Quality of ethnicity data within Scottish health records and implications of misclassification for ethnic inequalities in severe COVID-19: a national linked data study.

BACKGROUND: We compared the quality of ethnicity coding within the Public Health Scotland Ethnicity Look-up (PHS-EL) dataset, and other National Health Service datasets, with the 2011 Scottish Census. METHODS: Measures of quality included the level of missingness and misclassification. We examined the impact of misclassification using Cox proportional hazards to compare the risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (hospitalization & death) by ethnic group. RESULTS: Misclassification within PHS-EL was higher for all minority ethnic groups [12.5 to 69.1%] compared with the White Scottish majority [5.1%] and highest in the White Gypsy/Traveller group [69.1%]. Missingness in PHS-EL was highest among the White Other British group [39%] and lowest among the Pakistani group [17%]. PHS-EL data often underestimated severe COVID-19 risk compared with Census data. e.g. in the White Gypsy/Traveller group the Hazard Ratio (HR) was 1.68 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.03, 2.74] compared with the White Scottish majority using Census ethnicity data and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.10, 5.15] using PHS-EL data; and HR was 2.03 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.44] in the Census for the Bangladeshi group versus 1.45 [95% CI: 0.75, 2.78] in PHS-EL. CONCLUSIONS: Poor quality ethnicity coding in health records can bias estimates, thereby threatening monitoring and understanding ethnic inequalities in health.

Two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine protection against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths over time: a retrospective, population-based cohort study in Scotland and Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Reports suggest that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is decreasing, but whether this reflects waning or new SARS-CoV-2 variants-especially delta (B.1.617.2)-is unclear. We investigated the association between time since two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland (where delta was dominant), with comparative analyses in Brazil (where delta was uncommon). METHODS: In this retrospective, population-based cohort study in Brazil and Scotland, we linked national databases from the EAVE II study in Scotland; and the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign, Acute Respiratory Infection Suspected Cases, and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection/Illness datasets in Brazil) for vaccination, laboratory testing, clinical, and mortality data. We defined cohorts of adults (aged ≥18 years) who received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and compared rates of severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19 hospital admission or death) across fortnightly periods, relative to 2-3 weeks after the second dose. Entry to the Scotland cohort started from May 19, 2021, and entry to the Brazil cohort started from Jan 18, 2021. Follow-up in both cohorts was until Oct 25, 2021. Poisson regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and vaccine effectiveness, with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: 1 972 454 adults received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Scotland and 42 558 839 in Brazil, with longer follow-up in Scotland because two-dose vaccination began earlier in Scotland than in Brazil. In Scotland, RRs for severe COVID-19 increased to 2·01 (95% CI 1·54-2·62) at 10-11 weeks, 3·01 (2·26-3·99) at 14-15 weeks, and 5·43 (4·00-7·38) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. The pattern of results was similar in Brazil, with RRs of 2·29 (2·01-2·61) at 10-11 weeks, 3·10 (2·63-3·64) at 14-15 weeks, and 4·71 (3·83-5·78) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Scotland, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 83·7% (95% CI 79·7-87·0) at 2-3 weeks, to 75·9% (72·9-78·6) at 14-15 weeks, and 63·7% (59·6-67·4) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Brazil, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 86·4% (85·4-87·3) at 2-3 weeks, to 59·7% (54·6-64·2) at 14-15 weeks, and 42·2% (32·4-50·6) at 18-19 weeks. INTERPRETATION: We found waning vaccine protection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in both Scotland and Brazil, this becoming evident within three months of the second vaccine dose. Consideration needs to be given to providing booster vaccine doses for people who have received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Scottish Government, Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK, Fiocruz, Fazer o Bem Faz Bem Programme; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

HCV reinfection after HCV therapy among HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: Although direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) can clear HCV in nearly all HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals, high rates of reinfection may hamper efforts to eliminate HCV in this population. We investigated reinfection after sustained virological response (SVR) in HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals in Europe. METHODS: Factors associated with odds of reinfection by 2 years after SVR in EuroSIDA participants with one or more HCV-RNA test and 2 years follow-up were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 1022 individuals were included. The median age was 50 (interquartile range: 43-54 years), and most were male (78%), injection drug users (52%), and received interferon (IFN)-free DAAs (62%). By 24 months, 75 [7.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.7-8.9%] individuals were reinfected. Among individuals treated prior to 2014, 16.1% were reinfected compared with 4.2% and 8.3%, respectively, among those treated during or after 2014 with IFN-free and IFN-based therapy. After adjustment, individuals who had started treatment during or after 2014 with IFN-free or IFN-based therapy had significantly lower odds of reinfection (adjusted odds ratio = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.11-0.38; 0.43, 95% CI: 0.22-0.83) compared with those who had received therapy before 2014. There were no significant differences in odds of reinfection according to age, gender, European region, HIV transmission risk group or liver fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals in Europe, 7.3% were reinfected with HCV within 24 months of achieving SVR, with evidence suggesting that this is decreasing over time and with use of newer HCV regimens. Harm reduction to reduce reinfection and surveillance to detect early reinfection with an offer of treatment are essential to eliminate HCV.

Pathways to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes in the United Kingdom: A systematic map.

BACKGROUND: Marked ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 infection and its consequences have been documented. The aim of this paper is to identify the range and nature of evidence on potential pathways which lead to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 related health outcomes in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: We searched six bibliographic and five grey literature databases from 1st December 2019 to 23rd February 2022 for research on pathways to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes in the UK. Meta-data were extracted and coded, using a framework informed by a logic model. Open Science Framework Registration: DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/HZRB7. RESULTS: The search returned 10,728 records after excluding duplicates, with 123 included (83% peer-reviewed). Mortality was the most common outcome investigated (N = 79), followed by infection (N = 52). The majority of studies were quantitative (N = 93, 75%), with four qualitative studies (3%), seven academic narrative reviews (6%), nine third sector reports (7%) and five government reports (4%), and four systematic reviews or meta-analyses (3%). There were 78 studies which examined comorbidities as a pathway to mortality, infection, and severe disease. Socioeconomic inequalities (N = 67) were also commonly investigated, with considerable research into neighbourhood infrastructure (N = 38) and occupational risk (N = 28). Few studies examined barriers to healthcare (N = 6) and consequences of infection control measures (N = 10). Only 11% of eligible studies theorised racism to be a driver of inequalities and 10% (typically government/third sector reports and qualitative studies) explored this as a pathway. CONCLUSION: This systematic map identified knowledge clusters that may be amenable to subsequent systematic reviews, and critical gaps in the evidence-base requiring additional primary research. Most studies do not incorporate or conceptualise racism as the fundamental cause of ethnic inequalities and therefore the contribution to literature and policy is limited.

Ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, intensive care admission, and death: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of over 200 million study participants.

Background: COVID-19 has exacerbated existing ethnic inequalities in health. Little is known about whether inequalities in severe disease and deaths, observed globally among minoritised ethnic groups, relates to greater infection risk, poorer prognosis, or both. We analysed global data on COVID-19 clinical outcomes examining inequalities between people from minoritised ethnic groups compared to the ethnic majority group. Methods: Databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, EMCARE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library) were searched from 1st December 2019 to 3rd October 2022, for studies reporting original clinical data for COVID-19 outcomes disaggregated by ethnicity: infection, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality. We assessed inequalities in incidence and prognosis using random-effects meta-analyses, with Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) use to assess certainty of findings. Meta-regressions explored the impact of region and time-frame (vaccine roll-out) on heterogeneity. PROSPERO: CRD42021284981. Findings: 77 studies comprising over 200,000,000 participants were included. Compared with White majority populations, we observed an increased risk of testing positive for infection for people from Black (adjusted Risk Ratio [aRR]:1.78, 95% CI:1.59-1.99, I2 = 99.1), South Asian (aRR:3.00, 95% CI:1.59-5.66, I2 = 99.1), Mixed (aRR:1.64, 95% CI:1.02-1.67, I2 = 93.2) and Other ethnic groups (aRR:1.36, 95% CI:1.01-1.82, I2 = 85.6). Black, Hispanic, and South Asian people were more likely to be seropositive. Among population-based studies, Black and Hispanic ethnic groups and Indigenous peoples had an increased risk of hospitalisation; Black, Hispanic, South Asian, East Asian and Mixed ethnic groups and Indigenous peoples had an increased risk of ICU admission. Mortality risk was increased for Hispanic, Mixed, and Indigenous groups. Smaller differences were seen for prognosis following infection. Following hospitalisation, South Asian, East Asian, Black and Mixed ethnic groups had an increased risk of ICU admission, and mortality risk was greater in Mixed ethnic groups. Certainty of evidence ranged from very low to moderate. Interpretation: Our study suggests that systematic ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes exist, with large differences in exposure risk and some differences in prognosis following hospitalisation. Response and recovery interventions must focus on tackling drivers of ethnic inequalities which increase exposure risk and vulnerabilities to severe disease, including structural racism and racial discrimination. Funding: ESRC:ES/W000849/1.

Ethnic inequalities in positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, infection prognosis, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: analysis of 2 years of a record linked national cohort study in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to estimate ethnic inequalities in risk for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths over time in Scotland. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study where the 2011 Scottish Census was linked to health records. We included all individuals ≥ 16 years living in Scotland on 1 March 2020. The study period was from 1 March 2020 to 17 April 2022. Self-reported ethnic group was taken from the census and Cox proportional hazard models estimated HRs for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospitalisations and deaths, adjusted for age, sex and health board. We also conducted separate analyses for each of the four waves of COVID-19 to assess changes in risk over time. FINDINGS: Of the 4 358 339 individuals analysed, 1 093 234 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 37 437 hospitalisations and 14 158 deaths occurred. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death among ethnic minority groups was often higher for White Gypsy/Traveller (HR 2.21, 95% CI (1.61 to 3.06)) and Pakistani 2.09 (1.90 to 2.29) groups compared with the white Scottish group. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death following confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test was particularly higher for White Gypsy/Traveller 2.55 (1.81-3.58), Pakistani 1.75 (1.59-1.73) and African 1.61 (1.28-2.03) individuals relative to white Scottish individuals. However, the risk of COVID-19-related death following hospitalisation did not differ. The risk of COVID-19 outcomes for ethnic minority groups was higher in the first three waves compared with the fourth wave. INTERPRETATION: Most ethnic minority groups were at increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland, especially White Gypsy/Traveller and Pakistani groups. Ethnic inequalities persisted following community infection but not following hospitalisation, suggesting differences in hospital treatment did not substantially contribute to ethnic inequalities.

Racism as the fundamental cause of ethnic inequities in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: A theoretical framework and empirical exploration using the UK Household Longitudinal Study.

Ethnic inequities in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been reported in the United Kingdom (UK), and elsewhere. Explanations have mainly focused on differences in the level of concern about side effects, and in lack of trust in the development and efficacy of vaccines. Here we propose that racism is the fundamental cause of ethnic inequities in vaccine hesitancy. We introduce a theoretical framework detailing the mechanisms by which racism at the structural, institutional, and interpersonal level leads to higher vaccine hesitancy among minoritised ethnic groups. We then use data from Wave 6 of the UK Household Longitudinal Study COVID-19 Survey (November to December 2020) to empirically examine these pathways, operationalised into institutional, community, and individual-level factors. We use the Karlson-Holm-Breen method to formally compare the relationship between ethnicity and vaccine hesitancy once age and gender, sociodemographic variables, and institutional, community, and individual-level factors are accounted for. Based on the Average Partial Effects we calculate the percentage of ethnic inequities explained by each set of factors. Findings show that institutional-level factors (socioeconomic position, area-level deprivation, overcrowding) explained the largest part (42%) of the inequity in vaccine hesistancy for Pakistani or Bangladeshi people, and community-level factors (ethnic density, community cohesion, political efficacy, racism in the area) were the most important factors for Indian and Black groups, explaining 35% and 15% of the inequity, respectively. Our findings suggest that if policy intervened on institutional and community-level factors - shaped by structural and institutional racism - considerable success in reducing ethnic inequities might be achieved.

The hepatitis C cascade of care in HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfected individuals in Europe: regional and intra-regional differences.

BACKGROUND: Following the introduction of direct-acting antiviral therapy in 2013, WHO launched the first Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis. We describe a hepatitis C virus (HCV) cascade of care in people with HIV (PWH) across Europe in terms of reaching the WHO elimination targets of diagnosing 90% and treating 80% of HCV-infected individuals. METHODS: HIV/HCV-coinfected participants in the EuroSIDA cohort under prospective follow-up at October 1, 2019, were described using a nine-stage cascade of care. Care cascades were constructed across Europe, on a regional (n = 5) and country (n = 21) level. RESULTS: Of 4773 anti-HCV positive PWH, 4446 [93.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 92.4-93.9)] were ever tested for HCV RNA, and 19.0% (95% CI 16.4-21.6) were currently HCV RNA positive, with the highest prevalence in Eastern and Central-Eastern Europe (33.7 and 29.6%, respectively). In Eastern Europe, 78.1% of the estimated number of chronic infections have been diagnosed, whereas this proportion was above 95% in the other four regions. Overall, 3116 persons have ever started treatment (72.5% of the ever chronically infected, 95% CI 70.9-74.0) and 2404 individuals (55.9% of the ever chronically infected, 95% CI 53.9-57.9) were cured. Cure proportion ranged from 11.2% in Belarus to 87.2% in Austria. CONCLUSION: In all regions except Eastern Europe, more than 90% of the study participants have been tested for HCV-RNA. In Southern and Central-Western regions, more than 80% ever chronically HCV-infected PWH received treatment. The proportion with cured HCV infection did not exceed 80% in any region, with significant heterogeneity between countries. SUMMARY: In a pan-European cohort of PWH, all regions except Eastern Europe achieved the WHO target of diagnosing 90% of chronic HCV infections, while the target of treating 80% of eligible persons was achieved in none of the five regions.

Effectiveness and Safety of Interferon-Free Direct-Acting Antiviral Hepatitis C Virus Therapy in HIV/Hepatitis C Virus Coinfected Individuals: Results From a Pan-European Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effectiveness, safety, and reasons for premature discontinuation of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in a diverse population of HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected individuals in Europe. METHODS: All HIV/HCV coinfected individuals in the EuroSIDA study that started interferon free DAA treatment between January 6, 2014, and January 3, 2018, with ≥12 weeks of follow-up after treatment stop were included in this analysis. Sustained virological response (SVR) was defined as a negative HCV-RNA result ≥12 weeks after stopping treatment (SVR12). Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with SVR12. RESULTS: 1042 individuals started interferon-free DAA treatment after 1/6/2014 and were included, 862 (82.2%) had a known response to treatment, and 789 [91.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 89.7 to 93.4] of which achieved SVR12. There were no differences in SVR12 across regions of Europe (P = 0.84). After adjustment, the odds of achieving SVR12 was lower in individuals that received sofosbuvir/simeprevir ± ribavirin (RBV) [adjusted odds ratio 0.21 (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.53)] or ombitasvir/paritaprevir/dasabuvir ± RBV [adjusted odds ratio 0.46 (95% CI: 0.22 to 1.00)] compared with sofosbuvir/ledipasvir ± RBV. Forty-three (4.6%) individuals had one or more components of their HCV regimen stopped early, most commonly because of toxicity (n = 14); of these 14, 11 were treated with ribavirin. Increased bilirubin was the most common grade 3 or 4 laboratory adverse event (n = 15.3%) and was related to treatment with atazanavir and ribavirin. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings from real-world data on HIV/HCV coinfected individuals across Europe show DAA treatment is well tolerated and that high rates of SVR12 can be achieved in all regions of Europe.

COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million people in Scotland (EAVE II): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The UK COVID-19 vaccination programme has prioritised vaccination of those at the highest risk of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation. The programme was rolled out in Scotland during winter 2020-21, when SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were at their highest since the pandemic started, despite social distancing measures being in place. We aimed to estimate the frequency of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death in people who received at least one vaccine dose and characterise these individuals. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) national surveillance platform, which contained linked vaccination, primary care, RT-PCR testing, hospitalisation, and mortality records for 5·4 million people (around 99% of the population) in Scotland. Individuals were followed up from receiving their first dose of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines until admission to hospital for COVID-19, death, or the end of the study period on April 18, 2021. We used a time-dependent Poisson regression model to estimate rate ratios (RRs) for demographic and clinical factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation or death 14 days or more after the first vaccine dose, stratified by vaccine type. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2020, and April 18, 2021, 2 572 008 individuals received their first dose of vaccine-841 090 (32·7%) received BNT162b2 and 1 730 918 (67·3%) received ChAdOx1. 1196 (<0·1%) individuals were admitted to hospital or died due to COVID-19 illness (883 hospitalised, of whom 228 died, and 313 who died due to COVID-19 without hospitalisation) 14 days or more after their first vaccine dose. These severe COVID-19 outcomes were associated with older age (≥80 years vs 18-64 years adjusted RR 4·75, 95% CI 3·85-5·87), comorbidities (five or more risk groups vs less than five risk groups 4·24, 3·34-5·39), hospitalisation in the previous 4 weeks (3·00, 2·47-3·65), high-risk occupations (ten or more previous COVID-19 tests vs less than ten previous COVID-19 tests 2·14, 1·62-2·81), care home residence (1·63, 1·32-2·02), socioeconomic deprivation (most deprived quintile vs least deprived quintile 1·57, 1·30-1·90), being male (1·27, 1·13-1·43), and being an ex-smoker (ex-smoker vs non-smoker 1·18, 1·01-1·38). A history of COVID-19 before vaccination was protective (0·40, 0·29-0·54). INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths were uncommon 14 days or more after the first vaccine dose in this national analysis in the context of a high background incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and with extensive social distancing measures in place. Sociodemographic and clinical features known to increase the risk of severe disease in unvaccinated populations were also associated with severe outcomes in people receiving their first dose of vaccine and could help inform case management and future vaccine policy formulation. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Scottish Government, and Health Data Research UK.