RESUMO
Extreme sea levels (ESLs) affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Protection and adaptation strategies rely on the characterization of the extreme's occurrence probability in the future. However, knowledge on the occurrence rate and duration of ESLs is also needed to properly characterize the associated future risk. In this paper, we focus on the Venice lagoon, where a system of storm surge barriers can disconnect the lagoon from the sea to mitigate ESLs. Using long-term (96 years) sea level records, we model occurrence rate and duration of ESLs while accounting explicitly for seasonality and mean sea level rise. While historically ESLs occurred in the winter season, we project a significant increase (up to 10-fold with a mean sea level increase of +100 cm) of the occurrence rate also in the summer season, when disconnections from the sea can have profound impacts on the lagoon's ecosystem. We also predict an increase in ESLs durations up to 200 h, leading to longer disconnections of the lagoon from the sea in the future. Therefore, several adaptation strategies will be needed to limit the adverse effects of storm surge barriers on the lagoon ecosystem.
Assuntos
Ecossistema , Elevação do Nível do Mar , Oceanos e MaresRESUMO
The loss of longitudinal connectivity affects river systems globally, being one of the leading causes of the freshwater biodiversity crisis. Barriers alter the dispersal of aquatic organisms and limit the exchange of species between local communities, disrupting metacommunity dynamics. However, the interplay between connectivity losses due to dams and other drivers of metacommunity structure, such as the configuration of the river network, needs to be explored. In this paper, we analyzed the response of fish communities to the network position and the fragmentation induced by dams while controlling for human pressures and environmental gradients. We studied three large European catchments covering a fragmentation gradient: Upper Danube (Austrian section), Ebro (Spain), and Odra/Oder (Poland). We quantified fragmentation through reach-scaled connectivity indices that account for the position of barriers along the dendritic network and the dispersal capacity of the organisms. We used generalized linear models to explain species richness and Local Contributions to Beta Diversity (LCBD) and multilinear regressions on the distance matrix to describe Beta Diversity and its Replacement and Richness Difference components. Results show that species richness was not affected by fragmentation. Network centrality metrics were relevant drivers of beta diversity for catchments with lower fragmentation (Ebro, Odra), and fragmentation indices were strong beta diversity predictors for the catchment with higher fragmentation (Danube). We conclude that in highly fragmented catchments, the effects of network centrality/isolation on biodiversity could be masked by the effects of dam fragmentation. In such catchments, metapopulation and metacommunity dynamics can be strongly altered by barriers, and the restoration of longitudinal connectivity (i.e. the natural centrality/isolation gradient) is urgent to prevent local extinctions.
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River systems have undergone a massive transformation since the Anthropocene. The natural properties of river systems have been drastically altered and reshaped, limiting the use of management frameworks, their scientific knowledge base and their ability to provide adequate solutions for current problems and those of the future, such as climate change, biodiversity crisis and increased demands for water resources. To address these challenges, a socioecologically driven research agenda for river systems that complements current approaches is needed and proposed. The implementation of the concepts of social metabolism and the colonisation of natural systems into existing concepts can provide a new basis to analyse the coevolutionary coupling of social systems with ecological and hydrological (i.e., 'socio-ecohydrological') systems within rivers. To operationalize this research agenda, we highlight four initial core topics defined as research clusters (RCs) to address specific system properties in an integrative manner. The colonisation of natural systems by social systems is seen as a significant driver of the transformation processes in river systems. These transformation processes are influenced by connectivity (RC 1), which primarily addresses biophysical aspects and governance (RC 2), which focuses on the changes in social systems. The metabolism (RC 3) and vulnerability (RC 4) of the social and natural systems are significant aspects of the coupling of social systems and ecohydrological systems with investments, energy, resources, services and associated risks and impacts. This socio-ecohydrological research agenda complements other recent approaches, such as 'socio-ecological', 'socio-hydrological' or 'socio-geomorphological' systems, by focusing on the coupling of social systems with natural systems in rivers and thus, by viewing the socioeconomic features of river systems as being just as important as their natural characteristics. The proposed research agenda builds on interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity and requires the implementation of such programmes into the education of a new generation of river system scientists, managers and engineers who are aware of the transformation processes and the coupling between systems.
Assuntos
Rios , Recursos Hídricos , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Previsões , HidrologiaRESUMO
The identification and prioritization of sites for conservation actions to protect biodiversity in lotic systems is crucial when economic resources or available areas are limited. Challenges include the incorporation of multi-scale interactions, and the application of species distribution models (SDMs) to rare organism with multiple life stages. To support the planning of conservation actions for the highly endangered Freshwater Pearl Mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (FPM), this paper aims at developing an ecohydrological modeling cascade including a hydrological model (SWAT) and a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). Building on hydrology and hydraulics, Random Forest models for potential risk to juveniles due to sand accumulation, SDMs for adults habitat niche, and a landscape connectivity assessment of dispersal potential were developed. The feasibility of such models integration was tested in the Aist catchment (630 km2) in Austria. The potential FPM habitat and the sand accumulation risk for the whole catchment were predicted with good accuracy. Results show that while the potentially suitable habitats for adults FPM cover 34% of the river network, only few habitat patches can maximize the dispersal potential (4% of the river network) and even less are showing limited impact of accumulations (3.5% of river network). No habitat patch that meets all the three criteria is available, suggesting approaches that target the patch-specific critical life stage-factors are promising for conservation.
Assuntos
Bivalves , Animais , Áustria , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Água Doce , RiosRESUMO
A new R software package, RAC, is presented. RAC allows to simulate the rearing cycle of 4 species, finfish and shellfish, highly important in terms of production in the Mediterranean Sea. The package works both at the scale of the individual and of the farmed population. Mathematical models included in RAC were all validated in previous works, and account for growth and metabolism, based on input data characterizing the forcing functions-water temperature, and food quality/quantity. The package provides a demo dataset of forcings for each species, as well as a typical set of husbandry parameters for Mediterranean conditions. The present work illustrates RAC main features, and its current capabilities/limitations. Three test cases are presented as a proof of concept of RAC applicability, and to demonstrate its potential for integrating different open products nowadays provided by remote sensing and operational oceanography.