Modelling of Hepatitis B Virus vertical transmission dynamics in Ethiopia: a compartmental modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B (HB) is a virus which causes a potentially fatal liver infection. It is a DNA virus belonging to the Hepadnaviridae virus family. Africa, after Asia, has the second highest number of chronic HBV carriers and is considered a high-endemic region. Ethiopia is classified as a country with a high prevalence of viral hepatitis and with nations that lack a systematic strategy for viral hepatitis surveillance. METHODS: S-I-C-R deterministic model was developed and the numerical simulations were done in "R" statistical and programming software. Fixed population assumption was considered so as to develop a simple model which could predict the HBV vertical transmission for the next 5 decades. RESULTS: The model revealed that significant number of populations will be infected and become carrier till the end the next 49 years even though it has decreasing trend. It was predicted that 271,719 people will die of HBV complications if no intervention will be made on its vertical transmission. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the force of infection has the most important parameter in the vertical transmission dynamics of hepatitis B. Provision of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBVIG) and vaccines at the time of delivery could decrease the force of infection by more than half and 51,892 lives will be saved if the intervention is offered for 50% of deliveries in Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that the incidence of HBV vertical transmission is substantial, it is expected to decline during the next five decades. However, the situation necessitates immediate attention, since it results in thousands of deaths if no action is taken. Offering HBVIG and vaccinations to the 50% of infants can save many lives and reduces the force of infection by more than a half.

Incidence and predictors of anemia among adults on HIV care at South Gondar Zone Public General Hospital Northwest Ethiopia, 2020; retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is a major public health problem worldwide which accounts 24.8% of the population. Subsequently, anemia is a leading killer of people living with human immunodeficiency virus and many of these deaths occur in developing countries including Ethiopia. Cross sectional studies have done on anemia and human immunodeficiency virus. However, there is limited study on incidence of anemia and its predictors among adults on HIV care, especially no survival study has been conducted in the study area. OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and predictors of anemia among adults on Human immunodeficiency virus care. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 434 adults on HIV care from January 1st 2015 to December 30th 2019 at Debre Tabor Referral Hospital. A computer-generated simple random sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. Ethical clearance was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of Bahir Dar University, and also, we got implied consent to review charts from the concerned bodies in the hospital. Data were entered using Epi-data version 3.1 and analyzed by using STATA version 14.0. A Kaplan Meier survival curve was utilized to estimate anemia free survival time. Bivariable and Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model were fitted to identify predictors of anemia. RESULTS: The overall incidence density rate of anemia was 6.27 (95% CI: 0.051, 0.077) per 100 person years. Clinical stage III/IV (AHR = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.06), Body Mass Index less than 18.5 kg/m2 (AHR = 3.11; 95% CI = 1.56, 6.22), serum creatinine greater than 1.1 IU/L(AHR = 2.07; 95% CI = 1.12, 3.81) and fair/poor level of adherence(AHR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.07) were statistically significant predictors of anemia while increased anti-retroviral treatment duration (AHR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97, 0.99) decrease the risk of anemia at 95% confidence level. CONCLUSION: The overall incidence density rate of anemia was high. Patients with clinical stage III/IV, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2, serum creatinine greater than 1.1 IU/L and fair/poor level of adherence were significant predictors of anemia while increased antiretroviral treatment duration had decreased the risk of anemia. RECOMMENDATION: Even if the overall incidence rate of anemia was lower as compared to previous studies in Ethiopia, still the incidence of anemia was high. So, prevention measures should be taken beside with HIV care especially within 6-months ART initiation.

Estimation of lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest, Ethiopia, 2021; a multicentre historical follow-up study.

INTRODUCTION: In resource-limited settings, the mortality rate among tuberculosis and human Immunodeficiency virus co-infected children is higher. However, there is no adequate evidence in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Hence, this study aims to estimate lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals, 2021. METHODS: Institution-based historical follow-up study was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals among 227 Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus co-infected children from March 1, 2014, to January 12, 2021. The data were entered into Epi info-7 and then exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. The log-rank test was used to estimate the curve difference of the predictor variables. Bivariable cox-proportional hazard models were employed for each predictor variable. Additionally, those variables having a p-value < 0.25 in bivariate analysis were fitted into a multivariable cox-proportional hazards model. P-value < 0.05 was used to declare significance associated with the dependent variable. RESULTS: From a total of 227 TB and HIV co-infected children, 39 died during the follow-up period. The overall mortality rate was 3.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.9-4.7) per 100 person-years with a total of 1063.2-year observations. Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) non-users [Adjusted Hazarded Ratio (AHR) = 3.8 (95% CI: 1.64-8.86)], presence of treatment failure [AHR = 3.0 (95% CI: 1.14-78.17)], and Cluster of differentiation 4(CD4) count below threshold [AHR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.21-6.45)] were significant predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: In this study, the mortality rate among TB and HIV co-infected children was found to be very high. The risk of mortality among TB and HIV co-infected children was associated with treatment failure, CD4 count below the threshold, and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy non-users. Further research should conduct to assess and improve the quality of ART service in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals.