaccine by 2022, to achieve the population-level immunity needed to bring the pandemic under control. Using publicly available, country-level population estimates and COVID-19 vaccination data, we provide unique insights into the uptake trends of COVID-19 vaccinations in the 15 countries that comprise the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). Based on the vaccination rates in the ECOWAS region after three months of commencing COVID-19 vaccinations, we provide a projection of the trajectory and speed of vaccination needed to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate of at least 60% of the total ECOWAS population. After three months of the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines across the ECOWAS countries, only 0.27% of the region's total population had been fully vaccinated. If ECOWAS countries follow this trajectory, the sub-region will have less than 1.6% of the total population fully vaccinated after 18 months of vaccine deployment. Our projection shows that to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage of at least 60% of the total population in the ECOWAS sub-region after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment; the speed of vaccination must be increased to 10, 7 and 4 times the current trajectory, respectively. West African governments must deploy contextually relevant and culturally acceptable strategies for COVID-19 vaccine procurements, distributions and implementations in order to achieve reasonable coverage and save lives, sooner rather than later.

Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Targeted public health response to obesity in Nigeria is relatively low due to limited epidemiologic understanding. We aimed to estimate nationwide and sub-national prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult Nigerian population. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, and Africa Journals Online were systematically searched for relevant epidemiologic studies in Nigeria published on or after 01 January 1990. We assessed quality of studies and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude prevalence rates. Using a meta-regression model, we estimated the number of overweight and obese persons in Nigeria in the year 2020. RESULTS: From 35 studies (n = 52,816), the pooled crude prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in Nigeria were 25.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 20.4-29.6) and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.0-15.5), respectively. The prevalence in women was higher compared to men at 25.5% (95% CI: 17.1-34.0) versus 25.2% (95% CI: 18.0-32.4) for overweight, and 19.8% (95% CI: 3.9-25.6) versus 12.9% (95% CI: 9.1-16.7) for obesity, respectively. The pooled mean body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were 25.6 kg/m2 and 86.5 cm, respectively. We estimated that there were 21 million and 12 million overweight and obese persons in the Nigerian population aged 15 years or more in 2020, accounting for an age-adjusted prevalence of 20.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were consistently higher among urban dwellers (27.2% and 14.4%) compared to rural dwellers (16.4% and 12.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria. This is marked in urban Nigeria and among women, which may in part be due to widespread sedentary lifestyles and a surge in processed food outlets, largely reflective of a trend across many African settings.KEY MESSAGESAbout 12 million persons in Nigeria were estimated to be obese in 2020, with prevalence considerably higher among women. Nutritional and epidemiological transitions driven by demographic changes, rising income, urbanization, unhealthy lifestyles, and consumption of highly processed diets appear to be driving an obesity epidemic in the country.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Nigeria in 1995 and 2020: A systematic analysis of current evidence.

Improved understanding of the current burden of hypertension, including awareness, treatment, and control, is needed to guide relevant preventative measures in Nigeria. A systematic search of studies on the epidemiology of hypertension in Nigeria, published on or after January 1990, was conducted. The authors employed random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude hypertension prevalence, and awareness, treatment, and control rates. Using a meta-regression model, overall hypertension cases in Nigeria in 1995 and 2020 were estimated. Fifty-three studies (n = 78 949) met our selection criteria. Estimated crude prevalence of pre-hypertension (120-139/80-89 mmHg) in Nigeria was 30.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.0%-39.7%), and the crude prevalence of hypertension (≥140/90 mmHg) was 30.6% (95% CI: 27.3%-34.0%). When adjusted for age, study period, and sample, absolute cases of hypertension increased by 540% among individuals aged ≥20 years from approximately 4.3 million individuals in 1995 (age-adjusted prevalence 8.6%, 95% CI: 6.5-10.7) to 27.5 million individuals with hypertension in 2020 (age-adjusted prevalence 32.5%, 95% CI: 29.8-35.3). The age-adjusted prevalence was only significantly higher among men in 1995, with the gap between both sexes considerably narrowed in 2020. Only 29.0% of cases (95% CI: 19.7-38.3) were aware of their hypertension, 12.0% (95% CI: 2.7-21.2) were on treatment, and 2.8% (95% CI: 0.1-5.7) had at-goal blood pressure in 2020. Our study suggests that hypertension prevalence has substantially increased in Nigeria over the last two decades. Although more persons are aware of their hypertension status, clinical treatment and control rates, however, remain low. These estimates are relevant for clinical care, population, and policy response in Nigeria and across Africa.

A scorecard of progress towards measles elimination in 15 west African countries, 2001-19: a retrospective, multicountry analysis of national immunisation coverage and surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Regional Office for the Africa Regional Immunization Technical Advisory Group, in 2011, adopted the measles control and elimination goals for all countries of the African region to achieve in 2015 and 2020 respectively. Our aim was to track the current status of progress towards measles control and elimination milestones across 15 west African countries between 2001 and 2019. METHODS: We did a retrospective multicountry series analysis of national immunisation coverage and case surveillance data from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2019. Our analysis focused on the 15 west African countries that constitute the Economic Community of West African States. We tracked progress in the coverage of measles-containing vaccines (MCVs), measles supplementary immunisation activities, and measles incidence rates. We developed a country-level measles summary scorecard using eight indicators to track progress towards measles elimination as of the end of 2019. The summary indicators were tracked against measles control and elimination milestones. FINDINGS: The weighted average regional first-dose MCV coverage in 2019 was 66% compared with 45% in 2001. 73% (11 of 15) of the west African countries had introduced second-dose MCV as of December, 2019. An estimated 4 588 040 children (aged 12-23 months) did not receive first-dose MCV in 2019, the majority (71%) of whom lived in Nigeria. Based on the scorecard, 12 (80%) countries are off-track to achieving measles elimination milestones; however, Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana have made substantial progress. INTERPRETATION: Measles will continue to be endemic in west Africa after 2020. The regional measles incidence rate in 2019 was 33 times the 2020 elimination target of less than 1 case per million population. However, some hope exists as countries can look at the efforts made by Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana and learn from them. FUNDING: None.

The One Health approach to incident management of the 2019 Lassa fever outbreak response in Nigeria.

Globally, effective emergency response to disease outbreaks is usually affected by weak coordination. However, coordination using an incident management system (IMS) in line with a One Health approach involving human, environment, and animal health with collaborations between government and non-governmental agencies result in improved response outcome for zoonotic diseases such as Lassa fever (LF). We provide an overview of the 2019 LF outbreak response in Nigeria using the IMS and One Health approach. The response was coordinated via ten Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) response pillars. Cardinal response activities included activation of EOC, development of an incident action plan, deployment of One Health rapid response teams to support affected states, mid-outbreak review and after-action review meetings. Between 1st January and 29th December 2019, of the 5057 people tested for LF, 833 were confirmed positive from 23 States, across 86 Local Government Areas. Of the 833 confirmed cases, 650 (78%) were from hotspot States of Edo (36%), Ondo (26%) and Ebonyi (16%). Those in the age-group 21-40 years (47%) were mostly affected, with a male to female ratio of 1:1. Twenty healthcare workers were affected. Two LF naïve states Kebbi and Zamfara, reported confirmed cases for the first time during this period. The outbreak peaked earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the emergency phase of the outbreak was declared over by epidemiological week 17 based on low national threshold composite indicators over a period of six consecutive weeks. Multisectoral and multidisciplinary strategic One Health EOC coordination at all levels facilitated the swift containment of Nigeria's large LF outbreak in 2019. It is therefore imperative to embrace One Health approach embedded within the EOC to holistically address the increasing LF incidence in Nigeria.

Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13. RESULTS: There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%). CONCLUSION: Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Person to person transmission of pneumonia associated with the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): a familial cluster analysis in North Central Nigeria.

The continued absence of viable vaccines, limited diagnostic tools, insufficient protocol for isolation period, and weak health care system in developing countries with Nigeria inclusive heightens the tension trailing the arrival of Novel SARS-CoV-2 that was officially declared a global health emergency by World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020. In this context, this study assesses the adequacy and potency of treatment for pneumonia associated with the Novel SARS-CoV-2. Counting from 27th February 2020, exponential rise in cases of SARS-CoV-2 has been recorded in Nigeria. Despite limited data on person-to-person transmission or nosocomial transmission, we report the epidemiological features of a familial cluster of 4 positive cases to SARS-CoV-2 in Nasarawa State, North Central Nigeria. This cluster presented with an unexplained pneumonia after having contact with a family member who died after manifesting symptoms of Novel SARS-CoV-2; the test came out positive after his demise. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid were performed using nasopharyngeal swabs (Novel Coronavirus PCR Fluorescence Diagnostic Kit, BioGerm Medical Biotechnology at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) in Abuja. Nigeria. From March 10, 2020, we enrolled a family of four patients out of a family of 10 who were positive to novel coronavirus. Four family members (aged 36-43 years) all presented with fever, upper or lower respiratory tract symptoms, or diarrhea, or a combination of these 3-6 days after exposure. These conditions continued to manifest at the Federal Medical Center, Keffi in Nasarawa State, 3-7 days after symptom onset. Their nasopharyngeal or throat swabs of these 10 family members were taken and four returned positive to coronavirus, while six tested negative. The epidemiological evidence from our study on familial cluster analysis reveals possible transmission of Novel SARS-CoV-2 during the incubation period. Study outcomes underscore the importance of probing contact history of potentially infected individuals, for prompt identification to preventing further spread.