An analysis of malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon using divergent association rules.

In data analysis, the mining of frequent patterns plays an important role in the discovery of associations and correlations between data. During this process, it is common to produce thousands of association rules (ARs), making the study of each one arduous. This problem weakens the process of finding useful information. There is a scientific effort to develop approaches capable of filtering interesting patterns, balancing the number of ARs produced with the goal of not being trivial and known by specialists. However, even when such approaches are adopted, the number of produced ARs can still be high. This work contributes by presenting Divergent Association Rules Approach (DARA), a novel approach for obtaining ARs that presents themselves in divergence with the data distribution. DARA is applied right after traditional approaches to filtering interesting patterns. To validate our approach, we studied the dataset related to the occurrence of malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. The discovered patterns highlight that ARs brought relevant insights from the data. This article contributes both in the medical and computer science fields since this novel computational approach enabled new findings regarding malaria in Brazil.

From global action against malaria to local issues: state of the art and perspectives of web platforms dealing with malaria information.

BACKGROUND: Since prehistory to present times and despite a rough combat against it, malaria remains a concern for human beings. While evolutions of science and technology through times allowed for some infectious diseases eradication in the 20th century, malaria resists. OBJECTIVES: This review aims at assessing how Internet and web technologies are used in fighting malaria. Precisely, how do malaria fighting actors profit from these developments, how do they deal with ensuing phenomena, such as the increase of data volume, and did these technologies bring new opportunities for fighting malaria? METHODS: Eleven web platforms linked to spatio-temporal malaria information are reviewed, focusing on data, metadata, web services and categories of users. RESULTS: Though the web platforms are highly heterogeneous the review reveals that the latest advances in web technologies are underused. Information are rarely updated dynamically, metadata catalogues are absent, web services are more and more used, but rarely standardized, and websites are mainly dedicated to scientific communities, essentially researchers. CONCLUSION: Improvement of systems interoperability, through standardization, is an opportunity to be seized in order to allow real time information exchange and online multisource data analysis. To facilitate multidisciplinary/multiscale studies, the web of linked data and the semantic web innovations can be used in order to formalize the different view points of actors involved in the combat against malaria. By doing so, new malaria fighting strategies could take place, to tackle the bottlenecks listed in the United Nation Millennium Development Goals reports, but also specific issues highlighted by the World Health Organization such as malaria elimination in international borders.

[Climate-sensitive diseases in Brazil and the world: systematic reviewEnfermedades sensibles al clima en Brasil y el mundo: revisión sistemática]. / Doenças sensíveis ao clima no Brasil e no mundo: revisão sistemática.

OBJECTIVE: To survey the literature regarding climate-sensitive diseases (CSD) and the impacts of climate changes on health. METHOD: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). The Lilacs, SciELO, Scopus, and PubMed databases were searched in July 2017 without temporal restrictions for articles published in in Portuguese, English and Spanish. The following search strategy was used in all databases: (climate) AND (disease) AND (sensitive). RESULTS: The systematic review included 106 articles, most of which focused on dengue, malaria, and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The most commonly studied climate variables were temperature and precipitation. The studies revealed a relationship between the incidence of certain diseases, especially cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, dengue, malaria, and arboviral diseases, and climate conditions in different regions of the world. This relationship was analyzed considering both past data on the incidence of diseases and climate variables and projections regarding the future incidence of diseases according to expected climate variations. A greater number of studies was performed by authors originating from developed countries. The world regions most often studied were China, the United States, Australia, and Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the increase in the number of published articles on this theme, a greater number of climate and environmental variables must be studied, with expansion of studies to additional regions in the world.

OBJETIVOS: Hacer un examen de las publicaciones sobre las enfermedades sensibles al clima y los efectos de las alteraciones climáticas sobre la salud. MÉTODO: La revisión sistemática se efectuó de conformidad con el método basado en elementos de notificación preferidos para revisiones sistemáticas y metanálisis (PRISMA, por su sigla en inglés). Las búsquedas se realizaron en las bases LILACS, PubMed, Scopus y SciELO en julio del 2017, sin limitaciones de tiempo. En todas las bases se utilizó la siguiente estrategia de búsqueda: (climate) AND (disease) AND (sensitive). Las búsquedas se realizaron en inglés, español y portugués. RESULTADOS: Se seleccionaron 106 publicaciones. Las enfermedades más estudiadas fueron el dengue, la malaria y las enfermedades cardiovasculares y respiratorias. Las variables climáticas más estudiadas fueron la temperatura y las precipitaciones. Los estudios mostraron una relación entre la incidencia de determinadas de enfermedades, principalmente de las enfermedades cardiovasculares y respiratorias, el dengue, la malaria y las enfermedades arbovirales, y las condiciones climáticas en diferentes regiones del mundo. Esa relación se analizó tanto con datos pasados de incidencia de enfermedades y variables climáticas como con una proyección de la incidencia futura de enfermedades, de acuerdo con las variaciones previstas del clima. Se encontró un mayor número de estudios realizados por autores oriundos de países desarrollados. Los lugares estudiados con mayor frecuencia fueron Australia, Brasil, China y Estados Unidos. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar del aumento del número de artículos publicados sobre el tema, es preciso enfocarse en un mayor número de variables climáticas y ambientales, y ampliar los estudios a otras regiones del mundo.

Increased Hospitalizations for Neuropathies as Indicators of Zika Virus Infection, according to Health Information System Data, Brazil.

Evidence is increasing that Zika virus can cause extensive damage to the central nervous system, affecting both fetuses and adults. We sought to identify traces of possible clinical manifestations of nervous system diseases among the registers of hospital admissions recorded in the Brazilian Unified Health System. Time series of several diagnoses from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, were analyzed by using control diagrams, during January 2008-February 2016. Beginning in mid-2014, we observed an unprecedented and significant rise in the hospitalization rate for congenital malformations of the nervous system, Guillain-Barré syndrome, encephalitis, myelitis, and encephalomyelitis. These conditions are compatible with viral infection and inflammation-associated manifestations and may have been due to the entrance of Zika virus into Brazil. These findings show the necessity of adequately diagnosing and treating suspected cases of Zika virus infection and also that health surveillance systems can be improved by using routine data.

An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change.

This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.

Expansion of the dengue transmission area in Brazil: the role of climate and cities.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the spatial and temporal patterns of the recent expansion of dengue transmission area in Brazil (2001-2012) with the aim to identify pathways and constraints to dengue diffusion. METHODS: Synthetic indicators were calculated to characterise timing (year of first dengue outbreak), permanence (number of years with dengue outbreaks) and intensity (outbreak occurrence). The indicators were used to map dengue diffusion and compare cities within different climatic zones, with varying population densities. RESULTS: Currently, a large portion of the country comprises a dengue transmission area, but cities situated in the mesothermal zone, in the south, and remote areas, in the north, are relatively exempt. Diffusion waves are spread from metropolitan areas towards medium and small cities generating outbreaks in their influence region. However, long-term permanence of transmission depends on the existence of a favourable climate, abundant population and connectivity. CONCLUSIONS: Large and warm cities sustain and spread dengue viruses, for which specific dengue control measures must be developed. The concentration of outbreaks along climate transition fringes indicates a boundary between two transmission regimes and raises awareness to the effects of ongoing climatic and socio-economic changes.

Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil.

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.

The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil.

Previous studies demonstrate statistically significant associations between disease and climate variations, highlighting the potential for developing climate-based epidemic early warning systems. However, limitations include failure to allow for non-climatic confounding factors, limited geographical/temporal resolution, or lack of evaluation of predictive validity. Here, we consider such issues for dengue in Southeast Brazil using a spatio-temporal generalised linear mixed model with parameters estimated in a Bayesian framework, allowing posterior predictive distributions to be derived in time and space. This paper builds upon a preliminary study by Lowe et al. but uses extended, more recent data and a refined model formulation, which, amongst other adjustments, incorporates past dengue risk to improve model predictions. For the first time, a thorough evaluation and validation of model performance is conducted using out-of-sample predictions and demonstrates considerable improvement over a model that mirrors current surveillance practice. Using the model, we can issue probabilistic dengue early warnings for pre-defined 'alert' thresholds. With the use of the criterion 'greater than a 50% chance of exceeding 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants', there would have been successful epidemic alerts issued for 81% of the 54 regions that experienced epidemic dengue incidence rates in February-April 2008, with a corresponding false alarm rate of 25%. We propose a novel visualisation technique to map ternary probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular dengue risk category, to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022. / Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz - uma análise da evolução da pandemia de fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

A pandemia de COVID-19 teve um imenso impacto nas condições de vida e trabalho de toda a população do país, impactando de modo diferenciado e mais intenso os grupos considerados vulneráveis. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama da evolução da pandemia no país segundo os boletins do Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, no período entre as declarações de início e de encerramento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN), fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022. Foram utilizados diversos dos indicadores adotados nos 69 boletins publicados para a análise da pandemia, como casos e óbitos por SRAGs e COVID-19, grupos etários, taxas de ocupação de leitos UTI e vacinação, entre outros. A análise da evolução foi organizada entre anos e fases da pandemia, procurando destacar o que caracterizou cada momento. A declaração de encerramento da ESPIN no Brasil coincide com as discussões acerca da transição de pandemia para a endemia, sem que isso represente a eliminação do vírus, das infecções e da doença, colocando-se os desafios de avanços nos processos de vacinação no Brasil e no mundo e da convivência com cenários que poderão exigir a adoção de medidas de proteção temporárias em períodos epidêmicos e de maior risco para grupos vulneráveis.

Involvement of political and socio-economic factors in the spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil: A population-based study.

Background: Brazil has been severely impacted by COVID-19 pandemics that is aggravated by the absence of a scientifically-driven coordinated informative campaign and the interference in public health management, which ultimately affected health measures to avoid SARS-CoV2 spread. The decentralization and resultant conflicts in disease control activities produced different protection behaviours and local government measures. In the present study, we investigated how political partisanship and socio-economic factors determined the outcome of COVID-19 at the local level in Brazil. Methods: A retrospective study of COVID-19 deaths was carried out using mortality databases between Feb 2020, and Jun 2021 for the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. Socio-economic parameters including city categories, income and inequality indexes, health service quality and partisanship, assessed by the result of the second round of the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections, were included. Regression tree analysis was carried out to identify the statistical significance and conditioning relationships of variables. Findings: Municipalities that supported then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 elections were those that had the worst COVID-19 mortality rates, mainly during the second epidemic wave of 2021. This pattern was observed even considering structural inequalities among cities. Interpretation: In general, the first phase of the pandemic hit large and central cities hardest, while the second wave mostly impacted Bolsonarian municipalities, where scientific denialism among the population was stronger. Negative effects of partisanship towards the right-wing on COVID-19 outcomes counterbalances favourable socioeconomic indexes in affluent Brazilian cities. Our results underscore the fragility of public health policies which were undermined by the scientific denialism of right-wing supporters in Brazil. Funding: International joint laboratories of Institute de Recherche pour le Développement, a partnership between the University of Brasília and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (LMI-Sentinela - UnB - Fiocruz - IRD), Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

Ecological and environmental factors affecting transmission of sylvatic yellow fever in the 2017-2019 outbreak in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that, despite the existence of a safe and effective vaccine, continues to cause outbreaks of varying dimensions in the Americas and Africa. Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil registered un unprecedented sylvatic YFV outbreak whose severity was the result of its spread into zones of the Atlantic Forest with no signals of viral circulation for nearly 80 years. METHODS: To investigate the influence of climatic, environmental, and ecological factors governing the dispersion and force of infection of YFV in a naïve area such as the landscape mosaic of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), we combined the analyses of a large set of data including entomological sampling performed before and during the 2017-2019 outbreak, with the geolocation of human and nonhuman primates (NHP) and mosquito infections. RESULTS: A greater abundance of Haemagogus mosquitoes combined with lower richness and diversity of mosquito fauna increased the probability of finding a YFV-infected mosquito. Furthermore, the analysis of functional traits showed that certain functional groups, composed mainly of Aedini mosquitoes which includes Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes, are also more representative in areas where infected mosquitoes were found. Human and NHP infections were more common in two types of landscapes: large and continuous forest, capable of harboring many YFV hosts, and patches of small forest fragments, where environmental imbalance can lead to a greater density of the primary vectors and high human exposure. In both, we show that most human infections (~ 62%) occurred within an 11-km radius of the finding of an infected NHP, which is in line with the flight range of the primary vectors. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our data suggest that entomological data and landscape composition analyses may help to predict areas permissive to yellow fever outbreaks, allowing protective measures to be taken to avoid human cases.

[ARBOALVO: territorial stratification for definition of areas for prompt response by surveillance and timely control of urban arbovirus infections]. / ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno.

The study aimed to present the methodological proposal entitled "Prompt Response", modelled in the cities of Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais State) and Natal (Rio Grande do Norte State), Brazil. The proposal aims to identify and demarcate priority areas for timely targeting of surveillance activities, aiming to reduce the intensity and velocity in the spread of epidemics in endemic urban areas. The methodology uses three variables that represent the necessary causes for the production and reproduction of dengue: notified cases (virus), Aedes eggs (vector), and population (host). This was an ecological study that used data from three information planes aggregated in finer temporal and spatial scales of 3 to 4 weeks and 400 to 600-meter grids, respectively. The prompt response areas were defined by Scan statistical analysis with definition of simultaneous spatial clusters for the three planes via the SaTScan program. In Natal, the areas defined as prompt response occupied, on average, 15.2% of the city's territory and concentrated 67.77% of the dengue cases in the period following demarcation of the prompt response areas. In Belo Horizonte, the observed proportions were 64.16% of cases in 23.23% of the territory. These results were obtained in two cities with different socioenvironmental and geographic realities and distinct epidemiological profiles, indicating that the methodology can be applied to different urban realities, allowing control programs to concentrate on reduced portions of the territory and impacting a high percentage of cases in timely fashion.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de "Pronta Resposta" modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

El objetivo del trabajo fue presentar la propuesta metodológica, denominada de "Resposta Rápida", modelada en las ciudades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) y Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. Esta última tiene como meta identificar y delimitar áreas prioritarias para la ejecución de acciones de vigilancia en el momento oportuno, buscando la reducción de la intensidad y velocidad de la dispersión de epidemias en áreas urbanas endémicas. Para tal fin, la metodología utiliza tres variables, que representan las causas necesarias para la producción y reproducción del dengue: casos notificados (virus), huevos de Aedes (vector) y población (huésped). Se trata de un estudio ecológico que utilizó los datos de los tres planos de información agregados en escalas temporales y espaciales más finas, de 3 a 4 semanas y tablas de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. Las áreas de respuesta rápida se definieron a través del análisis estadístico de exploración Scan, con definición de clústeres espaciales simultáneos para los tres planos mediante el programa SaTScan. Los resultados observados fueron: en la ciudad de Natal, las áreas definidas como de respuesta rápida ocuparon de media un 15,2% del territorio del municipio y concentraron un 67,77% de los casos de dengue del período posterior al utilizado en la delimitación de las áreas de respuesta rápida y, en Belo Horizonte, los números observados fueron un 64,16% de los casos en un 23,23% del territorio. Estos resultados se obtuvieron en dos ciudades con realidades socioambientales y geográficas diferentes y con perfiles epidemiológicos también distintos, apuntando que la metodología se puede aplicar en diferentes realidades urbanas. Dando la posibilidad de que los programas de control actúen en secciones reducidas del territorio e impactar en un alto porcentaje de casos en el momento oportuno.

ArboAlvo: stratification method for territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses.

OBJECTIVE: To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory. METHODS: Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra. RESULTS: The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs - higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%). CONCLUSION: The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.

Production of Urban Space and the occurrence of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon: the Porto Velho case.

Due to intense ongoing urbanization in the Amazon, the urban pattern of malaria may be changing, both in its spatial distribution and epidemiological profile. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the process of production of urban space in Porto Velho, the capital of the state of Rondonia, Brazil has contributed to the occurrence and maintenance of urban malaria. Using data collected from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVEP-Malaria), we calculated malaria indices for the districts of Porto Velho from 2005 to 2018. We also developed two typologies for classifying urban space based on functional characteristics and features of the landscape. While the former considers characteristics of urban space in Porto Velho, the latter is based on suitability for malaria vectors. We found that the annual parasite index declined in Porto Velho during the study period. However, changes in the index were not uniform across the districts of the city. Periurban areas showed no decline in the index, which we attribute to these areas' high vegetation density and hydrological characteristics.

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. METHODS: We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. FINDINGS: The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41-1·73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22-1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32-2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39-1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33-1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08-1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages. INTERPRETATION: Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods. FUNDING: Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Geographical information system and spatial-temporal statistics for monitoring infectious agents in hospital: a model using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex.

BACKGROUND: The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance and infectious agents have challenged hospitals in recent decades. Our aim was to investigate the circulation of target infectious agents using Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial-temporal statistics to improve surveillance and control of healthcare-associated infection and of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex as a model. METHODS: A retrospective study carried out in a 450-bed federal, tertiary hospital, located in Rio de Janeiro. All isolates of K. pneumoniae complex from clinical and surveillance cultures of hospitalized patients between 2014 and 2016, identified by the use of Vitek-2 system (BioMérieux), were extracted from the hospital's microbiology laboratory database. A basic scaled map of the hospital's physical structure was created in AutoCAD and converted to QGis software (version 2.18). Thereafter, bacteria according to resistance profiles and patients with carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKp) complex were georeferenced by intensive and nonintensive care wards. Space-time permutation probability scan tests were used for cluster signals detection. RESULTS: Of the total 759 studied isolates, a significant increase in the resistance profile of K. pneumoniae complex was detected during the studied years. We also identified two space-time clusters affecting adult and paediatric patients harbouring CRKp complex on different floors, unnoticed by regular antimicrobial resistance surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital GIS with space-time statistical analysis can be applied in hospitals. This spatial methodology has the potential to expand and facilitate early detection of hospital outbreaks and may become a new tool in combating AMR or hospital-acquired infection.

Highways and outposts: economic development and health threats in the central Brazilian Amazon region.

BACKGROUND: Economic development is often evoked as a driving force that has the capacity to improve the social and health conditions of remote areas. However, development projects produce uneven impacts on local communities, according to their different positions within society. This study examines the spatial distribution of three major health threats in the Brazilian Amazon region that may undergo changes through highway construction. Homicide mortality, AIDS incidence and malaria prevalence rates were calculated for 70 municipalities located within the areas of influence of the Cuiabá-Santarém highway (BR-163), i.e. in the western part of the state of Pará state and the northern part of Mato Grosso. RESULTS: The municipalities were characterized using social and economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), urban and indigenous populations, and recent migration. The municipalities' connections to the region's main transportation routes (BR-163 and Trans-Amazonian highways, along with the Amazon and Tapajós rivers) were identified by tagging the municipalities that have boundaries crossing these routes, using GIS overlay operations. Multiple regression was used to identify the major driving forces and constraints relating to the distribution of health threats. The main explanatory variables for higher malaria prevalence were: proximity to the Trans-Amazonian highway, high proportion of indigenous population and low proportion of migrants. High homicide rates were associated with high proportions of migrants, while connection to the Amazon River played a protective role. AIDS incidence was higher in municipalities with recent increases in GDP and high proportions of urban population. CONCLUSIONS: Highways induce social and environmental changes and play different roles in spreading and maintaining diseases and health threats. The most remote areas are still protected against violence but are vulnerable to malaria. Rapid economic and demographic growth increases the risk of AIDS transmission and violence. Highways connect secluded localities and may threaten local populations. This region has been undergoing rapid localized development booms, thus creating outposts of rapid and temporary migration, which may introduce health risks to remote areas.

[Tourism and health: methodological approaches and courses of action]. / Relações entre turismo e saúde: abordagens metodológicas e propostas de ação.

OBJECTIVE: To identify relationships between tourism and health as well as the methods employed in studies about this topic. METHODS: The PubMed and SciELO databases were searched in March of 2008 using the following strategy: traveler or traveller or tourism or tourist AND risk or hazard or vulnerability AND health or surveillance. The following were excluded: articles on animal health, conceptual and review articles, articles about non-tourist travel, and articles written in languages other than Portuguese, English, Italian, and Spanish. Of 153 articles identified, 112 were excluded, and 41 articles were examined. RESULTS: The number of articles on tourism and health increased from one in the 1970s to 34 in the 2000s. Most studies were carried out in Europe, followed by the Americas, and most covered insect-borne diseases, respiratory diseases transmitted from person to person, and gastrointestinal diseases. Mail, telephone, or face-to-face questionnaires were generally used for data collection. In terms of location, 21 studies were performed at the place of departure, 17 at the destination, and in 3 this information was not specified. Four studies were carried out before the trip, 9 during the trip, 24 after the trip, and 3 did not specify this information. Most studies focus on the tourist as a likely victim of health problems, unprepared to face situations of exposure during the trip. CONCLUSIONS: The need to implement health care policies aimed at the tourist population is evident, with emphasis on infectious diseases and emergency actions to detect outbreaks involving tourists. A tourist-specific surveillance and notification system is also necessary, together with measures to prepare health care institutions to meet the individual demands of this population.

[Environmental sanitation and mortality associated with waterborne diseases in children under 5 years of age in Brazil]. / Saneamiento ambiental y mortalidad en niños menores de 5 años por enfermedades de transmisión hídrica en Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: Determine and evaluate the relationship between the variables for water conditions, environmental sanitation, and mortality in children under 5 years of age associated with a group of waterborne diseases. METHODS: An exploratory ecological study was conducted based on data obtained from the 2000 national demographic census and the Unified Health System for the 558 microregions of Brazil. The model used multiple linear regression analysis. Mortality associated with waterborne diseases in children under 5 years of age was considered to be the response variable. Water conditions, sanitation, and level of education were considered to be explanatory variables. RESULTS: A direct relationship was observed between inadequate sanitation in the dwelling (e.g., sewage disposal via rudimentary gutters and pits, the disposal of waste in uncultivated land or public areas) and mortality in children under 5 years of age associated with waterborne diseases. An inverse relationship was found between level of education and mortality associated with waterborne diseases in these children. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest health hazards related to poor sanitation were found in the microregions with a high concentration of low-income population with limited education. The general sanitation conditions and other factors related to dwelling quality and infrastructure are major determinants of mortality. Coverage of the water services, which reach 90% of households in Brazil, was not in itself found to be an important factor in the reduction of the mortality studied.