Structured expert elicitation to inform long-term survival extrapolations using alternative parametric distributions: a case study of CAR T therapy for relapsed/ refractory multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to extend traditional parametric models used to extrapolate survival in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) by integrating individual-level patient data (IPD) from a clinical trial with estimates from experts regarding long-term survival. This was illustrated using a case study evaluating survival of patients with triple-class exposed relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma treated with the chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) in KarMMa (a phase 2, single-arm trial). METHODS: The distribution of patients expected to be alive at 3, 5, and 10 years given the observed survival from KarMMa (13.3 months of follow-up) was elicited from 6 experts using the SHeffield ELicitation Framework. Quantities of interest were elicited from each expert individually, which informed the consensus elicitation including all experts. Estimates for each time point were assumed to follow a truncated normal distribution. These distributions were incorporated into survival models, which constrained the expected survival based on standard survival distributions informed by IPD from KarMMa. RESULTS: Models for ide-cel that combined KarMMa data with expert opinion were more consistent in terms of survival as well as mean survival at 10 years (survival point estimates under different parametric models were 29-33% at 3 years, 5-17% at 5 years, and 0-6% at 10 years) versus models with KarMMa data alone (11-39% at 3 years, 0-25% at 5 years, and 0-11% at 10 years). CONCLUSION: This case study demonstrates a transparent approach to integrate IPD from trials with expert opinion using traditional parametric distributions to ensure long-term survival extrapolations are clinically plausible.

Assessing the Value of Cemiplimab for Adults With Advanced Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab in patients with advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) from a payer perspective in the United States. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab versus historical standard of care (SOC). All inputs were identified based on a systematic literature review, supplemented by expert opinion where necessary. Clinical inputs for cemiplimab were based on individual patient data from a cemiplimab phase 2 single-arm trial (NCT27060498). For SOC, analysis was based on a pooled analysis of single-arm clinical trials and retrospective studies evaluating chemotherapy and epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors (cetuximab, erlotinib, and gefitinib) identified via a systematic literature review (6 of the 27 included studies). Overall survival and progression-free survival were extrapolated over a lifetime horizon. Costs were included for drug acquisition, drug administration, management of adverse events, subsequent therapy, disease management, and terminal care. Unit costs were based on published 2019 US list prices. RESULTS: In the base case, cemiplimab versus SOC resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $99 447 per quality adjusted-life year (QALY), where incremental costs and QALYs were $372 108 and 3.74, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000/QALY, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests a 90% probability that cemiplimab is cost-effective compared to SOC. Scenario analyses resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $90 590 to $148 738. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with historical SOC, cemiplimab is a cost-effective use of US payer resources for the treatment of advanced CSCC and is expected to provide value for money.

Comparative efficacy of cemiplimab versus other systemic treatments for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

Aim: To estimate the comparative efficacy of cemiplimab, a programmed cell death protein 1 inhibitor, versus EGFR inhibitors, pembrolizumab and platinum-based chemotherapy in terms of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. Patients & methods: We performed an indirect treatment comparison of cemiplimab and other available systemic therapies for patients with advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Results: Cemiplimab was associated with benefits in OS (hazard ratios range: 0.07-0.52) and progression-free survival (hazard ratios range: 0.30-0.67) versus EGFR inhibitors and pembrolizumab (data from KEYNOTE-629). Cemiplimab was more efficacious versus platinum-based chemotherapy in terms of OS. Conclusion: Cemiplimab may offer improvements in survival for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma patients compared with existing systemic therapies.

Integrating expert opinion with clinical trial data to extrapolate long-term survival: a case study of CAR-T therapy for children and young adults with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term clinical outcomes are necessary to assess the cost-effectiveness of new treatments over a lifetime horizon. Without long-term clinical trial data, current practice to extrapolate survival beyond the trial period involves fitting alternative parametric models to the observed survival. Choosing the most appropriate model is based on how well each model fits to the observed data. Supplementing trial data with feedback from experts may improve the plausibility of survival extrapolations. We demonstrate the feasibility of formally integrating long-term survival estimates from experts with empirical clinical trial data to provide more credible extrapolated survival curves. METHODS: The case study involved relapsed or refractory B-cell pediatric and young adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (r/r pALL) regarding long-term survival for tisagenlecleucel (chimeric antigen receptor T-cell [CAR-T]) with evidence from the phase II ELIANA trial. Seven pediatric oncologists and hematologists experienced with CAR-T therapies were recruited. Relevant evidence regarding r/r pALL and tisagenlecleucel provided a common basis for expert judgments. Survival rates and related uncertainty at 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were elicited from experts using a web-based application adapted from Sheffield Elicitation Framework. Estimates from each expert were combined with observed data using time-to-event parametric models that accounted for experts' uncertainty, producing an overall distribution of survival over time. These results were validated based on longer term follow-up (median duration 24.2 months) from ELIANA following the elicitation. RESULTS: Extrapolated survival curves based on ELIANA trial without expert information were highly uncertain, differing substantially depending on the model choice. Survival estimates between 2 to 5 years from individual experts varied with a fair amount of uncertainty. However, incorporating expert estimates improved the precision in the extrapolated survival curves. Predictions from a Gompertz model, which experts believed was most appropriate, suggested that more than half of the ELIANA patients treated with tisagenlecleucel will survive up to 5 years. Expert estimates at 24 months were validated by longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an example of how expert opinion can be elicited and synthesized with observed survival data using a transparent and formal procedure, capturing expert uncertainty, and ensuring projected long-term survival is clinically plausible.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Pharmacokinetics of Benznidazole in the Treatment of Chagas Disease.

Chagas disease is a neglected parasitic illness affecting approximately 8 million people, predominantly in Latin America. Benznidazole is the drug of choice for treatment, although its availability has been limited. A paucity of knowledge of the pharmacokinetic properties of this drug has contributed to its limited availability in several jurisdictions. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic literature review and a Bayesian meta-analysis of pharmacokinetic studies to improve estimates of the basic pharmacokinetic properties of benznidazole. A systematic search of the Embase, Medline, LILACS, and SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online) databases was conducted. Eligible studies reported patient-level data from single-100-mg-dose pharmacokinetic evaluations of benznidazole in adults or otherwise provided data relevant to the estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters which could be derived from such studies. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used for analysis. Secondary data (i.e., data from studies that did not include patient-level, single-100-mg-dose data) were used for the generation of empirical priors for the Bayesian analysis. The systematic search identified nine studies for inclusion. Nine pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated, including the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), the maximum concentration of drug in plasma (Cmax), the time to Cmax, the elimination rate constant (kel), the absorption rate constant (Ka), the absorption and elimination half-lives, the apparent oral clearance, and the apparent oral volume of distribution. The results showed consistency across studies. AUC and Cmax were 51.31 mg · h/liter (95% credible interval [CrI], 45.01, 60.28 mg · h/liter) and 2.19 mg/liter (95% CrI, 2.06, 2.33 mg/liter), respectively. Ka and kel were 1.16 h-1 (95% CrI, 0.59, 1.76 h-1) and 0.052 h-1 (95% CrI, 0.045, 0.059 h-1), respectively, with the corresponding absorption and elimination half-lives being 0.60 h (95% CrI, 0.38, 1.11 h) and 13.27 h (95% CrI, 11.79, 15.42 h), respectively. The oral clearance and volume of distribution were 2.04 liters/h (95% CrI, 1.77, 2.32 liters/h) and 39.19 liters (95% CrI, 36.58, 42.17 liters), respectively. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to improve the estimates of the standard pharmacokinetic parameters of benznidazole. These data can inform clinicians and policy makers as access to this drug increases.

Care delivery in youth with type 2 diabetes - are we meeting clinical practice guidelines?

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate high rates of treatment failure and early onset diabetes-related complications in youth-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to describe the quality of care provided to children and youth with T2D. METHODS: This prospective cohort study used administrative datasets to describe individuals aged 10-24 yr diagnosed with T2D at <20 yr of age (488 individuals; 2111 person-years). The primary outcome was being 'at goal' for adherence to Canadian clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). This was defined as having either optimal [three diabetes-related physician visits/year, three hemoglobin A1C (A1C) tests/year, and all recommended screening tests for complications (i.e., retinopathy, nephropathy)] or good (two diabetes-related physician visits/year, two A1C tests/year, and at least two screening tests) adherence to CPGs. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression modeling were used. RESULTS: Sixty eight percentage person-years had poor adherence to CPGs (<2 physician visits and A1c tests/year and no screening tests). Only 29% and 25% were at goal for adherence in the 15-19 and 20-24 yr age groups, respectively. There was a 52% decreased odds of being at goal for adherence 4 yr after diagnosis of T2D (p < 0.001). For every year increase in age at diagnosis, there was a 5% decreased odds of being at goal (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Youth with T2D are not receiving high quality care, and older youth and young adults are particularly at risk. Future research is needed to understand the effectiveness of care in the context of poor adherence as well as patient, physician, and health system factors that might improve adherence.

Adherence to clinical practice guidelines in the management of children, youth, and young adults with type 1 diabetes--a prospective population cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe adherence to clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of childhood type 1 diabetes and identify associated patient and system level factors. STUDY DESIGN: This prospective cohort study used population-based administrative data to describe individuals aged 1-24 years who had been diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at <20 years of age (1472 unique individuals and 5883 person-years over a 7-year period) living in British Columbia, Canada. The outcome measure was proportion 'at goal,' which was defined as having optimal adherence (3 diabetes-related physician visits/year, 3 hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) tests/year, 1 glucagon prescription dispensed/year, and appropriate screening for diabetes-related comorbidity [ie, hypothyroidism] and complications [ie, retinopathy and nephropathy]), or good adherence to guidelines (2 diabetes-related physician visits/year, 2 HbA1c tests/year, and appropriate screening for diabetes-related comorbidity and complications). Statistical methods included descriptive statistics and logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Fifty-four percent person-years had poor adherence to guidelines (<2 diabetes-related physician visits and HbA1c tests/year) and 7.4% had optimal adherence. The proportion of person-years at goal was higher in females vs males (41.0% vs 37.6%; P = .007). Individuals 4-years post-diagnosis of diabetes were 78% less likely to be at goal compared with the year of diagnosis (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment of pediatric type 1 diabetes likely does not meet national and international standards. Future studies should explore facilitators and barriers to adherence to guidelines among health care providers, patients, and families, and whether adherence to guidelines is associated with glycemic control.

Cardiac ischemia in patients with septic shock randomized to vasopressin or norepinephrine.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiac troponins are sensitive and specific biomarkers of myocardial necrosis. We evaluated troponin, CK, and ECG abnormalities in patients with septic shock and compared the effect of vasopressin (VP) versus norepinephrine (NE) on troponin, CK, and ECGs. METHODS: This was a prospective substudy of a randomized trial. Adults with septic shock randomly received, blinded, a low-dose infusion of VP (0.01 to 0.03 U/min) or NE (5 to 15 µg/min) in addition to open-label vasopressors, titrated to maintain a mean blood pressure of 65 to 75 mm Hg. Troponin I/T, CK, and CK-MB were measured, and 12-lead ECGs were recorded before study drug, and 6 hours, 2 days, and 4 days after study-drug initiation. Two physician readers, blinded to patient data and drug, independently interpreted ECGs. RESULTS: We enrolled 121 patients (median age, 63.9 years (interquartile range (IQR), 51.1 to 75.3), mean APACHE II 28.6 (SD 7.7)): 65 in the VP group and 56 in the NE group. At the four time points, 26%, 36%, 32%, and 21% of patients had troponin elevations, respectively. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were similar between patients with positive versus negative troponin levels. Troponin and CK levels and rates of ischemic ECG changes were similar in the VP and the NE groups. In multivariable analysis, only APACHE II was associated with 28-day mortality (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.14; P=0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Troponin elevation is common in adults with septic shock. We observed no significant differences in troponin, CK, and ECGs in patients treated with vasopressin and norepinephrine. Troponin elevation was not an independent predictor of mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-trials.com ISRCTN94845869.

Correlation Between Early Time-to-Event Outcomes and Overall Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Overall survival (OS) is the most patient-relevant outcome in oncology; however, in early cancers, large sample sizes and extended follow-up durations are needed to detect statistically significant differences in OS between interventions. Use of early time-to-event outcomes as surrogates for OS can help facilitate faster approval of cancer therapies. In locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LA-HNSCC), event-free survival (EFS) was previously evaluated as a surrogate outcome (Michiels 2009) and demonstrated a strong correlation with OS. The current study aimed to further assess the correlation between EFS and OS in LA-HNSCC using an updated systematic literature review (SLR) focusing on patients receiving definitive chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods: An SLR was conducted on May 27, 2021 to identify randomized controlled trials assessing radiotherapy alone or CRT in the target population. Studies assessing CRT and reporting hazard ratios (HRs) or Kaplan-Meier data for OS and EFS were eligible for the analysis. CRT included any systemic treatments administered concurrently or sequentially with radiation therapy. Trial-level EFS/OS correlations were assessed using regression models, and the relationship strength was measured with Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Correlations were assessed across all CRT trials and in trial subsets assessing concurrent CRT, sequential CRT, RT+cisplatin, targeted therapies and intensity-modulated RT. Subgroup analysis was conducted among trials with similar EFS definitions (i.e. EFS including disease progression and/or death as events) and longer length of follow-up (i.e.≥ 5 years). Results: The SLR identified 149 trials of which 31 were included in the analysis. A strong correlation between EFS and OS was observed in the overall analysis of all CRT trials (R=0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.93). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analyses of trials assessing concurrent CRT (R=0.88), sequential CRT (R=0.83), RT+cisplatin (R=0.82), targeted therapies (R=0.83) and intensity-modulated RT (R=0.86), as well as in trials with similar EFS definitions (R=0.87), with longer follow-up (R=0.81). Conclusion: EFS was strongly correlated with OS in this trial-level analysis. Future research using individual patient-level data can further investigate if EFS could be considered a suitable early clinical endpoint for evaluation of CRT regimens in LA-HNSCC patients receiving definitive CRT.

Indirect treatment comparison of idecabtagene vicleucel versus conventional care in triple-class exposed multiple myeloma.

Aim: To compare the efficacy of idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) versus conventional care (CC) in triple-class exposed relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) patients. Patients & methods: A matching-adjusted indirect comparison was conducted using individual patient-level data from the pivotal, phase II, single-arm KarMMa trial (NCT03361748) and aggregate-level data from MAMMOTH, the largest independent observational study of CC in heavily pretreated RRMM patients. Results: Ide-cel improved overall response rate (odds ratio: 5.30; 95% CI: 2.96-9.51), progression-free survival (hazard ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.36-0.70) and overall survival (hazard ratio: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.25-0.56) versus CC. Conclusion: These results suggest ide-cel offers improvements in clinical outcomes relative to CC in this heavily pretreated RRMM population.

Vasopressin versus norepinephrine infusion in patients with septic shock.

BACKGROUND: Vasopressin is commonly used as an adjunct to catecholamines to support blood pressure in refractory septic shock, but its effect on mortality is unknown. We hypothesized that low-dose vasopressin as compared with norepinephrine would decrease mortality among patients with septic shock who were being treated with conventional (catecholamine) vasopressors. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial, we assigned patients who had septic shock and were receiving a minimum of 5 microg of norepinephrine per minute to receive either low-dose vasopressin (0.01 to 0.03 U per minute) or norepinephrine (5 to 15 microg per minute) in addition to open-label vasopressors. All vasopressor infusions were titrated and tapered according to protocols to maintain a target blood pressure. The primary end point was the mortality rate 28 days after the start of infusions. RESULTS: A total of 778 patients underwent randomization, were infused with the study drug (396 patients received vasopressin, and 382 norepinephrine), and were included in the analysis. There was no significant difference between the vasopressin and norepinephrine groups in the 28-day mortality rate (35.4% and 39.3%, respectively; P=0.26) or in 90-day mortality (43.9% and 49.6%, respectively; P=0.11). There were no significant differences in the overall rates of serious adverse events (10.3% and 10.5%, respectively; P=1.00). In the prospectively defined stratum of less severe septic shock, the mortality rate was lower in the vasopressin group than in the norepinephrine group at 28 days (26.5% vs. 35.7%, P=0.05); in the stratum of more severe septic shock, there was no significant difference in 28-day mortality (44.0% and 42.5%, respectively; P=0.76). A test for heterogeneity between these two study strata was not significant (P=0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Low-dose vasopressin did not reduce mortality rates as compared with norepinephrine among patients with septic shock who were treated with catecholamine vasopressors. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN94845869 [controlled-trials.com].).

Agreement in electrocardiogram interpretation in patients with septic shock.

OBJECTIVE: The reliability of electrocardiogram interpretation to diagnose myocardial ischemia in critically ill patients is unclear. In adults with septic shock, we assessed intra- and inter-rater agreement of electrocardiogram interpretation, and the effect of knowledge of troponin values on these interpretations. DESIGN: Prospective substudy of a randomized trial of vasopressin vs. norepinephrine in septic shock. SETTING: Nine Canadian intensive care units. PATIENTS: Adults with septic shock requiring at least 5 µg/min of norepinephrine for 6 hrs. INTERVENTIONS: Twelve-lead electrocardiograms were recorded before study drug, and 6 hrs, 2 days, and 4 days after study drug initiation. MEASUREMENTS: Two physician readers, blinded to patient data and group, independently interpreted electrocardiograms on three occasions (first two readings were blinded to patient data; third reading was unblinded to troponin). To calibrate and refine definitions, both readers initially reviewed 25 trial electrocardiograms representing normal to abnormal. Cohen's Kappa and the φ statistic were used to analyze intra- and inter-rater agreement. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-one patients (62.2 ± 16.5 yrs, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II 28.6 ± 7.7) had 373 electrocardiograms. Blinded to troponin, readers 1 and 2 interpreted 46.4% and 30.0% of electrocardiograms as normal, and 15.3% and 12.3% as ischemic, respectively. Intrarater agreement was moderate for overall ischemia (κ 0.54 and 0.58), moderate/good for "normal" (κ 0.69 and 0.55), fair to good for specific signs of ischemia (ST elevation, T inversion, and Q waves, reader 1 κ 0.40 to 0.69; reader 2 κ 0.56 to 0.70); and good/very good for atrial arrhythmias (κ 0.84 and 0.79) and bundle branch block (κ 0.88 and 0.79). Inter-rater agreement was fair for ischemia (κ 0.29), moderate for ST elevation (κ 0.48), T inversion (κ 0.52), and Q waves (κ 0.44), good for bundle branch block (κ 0.78), and very good for atrial arrhythmias (κ 0.83). Inter-rater agreement for ischemia improved from fair to moderate (κ 0.52, p = .028) when unblinded to troponin. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with septic shock, inter-rater agreement of electrocardiogram interpretation for myocardial ischemia was fair, and improved with troponin knowledge.

Agalsidase beta treatment slows estimated glomerular filtration rate loss in classic Fabry disease patients: results from an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fabry disease is a rare, X-linked genetic disorder that, if untreated in patients with the Classic phenotype, often progresses to end-stage kidney disease. This meta-analysis determined the effect of agalsidase beta on loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the Classic phenotype using an expansive evidence base of individual patient-level data. METHODS: The evidence base included four Sanofi-Genzyme studies and six studies from a systematic literature review. These were restricted to Classic Fabry patients meeting the eligibility criteria from Phases III and IV agalsidase beta trials, including 315 patients (161 treated). Linear regression was first used to model annual change in eGFR for each patient and the resulting annualized eGFR slopes were modelled with treatment and covariates using quantile regression. These results were then used to estimate median annualized eGFR change in agalsidase beta treated versus untreated groups. RESULTS: Imbalances across treatment groups were found in baseline age, sex and proteinuria, but not in the use of renin-angiotensin system blockers. The adjusted model suggests that treated (agalsidase beta) patients experienced a slower median eGFR decrease [2.46 mL/min/1.73 m2/year slower; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-4.29; P = 0.0087] than comparable untreated patients. The median eGFR decrease was 2.64 mL/min/1.73 m2/year slower (95% CI 0.53-4.78; P = 0.0141) in treated Classic males. CONCLUSIONS: Using an expansive evidence base and robust modelling approach, these data indicate that agalsidase beta-treated patients with the Classic phenotype conserve their renal function better than untreated patients.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab for treatment of advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Most cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (CSCCs) can be treated with surgical excision or radiation; however, approximately 1% of patients develop advanced disease. In 2018, the FDA approved cemiplimab-rwlc as the first programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody for the treatment of patients with metastatic CSCC or locally advanced CSCC who are not candidates for curative surgery or curative radiation. In June 2020, pembrolizumab, another PD-1 monoclonal antibody, was approved for the treatment of patients with recurrent or metastatic CSCC who are not candidates for curative surgery or radiation. We previously reported on the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs historical standard of care for the treatment of advanced CSCC from a US perspective. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab for patients with advanced CSCC in the United States. METHODS: A "partitioned survival" framework was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab. Clinical inputs were based on the most recent data cut of the phase 2 trials for cemiplimab (EMPOWER-CSCC-1; NCT02760498) and pembrolizumab (KEYNOTE-629). Progression-free survival and overall survival were extrapolated using parametric models until all patients had progressed or died. Health state utilities were derived from data collected in the EMPOWER-CSCC-1 trial. Costs included drug acquisition, drug administration, disease management, terminal care, and adverse events and were based on published 2020 US list prices. To assess model uncertainty, 1-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted, alongside scenario analyses evaluating key modeling assumptions. RESULTS: In the base case, cemiplimab resulted in an incremental gain of 3.44 life-years (discounted) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $130,329 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) vs pembrolizumab. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY, PSA indicated a 71% probability that cemiplimab is cost-effective when compared with pembrolizumab. Scenario analysis resulted in ICERs ranging from $115,909 to $187,374. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that cemiplimab is a cost-effective treatment for patients with advanced CSCC, compared with pembrolizumab. These results should be interpreted cautiously in the absence of head-to-head trials; however, in the absence of such data, these results can be used to inform health care decisions over resource allocation. DISCLOSURES: This study was supported by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., and Sanofi. Paul, Cope, Keeping, Mojebi, and Ayers are employees of PRECISIONheor, which received funding to produce this work. Chen, Kuznik, and Xu are employees and stockholders of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Sasane is an employee and stockholder of Sanofi, Inc. Konidaris, Atsou, and Guyot are employees of Sanofi, Inc. The authors were responsible for all content and editorial decisions and received no honoraria related to the development of this publication.

Matching adjusted indirect comparisons of efficacy outcomes for idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) versus selinexor + dexamethasone and belantamab mafodotin in relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma.

Idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121), a chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, has been investigated in patients with relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) who have received an immunomodulatory drug, proteasome inhibitor, and anti-CD38 antibody in the single-arm phase 2 KarMMa clinical trial. Two therapies with distinct mechanisms of action - selinexor plus dexamethasone (Sd) and belantamab mafodotin (BM) - are currently approved in the United States for heavily pretreated patients, including those who are triple-class refractory. To compare ide-cel versus Sd and ide-cel versus BM, matching-adjusted indirect comparisons were performed. Ide-cel extended progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) versus both Sd and BM (hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI)). PFS: ide-cel versus Sd, 0.46; 0.28-0.75; ide-cel versus BM, 0.45; 0.27-0.77. OS: ide-cel versus Sd, 0.23; 0.13-0.42; ide-cel versus BM, 0.35; 0.14-0.87. These results suggest ide-cel offers clinically meaningful improvements over currently approved regimens for patients with heavily pretreated RRMM.

Comparative effectiveness of nivolumab versus clinical practice for advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer.

Aim: To determine the effectiveness of nivolumab compared with routine clinical practice (RCP) for patients with gastric or gastroesophageal cancer refractory to, or intolerant of, two or more previous regimens, using real-world electronic patient records from a US population, a single-arm trial (CheckMate 032) and a randomized controlled trial in an Asian setting (ATTRACTION-2). Materials & methods: A simulated treatment comparison was conducted to predict overall survival for patients treated with nivolumab compared with RCP in the USA. Results: Results of the indirect simulated treatment comparison suggest that nivolumab is associated with a 50% reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality relative to RCP (Hazard ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.68). Conclusion: The survival benefit of nivolumab may extend more generally to the USA.

Network meta-analysis of pembrolizumab as monotherapy and in combination with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma / Metanálise em rede comparativa de pembrolizumabe como monoterapia e em combinação com quimioterapia para tratamento de primeira linha de carcinoma de células escamosas da cabeça e pescoço recorrente ou metastático

Pembrolizumab monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy is approved as first-line treatment in recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) based on improved overall survival (OS) versus EXTREME regimen in the KEYNOTE-048 trial. The clinical outcomes of pembrolizumab were compared with other recommended first-line treatments in R/M HNSCC in this study through a Bayesian network meta-analysis. A systematic literature review was conducted in July 2022, from which six trials that matched the KEYNOTE-048 patient eligibility criteria were included in the network. The OS and progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes were compared in the approved pembrolizumab indication (i.e., total population for pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy and combined positive score [CPS] ≥ 1 population for pembrolizumab monotherapy). A significant OS improvement was observed for pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy and pembrolizumab monotherapy versus EXTREME regimen (hazard ratio, 95% credible interval: 0.72, 0.60-0.86; 0.73, 0.60-0.88), platinum+5- FU (0.58, 0.43-0.76; 0.58, 0.44-0.78), and platinum+paclitaxel (0.53, 0.35-0.79; 0.53, 0.35-0.81), respectively. A non-significant numeric trend in OS improvement was observed versus the TPEx regimen. PFS was comparable with most first-line treatments and was improved versus platinum+5-FU (0.48, 0.36-0.64; 0.59, 0.45-0.79). Additional analyses in higher CPS subgroups also showed consistent results. Overall, our study results showed an improvement in OS outcomes versus alternative first-line treatments, consistent with the findings of the KEYNOTE-048 trial. These data support using pembrolizumab as a suitable firstline treatment option in R/M HNSCC.

Pembrolizumabe em monoterapia ou em combinação com quimioterapia é aprovado como tratamento de primeira linha em carcinoma de células escamosas recorrente/metastático de cabeça e pescoço (CECCP R/M) com base na melhora da sobrevida global (OS), em comparação com o esquema EXTREME no estudo KEYNOTE-048. Esse estudo comparou os resultados clínicos de pembrolizumabe com outros tratamentos recomendados de primeira linha em CECCP R/M por meio de uma metanálise de rede bayesiana. Uma revisão sistemática da literatura foi conduzida em julho de 2022, a partir da qual seis ensaios clínicos que atendiam aos critérios de elegibilidade de pacientes do KEYNOTE-048 foram incluídos na rede. Os desfechos de OS e sobrevida livre de progressão (PFS) foram comparados na indicação de pembrolizumabe (população total para pembrolizumabe em combinação com quimioterapia e população com escore positivo combinado [CPS] ≥ 1 em monoterapia com pembrolizumabe). Foi observada melhora significativa na OS para pembrolizumabe em combinação com quimioterapia e monoterapia com pembrolizumabe versus o esquema EXTREME (razão de risco, intervalo de confiança de 95%: 0,72, 0,60-0,86; 0,73, 0,60-0,88), platina+5-FU (0,58, 0,43-0,76; 0,58, 0,44-0,78) e platina+paclitaxel (0,53, 0,35-0,79; 0,53, 0,35-0,81), respectivamente. Uma tendência numérica não significativa de melhoria na OS foi observada em relação ao esquema TPEx. A PFS foi comparável com a maioria dos tratamentos de primeira linha e melhor em relação à platina+5-FU (0,48, 0,36-0,64; 0,59, 0,45-0,79). Análises adicionais em subgrupos com CPS mais elevado também mostraram resultados consistentes. No geral, os resultados de nosso estudo mostraram melhora nos desfechos de OS em comparação aos tratamentos de primeira linha alternativos, consistentes com os achados do estudo KEYNOTE-048. Esses dados apoiam o uso de pembrolizumabe como opção de tratamento em primeira linha em pacientes com CECCP R/M.

Indirect comparison of nivolumab ± ipilimumab (CheckMate 032) versus other treatments for recurrent small-cell lung cancer.

Aim: To estimate the comparative efficacy of nivolumab ± ipilimumab versus alternative treatments for small-cell lung cancer after at least one prior line of chemotherapy. Materials & methods: A systematic literature review identified six randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that could be connected in a network. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves from these RCTs were synthesized using network meta-analysis models. Aggregate-level matching was used to connect CheckMate 032 to the RCTs. Results: CheckMate 032 was connected to the network by Amrubicin Clinical Trial-1. Nivolumab ± ipilimumab had a more durable tumor response and more favorable long-term survival versus topotecan via intravenous and versus amrubicin. Conclusion: Compared with chemotherapies for recurrent small-cell lung cancer, nivolumab ± ipilimumab improves response duration, which may translate to long-term survival benefits.