Mentally disordered offenders in Sweden: differentiating recidivists from non-recidivists in a 10-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Forensic psychiatric patients present a challenge as they manifest severe mental disorders together with criminal behaviour. There are well-known risk factors for criminal behaviour in the general population, yet knowledge of what predicts reconviction in the Swedish forensic population in the long-term perspective is still insufficient. AIMS: The study aims to (1) describe background and clinical characteristics of forensic psychiatric patients in a 10-year follow-up, (2) analyse risk factors associated with recidivism, and (3) test the predictive validity of risk factors for general and violent criminality. METHODS: Detailed information on all offenders from the Malmö University Hospital catchment area sentenced to forensic psychiatric in-patient treatment from 1999-2005 (n = 125) was collected. Court decisions were collected up until the end of 2008 (median follow-up time = 6.2 years, range = 0.6-9.7 years). RESULTS: Relapse in general crime (n = 30) was predicted by low educational attainment, mental disorder in a first degree relative, and low age at first sentenced crime. Relapse in violent crime (n = 16) was predicted by low educational attainment and low GAF scores. Patients with a restriction order were less likely to relapse in both crime categories. CONCLUSIONS: Signs of childhood adversities together with early debut in criminality appeared as important risk factors for general and violent recidivism. Forensic psychiatric treatment combined with a restriction order was demonstrated as a protective factor against recidivism, suggesting that the risk of recidivism is strongly related to the level of supervision. Although the low number of recidivism cases is highly desirable, it unfortunately reduces the power of the analyses in this paper.

Predictors of length of stay in forensic psychiatry: the influence of perceived risk of violence.

This study describes the prevalence of adverse events and length of stay in forensic psychiatric patients with and without a restriction order. Detailed clinical and administrative information from medical records and written court decisions was gathered retrospectively from admission until discharge for a Swedish population-based, consecutive cohort of forensic psychiatric patients (n=125). The median length of stay for the whole cohort was 951 days, but patients with a restriction order stayed in hospital almost five times as long as patients without. Restriction orders were related to convictions for violent crime, but not for any other differences in demographic or clinical variables. The majority of the patients (60%) were involved in adverse events (violence, threats, substance abuse, or absconding) at some time during their treatment. Patients with restriction orders were overrepresented in violent and threat events. Previous contact with child and adolescence psychiatric services, current violent index crime, psychotic disorders, a history of substance, and absconding during treatment predicted longer length of stay. Being a parent, high current Global Assessment of Functioning scores, and mood disorders were all significantly related to earlier discharge. In a stepwise Cox regression analysis current violent index crime and absconding remained risk factors for a longer hospital stay, while a diagnosis of mood disorder was significantly related to a shorter length of stay.