Food prices and the wages of the poor: A cost-effective addition to high-frequency food security monitoring.

The affordability of nutritious food for "all people, at all times" is a critically important dimension of food security. Yet surprisingly, timely high-frequency indicators of food affordability are rarely collected in any systematic fashion despite price volatility emerging as major source of food insecurity in the 21st Century. The 2008 global food crisis prompted international agencies to invest heavily in monitoring domestic food prices in low and middle income countries (LMICs). However, food price monitoring is not sufficient for measuring changes in diet affordability; for that, one must also measure changes either in income or in an income proxy. We propose using the wages of unskilled workers as a cheap and sufficiently accurate income proxy, especially for the urban and rural non-farm poor. We first outline alternative measures of "food wage" indices, defined as wages deflated either by consumer food price indices or novel healthy diet cost indices. We then discuss the conceptual strengths and limitations of food wages. Finally, we examine patterns and trends in different types of real food wage series during well-known food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. In Myanmar, the decline in real wages during 2022 closely matches declines in household disposable income. We strongly advocate tracking the wages of the poor as a timely, accurate and cost-effective means of monitoring food affordability for important segments of the world's poor.

The transforming value chain of Ethiopia's "orphan" tef crop.

MAIN CONCLUSION: Despite the relatively little attention given to tef, the value chain is quickly transforming and is expected to further do so in the near future. Tef is called an "orphan" crop in Ethiopia as it receives relatively little attention from the Ethiopian government and from international donors. Given the low yields of tef compared to other crops, it is often viewed as a low-priority crop and relatively little is known about the value chain of tef. We fill some of this knowledge gap in this paper. We illustrate tef's importance in Ethiopia's food systems and the rapid changes upstream, midstream, and downstream in its value chain. We show that tef production and productivity is rapidly increasing and that tef markets are improving over time. More specifically, using a growth decomposition analysis, we find that while the expansion of land and labor use have been important sources of growth in tef production, the relative contributions of modern input use and agricultural extension have been increasing over time. We also show that tef has greater economic potential, with comparatively more of it consumed by the better-off segments of the population, indicating that its importance is likely to grow over time as income grows in the country. Using reasonable assumptions on income growth, urbanization, and commercialization, we estimate that national tef consumption and marketed output will increase by about 250 and 300%, respectively, over a 20-year period.

Biofortification in Ethiopia: Opportunities and Challenges.

BACKGROUND: Children younger than 5 years and women of reproductive age often suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Biofortification, which involves enriching staple crops with micronutrients, is a nutritional intervention focused on addressing micronutrient deficiencies. It is equitable, sustainable, and costs less than other nutritional interventions. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates biofortification in Ethiopia, considering 6 globally biofortified crops, 5 of which are currently being biofortified in Ethiopia. However, only 2 of these crops are important in the consumption baskets of most Ethiopians. Therefore, efforts to mainstream biofortification should begin with studies to identify crops that have larger impacts in reducing local micronutrient deficiencies and their cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Literature was searched between July and December 2021 using Google Scholar to provide insights into the state of biofortification in Ethiopia. Key-informant interviews were conducted to gain insights into the state of biofortification in Ethiopia and to identify bottlenecks for scaling up the production and consumption of biofortified foods. Furthermore, Annual Agriculture Sample Survey and 2015/16 Ethiopian Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey data were used to describe the area under production of biofortifiable crops and their importance in total consumption, respectively. RESULTS: Mainstreaming biofortification in Ethiopia faces several challenges. Policy documents appear to be inconsistent, regressive, and vague regarding biofortification. Critically, there is no specific institution to oversee and/or coordinate biofortification-related activities. CONCLUSION: Overall, the success of biofortification depends upon a strong coordination body with clear mandates from detailed policies; adequate funding for research and development; and robust monitoring and evaluation of the identified production, adoption, and consumption issues.