Network Analysis of Postoperative Surgical Complications in a Cohort of Children Reported to the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program: Pediatric.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the temporal relationships of postoperative complications in children and determine if they are related to each other in a predictable manner. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Children with multiple postoperative complications have increased suffering and higher risk for mortality. Rigorous analysis of the temporal relations between complications, how complications might cluster, and the implications of such clusters for children have not been published. Herein, we analyze the relationships between postoperative complications in children. METHODS: Data source: Surgical operations included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatric Participant Use Data File from 2013 to 2017. The main outcomes measure was presence of 1 or more postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery. Operations followed by multiple complications were analyzed using network analysis to study prevalence, timing, and co-occurrences of clusters of complications. RESULTS: This study cohort consisted of 432,090 operations; 388,738 (89.97%) had no postoperative complications identified, 36,105 (8.35%) operations resulted in 1 postoperative complication and 7247 (1.68%) operations resulted in 2 or more complications. Patients with multiple complications were more likely to be younger, male, African American, with a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and to undergo nonelective operations (P < 0.001). More patients died with 2 complication versus 1 complication vs no complication (5.3% vs 1.5% vs 0.14%, P < 0.001). Network analysis identified 4 Louvain clusters of complications with dense intracluster relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Children with multiple postoperative complications are at higher risk of death, than patients with no complication, or a single complication. Multiple complications are grouped into defined clusters and are not independent.

The quest for cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in patients with nondialysis chronic kidney disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, traditional CVD risk prediction equations do not work well in patients with CKD, and inclusion of kidney disease metrics such as albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate have a modest to no benefit in improving prediction. RECENT FINDINGS: As CKD progresses, the strength of traditional CVD risk factors in predicting clinical outcomes weakens. A pooled cohort equation used for CVD risk prediction is a useful tool for guiding clinicians on management of patients with CVD risk, but these equations do not calibrate well in patients with CKD, although a number of studies have developed modifications of the traditional equations to improve risk prediction. The reason for the poor calibration may be related to the fact that as CKD progresses, associations of traditional risk factors such as BMI, lipids and blood pressure with CVD outcomes are attenuated or reverse, and other risk factors may become more important. SUMMARY: Large national cohorts such as the US Veteran cohort with many patients with evolving CKD may be useful resources for the developing CVD prediction models; however, additional considerations are needed for the unique composition of patients receiving care in these healthcare systems, including those with multiple comorbidities, as well as mental health issues, homelessness, posttraumatic stress disorders, frailty, malnutrition and polypharmacy. Machine learning over conventional risk prediction models may be better suited to handle the complexity needed for these CVD prediction models.

Association of Dyskalemias with Ischemic Stroke in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Transitioning to Dialysis.

INTRODUCTION: Hypo- and hyperkalemia are associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke. However, this association has not been examined in an advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. METHODS: From among 102,477 US veterans transitioning to dialysis between 2007 and 2015, 21,357 patients with 2 pre-dialysis outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rates <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 90-365 days apart and at least 1 potassium (K) each in the baseline and follow-up period were identified. We separately examined the association of both baseline time-averaged K (chronic exposure) and time-updated K (acute exposure) treated as categorized (hypokalemia [K <3.5 mEq/L] and hyperkalemia [K >5.5 mEq/L] vs. referent [3.5-5.5 mEq/L]) and continuous exposure with time to the first ischemic stroke event prior to dialysis initiation using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: A total of 2,638 (12.4%) ischemic stroke events (crude event rate 41.9 per 1,000 patient years; 95% confidence interval [CI] 40.4-43.6) over a median (Q1-Q3) follow-up time of 2.56 (1.59-3.89) years were observed. The baseline time-averaged K category of hypokalemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95% CI: 1.35, 1.01-1.81) was marginally associated with a significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke. However, time-updated hyperkalemia was associated with a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke (aHR, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.68-0.98). The exposure-outcome relationship remained consistent when using continuous K levels for both the exposures. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: In patients with advanced CKD, hypokalemia (chronic exposure) was associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke, whereas hyperkalemia (acute exposure) was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. Further studies in this population are needed to explore the mechanisms underlying these associations.

Fungi form interkingdom microbial communities in the primordial human gut that develop with gestational age.

Fungal and bacterial commensal organisms play a complex role in the health of the human host. Expansion of commensal ecology after birth is a critical period in human immune development. However, the initial fungal colonization of the primordial gut remains undescribed. To investigate primordial fungal ecology, we performed amplicon sequencing and culture-based techniques of first-pass meconium, which forms in the intestine prior to birth, from a prospective observational cohort of term and preterm newborns. Here, we describe fungal ecologies in the primordial gut that develop complexity with advancing gestational age at birth. Our findings suggest homeostasis of fungal commensals may represent an important aspect of human biology present even before birth. Unlike bacterial communities that gradually develop complexity, the domination of the fungal communities of some preterm infants by Saccromycetes, specifically Candida, may suggest a pathologic association with preterm birth.-Willis, K. A., Purvis, J. H., Myers, E. D., Aziz, M. M., Karabayir, I., Gomes, C. K., Peters, B. M., Akbilgic, O., Talati, A. J., Pierre, J. F. Fungi form interkingdom microbial communities in the primordial human gut that develop with gestational age.

Gradient boosting for Parkinson's disease diagnosis from voice recordings.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a clinically diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder that affects both motor and non-motor neural circuits. Speech deterioration (hypokinetic dysarthria) is a common symptom, which often presents early in the disease course. Machine learning can help movement disorders specialists improve their diagnostic accuracy using non-invasive and inexpensive voice recordings. METHOD: We used "Parkinson Dataset with Replicated Acoustic Features Data Set" from the UCI-Machine Learning repository. The dataset included 44 speech-test based acoustic features from patients with PD and controls. We analyzed the data using various machine learning algorithms including Light and Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, K-nearest neighborhood, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Regression, as well as logistic regression. We also implemented a variable importance analysis to identify important variables classifying patients with PD. RESULTS: The cohort included a total of 80 subjects: 40 patients with PD (55% men) and 40 controls (67.5% men). Disease duration was 5 years or less for all subjects, with a mean Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) score of 19.6 (SD 8.1), and none were taking PD medication. The mean age for PD subjects and controls was 69.6 (SD 7.8) and 66.4 (SD 8.4), respectively. Our best-performing model used Light Gradient Boosting to provide an AUC of 0.951 with 95% confidence interval 0.946-0.955 in 4-fold cross validation using only seven acoustic features. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can accurately detect Parkinson's disease using an inexpensive and non-invasive voice recording. Light Gradient Boosting outperformed other machine learning algorithms. Such approaches could be used to inexpensively screen large patient populations for Parkinson's disease.

The Promise of Machine Learning: When Will it be Delivered?

BACKGROUND: The real-life applications of machine learning clinical decision making is currently lagging behind its promise. One of the critics on machine learning is that it doesn't outperform more traditional statistical approaches in every problem. METHODS AND RESULTS: Authors of "Predictive Abilities of Machine Learning Techniques May Be Limited by Dataset Characteristics: Insights From the UNOS Database" presented in the current issue of the Journal of Cardiac Failure that machine learning approaches do not provide significantly higher performance when compared to more traditional statistical approaches in predicting mortality following heart transplant. In this brief report, we provide an insight on the possible reasons for why machine learning methods do not outperform more traditional approaches for every problem and every dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the performance-focused critics on machine learning are because the bar is set unfairly too high for machine learning. In most cases, machine learning methods provides at least as good results as traditional statistical methods do. It is normal for machine learning models to provide similar performance with linear models if the actual underlying input-outcome relationship is linear. Moreover, machine learning methods outperforms linear statistical models when the underlying input-output relationship is not linear and if the dataset is large enough and include predictors capturing that nonlinear relationship.

Vancomycin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in a Large Veteran Population.

BACKGROUND: To determine the association of vancomycin with acute kidney injury (AKI) in relation to its serum concentration value and to examine the risk of AKI in patients treated with vancomycin when compared with a matched cohort of patients receiving non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin). METHODS: From a cohort of > 3 million US veterans with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2, we identified 33,527 patients who received either intravenous vancomycin (n = 22,057) or non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin, n = 11,470). We examined the association of the serum trough vancomycin level recorded within the first 48 h of administration with subsequent AKI in all patients treated with vancomycin and association of vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics use with the risk of incident AKI. RESULTS: The overall multivariable adjusted ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptides were 1.1 (1.1-1.2), 1.2 (1-1.4), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7), respectively. When examined in strata divided by vancomycin trough level, the odds of AKI were similar or lower in patients receiving vancomycin compared to non-glycopeptide antibiotics as long as serum vancomycin levels were ≤20 mg/L. However, in patients with serum vancomycin levels > 20 mg/L, the ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics were 1.5 (1.4-1.7), 1.9 (1.5-2.3), and 2.7 (2-3.5), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vancomycin use is associated with a higher risk of AKI when serum levels exceed > 20 mg/L.

Acute kidney injury following coronary revascularization procedures in patients with advanced CKD.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported that compared with percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs), coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with a reduced risk of mortality and repeat revascularization in patients with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Information about outcomes associated with CABG versus PCI in patients with advanced stages of CKD is limited. We evaluated the incidence and relative risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) associated with CABG versus PCI in patients with advanced CKD. METHODS: We examined 730 US veterans with incident ESRD who underwent a first CABG or PCI up to 5 years prior to dialysis initiation. The association of CABG versus PCI with AKI was examined in multivariable adjusted logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 466 patients underwent CABG and 264 patients underwent PCI. The mean age was 64 ± 8 years, 99% were male, 20% were African American and 84% were diabetic. The incidence of AKI in the CABG versus PCI group was 67% versus 31%, respectively (P < 0.001). The incidence of all stages of AKI were higher after CABG compared with PCI. CABG was associated with a 4.5-fold higher crude risk of AKI {odds ratio [OR] 4.53 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.28-6.27]; P < 0.001}, which remained significant after multivariable adjustments [OR 3.50 (95% CI 2.03-6.02); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: CABG was associated with a 4.5-fold higher risk of AKI compared with PCI in patients with advanced CKD. Despite other benefits of CABG over PCI, the extremely high risk of AKI associated with CABG should be considered in this vulnerable population when deciding on the optimal revascularization strategy.

Applying Artificial Intelligence to Identify Physiomarkers Predicting Severe Sepsis in the PICU.

OBJECTIVES: We used artificial intelligence to develop a novel algorithm using physiomarkers to predict the onset of severe sepsis in critically ill children. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: PICU. PATIENTS: Children age between 6 and 18 years old. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Continuous minute-by-minute physiologic data were available for a total of 493 critically ill children admitted to a tertiary care PICU over an 8-month period, 20 of whom developed severe sepsis. Using an alert time stamp generated by an electronic screening algorithm as a reference point, we studied up to 24 prior hours of continuous physiologic data. We identified physiomarkers, including SD of heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and symbolic transitions probabilities of those variables that discriminated severe sepsis patients from controls (all other patients admitted to the PICU who did not meet severe sepsis criteria). We used logistic regression, random forests, and deep Convolutional Neural Network methods to derive our models. Analysis was performed using data generated in two windows prior to the firing of the electronic screening algorithm, namely, 2-8 and 8-24 hours. When analyzing the physiomarkers present in the 2-8 hours analysis window, logistic regression performed with specificity of 87.4% and sensitivity of 55.0%, random forest performed with 79.6% specificity and 80.0% sensitivity, and the Convolutional Neural Network performed with 83.0% specificity and 75.0% sensitivity. When analyzing physiomarkers from the 8-24 hours window, logistic regression resulted in 77.1% specificity and 39.3% sensitivity, random forest performed with 82.3% specificity and 61.1% sensitivity, whereas the Convolutional Neural Network method achieved 81% specificity and 76% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence can be used to predict the onset of severe sepsis using physiomarkers in critically ill children. Further, it may detect severe sepsis as early as 8 hours prior to a real-time electronic severe sepsis screening algorithm.

Pretreatment identification of 90-day readmission among heart failure patients receiving aquapheresis treatment.

BACKGROUND: The use of traditional models to predict heart failure (HF) has limitations in preventing HF hospitalizations. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in cardiovascular medicine only have limited data published regarding HF populations, with none assessing the favorability of decongestive therapy aquapheresis (AQ). AI and ML can be leveraged to design non-traditional models to identify those who are at high risk of HF readmissions. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a model for pretreatment identification of risk for 90-day HF events among HF patients who have undergone AQ. METHODS: Using data from the AVOID-HF (Aquapheresis versus Intravenous Diuretics and Hospitalization for Heart Failure) trial, we designed a ML-based predictive model that can be used before initiating AQ to anticipate who will respond well to AQ and who will be at high risk of future HF events. RESULTS: Using ML we identified the top ten predictors for 90-day HF events. Interestingly, the variable for 'intimate relationships with loved ones' strongly predicted response to therapy. This ML-model was more successful in predicting the outcome in HF patients who were treated with AQ. In the original AVOID-HF trial, the overall 90-day HF event rate in the AQ arm was 32%. Our proposed predictive model was accurate in anticipating 90-day HF events with better statistical accuracy (area under curve 0.88, sensitivity 80%, specificity 75%, negative predictive value 90%, and positive predictive value 57%). CONCLUSIONS: ML can help identify HF patients who will respond to AQ therapy. Our model can identify super-respondents to AQ therapy and predict 90-day HF events better than currently existing traditional models. CONDENSED ABSTRACT: Utilizing data from the AVOID-HF trial, we designed a ML-predictive model that can be used before initiating AQ to anticipate who will respond well to AQ and who will be at high risk of future HF events. Using ML, we identified the top 10 predictors for 90-day HF events. Our model can identify super-respondents to ultrafiltration therapy and predict 90-day HF events better than currently existing traditional models.

AI-based preeclampsia detection and prediction with electrocardiogram data.

Introduction: More than 76,000 women die yearly from preeclampsia and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Early diagnosis and management of preeclampsia can improve outcomes for both mother and baby. In this study, we developed artificial intelligence models to detect and predict preeclampsia from electrocardiograms (ECGs) in point-of-care settings. Methods: Ten-second 12-lead ECG data was obtained from two large health care settings: University of Tennessee Health Science Center (UTHSC) and Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist (AHWFB). UTHSC data was split into 80% training and 20% holdout data. The model used a modified ResNet convolutional neural network, taking one-dimensional raw ECG signals comprising 12 channels as an input, to predict risk of preeclampsia. Sub-analyses were performed to assess the predictive accuracy for preeclampsia prediction within 30, 60, or 90 days before diagnosis. Results: The UTHSC cohort included 904 ECGs from 759 females (78.8% African American) with a mean ± sd age of 27.3 ± 5.0 years. The AHWFB cohort included 817 ECGs from 141 females (45.4 African American) with a mean ± sd age of 27.4 ± 5.9 years. The cross-validated ECG-AI model yielded an AUC (95% CI) of 0.85 (0.77-0.93) on UTHSC holdout data, and an AUC (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.77-0.84) on AHWFB data. The sub-analysis of different time windows before preeclampsia prediction resulted in AUCs (95% CI) of 0.92 (0.84-1.00), 0.89 (0.81-0.98) and 0.90 (0.81-0.98) when tested on ECGs 30 days, 60 days and 90 days, respectively, before diagnosis. When assessed on early onset preeclampsia (preeclampsia diagnosed at <34 weeks of pregnancy), the model's AUC (95% CI) was 0.98 (0.89-1.00). Discussion: We conclude that preeclampsia can be identified with high accuracy via application of AI models to ECG data.

Development and validation of an electrocardiographic artificial intelligence model for detection of peripartum cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: This study used electrocardiogram data in conjunction with artificial intelligence methods as a noninvasive tool for detecting peripartum cardiomyopathy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the efficacy of an artificial intelligence-based heart failure detection model for peripartum cardiomyopathy detection. STUDY DESIGN: We first built a deep-learning model for heart failure detection using retrospective data at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center. Cases were adult and nonpregnant female patients with a heart failure diagnosis; controls were adult nonpregnant female patients without heart failure. The model was then tested on an independent cohort of pregnant women at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center with or without peripartum cardiomyopathy. We also tested the model in an external cohort of pregnant women at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist. Key outcomes were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also repeated our analysis using only lead I electrocardiogram as an input to assess the feasibility of remote monitoring via wearables that can capture single-lead electrocardiogram data. RESULTS: The University of Tennessee Health Science Center heart failure cohort comprised 346,339 electrocardiograms from 142,601 patients. In this cohort, 60% of participants were Black and 37% were White, with an average age (standard deviation) of 53 (19) years. The heart failure detection model achieved an area under the curve of 0.92 on the holdout set. We then tested the ability of the heart failure model to detect peripartum cardiomyopathy in an independent University of Tennessee Health Science Center cohort of pregnant women and an external Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist cohort of pregnant women. The independent University of Tennessee Health Science Center cohort included 158 electrocardiograms from 115 patients; our deep-learning model achieved an area under the curve of 0.83 (0.77-0.89) for this data set. The external Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist cohort involved 80 electrocardiograms from 43 patients; our deep-learning model achieved an area under the curve of 0.94 (0.91-0.98) for this data set. For identifying peripartum cardiomyopathy diagnosed ≥10 days after delivery, the model achieved an area under the curve of 0.88 (0.81-0.94) for the University of Tennessee Health Science Center cohort and of 0.96 (0.93-0.99) for the Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist cohort. When we repeated our analysis by building a heart failure detection model using only lead-I electrocardiograms, we obtained similarly high detection accuracies, with areas under the curve of 0.73 and 0.93 for the University of Tennessee Health Science Center and Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: Artificial intelligence can accurately detect peripartum cardiomyopathy from electrocardiograms alone. A simple electrocardiographic artificial intelligence-based peripartum screening could result in a timelier diagnosis. Given that results with 1-lead electrocardiogram data were similar to those obtained using all 12 leads, future studies will focus on remote screening for peripartum cardiomyopathy using smartwatches that can capture single-lead electrocardiogram data.

Outcomes of Ultrafiltration in community-based hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine outcomes of ultrafiltration in real world community-based hospital settings. BACKGROUND: Ultrafiltration (UF) is an accepted therapeutic option for advanced decompensated heart failure (ADHF). the feasibility of UF in a community hospital setting, by general cardiologists in a start-up program had not been objectively evaluated. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the first-year cohort of ADHF patients treated with UF from 10/1/2019 to 10/1/2020, which totaled 30 patients, utilizing the CHF Solutions Aquadex FlexFlow™ System with active UF rate titration. RESULTS: Baseline patient characteristics were similar to RCTs: mean age 63, 73 % male; 27 % female; 53 % Caucasian; 47 % African American; 77 % had LVEF ≤ 40. The baseline mean serum creatinine (Cr) was 1.84 ±0.62 mg/dL, mean GFR of 36.95 ±9.60 ml/min. HF re-admission rates were not significantly different than prior studies (17.2 % at 30 d, 23.3 % at 60 d, but in our cohort, per patient HF re-admission rates were reduced significantly by 60 d (0.30 p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: Our analysis showed success with UF in mainstream setting with reproducible results of significant volume loss without adverse renal effect, mitigation of recurrent Hdmissions, and remarkable subjective clinical benefit.

Feasibility of remote monitoring for fatal coronary heart disease using Apple Watch ECGs.

Background: Fatal coronary heart disease (FCHD) is often described as sudden cardiac death (affects >4 million people/year), where coronary artery disease is the only identified condition. Electrocardiographic artificial intelligence (ECG-AI) models for FCHD risk prediction using ECG data from wearable devices could enable wider screening/monitoring efforts. Objectives: To develop a single-lead ECG-based deep learning model for FCHD risk prediction and assess concordance between clinical and Apple Watch ECGs. Methods: An FCHD single-lead ("lead I" from 12-lead ECGs) ECG-AI model was developed using 167,662 ECGs (50,132 patients) from the University of Tennessee Health Sciences Center. Eighty percent of the data (5-fold cross-validation) was used for training and 20% as a holdout. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) models incorporating ECG-AI predictions with age, sex, and race were also developed. The models were tested on paired clinical single-lead and Apple Watch ECGs from 243 St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study participants. The correlation and concordance of the predictions were assessed using Pearson correlation (R), Spearman correlation (ρ), and Cohen's kappa. Results: The ECG-AI and CPH models resulted in AUC = 0.76 and 0.79, respectively, on the 20% holdout and AUC = 0.85 and 0.87 on the Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist external validation data. There was moderate-strong positive correlation between predictions (R = 0.74, ρ = 0.67, and κ = 0.58) when tested on the 243 paired ECGs. The clinical (lead I) and Apple Watch predictions led to the same low/high-risk FCHD classification for 99% of the participants. CPH prediction correlation resulted in an R = 0.81, ρ = 0.76, and κ = 0.78. Conclusion: Risk of FCHD can be predicted from single-lead ECGs obtained from wearable devices and are statistically concordant with lead I of a 12-lead ECG.

Incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of acute myocardial infarction in Kazakhstan: data from unified national electronic healthcare system 2014-2019.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases contribute to premature mortality globally, resulting in substantial social and economic burdens. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study reported that in 2019 alone, heart attack and strokes accounted for the deaths of 18.6 million individuals. Ischemic heart diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), accounted for 182 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and it is leading cause of death worldwide. Aim: The aim of this study is to present the burden of AMI in Kazakhstan and describe the outcome of hospitalized patients. Methods: The data of 79,172 people admitted to hospital with ICD-10 diagnosis I21 between 2014 and 2019 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System and retrospectively analyzed. Results: The majority of the cohort (53,285, 67%) were men, with an average age of 63 (±12) years, predominantly of Kazakh (38,057, 48%) and Russian (24,583, 31%) ethnicities. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (61,972, 78%). In males, a sharp increase in incidence is present after 40 years, while for females, the morbidity increases gradually after 55. Throughout the observation period, all-cause mortality rose from 101 to 210 people per million population (PMP). In 2019, AMI account for 169,862 DALYs in Kazakhstan, with a significant proportion (79%) attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLDs). Approximately half of disease burden due to AMI (80,794 DALYs) was in age group 55-69 years. Although incidence is higher for men, they have better survival rates than women. In terms of revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting yielded higher survival rates compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (86.3% and 80.9% respectively) during the 5-year follow-up. Conclusion: This research evaluated the burden and disability-adjusted life years of AMI in Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian country. The results show that more effective disease management systems and preventive measures at earlier ages are needed.

Externally validated deep learning model to identify prodromal Parkinson's disease from electrocardiogram.

Little is known about electrocardiogram (ECG) markers of Parkinson's disease (PD) during the prodromal stage. The aim of the study was to build a generalizable ECG-based fully automatic artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict PD risk during the prodromal stage, up to 5 years before disease diagnosis. This case-control study included samples from Loyola University Chicago (LUC) and University of Tennessee-Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare (MLH). Cases and controls were matched according to specific characteristics (date, age, sex and race). Clinical data were available from May, 2014 onward at LUC and from January, 2015 onward at MLH, while the ECG data were available as early as 1990 in both institutes. PD was denoted by at least two primary diagnostic codes (ICD9 332.0; ICD10 G20) at least 30 days apart. PD incidence date was defined as the earliest of first PD diagnostic code or PD-related medication prescription. ECGs obtained at least 6 months before PD incidence date were modeled to predict a subsequent diagnosis of PD within three time windows: 6 months-1 year, 6 months-3 years, and 6 months-5 years. We applied a novel deep neural network using standard 10-s 12-lead ECGs to predict PD risk at the prodromal phase. This model was compared to multiple feature engineering-based models. Subgroup analyses for sex, race and age were also performed. Our primary prediction model was a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN) that was built using 131 cases and 1058 controls from MLH, and externally validated on 29 cases and 165 controls from LUC. The model was trained on 90% of the MLH data, internally validated on the remaining 10% and externally validated on LUC data. The best performing model resulted in an external validation AUC of 0.67 when predicting future PD at any time between 6 months and 5 years after the ECG. Accuracy increased when restricted to ECGs obtained within 6 months to 3 years before PD diagnosis (AUC 0.69) and was highest when predicting future PD within 6 months to 1 year (AUC 0.74). The 1D-CNN model based on raw ECG data outperformed multiple models built using more standard ECG feature engineering approaches. These results demonstrate that a predictive model developed in one cohort using only raw 10-s ECGs can effectively classify individuals with prodromal PD in an independent cohort, particularly closer to disease diagnosis. Standard ECGs may help identify individuals with prodromal PD for cost-effective population-level early detection and inclusion in disease-modifying therapeutic trials.

A generalizable electrocardiogram-based artificial intelligence model for 10-year heart failure risk prediction.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a progressive condition with high global incidence. HF has two main subtypes: HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). There is an inherent need for simple yet effective electrocardiogram (ECG)-based artificial intelligence (AI; ECG-AI) models that can predict HF risk early to allow for risk modification. Objective: The main objectives were to validate HF risk prediction models using Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) data and assess performance on HFpEF and HFrEF classification. Methods: There were six models in comparision derived using ARIC data. 1) The ECG-AI model predicting HF risk was developed using raw 12-lead ECGs with a convolutional neural network. The clinical models from 2) ARIC (ARIC-HF) and 3) Framingham Heart Study (FHS-HF) used 9 and 8 variables, respectively. 4) Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model developed using the clinical risk factors in ARIC-HF or FHS-HF. 5) CPH model using the outcome of ECG-AI and the clinical risk factors used in CPH model (ECG-AI-Cox) and 6) A Light Gradient Boosting Machine model using 288 ECG Characteristics (ECG-Chars). All the models were validated on MESA. The performances of these models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared using the DeLong test. Results: ECG-AI, ECG-Chars, and ECG-AI-Cox resulted in validation AUCs of 0.77, 0.73, and 0.84, respectively. ARIC-HF and FHS-HF yielded AUCs of 0.76 and 0.74, respectively, and CPH resulted in AUC = 0.78. ECG-AI-Cox outperformed all other models. ECG-AI-Cox provided an AUC of 0.85 for HFrEF and 0.83 for HFpEF. Conclusion: ECG-AI using ECGs provides better-validated predictions when compared to HF risk calculators, and the ECG feature model and also works well with HFpEF and HFrEF classification.

The fungal intestinal microbiota predict the development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very low birthweight newborns.

RATIONALE: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the most common morbidity affecting very preterm infants. Gut fungal and bacterial microbial communities contribute to multiple lung diseases and may influence BPD pathogenesis. METHODS: We performed a prospective, observational cohort study comparing the multikingdom fecal microbiota of 144 preterm infants with or without moderate to severe BPD by sequencing the bacterial 16S and fungal ITS2 ribosomal RNA gene. To address the potential causative relationship between gut dysbiosis and BPD, we used fecal microbiota transplant in an antibiotic-pseudohumanized mouse model. Comparisons were made using RNA sequencing, confocal microscopy, lung morphometry, and oscillometry. RESULTS: We analyzed 102 fecal microbiome samples collected during the second week of life. Infants who later developed BPD showed an obvious fungal dysbiosis as compared to infants without BPD (NoBPD, p = 0.0398, permutational multivariate ANOVA). Instead of fungal communities dominated by Candida and Saccharomyces, the microbiota of infants who developed BPD were characterized by a greater diversity of rarer fungi in less interconnected community architectures. On successful colonization, the gut microbiota from infants with BPD augmented lung injury in the offspring of recipient animals. We identified alterations in the murine intestinal microbiome and transcriptome associated with augmented lung injury. CONCLUSIONS: The gut fungal microbiome of infants who will develop BPD is dysbiotic and may contribute to disease pathogenesis.

Trends in cardiology and oncology artificial intelligence publications.

Study objective: To determine whether there has been growth in publications on the use of artificial intelligence in cardiology and oncology, we assessed historical trends in publications related to artificial intelligence applications in cardiology and oncology, which are the two fields studying the leading causes of death worldwide. Upward trends in publications may indicate increasing interest in the use of artificial intelligence in these crucial fields. Design/setting: To evaluate evidence of increasing publications on the use of artificial intelligence in cardiology and oncology, historical trends in related publications on PubMed (the biomedical repository most frequently used by clinicians and scientists in these fields) were reviewed. Results: Findings indicated that research output related to artificial intelligence (and its subcategories) generally increased over time, particularly in the last five years. With some initial degree of vacillation in publication trends, a slight qualitative inflection was noted in approximately 2015, in general publications and especially for oncology and cardiology, with subsequent consistent exponential growth. Publications predominantly focused on "machine learning" (n = 20,301), which contributed to the majority of the accelerated growth in the field, compared to "artificial intelligence" (n = 4535), "natural language processing" (n = 2608), and "deep learning" (n = 4459). Conclusion: Trends in the general biomedical literature and particularly in cardiology and oncology indicated exponential growth over time. Further exponential growth is expected in future years, as awareness and cross-disciplinary collaboration and education increase. Publications specifically on machine learning will likely continue to lead the way.