Preference, perceived change, and professed relationship among ecosystem services in the Himalayas.

The demand side of ecosystem service (ES), especially preference and perception of supply and interactions among ES, is an important yet underexplored research area for landscape planning and management in human-dominated landscapes. Taking a case of multifunctional landscape in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, we carried out a social survey of ES, focusing on preference, perceived change, and observed relationship among six major ES from the local people's perspective. Using a semi-structured questionnaire, data collection was done from 300 households from 10 categories of human settlements, based on watershed and land cover types. Garrett mean score (GMS), ordinal logistic regression estimates, and Chi-square test were performed for quantitative data, while an inductive approach was adopted for qualitative data analysis. The results show that at the landscape level, local people preferred water yield (GMS = 70) and crop production (GMS = 66) as the most preferred ES, whereas habitat quality (GMS = 37) and carbon sequestration (GMS = 35) were among the least preferred ES. More than 70% of the respondents believed that the supply of crop production has decreased over the last two decades; however, the supply of other provisioning and non-provisioning ES has increased as observed by majority of the respondents. Among the 15 pairs of ES, local people believe that co-occurrence of ES is possible. Majority of the respondents said that there exist synergistic relationship among 13 pairs of ES, except crop production which is negatively related with timber production and carbon sequestration. Among the identified trade-offs in ES, majority of local people believed that direct trade-offs (i.e., linear inverse relationship) is dominant as observed in 8 pairs of ES, followed by concave and convex trade-offs. Based on our analysis, we argue that the preference and perceived change of ES is more dependent on spatial heterogeneity of communities (i.e., watershed type, municipal category, and land cover type of residence) than socio-economic determinants. Further, we have discussed and suggested few policy and management measures including place-based spatial assessment of the social demand and preference, embracing agroforestry practices in ecosystem management programs, mainstreaming non-local ES in local decision making by incentives, and optimizing the supply of desired ES though integrated biophysical and socio-economic assessment of the landscape.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Unlocking the tapestry of conservation: Navigating ecological resettlement policies in Nepal.

Conservation initiatives involve a complex interplay of various ecological, socio-political, and economic factors. Ecological resettlement (ER), implemented within the context of nature conservation policies, stands as one of the most contested issues worldwide. This study aims to navigate the domain of ER policy in conservation through discursive institutionalism and a policy arrangement approach. Focusing on Nepal's conservation policy pathways over the last seven decades, we critically analyze policy ideas and narratives, trends, patterns of policy development, institutional arrangements, driving factors, and responses to contemporary ER policies. Methods involved a systematic literature review (n = 271), a comprehensive review of policy documents and project reports (n > 150), and expert interviews (n = 20). Over the past 50 years, >7600 households in Nepal have been displaced in the name of ER and are still persisting despite the rhetoric of participatory conservation. With changes in political regimes, conservation policy has shifted from a hunting-focused approach to landscape-level and transboundary conservation. Initially influenced by internal factors such as economic and political governance, conservation policies were later shaped by international conservation discourse. Also, the operational sphere of such policy ideas and narratives - including actors, resources, discourses, and rules - along with trends, priorities, institutional arrangements, and driving factors of ER policies, has changed over time. Further, the exclusion of deprived communities and the capture of conservation benefits by elites have undermined conservation values. This research stresses the importance of a judicious balance between people's welfare and nature's integrity, emphasizing community-based natural resource management models accredited to a conservation standard. We further urge the revision of displacement-oriented conservation policies to secure the rights of Indigenous people and traditional landholders, thereby ensuring conservation and sustainable development at both national and global levels.

Transforming agroforestry in contested landscapes: A win-win solution to trade-offs in ecosystem services in Nepal.

Trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly becoming a pressing issue in sustainability science, to deal with supply constraints of landscape and divergence in demand from local and global stakeholders. Agroforestry is a well acknowledged and established management practice to minimize the trade-offs, and to sustainably manage the contested landscapes while satisfying the growing demands of both local and global ecosystem beneficiaries. However, various facets of agroforestry, its management modality, institutional arrangements, and implementation outcomes are inadequately understood. This paper aims to scrutinize major agroforestry practices through the methods of systematic review of literature, government policies, and project reports. Taking a case of Nepal, this paper presents agroforestry transition from forest-based agroforestry (i.e., shifting cultivation) to farm-based integrated approach to agroforestry in Nepal. This paper reveals that integrated agro-forestry approach is crucial in creating win-win scenarios among various stakeholders by minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies among ES, especially food, fibre, and other ES (i.e., biodiversity, soil functioning, water, and climate regulation). Analysing socio-economic, ecological, and institutional factors that are affecting agroforestry for the last fifty years, we further suggest an integrated model of agroforestry which is replicable in other countries with similar socio-economic status, practicing subsistence farming system. The findings of the paper are crucial in awakening scholars, policy makers and landscape managers for up-scaling and out-scaling of integrated approach to agroforestry for ecosystem management and attainment of various sustainable development goals such as, no poverty (#1), zero hunger (#2), climate action (#13), and life on land (#15).

Assay of renewable energy transition: A systematic literature review.

Issues of environmental degradation, finite quantity and uneven spatial distribution of fuels in nature, and growing demand accentuated by volatility of oil prices have led to the global clean renewable energy transition (RET). With an objective of examining the current knowledge-stock on RET, we reviewed 248 journal publications pooled from three databases (ScienceDirect, Web of Science and Scopus) using a Systematic Literature Review method. This study does not focus on the specifications of a particular energy technology or regress relations among a limited set of variables. Rather, the key contribution is the critical assessment of the factors that encourage and those that hinder the transition process to provide a wider perspective through seven broad lenses: technological, investment, market, environmental, government and institutional, policy and social. Research, development and implementation of technology is a direct outcome of policy investment. Developed countries are leading the RET research while the global south is far behind. Most of the studies were found to be donor-driven which faced a serious risk of being counter-welcomed in different settings of the world without compromising the objectives of the transition. A strong international collaboration among the rich and poor countries is urgently felt necessary to foster mutual benefits. Research, planning and implementation of the RET would be highly effective and sustainable through a participatory bottom-up approach promoting local technology instead of imposed expensive imported ones. The need for "demand-pull" and "technology-push" policy instruments is stringent for successful transition. We conclude that there is a unanimous agreement among all the studies on the future prospects of renewable energy in the electricity sector; however, some skepticism still exists regarding other high energy demanding areas. Our review recommends updating existing and designing new robust policy mixes to guide the modality and pace of the RET, adhering to local specificities.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal.

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

How much do we know about trade-offs in ecosystem services? A systematic review of empirical research observations.

As an important domain of sustainability science, trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for spatial planning to sustainably manage natural resources while satisfying the needs of local and non-local beneficiaries. However, there is still a growing debate in understanding, characterization, and visualization of the trade-off relationships. This paper systematically reviews a total of 473 articles, published in the last 16 years (2005-2020) through 135 academic journals, based on empirical studies conducted in over 80 countries, and led by the researcher from over 50 countries. Trade-off relationships are often visualized as spatial associations of ES, but very few articles have characterized trade-offs as the causal interaction among ES. More than two-thirds of the studies were carried out in temperate and sub-tropical regions, but we depicted an under-representation of the critical ecosystems in tropics. About 90% of the articles were based on funded research but the involvement of government institutions was very low (<10%). Trade-off analysis was based only on biophysical constraints of the ecosystem, as observed in more than 80% of the selected articles, without due regards of the divergence in utility functions of different stakeholders and ecosystem beneficiaries. This study identifies a total of 198 pairs of conflicting ES, of which the trade-off between crop production and carbon/climate services has the highest records of observation (i.e., as identified by 20% of the total studies). Further, this study identifies the major drivers (i.e., ecological and social) and stakeholders (i.e., land users and government agencies) of trade-off in ES, and major gaps in the analytical approach to understand the trade-off relationships. Based on our findings, we have discussed and recommended a number of research trajectories, including trans-disciplinary research considering both biophysical constraints and utility functions, in order to guide the future direction of sustainability science through the creation of win-win scenarios.

Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios.

Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one-horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using ten different species distribution modeling algorithms in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Out of ten algorithms, random forest performed the best, and five environmental variables-distance from grasslands, mean temperature of driest quarter, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 2610 km2, about 1.77% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 2325 and 1904 km2 in 2050; and (2) 2287 and 1686 km2 in 2070, respectively. Our results suggest that over one-third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.

Trends and current state of research on greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis): A systematic review of the literature over a period of 33 years (1985-2018).

Greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is one of the most iconic wildlife species in the world. Once reduced to fewer than 500 during the 1960s, its global population has been recovering and is now over 3500, thanks to effective conservation programs in India and Nepal, the only two countries in the world where this species is found. It is one of the greatest success stories in biodiversity conservation given that hundreds of other species have disappeared, and thousands of species are on the verge of extinction. However, poaching is not the only threat for the long-term survival of rhinoceros. Loss and degradation of grassland habitat and the drying-up of wetlands are emerging threats predicted to worsen in the future, but the published information on rhinoceros has never been synthesized. In order to better understand the trends and current status of rhinoceros research and identify research gaps inhibiting its long-term conservation, we analyzed the themes discussed in 215 articles covering a period of 33 years between 1985 and 2018. Our findings suggest that studies on both free-ranging and captive rhinoceros are skewed towards biological aspects of the species including morphology, anatomy, physiology, and behaviour. There are no studies addressing the likely effects of climate change on the species, and limited information is available on rhinoceros genetics, diseases, habitat dynamics and the impacts of tourism and other infrastructure development in and around rhinoceros habitat. These issues will need addressing to maintain the conservation success of greater one-horned rhinoceros into the future.

Savanna burning methodology for fire management and emissions reduction: a critical review of influencing factors.

Savanna fire is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Australia, savanna fire contributes about 3% of annual GHG emissions reportable to the Kyoto Protocol. In order to reduce GHG emissions from savanna burning, the Australian government has developed and approved a Kyoto compliant savanna controlled burning methodology-the first legal instrument of this kind at a global level-under its Emission Reduction Fund. However, this approved methodology is currently only applicable to nine vegetation fuel types across northern parts of Australia in areas which receive on average over 600 mm rainfall annually, covering only 15.4% of the total land area in Australia. Savanna ecosystems extend across a large proportion of mainland Australia. This paper provides a critical review of ten key factors that need to be considered in developing a savanna burning methodology applicable to the other parts of Australia. It will also inform discussion in other countries intent on developing similar emissions reduction strategies.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from inputs into farm enterprises in southeast Queensland, Australia.

One of the assumptions underlying efforts to convert cropping land, especially marginal crop land, to plantations is that there will be a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with a gas "sink" replacing a high energy system in which the breakdown of biomass is routinely accelerated to prepare for new crops. This research, based on case studies in Kingaroy in southeast Queensland, compares the amount of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions from a peanut/maize crop rotation, a pasture system for beef production and a spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora) timber plantation. Three production inputs, fuel, farm machinery and agrochemicals (fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides) are considered. The study extends beyond the farm gate to include packing and transportation and the time period is 30 years. The results suggest that replacing the crops with plantations would indeed reduce emissions but that a pasture system would have even lower net emissions. These findings cast some doubt on the case for farm forestry as a relatively effective means of ameliorating greenhouse gas emissions.

Geographic information system based manure application plan.

A geographic information system (GIS) based manure application plan has been developed for the site-specific application of animal waste to agricultural fields in the Westbrook sub-catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin, south-east Queensland, Australia. Sites suitable for animal waste application were identified using a GIS based weighted linear combination (WLC) model. The degree of land suitability for animal waste application was determined using a range of social, economic, environmental, and agricultural factors. As eutrophication and toxic blue-green algae blooms are a known problem in the catchment, the manure application rates were limited to the rate of crop phosphorus removal. Maximum manure application rate was calculated spatially by taking the crop nutrient (P2O5) requirement and the manure nutrient (P2O5) content into account. The environmental suitability of the fields receiving animal waste was considered in prescribing the final application rate of solid and liquid manures generated by local animal production facilities. The degree of site suitability of the agricultural fields was also used to suggest manure management practices to minimise the socio-environmental risks and increase the nutrient use efficiency of the applied manure. The amount of ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N) that would be added to the soil by satisfying the P2O5 requirement using manure sources was also calculated and an applied NH4-N map was created. This map could be used to assist farmers identify additional nitrogen requirements after manure application.