Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports.

The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia's GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia's GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability.

Services as a Determinant of Botswana's Economic Sustainability.

In 2015, the services sector contributed about 58 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which was a significant increase from the 47.6 percent observed in 2005, and a shift from the mining, agriculture, and manufacturing sector. This increase calls to support services as the catalyst for sustained economic development as indicated by the structural transformation and modernization theories. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between and the impact of services on the economic development in Botswana and make recommendations on how Botswana can apply well-directed policies to improve its services sector and diversify its impact on other sectors and GDP, making it less reliant on mining which is vulnerable to price volatilities. The paper applied econometric modeling and results of the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration indicate that services and other industries services, agriculture, industry, mining, and investment impact GDP over the short and long run. These variables impacted GDP and converged to equilibrium at the speed of 46.89 percent, with a percent change in services in the short and long run impacting GDP by 0.328 and 0.241 percentages, respectively, and the outcome of the Wald test indicated causality from services to GDP growth. The services sectors have contributed over 40 percent to the country's GDP from 1995 to the present, though the sectors have not gone without challenges with limitations such as limited infrastructure development; poverty and inequality; unemployment of over 20 percent; disease, which has dampened productivity; and lack of proper governance and accountability, which has created a habitat for an increase in cases of corruption in state and private entities. The findings of the study with the lessons learned from other studies with similar findings recommend that the government of Botswana should formulate suitable policies and strategies for services diversification. This is by expanding the market for the sector in areas such as tourism that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating investments by instituting strategies to attract and grow domestic and foreign investments, and improve on management of institutions and resources.