Modeling avian full annual cycle distribution and population trends with citizen science data.

Information on species' distributions, abundances, and how they change over time is central to the study of the ecology and conservation of animal populations. This information is challenging to obtain at landscape scales across range-wide extents for two main reasons. First, landscape-scale processes that affect populations vary throughout the year and across species' ranges, requiring high-resolution, year-round data across broad, sometimes hemispheric, spatial extents. Second, while citizen science projects can collect data at these resolutions and extents, using these data requires appropriate analysis to address known sources of bias. Here, we present an analytical framework to address these challenges and generate year-round, range-wide distributional information using citizen science data. To illustrate this approach, we apply the framework to Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), a long-distance Neotropical migrant and species of conservation concern, using data from the citizen science project eBird. We estimate occurrence and abundance across a range of spatial scales throughout the annual cycle. Additionally, we generate intra-annual estimates of the range, intra-annual estimates of the associations between species and characteristics of the landscape, and interannual trends in abundance for breeding and non-breeding seasons. The range-wide population trajectories for Wood Thrush show a close correspondence between breeding and non-breeding seasons with steep declines between 2010 and 2013 followed by shallower rates of decline from 2013 to 2016. The breeding season range-wide population trajectory based on the independently collected and analyzed North American Breeding Bird Survey data also shows this pattern. The information provided here fills important knowledge gaps for Wood Thrush, especially during the less studied migration and non-breeding periods. More generally, the modeling framework presented here can be used to accurately capture landscape scale intra- and interannual distributional dynamics for broadly distributed, highly mobile species.

Making spatial prioritizations robust to climate change uncertainties: a case study with North American birds.

Spatial prioritizations are essential tools for conserving biodiversity in the face of accelerating climate change. Uncertainty about species' responses to changing climates can complicate prioritization efforts, however, and delay conservation investment. In an effort to facilitate decision-making, we identified three hypotheses about species' potential responses to climate change based on distinct biological assumptions related to niche flexibility and colonization ability. Using 314 species of North American birds as a test case, we tuned separate spatial prioritizations to each hypothesis and assessed the degree to which assumptions about biological responses affected the perceived conservation value of the landscape and prospects for individual taxa. We also developed a bet-hedging prioritization to minimize the chance that incorrect assumptions would lead to valuable landscapes and species being overlooked in multispecies prioritizations. Collectively, these analyses help to quantify the sensitivity of spatial prioritizations to different assumptions about species' responses to climate change and provide a framework for enabling efficient conservation investment despite substantial biological uncertainty.

Optimizing the conservation of migratory species over their full annual cycle.

Limited knowledge of the distribution, abundance, and habitat associations of migratory species hinders effective conservation actions. We use Neotropical migratory birds as a model group to compare approaches to prioritize land conservation needed to support ≥30% of the global abundances of 117 species. Specifically, we compare scenarios from spatial optimization models to achieve conservation targets by: 1) area requirements for conserving >30% abundance of each species for each week of the year independently vs. combined; 2) including vs. ignoring spatial clustering of species abundance; and 3) incorporating vs. avoiding human-dominated landscapes. Solutions integrating information across the year require 56% less area than those integrating weekly abundances, with additional reductions when shared-use landscapes are included. Although incorporating spatial population structure requires more area, geographical representation among priority sites improves substantially. These findings illustrate that globally-sourced citizen science data can elucidate key trade-offs among opportunity costs and spatiotemporal representation of conservation efforts.