Subclinical cardiovascular disease in HIV controller and long-term nonprogressor populations.

OBJECTIVES: Elite controllers (ECs), viraemic controllers (VCs), and long-term nonprogressors (LTNPs) control HIV viral replication or maintain CD4 T-cell counts without antiretroviral therapy, but may have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk compared to HIV-uninfected persons. We evaluated subclinical carotid and coronary atherosclerosis and inflammatory biomarker levels among HIV controllers, LTNPs and noncontrollers and HIV-uninfected individuals in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) and the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). METHODS: We measured carotid plaque presence and common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) in 1729 women and 1308 men, and the presence of coronary artery calcium and plaque in a subgroup of men. Associations between HIV control category and carotid and coronary plaque prevalences were assessed by multivariable regression analyses adjusting for demographics and CVD risk factors. Serum inflammatory biomarker concentrations [soluble CD163 (sCD163), soluble CD14 (sCD14), galectin-3 (Gal-3), galectin-3 binding protein (Gal-3BP) and interleukin (IL)-6] were measured and associations with HIV control category assessed. RESULTS: We included 135 HIV controllers (30 ECs) and 135 LTNPs in the study. Carotid plaque prevalence and carotid IMT were similar in HIV controllers, LTNPs and HIV-uninfected individuals. HIV controllers and LTNPs had lower prevalences of carotid plaque compared to viraemic HIV-infected individuals. The prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis was similar in HIV controllers/LTNPs compared to HIV-uninfected and viraemic HIV-infected men. Controllers and LTNPs had higher concentrations of sCD163 and sCD14 compared to HIV-uninfected persons. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical CVD was similar in HIV controllers, LTNPs and HIV-uninfected individuals despite elevated levels of some inflammatory biomarkers. Future studies of HIV controllers and LTNPs are needed to characterize the risk of CVD among HIV-infected persons.

Evaluating the association of single-nucleotide polymorphisms with tenofovir exposure in a diverse prospective cohort of women living with HIV.

Higher exposure to tenofovir (TFV) increases the risk for kidney function decline, but the impact of genetic factors on TFV exposure is largely unknown. We investigated whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, n=211) in 12 genes are potentially involved in TFV exposure. Participants (n=91) from the Women's Interagency HIV Study, underwent a 24 h intensive pharmacokinetic sampling of TFV after witnessed dose and TFV area under the time-concentration curves (AUCs) were calculated for each participant. SNPs were assayed using a combination of array genotyping and Sanger sequencing. Linear regression models were applied to logarithmically transformed AUC. Those SNPs that met an a priori threshold of P<0.001 were considered statistically associated with TFV AUC. ABCG2 SNP rs2231142 was associated with TFV AUC with rare allele carriers displaying 1.51-fold increase in TFV AUC (95% confidence interval: 1.26, 1.81; P=1.7 × 10-5). We present evidence of a moderately strong effect of the rs2231142 SNP in ABCG2 on a 24 h TFV AUC.

Cefazolin versus Nafcillin for Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus aureus Bloodstream Infection in a California Tertiary Medical Center.

Recent observational studies have suggested possible reductions in mortality in patients receiving cefazolin versus antistaphylococcal penicillins. We examined 90-day mortality in patients receiving cefazolin compared to nafcillin for methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) bloodstream infection (BSI). We identified persons with MSSA BSI admitted to San Francisco General Hospital from January 2008 to July 2013 through a hospital-wide infection surveillance system and confirmed 90-day mortality using U.S. national vital registries. We included persons receiving cefazolin or nafcillin as the predominant intravenous antimicrobial agent; all participants received inpatient Infectious Diseases service consultation. We estimated the association between receipt of cefazolin and 90-day risk of death by multivariate logistic regression, including a propensity score for receiving cefazolin as the second predictor. Of 230 MSSA BSI cases, 30 received nafcillin and 70 received cefazolin as the predominant antimicrobial; 10 died within 90 days, 5 from each group. Unadjusted analysis showed substantial but not statistically significant reduced odds of death in those receiving cefazolin (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10 to 1.44). Multivariate analysis with propensity scores found a similar adjusted odds ratio (0.40; 95% CI, 0.09 to 1.74; P = 0.22). We found a large reduction in 90-day mortality in those receiving cefazolin compared to nafcillin for MSSA BSI, but this finding was not statistically significant. The magnitude of effect seen in this and other studies justifies further study.

Impact of gender and menopausal status on metabolic parameters in chronic hepatitis C infection.

Hepatitis C infection (HCV) and menopause are associated with insulin resistance (IR), and IR accelerates HCV-induced liver disease. The relationship between menopause and IR has not been studied in this population. This study aimed to assess the impact of menopause on IR and metabolic syndrome in HCV. One hundred and three (69 men, 16 premenopausal, 18 postmenopausal women) noncirrhotic, nondiabetic HCV-infected adults underwent IR measurement via steady-state plasma glucose during a 240-min insulin suppression test. Metabolic syndrome was defined by at least three of five standard laboratory/clinical criteria. The patient characteristics were as follows: mean age 48 years, waist circumference 94.4 ± 12.4 cm and 37.9% Caucasian. SSPG was higher in postmenopausal than premenopausal women or men (mean difference 18, 95% CI -41 to 76 and 35, 95% CI -3 to 72 mg/dL; respectively). After adjusting for waist circumference, female gender, nonwhite race and triglycerides were positively associated and high-density lipoprotein negatively associated with steady-state plasma glucose. Compared to men, both pre- (Coef 48, 95% CI 12-84) and postmenopausal women (Coef 49, 95% CI 17-82) had higher steady-state plasma glucose. Compared to premenopausal women, men (OR 2.0, 95% CI 0.38-10.2) and postmenopausal women (OR 2.9, 95% CI 0.46-18.8) had higher odds of metabolic syndrome, but this was statistically nonsignificant. Both liver inflammation (OR 7.9) and nonwhite race (OR 6.9) were associated with metabolic syndrome. We conclude that women are at inc-reased risk for IR in HCV. There may also be an increased risk of metabolic syndrome postmenopause. Along with lifestyle modification and weight loss, women with metabolic abnormalities represent an especially at-risk group warranting HCV treatment to prevent adverse metabolic outcomes.

The association of adiposity with kidney function decline among HIV-infected adults: findings from the Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Changes in HIV Infection (FRAM) study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to investigate the association of adiposity with longitudinal kidney function change in 544 HIV-infected persons in the Study of Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV infection (FRAM) cohort over 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: The regional distribution of muscle and adipose tissue was quantified by whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and total adiponectin and leptin levels were measured in serum. Kidney function was assessed using the estimated glomerular filtration rate from serum cystatin C (eGFRCys), obtained at baseline and follow-up. Rapid kidney function decline was defined as annual loss of eGFRCys ≥ 3 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as eGFRCys <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) . Multivariate regression analysis was adjusted for age, race, gender, glucose, antihypertensive use, serum albumin, baseline and change in HIV viral load. RESULTS: At baseline, mean age was 43 years, mean eGFRCys was 86 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , and 21% of patients had albuminuria. The mean (± standard deviation) eGFRCys decline was -0.11 ± 4.87 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year; 23% of participants had rapid kidney function decline, and 10% developed incident CKD. The lowest tertile of visceral adipose tissue and the highest tertile of adiponectin were both marginally associated with annual kidney function decline of -0.5 mL/min/1.73 m(2) each, but these associations were not statistically significant after adjustment. We found no statistically significant associations of MRI-measured regional adiposity or serum adipokines with rapid kidney function decline or incident CKD (all P-values>0.1 in adjusted models). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to findings in the general population, adiposity did not have a substantial association with longitudinal change in kidney function among HIV-infected persons.

Association of IFNL3 and IFNL4 polymorphisms with liver-related mortality in a multiracial cohort of HIV/HCV-coinfected women.

African Americans coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) have lower liver-related mortality than Caucasians and Hispanics. While genetic polymorphisms near the IFNL3 and IFNL4 genes explain a significant fraction of racial differences in several HCV-related outcomes, the impact of these variants on liver-related mortality has not been investigated. We conducted a cohort study of HIV/HCV-coinfected women followed in the multicentre, NIH-funded Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) to investigate whether 10 polymorphisms spanning the IFN-λ region were associated with liver-related mortality by dominant, recessive or additive genetic models. We also considered whether these polymorphisms contributed to previously reported differences in liver-related death by race/ethnicity (ascertained by self-report and ancestry informative markers). Among 794 coinfected women, there were 471 deaths including 55 liver-related deaths during up to 18 years of follow-up. On adjusted analysis, rs12980275 GG genotype compared to AG+AA hazards ratios [(HR) 0.36, 95% CI 0.14-0.90, P = 0.029] and rs8109886 AA genotype compared to CC+AC (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45-0.99, P = 0.047) were most strongly associated with liver-related death although these associations were no longer significant after adjusting for race/ethnicity (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.16-1.04, P = 0.060 and HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51-1.19, P = 0.25, respectively). African American women had persistently lower liver-related death independent of IFN-λ variants (HRs ≤ 0.44, P values ≤ 0.04). The lower risk of death among African American HIV/HCV-coinfected women is not explained by genetic variation in the IFN-λ region suggesting, that other genetic, behavioural and/or environmental factors may contribute to racial/ethnic differences in liver-related mortality.

Measuring TB drug levels in the hair in adults and children to monitor drug exposure and outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for anti-TB drugs in small hair samples may serve as a non-invasive tool to measure cumulative drug exposure and/or adherence, as these determine treatment success. We aimed to assess how well hair assays of TB drugs predict TB treatment outcomes.METHODS: A small thatch of hair, ~30 strands, was cut from the occipital region in adults and children from a prospective TB cohort in India. Isoniazid (INH), acetyl-INH and pyrazinamide (PZA) were extracted from the hair samples and quantified using liquid-chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The relationship between drug concentrations in hair and time to unfavourable outcomes was assessed using Cox-proportional hazards regression models.RESULTS: A two-fold increase in hair acetyl-INH concentrations in the 264 participants in our cohort with hair assays for TB drugs indicated a lower hazard of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes (aHR 0.67, 95%CI 0.44-1.02) and TB treatment failure (aHR 0.65, 95%CI 0.42-1.01). Higher summed concentrations (a summed measure of INH and acetyl-INH) indicated a lower hazard of treatment failure (aHR 0.69, 95%CI 0.45-1.05)CONCLUSION: Hair levels of INH and its metabolite may predict TB treatment outcomes, indicating the potential utility of this measure to assess and optimise TB treatment outcomes.

The onset location of multiple sclerosis predicts the location of subsequent relapses.

BACKGROUND: Demyelinating events in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) can involve several locations in the central nervous system. We sought to determine if initial clinical demyelinating event (IDE) location predicts subsequent clinical relapse locations in early RRMS. METHODS: We identified all RRMS patients from two large MS clinics who were seen within 1 year of disease onset. Logistic regression was performed with the outcome defined as the second or third exacerbation location and the predictor defined as IDE+/-second event location. RESULTS: 195 patients with at least two clinical exacerbations were identified. There was an increased odds of a patient's second relapse occurring in the spinal cord if the IDE was in the spinal cord (odds ratio (OR) = 3.79, 95% CI 2.06 to 7.00, p<0.001). There was more than a sixfold increase in the odds of a patient's second relapse occurring in the optic nerve if the IDE was in the optic nerve (OR = 6.18, 95% CI 2.90 to 13.18, p<0.001). These associations remained similar after adjusting for treatment and patient characteristics. If the IDE and second event were both in the same location (spinal cord, optic nerve or brainstem/cerebellum), the third event was likely to remain in that location. CONCLUSION: Patients with RRMS have relatively localised clinical relapses. It remains to be determined if genetic or biological processes are responsible for this pattern.

Do we truly see what we think we see? The role of cognitive bias in pathological interpretation.

In the histomorphological grading of prostate carcinoma, pathologists have regularly assigned comparable scores for the architectural Gleason and the now-obsolete nuclear World Health Organization (WHO) grading systems. Although both systems demonstrate good correspondence between grade and survival, they are based on fundamentally different biological criteria. We tested the hypothesis that this apparent concurrence between the two grading systems originates from an interpretation bias in the minds of diagnostic pathologists, rather than reflecting a biological reality. Three pathologists graded 178 prostatectomy specimens, assigning Gleason and WHO scores on glass slides and on digital images of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context. The results were analysed with respect to interdependencies among the grading systems, to tumour recurrence (PSA relapse > 0.1 ng/ml at 48 months) and robust nuclear morphometry, as assessed by computer-assisted image analysis. WHO and Gleason grades were strongly correlated (r = 0.82) and demonstrated identical prognostic power. However, WHO grades correlated poorly with nuclear morphology (r = 0.19). Grading of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context significantly improved accuracy for nuclear morphology (r = 0.55), but the prognostic power was virtually lost. In conclusion, the architectural organization of a tumour, which the pathologist cannot avoid noticing during initial slide viewing at low magnification, unwittingly influences the subsequent nuclear grade assignment. In our study, the prognostic power of the WHO grading system was dependent on visual assessment of tumour growth pattern. We demonstrate for the first time the influence a cognitive bias can have in the generation of an error in diagnostic pathology and highlight a considerable problem in histopathological tumour grading.

Predictors of the location of multiple sclerosis relapse.

BACKGROUND: While clinical relapses are the defining feature of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), their characteristics vary widely from patient to patient. This study sought to identify predictors of MS relapse location. Based on the current literature, two potential predictors were identified: treatment with interferon beta (IFNB) and location of previous relapse. METHODS: Patients with RRMS were identified from the UCSF MS Center database who underwent at least 3 months of treatment with IFNB or glatiramer acetate (GA). The relapse immediately preceding the initiation of treatment (pretreatment relapse) and the first relapse occurring after the initiation of treatment (on-treatment relapse) were coded as affecting the spinal cord (SC), optic nerve (ON), brainstem/cerebellum (BC) or cerebrum. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of on-treatment relapse location. RESULTS: The 134 IFNB and 56 GA patients did not differ in gender, race, age at symptom onset (30.3 years) or disease duration at the start of treatment (5.7 years). Patients with pretreatment SC relapses had increased odds of having on-treatment SC compared with non-SC relapses (OR 2.31, p = 0.013); the same tendency for localisation occurred with BC (OR 3.05, p = 0.013) and ON (OR 3.63, p = 0.011) relapses. Additionally, patients who relapsed on treatment had a higher SC (but not ON or BC) relapse risk when they were receiving IFNB compared with GA (OR 2.05, p = 0.041), independent of pretreatment relapse location. CONCLUSION: These results show a tendency for patients to have localised exacerbations, which could be mediated by genetic or immunological factors. In addition, and to be confirmed in subsequent studies, IFNB treatment may influence SC relapse risk.

Mortality associated with mode of presentation in the acquired immune deficiency syndrome.

A population-based survival study was done for all cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosed in the city of San Francisco through May 1983. Follow-up was obtained for 165 of 173 diagnosed cases. Median survival among 75 patients presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) alone was 21 months. Median survival among 90 patients presenting with opportunistic infections, primarily Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, was 9 months; survival at 21 months was zero. Survival among patients presenting with both KS and opportunistic infections was not statistically different from survival among patients presenting with opportunistic infections only. When cases were divided into those diagnosed before and after May 1982, there was no significant improvement in survival from diagnosis in the more recently diagnosed cohort.

Survival of patients with AIDS and cytomegalovirus disease treated with ganciclovir or foscarnet.

We reviewed the hospital charts of 168 patients with AIDS and cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease diagnosed at San Francisco General Hospital between July 1985 and October 1989. One hundred and thirty-three patients had CMV retinitis, 33 had CMV gastrointestinal disease, and two had CMV lung disease. We found a trend towards longer survival from time of CMV disease diagnosis in patients with more recent dates of diagnosis. The median survival of patients diagnosed with CMV disease prior to 30 September 1987 was 4 months, compared with 9 months for patients diagnosed after 30 September 1987 (P = 0.001). The relative hazard of death for patients with CMV retinitis who were initially treated with foscarnet was not significantly reduced compared to those initially treated with ganciclovir. Even after controlling for age at time of CMV diagnosis, time from index AIDS diagnosis, hemoglobin, absolute lymphocyte count, absolute neutrophil count and concurrent zidovudine therapy, the relative hazard for foscarnet-treated patients compared with ganciclovir-treated patients was 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.8).

HIV seroconversion in intravenous drug users in San Francisco, 1985-1990.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the HIV seroconversion rate, risk factors for seroconversion, and changes in risk behavior over time in intravenous drug users (IVDU) in San Francisco, 1985-1990. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: All methadone maintenance and 21-day methadone detoxification programs in San Francisco. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2351 heterosexual IVDU, of whom 681 were seronegative at first visit and seen at least twice ('repeaters'). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: HIV seroconversion rates, risk factors for seroconversion, and changes in behavior. RESULTS: The HIV seroconversion rate in repeaters was 1.9% per person-year (ppy) of follow-up [2.1% in women versus 1.7% in men (not significant); 4% in African Americans versus 1% in whites (P = 0.006); 3.9% ppy in the first third of the study, 1.2% in the second (P = 0.007), and 1.9% in the last (not significant)]. Risk factors for seroconversion were five or more sexual partners per year [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.6; P = 0.02], use of shooting gallery ever (HR = 2.9; P = 0.02), and less than 1 year (lifetime) in methadone maintenance (HR = 2.7; P = 0.02). Self-reported intravenous cocaine use fell from 33 to 15% over 5 years, shooting gallery use fell from 19 to 6%, and the proportion with five or more sexual partners fell from 25 to 10%. Bleach use rose to 75% of needle-sharers. CONCLUSIONS: The 1985-1990 HIV seroconversion rate in IVDU (1.9% ppy) was comparable to that in San Francisco cohorts of homosexual men (1.4% ppy). A decline in HIV seroconversion coincided with changes in risk behavior. Stable attendance of methadone maintenance was highly protective: the seroconversion rate in subjects with 1 year or more in methadone was 12% ppy.

Immune activation markers and AIDS prognosis.

Four assays for serum levels of cellular products of immune activation were examined as prognostic markers for AIDS in a prospective study of asymptomatic HIV-seropositive homosexual men. Baseline serum values of beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M), neopterin, soluble CD8 (sCD8), and soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) for 185 men were examined univariately and multivariately as predictors of AIDS during 36 months of follow-up. Thirty-three cases of AIDS (18%) were diagnosed during the follow-up period. All four assays correlated highly with each other (r = 0.48-0.63), and all four were good univariate predictors of AIDS and comparable to CD4 lymphocyte count. beta 2M, neopterin, and sCD8 predicted AIDS independently of both CD4 count and HIV p24 antigen or p24 antibody in multivariate analysis. Within the range of CD4 count 200-499 x 10(6) cells/l, an immune activation marker used in combination with an assay for p24 antigen identifies those at 3-6% risk of AIDS over 36 months (low risk on both assays) and those at 63-86% risk (high risk on both assays). These results can be used to guide physicians and patients making decisions about treating asymptomatic HIV infection with zidovudine in individuals with CD4 lymphocyte count of 200-499 x 10(6) cells/l.

Serum albumin as a predictor of survival in HIV-infected women in the Women's Interagency HIV study.

BACKGROUND: The level of serum albumin is associated with mortality in a wide variety of chronic diseases. However, few studies have examined the relationship between serum albumin and survival in HIV-1 infection. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the serum albumin level is associated with survival in HIV-1 infected women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Patients were interviewed and examined at 6 month intervals. SETTING: A North American multi-institutional cohort of HIV-infected women from five geographical areas. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2056 HIV-infected women at various stages of disease. MEASUREMENTS: Mortality during the first 3 years of follow-up. The relative risk of death by serum albumin level was estimated using a proportional hazards ratio adjusted for CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level and other relevant covariates. RESULT: Three year mortality for women in the lowest serum albumin category (< 35 g/l) was 48% compared with 11% in the highest category (> or = 42 g/l; P < 0.001). The adjusted relative hazard (RH) of death was 3.1 times greater for those in the lowest albumin category (P < 0.01). The excess risk associated with lower serum albumin levels remained when subjects with moderate to severe immunosuppression and abnormal kidney and liver function were excluded (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The baseline serum albumin level is an independent predictor of mortality in HIV-1-infected women. The serum albumin level may be a useful additional marker of HIV-1 disease progression, particularly among asymptomatic women with little or no evidence of immunosuppression.

Changes in bone resorption during the menstrual cycle.

To determine if the cyclic changes of female sex hormones during the menstrual cycle are related to changes in bone formation and resorption, we measured serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BAP) and osteocalcin (OC) and bone resorption markers, serum and urine deoxypyridinoline (Dpyr), three times per week during one menstrual cycle in 20 healthy premenopausal women. Serum estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P) showed characteristic cyclic fluctuations. Serum Dpyr was higher during the follicular phase (FP) than in the luteal phase (p = 0.027). Serum BAP, OC, and urine Dpyr levels did not change substantially across the cycle. Serum Dpyr correlated negatively with serum E2 values measured 6 (p = 0.011) and 8 (p = 0.001) days earlier and with P measured concurrently (p = 0.033) 2 (p = 0.002), 4 (p = 0.003), and 6 (p = 0.014) days earlier. BAP correlated negatively with E2 measured 6 days earlier (p = 0.006). We found no statistically significant correlations of E2 or P with OC or urine Dpyr within women over their cycles. BAP was positively correlated with concurrent serum Dpyr (p = 0.015) during the menstrual cycle. Serum OC levels correlated inversely with age (rs = -0.48, p = 0.036). Women with higher mean urine Dpyr levels had higher mean serum OC levels (rs = 0.49, p = 0.033) and showed a trend toward lower hip bone mineral density (rs = -0.40, p = 0.078). We conclude that the low level of E2 and/or P observed during the FP of the normal menstrual cycle is associated with increased bone resorption. These relationships suggest that normal women experience monthly episodes of increased bone resorption from menarche to menopause.

Consequences of worksite hypertension screening. Changes in absenteeism.

To confirm reports of increased absenteeism after worksite hypertension screening, we performed a three-stage blood pressure screening among 5888 self-selected heterogeneous workers at 11 electronics plants using standardized screening and labeling procedures. A total of 296 subjects with mean systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or greater or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or greater on all three occasions were considered to have sustained hypertension. From the untreated normotensive subjects matched for eight sociodemographic and occupational variables, we prospectively selected one to three controls for each sustained hypertensive subject. Uncorrected absenteeism rates for sustained hypertensive subjects increased 22% from baseline in the postscreening year. Correction by logarithmic transformation for skewed distributions and by rates for matched controls for temporal trends reduced these changes to statistical insignificance with high statistical power. Several subgroups exhibited trends to increased absenteeism. At 12-month follow-up, the blood pressure of the sustained hypertensive subjects showed mean decreases of 12.6/6.7 mm Hg (p less than 0.0001) after the majority had received pharmacological antihypertensive treatment. These results suggest that worksite hypertension screening and labeling produce insignificant absenteeism change overall among self-selected heterogeneous work force populations.

The impact of lengthening AIDS reporting delays and uncertainty about underreporting on incidence trends and projections.

This article extends existing methods for estimating reporting delays to allow nonparametric estimation of how delays are changing over time. Also implemented are refinements to estimate calendar month effects and to improve the accuracy of trend estimates by focusing on delays of > 6 months. Applying the method to 1987-definition adult and adolescent AIDS cases reported by June 1992 shows strong evidence for a nonlinear trend toward longer delays among cases diagnosed more recently and for slower reporting of cases diagnosed in January and June of each year. Combining estimated reporting delay corrections with the possibility of increasing underreporting produces a 14-16% higher estimated incidence by December 1991 and a 19-24% higher projected incidence by December 1993 than using the delay corrections provided with the public information AIDS data and assuming constant underreporting rates.

Early predictors of survival in symptomatic HIV-infected persons treated with high-dose zidovudine.

The survival times of 246 patients treated with high-dose zidovudine beginning in 1986 were obtained through November 1988. We analyzed clinical and laboratory predictors of survival as measured before initiation of therapy and during the first 32 weeks of therapy. In a multivariate proportional-hazards model, we found significant independent predictive abilities for four pretherapy measurements (AIDS versus ARC diagnosis, Karnofsky performance score, age, and hemoglobin) and four measurements made during therapy (change in log CD4 lymphocyte count from pretherapy to week 24, CD8 lymphocyte count at week 24, rate of decline of hemoglobin over the first 3 months of therapy, and rate of decline in white blood count over the first 6 months of therapy). The presence of three predictors measured during therapy that are statistically significant when controlled for changes in CD4 count suggests that the use of other measures in addition to CD4 counts may substantially improve the prediction of long-term survival based on early response of surrogate markers to therapy.

Results of a one year longitudinal study of HIV antibody test notification from the San Francisco General Hospital cohort.

We examined the psychological impact of HIV antibody testing in 107 homosexual men in San Francisco. Seventy-eight percent of the seropositives but only 43% of the seronegatives correctly anticipated their results. Twelve months after notification (but not earlier), notified seropositives reported significantly greater increases in total distress than nonnotified controls. However, notified seronegatives demonstrated significantly lower levels of hopelessness than nonnotified controls at every follow-up assessment. Thus, knowledge of HIV antibody status appears to dispel a sense of gloom in persons who incorrectly believe themselves to be infected with HIV, but does not appear to induce significant distress in those whose expectation of a positive result is confirmed. Both groups reported lower distress than men with ARC or AIDS, suggesting that distress was related more to symptomatology than knowing antibody status. These results suggest the benefits of HIV testing for the considerable proportion of seronegative subjects believing themselves to be seropositive and should be weighted against the more limited induction of distress in seropositives who receive confirmation of their test result expectation. The benefits of testing are also supported by increasing knowledge of the usefulness of early intervention in HIV disease.