Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan.

Estuaries are dynamic environments which are driven by various natural processes like river discharge, tides, waves, influx of saline water and sediments, etc. These ecosystems are the most sensitive to sea level rise and fluctuations in river discharge associated with climate change. A direct response of sea level rise and river discharge can be observed in the water level of estuaries. However, existing models have not considered these parameters for forecasting water level. This paper focuses on developing a water level forecast model for the Chikugo River estuary in Japan using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous inputs (NARX Model). NARX neural network was used to do the one-step-ahead prediction of water level considering the various parameters that can very well be influenced by climate change: previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Accordingly, three models were developed: (i) Model I considering previous water level; (ii) Model II additionally considering river discharge; and (iii) Model III additionally considering salinity. All the models showed appreciable performance in forecasting the water level. Model III had the best correlation with the water level with a cross-correlation value of 0.6030, while the river discharge had only a cross-correlation of 0.1113 indicating that the Chikugo River estuary is tide-dominated. The model was trained using different combinations of available data - previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Cross-correlation results showed a better correlation between water level and salinity than various other combinations trained. Therefore, tidal intrusion influences the water level in the estuary, thereby depicting that sea level rise can affect the water level, and its influence can be well predicted by the developed model. The water level significantly affects the flora and fauna and the predictability of future estuarine floods can help in taking necessary mitigation strategies.

Factors contributing to the minimum water column stability and timing of the winter turnover in the Ogouchi reservoir.

Turnover in lakes and reservoirs causes circulation in the water column from the bottom to the surface when the water column stability becomes low. Previous studies commonly mentioned that turnover occurs when stratification indices become small, but the threshold is rarely discussed. While turnover phenomena have been extensively studied by evaluating changes in bottom dissolved oxygen (DO), the relationship between the disappearance of hypoxia and water temperature indices has not been determined. This study focused on the factors influencing the minimum thermal gradient (TG) and Schmidt Stability Index (SSI), and the timing of turnover events using DO as an indicator of mixing in the Ogouchi reservoir from 1992 to 2001. The results showed that the occurrence of minimum TG and SSI is mainly driven by inflow retention time and average maximum wind speed. Moreover, minimum air temperature and outflow retention time have few contributions to minimum SSI. It was found that 7 out of 10 years exhibited full winter turnover, while the remaining years showed incomplete mixing with persistent hypoxia at the reservoir bottom. This study identifies four cases based on onset thresholds of 0.0035 °C m-1 for TG and 30 J m-2 for SSI to explain turnover event: Case 1: an ideal state with stratification indices below the threshold, resulting in the disappearance of hypoxia; Case 2: indices above the threshold sustain hypoxia; Case 3: an irregular state where the indices exceed the threshold, yet hypoxia disappears; and Case 4: an unexpected persistence of hypoxia despite being below the threshold. The majority of the years (70 percent) were explained by thresholds. The multiple regression analysis indicated the importance of wind speed on the turnover event. Therefore, the effect of wind shear was analyzed for 30 percent of the years that cannot be explained by thresholds (cases 3 and 4). Case 3 shows turnover occurrence due to strong accumulated wind shear, despite exceeding thresholds. Conversely, Case 4 reveals weak wind shear preventing bottom water upwelling, even below thresholds. In conclusion, the precise TG and SSI thresholds for the onset of turnover event were determined using DO data. The thresholds explained the occurrence and non-occurrence of turnover event in most of the years and wind speed clarified unexplained cases by thresholds. The presented method successfully evaluated the timing of turnover and can be applicable elsewhere.

Phytoplankton habitats and size distribution during a neap-spring transition in the highly turbid macrotidal Chikugo River estuary.

The effect of neap-spring transition on the spatial and temporal changes in the cell size distribution of different phytoplankton species and their size-based habitats distribution were investigated in the highly turbid macrotidal Chikugo River estuary, Japan in 2021. The estuarine mixing changed from stratified to well-mixed over the transition from neap to spring tides and saltwater (1-5) intruded until 17 km with negligible effect from river discharge. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was low (<40 mg L-1) during neap tide and highest (1000 mg L-1) during spring tide associated with strong mixing, which led to the formation of an estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) zone between 8 and 12 km. A total of 159 phytoplankton species were identified in the estuary and are classified into seven groups. The diatoms (freshwater and marine habitats) were found as significant groups (79-86 %). Principal component analysis (PCA) results showed that salinity (p < 0.05) and mixing (p < 0.05) were the major controlling factors in the phytoplankton habitats distribution. The diatoms abundance started to increase from neap tide and reached the maximum abundance (174.714 cells/mL) two days after neap tide, then decreased towards spring tide (69.257 cells/mL). Additionally, the cell sizes of dominant diatoms species (Skeletonema costatum and Nitzschia acicularis) increased from neap to intermediate tides and continued increasing until the spring tide. Spatially, the abundance of diatoms was lower in the middle estuary (67-86 cells/mL) than in other parts because of ETM formation, although larger size distribution occurred. This study concludes that the abundance and size distribution of phytoplankton are influenced by estuarine mixing, and the neap-spring transition phase is more essential for phytoplankton growth than individual neap and spring tides in tide-dominated estuaries. Furthermore, size-increasing patterns play an important role in sustaining their survival strategy under the strong turbulent conditions in addition to saltwater intrusion and ETM.

Erosion and sedimentation pattern of fine sediments and its physical characteristics in a macrotidal estuary.

The seasonal and fortnightly erosion and sedimentation pattern as well as the bonding characteristics of the mud deposit at the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) zone of the macrotidal Chikugo River estuarine channel were studied during 2005-2008 using the periodical topographic surveys and mud sampling along with continuous monitoring of water level, turbidity and flow velocity. The results revealed that the estuary was influenced by the tidal forcing during the dry season. This tidal forcing accelerated the net landward sediment transport and sedimentation takes place in the estuarine channel. On the contrary, the river discharge dominated the estuary during the rainy season which eroded those mud deposit in the estuarine channel and exported to the downstream and the sandy base layer appeared at the bottom. During the dry season, a mud deposit of 1.5-1.8 m thick was formed which was characterized by 90% of mud (fine silt and clay) and 10% of fine sand. The high viscosity ratio and loss on ignition of this mud deposit revealed that its consolidation begins at the early stages of deposition due to thixotropy and the presence of organic matter. This consolidation process in the natural environment will be several times higher than that of the disturbed mud, which will help the sediment surface to maintain stability against erosion even at high velocities. Moreover, the consolidation of the mud deposit has a strong impact on the seasonal changes in estuarine morphology other than external forcing such as river discharge, tides, wind and availability of sediments.

Seasonal morphodynamic evolution in a meandering channel of a macrotidal estuary.

The spatio-temporal morphodynamics in relation to the fortnightly tidal variations and seasonal river discharge variations in a meandering estuarine channel were investigated. Intensive topographic surveys (longitudinal and transverse) every 3-4 months using a digital sonar system equipped with a differential global positioning system and continuous monitoring of salinity and turbidity with moored instruments were carried out during 2009-2012 in the upstream section of the highly turbid macrotidal Chikugo River estuary, Japan. The results revealed that the tidal flow dominated in the estuary for most of the year except for the rainy season in which river flow dominates. During the low flow season, tidally induced net upward sediment transport dominates and deposition takes place in the upstream section especially in the inner part of the meander. It contributes towards the strengthening of the existing estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) in the upstream section of the estuary, and the channel capacity reduced gradually during this period. However, large flood events led to the breakdown of this ETM zone in the upstream during the rainy season and exported the sediments to the downstream tidal flat which resulted in the rapid increase of channel capacity. This further exhibited that the ETM zone was migrated to the downstream part of the estuary during the rainy season. There were significant differences in the seasonal trends of morphological evolution in the estuary which further greatly influenced the channel capacity. The drastic changes in channel morphology due to the sediment export by the high river flow during the flood season was approximately recovered through the sediment import by the fortnightly tidal cycle during the dry season over a seasonal basis. The study concludes that the morphological changes in the tide dominated estuaries are strongly influenced by the fortnightly tidal variations as well as the seasonal river discharge variations.