The Impact of COVID-19 on Trauma Emergency Patients in Southeastern Iran.

Objective: With the COVID-19 outbreak in countries around the world, the countries' healthcare systems underwent an unprecedented shock. This study aimed to examine the resilience of the medical service delivery system in providing emergency services during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: This study was conducted in a reference hospital in Kerman that provided emergency services to trauma patients. It compared service delivery before and after COVID-19, as well as during the COVID-19 peak and non-peak periods. The compared variables were the number of trauma patients admitted to the hospital and the ICU, the number of patients who died in the hospital due to trauma, and the length of stay in the hospital and the ICU. Results: The pre- and post-COVID-19 comparisons showed no significant difference in the number of daily hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and patient deaths. The median length of stay in the ICU was significantly reduced by almost 2 days during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the length of stay at the hospital was almost the same. Furthermore, a comparison of the COVID-19 peaks and non-peak periods indicated no statistically significant difference in the number of admissions in the ICU, hospital and ICU length of stay, and trauma-induced mortality. Conclusion: Despite the substantial workload imposed by COVID-19 on hospitals, especially during the peak periods of the disease, the provision of medical services to emergency trauma patients did not drop significantly, and the quality of services provided to patients was within the acceptable range.

Comparing the Emergency Care of Iranian and Afghan Patients During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the quality of inpatient care provided to Afghan immigrants in Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2019 to March 2021). For this purpose, the services received by Afghan immigrants were compared with those received by Iranian citizens. METHODS: Two emergency services (traumas with 8080 victims and 8,686 patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 infection) were taken into consideration. The records of all patients, including the Afghan immigrants, in two referral hospitals in Kerman were reviewed, and the main variables were the length of hospitalization (LoH), intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate, and death rate. Quantile regression, multiple logistic regression, and Cox regression were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The median and interquartile range of LoH for Afghan and Iranian nationals admitted due to traumas were 3.0±4.0 and 2.0±4.0, respectively (P<0.01). Moreover, the chance of Afghan nationals being admitted to the ICU (38%, odds ratio=1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.12; 1.69) and the hazard of death (60%, hazard rate=1.60; 95% CI=1.03; 2.49) were higher compared to Iranian nationals, which is statistically significant. However, no significant differences were observed between the COVID-19 patients from the two nationalities in terms of the median LoH, the odds of being admitted to the ICU, and the hazard of death due to COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Afghan nationals admitted to the hospital due to traumas were more likely to be admitted to ICUs or die compared to Iranian citizens. It seems that Afghan patients who had traumas went to the hospitals with more serious injuries. There was no difference between Afghan and Iranian patients in terms of COVID-19 consequences. Following the findings of this study, it seems that justice in treatment has been fully established for Afghan patients in Iran.

Clinical Risk Factors of Need for Intensive Care Unit Admission of COVID-19 Patients; a Cross-sectional Study.

Introduction: It could be beneficial to accelerate the hospitalization of patients with the identified clinical risk factors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, in order to control and reduce COVID-19-related mortality. This study aimed to determine the clinical risk factors associated with ICU hospitalization of COVID-19 patients. Methods: The current research was a cross-sectional study. The study recruited 7182 patients who had positive PCR tests between February 23, 2020, and September 7, 2021 and were admitted to Afzalipour Hospital in Kerman, Iran, for at least 24 hours. Their demographic characteristics, underlying diseases, and clinical parameters were collected. In order to analyze the relationship between the studied variables and ICU admission, multiple logistic regression model, classification tree, and support vector machine were used. Results: It was found that 14.7 percent (1056 patients) of the study participants were admitted to ICU. The patients' average age was 51.25±21 years, and 52.8% of them were male. In the study, some factors such as decreasing oxygen saturation level (OR=0.954, 95%CI: 0.944-0.964), age (OR=1.007, 95%CI: 1.004-1.011), respiratory distress (OR=1.658, 95%CI: 1.410-1.951), reduced level of consciousness (OR=2.487, 95%CI: 1.721-3.596), hypertension (OR=1.249, 95%CI: 1.042-1.496), chronic pulmonary disease (OR=1.250, 95%CI: 1.006-1.554), heart diseases (OR=1.250, 95%CI: 1.009-1.548), chronic kidney disease (OR=1.515, 95%CI: 1.111-2.066), cancer (OR=1.682, 95%CI: 1.130-2.505), seizures (OR=3.428, 95%CI: 1.615-7.274), and gender (OR=1.179, 95%CI: 1.028-1.352) were found to significantly affect ICU admissions. Conclusions: As evidenced by the obtained results, blood oxygen saturation level, the patient's age, and their level of consciousness are crucial for ICU admission.

Prevalence of Domestic Violence against Women and Its Visibility in Southeast Iran.

Background: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of domestic violence against women at Reproductive Age (WARA) and its visibility in southeast of Iran. Methods: Adopting a modified time-location sampling, we recruited 933 WARA in the city of Kerman, Iran from Aug to Dec 2019. Domestic violence (DV) was divided into three main categories: Physical, psychological, and sexual. Data were obtained by direct and Network Scale-Up (NSU) methods through self-administered questionnaires. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) was used to determine the association between socioeconomic variables and the violence experience. Visibility was defined as the ratio of NSU over direct estimates. Results: Using the direct method, the annual prevalence of psychological violence was estimated at 60.9%. Corresponding figures for physical and sexual violence were 34.7% and 37.7%, respectively. NSU estimates were about one-third of the direct estimates. Divorced and widowed, self-employed, and less educated women were more likely to experience DV. Conclusion: While the average DV was as high as 44%, its visibility was as low as 33%. Nearly two-thirds of domestic violence against women remains undisclosed. This indicates a high level of stigma perceived around this type of violence.

Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Control of COVID-19 in Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: During the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions. METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from January 21, 2020 to September 21, 2020. We estimated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Under different scenarios, we assessed the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including physical distancing measures and self-isolation. We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt ), using our mathematical model and epidemiologic data. RESULTS: If no NPIs were applied, there could have been a cumulative number of 51 800 000 (95% UI: 1 910 000- 77 600 000) COVID-19 infections and 266 000 (95% UI: 119 000-476 000) deaths by September 21, 2020. If physical distancing interventions, such as school/border closures and self-isolation interventions had been introduced a week earlier than they were actually launched, 30.8% and 35.2% reduction in the number of deaths and infections respectively could have been achieved by September 21, 2020. The observed daily number of deaths showed that the Rt was one or more than one almost every day during the analysis period. CONCLUSION: Our models suggest that the NPIs implemented in Iran between January 21, 2020 and September 21, 2020 had significant effects on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study also showed that the timely implementation of NPIs showed a profound effect on further reductions in the numbers of infections and deaths. This highlights the importance of forecasting and early detection of future waves of infection and of the need for effective preparedness and response capabilities.

Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The actual number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be higher than the reported deaths. We aimed to estimate the number of deaths in Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic from December 22, 2019 to March 20, 2022. METHODS: We compared the number of age- and sex-specific deaths reported by Iran's Bureau of Vital Statistics with the predicted deaths estimated using an improved Lee-Carter model. We estimated the number of all-cause excess deaths in three scenarios, including the baseline scenario (without any undercounting of deaths) and 4% and 8% undercounting of all-cause deaths. RESULTS: We estimated 282,378 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 225,439; 341,951) excess deaths in the baseline model. This number was 303,148 (95% CI: 246,417; 357,823) and 308,486 (95% CI: 250,607; 364,417) in the 4% and 8% scenarios, respectively. During the same period, Iran reported 139,610 deaths as being directly related to COVID-19. The ratio of reported COVID-19 deaths to total excess deaths ranged from 45.2% to 49.4% in the various scenarios. Most excess deaths occurred in the baseline scenario in males (157,552 [95% CI: 125,142; 191,265]) and those aged ≥75 years (102,369 [95% CI: 93,894; 111,188]). CONCLUSIONS: The reported number of COVID-19 deaths was less than half of Iran's estimated number of excess deaths. The results of this study will be helpful for health policymakers' planning, and call for strengthening the timeliness and accuracy of Iran's death registration systems, planning for more accurate monitoring of epidemics, and planning to provide support services for survivors' families.

Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran.

Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in order to determine the most appropriate animal birth control approach. We performed population size estimate of dogs using sight-resight surveys by photography in a randomly selected 25 blocks of the city and all the suburbs of greater Kerman area. Main demographic features were characterized and the dog density distribution was mapped. A dynamic model was developed to predict free-roaming dog population variations after 5 and 10 years. Different scenarios based on 10, 30, 50, 60 and 70% female dog sterilization were considered to predict the effects of animal birth control measures. Free roaming dog population was estimated at 6781 dogs (65.3% males) in Kerman and suburbs with several major population hotspots. Analysis of the dog locations within the city showed that the largest proportion of the dogs were observed in the vacant lots (46.2%). Modeling predictions indicated that, in the absence of management, the free-roaming dog population could increase from a baseline of 6781 to 13,665 dogs (2.02 fold increase) in 5 years and to 19,376 dogs in 10 years (2.86 fold increase). Using a population dynamics model, we simulated five neutering coverages to explore the impact of female neutering on free-roaming dog population size. The 5-year projections of the model have shown that 50% annual female dog sterilization significantly reduced free-roaming dog population by 0.44 comparing to the baseline population. Findings of the present study improve our knowledge on the nature and extent of dog population dynamics in Iran. Effective population control and selection of the most appropriate neutering interventions require a comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and dynamics of FRD population.

Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. METHODS: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800). CONCLUSION: With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.

The Prevalence and 5-Year Incidence Rate of Low Physical Activity in an Urban Population of 10,000 in Southeastern Iran: Relationship With Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

BACKGROUND: Because of high prevalence of coronary artery diseases (CADs) in Iran and their relationship with low physical activity (LPA), this study aimed to measure the epidemic size of LPA, its incidence rate, and its relationship with other CAD risk factors in Kerman, Iran. METHODS: About 10,000 adults were randomly recruited through single-stage cluster sampling. Demographic characteristics, biochemical variables, smoking, opium use, mental status, and physical activities were assessed. The relationship between LPA and 7 other CAD risk factors was measured. Five-year incidence rate of LPA was calculated according to the data from the physically active participants in the first phase of the study (n = 3416) who attended the second phase after 5 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of low, moderate, and intense physical activity was 47.2%, 34.8%, and 18.0%, respectively. LPA rose from 45.1% to 62.2% after the age of 25 years. Women had higher LPA than men. Participants with LPA had significantly higher chance of cigarette smoking, diabetes, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and opium addiction. Five-year incidence rate of LPA was 5.1 persons/100 person-years among physically active population. CONCLUSION: Almost half of the studied population suffering from LPA was at risk of CAD. Such risky lifestyle pattern while worsened in the last 5 years makes the emerging of CAD epidemic unavoidable, if appropriate timely interventions not being in place accordingly.

Twelve-hour before Driving Prevalence of Alcohol and Drug Use among Heavy Vehicle Drivers in South East of Iran Using Network Scale Up.

BACKGROUND: Heavy vehicle drivers spend a great deal of time away from their families. This issue and other difficulties around their job may increase risky behaviors among them. The current study aims to investigate the prevalence of opium drugs, stimulants, cannabis, and alcohol use 12 hours before driving among heavy vehicle drivers. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we selected two sites that were in charge of medical examination of drivers and recruited 363 drivers of heavy vehicles (trucks, trailers, and buses). We asked drivers about total number of drivers they knew and number of drivers who experienced use of different types of drugs. The data were analyzed using Network Scale Up Method (NSUM). FINDINGS: Mean of age and job experience was 43.28 ± 10.04 years and 16.07 ± 9.67 years, respectively. The highest and lowest prevalence of drug use related to opium-based drugs at 12.8% to 14.0% and simulants at 1.97% to 2.84%, respectively. The prevalence of alcohol use 12 hours before driving was 4%. CONCLUSION: 12-hour before driving prevalence of opium-based drugs among drivers was high. This might put them in higher risk of road accidents. There is a need to design appropriate educational programs for them.

A review of methods to estimate the visibility factor for bias correction in network scale-up studies.

Network scale-up is an indirect size estimation method, in which participants are questioned on sensitive behaviors of their social network members. Therefore, the visibility of the behavior affects the replies and estimates. Many attempts to estimate visibility have been made. The aims of this study were to review the main methods used to address visibility and to provide a summary of reported visibility factors (VFs) across populations. We systematically searched relevant databases and Google. In total, 15 studies and reports that calculated VFs were found. VF calculation studies have been applied in 9 countries, mostly in East Asia and Eastern Europe. The methods applied were expert opinion, comparison of NSU with another method, the game of contacts, social respect, and the coming-out rate. The VF has been calculated for heavy drug users, people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients, male who have sex with male (MSM), alcohol and methamphetamine users, and those who have experienced extra-/pre-marital sex and abortion. The VF varied from 1.4% in Japan to 52.0% in China for MSM; from 34.0% in Ukraine to 111.0% in China for FSWs; and from 12.0% among Iranian students to 57.0% in Ukraine for PWID. Our review revealed that VF estimates were heterogeneous, and were not available for most settings, in particular the Middle East and North Africa region, except Iran. More concrete methodologies to estimate the VF are required.