Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: introduction.

Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50% reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Factors influencing phosphorus levels delivered to Everglades National Park, Florida, USA.

Everglades restoration is dependent on constructed wetlands to treat agricultural phosphorus (P)-enriched runoff prior to delivery to the Everglades. Over the last 5 years, P concentrations delivered to the northern boundary of Everglades National Park (Park) have remained higher than the 8 µg L(-1)-target identified to be protective of flora and fauna. Historically, Everglades hydrology was driven by rainfall that would then sheetflow through the system. The system is now divided into a number of large impoundments. We use sodium-to-calcium ratios as a water source discriminator to assess the influence of management and environmental conditions to understand why P concentrations in Park inflows remain higher than that of the target. Runoff from Water Conservation Area 3A (Area 3A) and canal water from areas north of Area 3A are two major sources of water to the Park, and both have distinct Na:Ca ratios. The P concentrations of Park inflows have decreased since the 1980s, and from June 1994 through May 2000, concentrations were the lowest when Area 3A water depths were the deepest. Area 3A depths declined following this period and P concentrations subsequently increased. Further, some water sources for the Park are not treated and are impeding concentration reductions. Promoting sheetflow over channelized flow and treating untreated water sources can work in conjunction with constructed wetlands to further reduce nutrient loading to the sensitive Everglades ecosystem.

Conductivity as a tracer of agricultural and urban runoff to delineate water quality impacts in the northern Everglades.

Agricultural and urban runoff pumped into the perimeter canals of the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge), a 58,320-ha soft-water wetland, has elevated nutrients which impact the Refuge interior marsh. To best manage the Refuge, linkages between inflows to the perimeter canals and environmental conditions within the marsh need to be understood. Conductivity, which typically is high in the canals and lowest at the most interior sites, was used as a surrogate tracer to characterize patterns of constituent transport. The Refuge was initially classified into four zones based upon patterns and variability in conductivity data: Canal Zone; Perimeter Zone (canal to 2.5 km into the interior); Transition Zone (2.5 to 4.5 km from the canal); Interior Zone (>4.5 km from the canal). Conductivity variability declined from the Perimeter to the Interior Zone, with the highest variability in the marsh observed in the Perimeter Zone and the lowest variability observed in the Interior Zone. Analysis of other water quality parameters indicated that conditions in the Perimeter and Transition Zones were different, and more impacted, than in the Interior Zone. In general, there was a positive relationship between structure inflows and canal phosphorus concentrations, including discharges from treatment wetlands and bypasses of untreated water. This classification approach is applicable for stratified sampling designs, resolving spatial bias in water quality models, and in aiding in management decisions about resource allocation.