QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied. METHODS: We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool. RESULTS: 13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted). CONCLUSION: People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

The increasing burden of asthma acute care in Singapore: an update on 15-year population-level evidence.

BACKGROUND: In Singapore, there is currently scarce population-based research informing the recent trends of asthma-related healthcare burdens. In this study, we investigated the past 25-year trends of asthma-related hospitalisations, emergency department (ED) visits and deaths in Singapore and projected the future burdens from 2023 to 2040. METHODS: We acquired annually-measured data from the Singapore Ministry of Health Clinical and National Disease Registry, containing 25-year asthma-related hospitalisation and death rates as well as 15-year ED visit rates. We conducted change-point analysis and generalised linear modelling to identify time intervals with stable trends and estimate asthma-related healthcare utilisation and mortality rates. To project future asthma-related burdens, we developed a probabilistic model which combined projections of future population size with the estimated rate outcomes from the last stable period. RESULTS: Our results show that the asthma hospitalisation rate in Singapore had remained at approximately 80 episodes per 100,000 from 2003 to 2019 and are likely to grow by 1.7% each year (95% CI: 0.7, 5.0%), leading to a total of 163,633 episodes from 2023 to 2040 which corresponds to an estimated $103,075,820 based on 2022 USD. Besides, Singapore's asthma-related ED visit rate was 390 per 100,000 in 2019 and is expected to decline by 3.4% each year (95% CI: - 5.8, 0.0%), leading to a total of 208,145 episodes from 2023 to 2040 which corresponds to USD$15,053,795. In contrast, the 2019 asthma-related mortality rate in Singapore was approximately 0.57 per 100,000 and is likely to stay stably low (change per year: -1.3, 95% CI: - 11.0, 4.3%). Between 2023 and 2040, Singapore's estimated total number of asthma-related deaths is 638 episodes. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, the burden of asthma acute care in Singapore is high; Singapore's asthma-related hospitalisation and ED visit rates are relatively higher than those of other developed economies, and its asthma admission rate is expected to increase significantly over time, possibly indicating excess resource use for asthma. The established national asthma programme in Singapore, together with recent efforts in reinforcing primary care at the national level, provides opportunities to reduce avoidable asthma admissions.

Risk of all-cause mortality or hospitalization for pneumonia associated with inhaled ß2-agonists in patients with asthma, COPD or asthma-COPD overlap.

ß2-agonists provide necessary bronchodilatory action, are recommended by existing clinical practice guidelines and are widely prescribed for patients with these conditions. We examined the risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for pneumonia associated with long-or short-acting ß2-agonists (LABA or SABA) or ICS (inhaled corticosteroids)/LABA use. In a nested case-control of 185,407 patients, we found no association between ß2-agonist use and the risk of pneumonia in patients with asthma, COPD, or asthma-COPD overlap. In contrast, new SABA [HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.04-3.20)] or LABA [HR 2.77 (95% CI 1.22-6.31)] use was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to ICS use in COPD patients.

Comparative safety and effectiveness of inhaled bronchodilators and corticosteroids for treating asthma-COPD overlap: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the safety and effectiveness of current pharmacotherapies consisting of long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) and/or inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in patients with asthma-COPD overlap. DATA SOURCES: A systematic search was conducted using the PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases up to June 2018. STUDY SELECTIONS: Only studies comparing the safety and effectiveness of LABA and/or ICS in patients with asthma-COPD overlap were included. A meta-analysis was performed to calculate risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using Inverse Variance Random-effects model. RESULTS: From a total of 3382 articles retrieved, three randomized controlled trials (RCTs), six cohort studies (CS), one nested case control study fulfilled the inclusion criteria for three independent meta-analyses representing 181,603 participants. Three CS results show LABA was associated with decreased risk of myocardial infarction (combined RR: 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.87) versus non-LABA use; ICS/LABA was associated with a lower risk of death or hospitalization (combined RR: 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.90) compared to no use. Results from RCTs, no clear difference in lung function decline in FEV1 was found (combined mean difference: 0.08, 95% CI 0.15-0.32) in patients receiving ICS and/or LABA compared to placebo. However, due to lack of data, exacerbations, fractures and nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease outcomes were not meta-analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with asthma-COPD overlap, LABA is associated with decreased risk of myocardial infarction; and the combination therapy of ICS/LABA appears to reduce the risk of death or hospitalization. More studies of quality data and larger number of patients are needed. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42018090863).

Association between Inhaled ß2-agonists Initiation and Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events: A Population-based Nested Case-Control Study.

Purpose: Despite ample evidence underpinning the efficacy of ß2-agonists in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the occurrence of ß1- and ß2-adrenoceptors in the heart suggests that ß2-agonists may have deleterious cardiac effects. We investigated the association between new users of long-or short-acting ß2-agonists (LABA or SABA) or ICS (inhaled corticosteroids)/LABA and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Methods: A nested case-control analysis was conducted using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink of patients with asthma, COPD or asthma-COPD overlap with initial treatment of LABA, SABA, ICS/LABA, ICS, long-or short-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA or SAMA) between 01 January 1998 and 31 July 2018. The primary outcome was MACE, defined as the first occurrence of stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, or cardiovascular death. Each case was matched with up to 10 controls on age, sex, date of cohort-entry, and duration of follow-up. The risk of MACE associated with ß2-agonists was estimated using conditional logistic regression after controlling for potential confounders. Results: The cohort included 180,567 new users of ß2-agonists, ICS, SAMA, or LAMA. Among asthmatics, ß2-agonists were not associated with the risk of MACE (SABA vs ICS: HR 1.29 [0.96-1.73]; ICS/LABA vs ICS, HR 0.75 [0.33-1.73]). In contrast, among COPD patients, LABA (HR, 2.38 [1.04-5.47]), SABA (HR, 2.02 [1.13-3.59]) and ICS/LABA (HR, 2.08 [1.04-4.16]) users had an increased risk of MACE compared with SAMA users. Among patients with asthma-COPD overlap, SABA (HR, 2.57 [1.26-5.24]) was associated with an increased risk of MACE compared with ICS. Conclusion: In conclusion, initiation of LABA, SABA, or ICS/LABA in COPD or SABA in asthma-COPD overlap is associated with increased risk of MACE. No associations were observed among patients with asthma.

Gender Differences in Inhaled Pharmacotherapy Utilization in Patients with Obstructive Airway Diseases (OADs): A Population-Based Study.

Purpose: Gender differences in the incidence, susceptibility and severity of many obstructive airway diseases (OADs) have been well recognized. However, gender differences in the inhaled pharmacotherapy profile are not well characterized. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to investigate gender differences in new-users of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), short-or long-acting beta2-agonist (SABA or LABA), ICS/LABA, short-or long-acting muscarinic antagonist (SAMA or LAMA) among patients with asthma, COPD or asthma-COPD overlap (ACO). We used Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify OAD patients, 18 years and older, who were new-users (1-year washout period) from 01-January-1998 to 31-July-2018. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine gender differences in each of the inhaled pharmacotherapies after controlling for potential confounders. Results: A total of 242,079 new-users (asthma: 84.93%; COPD: 10.19%; ACO: 4.88%) of inhaled pharmacotherapies were identified. The multivariable analyses showed that males with COPD were more likely to be a new user of a LABA (odds ratio [OR] 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.49), LAMA (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.33), SAMA (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.21) and less likely to be a new user of a SABA (OR 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.89) compared to females. Similar patterns were also observed for patients with ACO; males were more likely to be prescribed with LABA (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.03-1.55), LAMA (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.11-1.48), SAMA (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.11-1.48), and less likely to be a new user of a SABA (OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.96). Also, males with asthma were more likely to be a new-user of ICS/LABA (OR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08-1.23) and less likely to start an ICS (OR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) in comparison with females. Conclusion: Our study showed significant gender differences in new-users of inhaled pharmacotherapies among OAD patients. Adjusting for proxies of disease severity, calendar year, smoking and socioeconomic status did not change the association by gender.

Validated methods to identify patients with asthma-COPD overlap in healthcare databases: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Asthma-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) overlap (ACO) is characterised by patients presenting symptoms of both asthma and COPD. Many efforts have been made to validate different methods of identifying asthma-COPD overlap cases based on symptoms, spirometry and medical history in epidemiological studies using healthcare databases. There are various coding algorithm strategies that can be used and selection depends on targeted validation. The primary objectives of this systematic review are to identify validated methods (or algorithms) that identify patients with ACO from healthcare databases and summarise the reported validity measures of these methods. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE databases and the Web of Science will be systematically searched by using appropriate search strategies that are able to identify studies containing validated codes and algorithms for the diagnosis of ACO in healthcare databases published, in English, before October 2018. For each selected study, we require the presence of at least one test measure (eg, sensitivity, specificity etc). We will also include studies, in which the validated algorithm is compared with an external reference standard such as questionnaires completed by patients or physicians, medical charts review, manual review or an independent second database. For all selected studies, a uniform table will be created to summarise the following vital information: name of author, publication year, country, data source, population, clinical outcome, algorithms, reference standard method of validation and characteristics of the test measure used to determine validity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018087472.