The challenge of prognostic markers in acute pancreatitis: internist's point of view.

Acute pancreatitis, the most frequent hospitalization reason in internal medicine ward among gastrointestinal diseases, is burdened by high mortality rate. The disease manifests mainly in a mild form, but about 20-30% patients have a severe progress that requires intensive care. Patients presenting with acute pancreatitis should be clinically evaluated for organ failure signs and symptoms. Stratifying patients in the first days from symptoms onset is essential to determine therapy and care setting. The aim of our study is to evaluate prognostic factors for acute pancreatitis patients, hospitalized in internal medicine wards, and moreover, understanding the role of various prognostic scores validated in intensive care setting in predicting in-hospital mortality and/or admission to intensive care unit. We conducted a retrospective study enrolling all patients with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis admitted took an internal medicine ward between January 2013 and May 2019. Adverse outcome was considered in-hospital mortality and/or admission to intensive care unit. In total, 146 patients (137 with positive outcome and 9 with adverse outcome) were enrolled. The median age was (67.89 ± 16.44), with a slight prevalence of male (55.1%) compared to female (44.9%). C protein reactive (p = 0.02), creatinine (p = 0.01), sodium (p = 0.05), and troponin I (p = 0.013) after 48 h were significantly increased in patients with adverse outcome. In our study, progression in SOFA score independently increases the probability of adverse outcome in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis. SOFA score > 5 is highly predictive of in-hospital mortality (O.R. 32.00; C.I. 6.73-152.5; p = 0.001) compared to other scores. The use of an easy tool, validated in intensive care setting such as SOFA score, might help to better stratify the risk of in-hospital mortality and/or clinical worsening in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis in internal medicine ward.

Performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting new onset atrial fibrillation during hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular events are common during hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), with new onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) being the second most relevant complication. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting NOAF during hospitalization for CAP. METHODS: Patients admitted for CAP were prospectively assessed using CHA2DS2-VASc. The end-point of the study was the occurrence of any objectively documented episode of NOAF during hospitalization in patients that were in sinus rhythm at hospital admission. RESULTS: Of 468 patients enrolled (median age 76 years), 48 (10.3%) experienced NOAF during hospitalization. They were older, had more comorbidities, more severe pneumonia, and higher CHA2DS2-VASc than those who remained in sinus rhythm (4.4 ±â€¯1.6 vs 3.4 ±â€¯1.9, respectively; p < .0001). There was a direct relationship between CHA2DS2-VASc score and risk of NOAF. At ROC curve analysis, a CHA2DS2-VASc score > 3 was the most accurate cut-off for prediction of NOAF (AUC 0.653; 95% CI 0.577-0.729; p = .001). In two different multivariable models, each CHA2DS2-VASc point increase and a score > 3 both were independently associated with NOAF (HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.09-1.55; p = .003 and 2.3; 95% CI 1.19-4.44; p = .007, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: CHA2DS2-VASc score is an accurate and independent predictor of NOAF in patients with CAP, and a score > 3 features a population at high risk of developing the arrhythmia during hospitalization. This simple and effective tool should be incorporated in the evaluation of patients hospitalized for CAP, with implications ranging from arrhythmic prevention to anticoagulation management.

Usefulness of procalcitonin in differentiating Candida and bacterial blood stream infections in critically ill septic patients outside the intensive care unit.

We aimed to explore the role of procalcitonin (PCT) for the diagnosis of Candida spp. bloodstream infections in a population of critically ill septic patients admitted to internal medicine units. This is a retrospective case-control study considering all cases of candidemia identified in three internal medicine units, from January 1st 2012 to May 31st 2016. For each case of candidemia, two patients with bacteremic sepsis were included in the study as control cases. The end point of the study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of PCT for the diagnosis of Candida spp. blood stream infections in patients with objectively documented sepsis. Sixty-four patients with candidemia and 128 controls with bacteremia were enrolled. Median and interquartile range (IQR) PCT values are significantly lower in patients with candidemia (0.73; IQR 0.26-1.85 ng/mL) than in those with bacteremia (4.48; IQR 1.10-18.26 ng/mL). At ROC curve analysis, values of PCT greater than 2.5 ng/mL had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.3% with an AUC of 0.76 (0.68-0.84 95% CI) for the identification of Candida spp. from blood cultures. At multivariate analysis, a PCT value <2.5 ng/mL showed an odds ratio of 8.57 (95% CI 3.09-23.70; p < 0.0001) for candidemia. In septic patients at risk of Candida infection, a PCT value lower than 2.5 ng/mL should raise the suspicion of candidemia, adding value for considering prompt initiation of antifungal therapy.

Procalcitonin Kinetics in the First 72 Hours Predicts 30-Day Mortality in Severely Ill Septic Patients Admitted to an Intermediate Care Unit.

BACKGROUND: Severe sepsis and septic shock are leading causes of morbidity and mortality among critically ill patients, thus the identification of prognostic factors is crucial to determine their outcome. In this study, we explored the value of procalcitonin (PCT) variation in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis admitted to an intermediate care unit. METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled 789 consecutive patients with severe sepsis and septic shock admitted to a medical intermediate care unit between November 2012 and February 2014. Kinetics of PCT expressed as percentage were defined by the variation between admission and 72 hours, and 24 and 72 hours; they were defined as Δ-PCT0-72h and Δ-PCT24-72h, respectively. RESULTS: The final study group of 144 patients featured a mean age of 73 ± 14 years, with a high prevalence of comorbidities (Charlson index greater than 6 in 39%). Overall, 30-day mortality was 28.5% (41/144 patients). A receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis identified a decrease of Δ-PCT0-72h less than 15% (area under the curve: 0.75; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67 - 0.82) and a decrease of Δ-PCT24-72h less than 20% (area under the curve: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.74 - 0.92) as the most accurate cut-offs in predicting mortality. Decreases of Δ-PCT0-72h less than 15% (HR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.6 - 9.5; P < 0.0001) and Δ-PCT24-72h less than 20% (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.2 - 7.9; P < 0.001) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of PCT kinetics over the first 72 hours is a useful tool for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock admitted to an intermediate care unit.