Narrowing feedstock exemptions under the Montreal Protocol has multiple environmental benefits.

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) can be further strengthened to control ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons used as feedstocks to provide additional protection of the stratospheric ozone layer and the climate system while also mitigating plastics pollution. The feedstock exemptions were premised on the assumption that feedstocks presented an insignificant threat to the environment; experience has shown that this is incorrect. Through its adjustment procedures, the Montreal Protocol can narrow the scope of feedstock exemptions to reduce inadvertent and unauthorized emissions while continuing to exempt production of feedstocks for time-limited, essential uses. This upstream approach can be an effective and efficient complement to other efforts to reduce plastic pollution. Existing mechanisms in the Montreal Protocol such as the Assessment Panels and national implementation strategies can guide the choice of environmentally superior substitutes for feedstock-derived plastics. This paper provides a framework for policy makers, industries, and civil society to consider how stronger actions under the Montreal Protocol can complement other chemical and environmental treaties.

Trifluoroiodomethane as a Precursor to High Global Warming Potential Climate Pollutants: Could the Transformation of Climatically Benign CF3I into Potent Greenhouse Gases Significantly Increase Refrigerant-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

The transition away from the production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has prompted air conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump equipment manufacturers to seek alternative refrigerants with lower direct climate impacts. Additional factors affecting alternative refrigerant choice include safety (i.e., flammability and toxicity), environmental, and thermodynamic constraints. At the same time, manufacturers are incentivized to seek refrigerants with higher energy efficiency, which saves on electricity costs and reduces indirect greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. The life cycle climate performance (LCCP) metric is commonly used to assess the combined direct and indirect climate impacts of refrigerant-use equipment. Here, we consider an additional impact on climate performance: the degradation of refrigerant in equipment, i.e., the direct climate impacts of high-GWP byproducts that can form as the result of adding trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I) to refrigerant blends to reduce flammability. Such a production of high-GWP gases could change the acceptability of CF3I-containing refrigerants. Further, it highlights the need to understand refrigerant degradation within equipment in calculations of the environmental acceptability of new cooling technology.

Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy success story.

In 1974, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. In the decade after scientists documented the buildup and long lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere; found the proof that CFCs chemically decomposed in the stratosphere and catalyzed the depletion of ozone; quantified the adverse effects; and motivated the public and policymakers to take action. In 1987, 24 nations plus the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol. Today, 25 years after the Montreal Protocol was agreed, every United Nations state is a party (universal ratification of 196 governments); all parties are in compliance with the stringent controls; 98% of almost 100 ozone-depleting chemicals have been phased out worldwide; and the stratospheric ozone layer is on its way to recovery by 2065. A growing coalition of nations supports using the Montreal Protocol to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are ozone safe but potent greenhouse gases. Without rigorous science and international consensus, emissions of CFCs and related ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) could have destroyed up to two-thirds of the ozone layer by 2065, increasing the risk of causing millions of cancer cases and the potential loss of half of global agricultural production. Furthermore, because most, ODSs are also greenhouse gases, CFCs and related ODSs could have had the effect of the equivalent of 24-76 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide. This critical review describes the history of the science of stratospheric ozone depletion, summarizes the evolution of control measures and compliance under the Montreal Protocol and national legislation, presents a review of six separate transformations over the last 100 years in refrigeration and air conditioning (A/C) technology, and illustrates government-industry cooperation in continually improving the environmental performance of motor vehicle A/C.

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

GREEN-MAC-LCCP: a tool for assessing the life cycle climate performance of MAC systems.

In 2008, 95% of the vehicle fleet in the developed countries and 80% of fleet in the developing countries were equipped with mobile air conditioning systems (MACs). Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted due to refrigerant leakage (direct emissions) and due to the energy consumed by MACs operation (indirect emissions). In response to reducing the global warming impact of MACs, policy makers and the industry are investigating alternative refrigerant systems that use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. The GREEN-MAC-LCCP model assesses the direct and indirect CO(2) equivalent emissions related to MACs usage, as well as those associated with the production, use and disposal of alternative refrigerants and MACs components. This model provides a platform for simple data input and provides an output summary as well as details that can be analyzed in a custom fashion by the user. It provides engineers and policy makers a state-of-the-art tool, based on sound engineering data and methods, in order to facilitate the process of evaluating alternate refrigerants with low lifecycle global warming impact as well as providing the total impact of any MACs on the environment. It has been recognized as the standard of the MACs industry.

Ozone and TFA impacts in North America from degradation of 2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf), a potential greenhouse gas replacement.

We use a regional-scale, three-dimensional atmospheric model to evaluate U.S. air quality effects that would result from replacing HFC-134a in automobile air conditioners in the U.S. with HFO-1234yf. Although HFO-1234yf produces tropospheric ozone, the incremental amount is small, averaging less than 0.01% of total ozone formed during the simulation. We show that this production of ozone could be compensated for by a modest improvement in air conditioner efficiency. Atmospheric decomposition of HFO-1234yf produces trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which is subject to wet and dry deposition. Deposition and concentrations of TFA are spatially variable due to HFO-1234yf's short atmospheric lifetime, with more localized peaks and less global transport when compared to HFC-134a. Over the 2.5 month simulation, deposition of TFA in the continental U.S. from mobile air conditioners averages 0.24 kg km(-2), substantially higher than previous estimates from all sources of current hydrofluorocarbons. Automobile air conditioning HFO-1234yf emissions are predicted to produce concentrations of TFA in Eastern U.S. rainfall at least double the values currently observed from all sources, natural and man-made. Our model predicts peak concentrations in rainfall of 1264 ng L(-1), a level that is 80x lower than the lowest level considered safe for the most sensitive aquatic organisms.

Estimated 2017 refrigerant emissions of 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFC-1234yf) in the United States resulting from automobile air conditioning.

In response to recent regulations and concern over climate change, the global automotive community is evaluating alternatives to the current refrigerant used in automobile air conditioning units, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane, HFC-134a. One potential alternative is 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFC-1234yf, also known as HFO-1234yf). We have developed a spatially and temporally resolved inventory of likely future HFC refrigerant emissions from the U.S. vehicle fleet in 2017, considering regular, irregular, servicing, and end-of-life leakages. We estimate the annual leak rate emissions for each leakage category for a projected 2017 U.S. vehicle fleet by state, and spatially apportion these leaks to a 36 km square grid over the continental United States. This projected inventory is a necessary first step in analyzing for potential atmospheric and ecosystem effects, such as ozone and trifluoroacetic acid production, that might result from widespread replacement of HFC-134a with HFC-1234yf.

The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.