Population cost-effectiveness of the Triple P parenting programme for the treatment of conduct disorder: an economic modelling study.

Parenting programmes are the recommended treatments of conduct disorders (CD) in children, but little is known about their longer term cost-effectiveness. This study aimed to evaluate the population cost-effectiveness of one of the most researched evidence-based parenting programmes, the Triple P-Positive Parenting Programme, delivered in a group and individual format, for the treatment of CD in children. A population-based multiple cohort decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of Triple P compared with a 'no intervention' scenario, using a health sector perspective. The model targeted a cohort of 5-9-year-old children with CD in Australia currently seeking treatment, and followed them until they reached adulthood (i.e., 18 years). Multivariate probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to incorporate uncertainty in the model parameters. Triple P was cost-effective compared to no intervention at a threshold of AU$50,000 per DALY averted when delivered in a group format [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) = $1013 per DALY averted; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 471-1956] and in an individual format (ICER = $20,498 per DALY averted; 95% UI 11,146-39,470). Evidence-based parenting programmes, such as the Triple P, for the treatment of CD among children appear to represent good value for money, when delivered in a group or an individual face-to-face format, with the group format being the most cost-effective option. The current model can be used for economic evaluations of other interventions targeting CD and in other settings.

Psychosocial therapies for the adjunctive treatment of bipolar disorder in adults: network meta-analysis.

BackgroundFew trials have compared psychosocial therapies for people with bipolar affective disorder, and conventional meta-analyses provided limited comparisons between therapies.AimsTo combine evidence for the efficacy of psychosocial interventions used as adjunctive treatment of bipolar disorder in adults, using network meta-analysis (NMA).MethodSystematic review identified studies and NMA was used to pool data on relapse to mania or depression, medication adherence, and symptom scales for mania, depression and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF).ResultsCarer-focused interventions significantly reduced the risk of depressive or manic relapse. Psychoeducation alone and in combination with cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) significantly reduced medication non-adherence. Psychoeducation plus CBT significantly reduced manic symptoms and increased GAF. No intervention was associated with a significant reduction in depression symptom scale scores.ConclusionsOnly interventions for family members affected relapse rates. Psychoeducation plus CBT reduced medication non-adherence, improved mania symptoms and GAF. Novel methods for addressing depressive symptoms are required.

The modeled cost-effectiveness of family-based and adolescent-focused treatment for anorexia nervosa.

BACKGROUND: Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a prevalent, serious mental disorder. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of family-based treatment (FBT) compared to adolescent-focused individual therapy (AFT) or no intervention within the Australian healthcare system. METHOD: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of FBT relative to comparators over 6 years from the health system perspective. The target population was 11-18 year olds with AN of relatively short duration. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. Results are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in 2013 Australian dollars per DALY averted. RESULTS: FBT was less costly than AFT. Relative to no intervention, the mean ICER of FBT and AFT was $5,089 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): dominant to $16,659) and $51,897 ($21,591 to $1,712,491) per DALY averted. FBT and AFT are 100% and 45% likely to be cost-effective, respectively, at a threshold of AUD$50,000 per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses indicated that excluding hospital costs led to increases in the ICERs but the conclusion of the study did not change. CONCLUSION: FBT is the most cost-effective among treatment arms, whereas AFT was not cost-effective compared to no intervention. Further research is required to verify this result.

The modelled cost-effectiveness of cognitive dissonance for the prevention of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa in adolescent girls in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Eating disorders (EDs), including anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN), are prevalent disorders that carry substantial economic and social burden. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the modelled population cost-effectiveness of cognitive dissonance (CD), a school-based preventive intervention for EDs, in the Australian health care context. METHOD: A population-based Markov model was developed to estimate the cost per disability adjusted life-year (DALY) averted by CD relative to no intervention. We modelled the cases of AN and BN that could be prevented over a 10-year time horizon in each study arm and the subsequent reduction in DALYs associated with this. The target population was 15-18 year old secondary school girls with high body-image concerns. This study only considered costs of the health sector providing services and not costs to individuals. Multivariate probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. RESULTS: Findings showed that the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at base-case for the intervention was $103,980 per DALY averted with none of the uncertainty iterations falling below the threshold of AUD$50,000 per DALY averted. The evaluation was most sensitive to estimates of participant rates with higher rates associated with more favourable results. The intervention would become cost-effective (84% chance) if the effect of the intervention lasted up to 5 years. CONCLUSION: As modelled, school-based CD intervention is not a cost-effective preventive intervention for AN and BN. Given the burden of EDs, understanding how to improve participation rates is an important opportunity for future research.

Was there really any evidence that rosiglitazone increased the risk of myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular causes?

Rosiglitazone has previously been widely used to treat patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, but its safety in terms of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality had been called into question. Recently, there have been doubts raised about the meta-analytic evidence with the regulatory authorities relaxing its restrictions. We hypothesized that the original analyses may have produced exaggerated results because of the small baseline risks involved. To demonstrate this, we replicated the meta-analysis of four randomized trials of greater than 12-month follow-up that made use of a randomized control group not receiving rosiglitazone and reported outcome data for all occurrences of the complementary outcomes (no myocardial infarction, no death from cardiovascular causes, and no heart failure). Data were combined by means of a fixed-effects model. In the rosiglitazone group, as compared with the control group, the relative risk for no myocardial infarction was 0.997 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.994 to 1.000), and the relative risk for no death from cardiovascular causes was 1.001 (95%CI, 0.999 to 1.003). Finally, no heart failure had a relative risk of 0.995 (95%CI, 0.993 to 0.998). Rosiglitazone does not seem to have any significant increase in the risk of myocardial infarction or of death from cardiovascular causes associated with its use. Regulatory authorities should revisit this issue of the appropriate measure for reporting of adverse events with low baseline risks as this has implications well beyond rosiglitazone.

Burden of injuries avertable by a basic surgical package in low- and middle-income regions: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study.

BACKGROUND: Injuries accounted for 11 % of the global burden of disease in 2010. This study aimed to quantify the burden of injury in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that could be averted if basic surgical services were made available and accessible to the entire population. METHODS: We examined all causes of injury from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. We split the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for these conditions between surgically "avertable" and "nonavertable" burdens. For estimating the avertable fatal burden, we applied the lowest fatality rates among the 21 epidemiologic regions to each LMIC region, assuming that the differences in death rates between each region and the lowest rates reflect the gap in surgical care. We adjusted for fatal cases that occur prior to reaching hospitals as they are not surgically avertable. Similarly, we applied the lowest nonfatal burden per case to each LMIC region. RESULTS: Overall, 21 % of the injury burden in LMICs was potentially avertable by basic surgical care (52.3 million DALYs). The avertable proportion was greater for deaths than for nonfatal burden (23 vs. 20 %), suggesting that surgical services for injuries more effectively save lives than ameliorate disability. Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest proportion of potentially avertable burden (25 %). South Asia had the highest total avertable DALYs (17.4 million). Road injury comprised the largest total avertable burden in LMICs (16.1 million DALYs). CONCLUSIONS: Basic surgical care has the potential to play a major role in reducing the injury-related burden in LMICs.

An updated method for risk adjustment in outcomes research.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate why meta-analytic methods need modification before they can be used to aggregate rates or effect sizes in outcomes research, under the constraint of no common underlying effect or rate. METHODS: Studies are presented that require different types of risk adjustment. First, we demonstrate using rates that external risk adjustment through standardization can be achieved using modified meta-analytic methods, but only with a model that allows input of user-defined weights. Next, we extend these observations to internal risk adjustment of comparative effect sizes. RESULTS: We show that this procedure produces identical results to conventional age standardization if a rate is being standardized for age. We also demonstrate that risk adjustment of effect sizes can be achieved with this modified method but cannot be done using standard meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that this method allows risk adjustment to be performed in situations in which currently the fixed- or random-effects methods of meta-analysis are inappropriately used. The latter should be avoided when the underlying aim is risk adjustment rather than meta-analysis.

The Quik Fix study: a randomised controlled trial of brief interventions for young people with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses accessing emergency department and crisis support care.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a major preventable cause of injury, disability and death in young people. Large numbers of young people with alcohol-related injuries and medical conditions present to hospital emergency departments (EDs). Access to brief, efficacious, accessible and cost effective treatment is an international health priority within this age group. While there is growing evidence for the efficacy of brief motivational interviewing (MI) for reducing alcohol use in young people, there is significant scope to increase its impact, and determine if it is the most efficacious and cost effective type of brief intervention available. The efficacy of personality-targeted interventions (PIs) for alcohol misuse delivered individually to young people is yet to be determined or compared to MI, despite growing evidence for school-based PIs. This study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial comparing the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of telephone-delivered MI, PI and an Assessment Feedback/Information (AF/I) only control for reducing alcohol use and related harm in young people. METHODS/DESIGN: Participants will be 390 young people aged 16 to 25 years presenting to a crisis support service or ED with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses (including severe alcohol intoxication). This single blinded superiority trial randomized young people to (i) 2 sessions of MI; (ii) 2 sessions of a new PI or (iii) a 1 session AF/I only control. Participants are reassessed at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary outcomes of alcohol use and related problems and secondary outcomes of mental health symptoms, functioning, severity of problematic alcohol use, alcohol injuries, alcohol-related knowledge, coping self-efficacy to resist using alcohol, and cost effectiveness. DISCUSSION: This study will identify the most efficacious and cost-effective telephone-delivered brief intervention for reducing alcohol misuse and related problems in young people presenting to crisis support services or EDs. We expect efficacy will be greatest for PI, followed by MI, and then AF/I at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary and secondary outcome variables. Telephone-delivered brief interventions could provide a youth-friendly, accessible, efficacious, cost-effective and easily disseminated treatment for addressing the significant public health issue of alcohol misuse and related harm in young people. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000108718.

Estimating treatment rates for mental disorders in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the percentage of Australians with a mental disorder who received treatment for that disorder each year between 2006-07 and 2009-10. METHODS: We used: (1) epidemiological survey data to estimate the number of Australians with a mental disorder in any year; (2) a combination of administrative data on people receiving mental health care from the Commonwealth and State and Territories and epidemiological data to estimate the number receiving treatment; and (3) uncertainty modelling to estimate the effects of sampling error and assumptions on these estimates. RESULTS: The estimated population treatment rate for mental disorders in Australia increased from 37% in 2006-07 to 46% in 2009-10. The model estimate for 2006-07 (37%) was very similar to the estimated treatment rate in the 2007 National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (35%), the only data available for external comparison. The uncertainty modelling suggested that the increased treatment rates over subsequent years could not be explained by sampling error or uncertainty in assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of the Commonwealth's Better Access initiative in November 2006 has been the driver for the increased the proportion of Australians with mental disorders who received treatment for those disorders over the period from 2006-07 to 2009-10. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC? Untreated mental disorders incur major economic costs and personal suffering. Governments need timely estimates of treatment rates to assess the effects of policy changes aimed at improving access to mental health services. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD? Drawing upon a combination of epidemiological and administrative data sources, the present study estimated that the population treatment rate for mental disorders in Australia increased significantly from 37% in 2006-07 to 46% in 2009-10. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS? Increased access to services is not sufficient to ensure good outcomes for those with mental disorders. It is also important to ensure that evidence-based treatment is provided to those Australians accessing these services.

The association of active smoking with multiple cancers: national census-cancer registry cohorts with quantitative bias analysis.

PURPOSES: (1) Determine the association of multiple cancers with smoking, focusing on cancers with an uncertain association; and (2) illustrate quantitative bias analysis as applied to registry data, to adjust for misclassification of smoking and residual confounding by alcohol and obesity. METHODS: New Zealand 1981 and 1996 censuses, including smoking questions, were linked to cancer registry data giving 14.8 million person-years of follow-up. Rate ratios (RR) for current versus never smokers, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic factors were calculated and then subjected to quantitative bias analysis. RESULTS: RR estimates for lung, larynx (including ear and nasosinus), and bladder cancers adjusted for measured confounders and exposure misclassification were 9.28 (95 % uncertainty interval 8.31-10.4), 6.14 (4.55-8.30), and 2.22 (1.94-2.55), respectively. Moderate associations were found for cervical (1.82; 1.51-2.20), kidney (1.29; 1.07-1.56), liver cancer (1.75; 1.37-2.24; European only), esophageal (2.14; 1.73-2.65), oropharyngeal (2.30; 1.94-2.72), pancreatic (1.68; 1.44-1.96), and stomach cancers (1.42; 1.22-1.66). Protective associations were found for endometrial (0.67; 0.56-0.79) and melanoma (0.72; 0.65-0.81), and borderline association for thyroid (0.76; 0.58-1.00), colon (0.89; 0.81-0.98), and CML (0.66; 0.44-0.99). Remaining cancers had near null associations. Adjustment for residual confounding suggested little impact, except the RRs for endometrial, kidney, and esophageal cancers were slightly increased, and the oropharyngeal and liver (European/other) RRs were decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our large study confirms the strong association of smoking with many cancers and strengthens the evidence for protective associations with thyroid cancer and melanoma. With large data sets, considering and adjusting for residual systematic error is as important as quantifying random error.

Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. METHOD: We used the Peto-Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24-31%) of all adult male deaths (>35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21-26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23-28%)]. CONCLUSION: Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.

Cost-effectiveness of various tuberculosis control strategies in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different tuberculosis control strategies in Thailand. METHODS: Different tuberculosis control strategies, which included health-worker, community-member, and family-member directly observed treatment (DOT) and a mobile phone "contact-reminder" system, were compared with self-administered treatment (SAT). Cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken by using a decision tree model. Costs (2005 international dollars [I$]) were calculated on the basis of treatment periods and treatment outcomes. Health outcomes were estimated over the lifetime of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted on the basis of Thai evidence on the efficacy of the selected strategies. RESULTS: Cost-effectiveness results indicate no preference for any strategy. The uncertainty ranges surrounding the health benefits were wide, including a sizeable probability that SAT could lead to more health gain than DOT strategies. The health gain for family-member DOT was 9400 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval -7200 to 25,000), for community-member DOT was 13,000 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval -21,000 to 37,000), and for health-worker DOT was 7900 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval -50,000 to 43,000). There were cost savings (from less multi-drug resistant tuberculosis treatment) associated with family-member DOT (-I$9 million [95% uncertainty interval -I$12 million to -I$5 million]) because the trial treatment failure rate was significantly lower than that for SAT. The mobile phone reminder system was not cost-effective, because the mortality rate associated with it was much higher than that associated with other treatment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Because of the large uncertainty intervals around health gain for DOT strategies, it remains inconclusive whether DOT strategies are more cost-effective than SAT. It is evident, however, that family-member DOT is a cost-saving intervention.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term. METHODS: We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand. CONCLUSIONS: Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

The national burden of road traffic injuries in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: This study quantifies the burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Thailand in 2004, incorporating new Thai data on mortality and the frequency and severity of long-term disability. METHODS: We quantified the uncertainty around national RTI mortality estimates based on a verbal autopsy study that was conducted to correct for the large proportion of ill-defined deaths in the vital registration system. The number of nonfatal RTI victims was estimated using hospital and survey data. We used the proportion and severity of long-term disabilities from a recent Thai study, instead of the standard Global Burden of Disease assumptions, to calculate the burden due to long-term disability. To evaluate changes over time, we also calculated the burden of RTIs in 2004 using the method and assumptions used in 1999, when standard Global Burden of Disease assumptions were used. RESULTS: The total loss of disability-adjusted life years due to RTIs was 673,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 546,000-881,000). Mortality contributed 88% of this burden. The use of local data led to a significantly higher estimate of the burden of long-term disability due to RTIs (74,000 DALYs [95% UI: 55,400-88,500] vs. 43,000 [UI: 42,700-43,600]) using standard Global Burden of Disease methods. However, this difference constituted only a small proportion of the total burden. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of RTIs in 2004 remained at the same high level as in 1999. The use of local data on the long-term health consequences of RTIs enabled an estimate of this burden and its uncertainty that is likely to be more valid.

Is endoscopic surveillance for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus cost-effective? Review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Several health economic evaluations have explored the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance for patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus, with conflicting results. By comparing results across studies and highlighting key methodological and data limitations a platform for future, more rigorous analyses, can be developed. METHODS: A systematic literature review was undertaken of studies evaluating cost-effectiveness of surveillance for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus. Articles were included if they assessed both cost and health outcomes for surveillance versus no surveillance. A descriptive review was undertaken and the quality of the studies appraised against best-practice recommendations for economic evaluations and modeling studies. RESULTS: Seven publications met the inclusion criteria. All used decision-analytic Markov models. Half of the evaluations found surveillance was not cost-effective. At best, surveillance produced improved outcomes at a cost of US$16 640 per quality-adjusted life-year, and at worst it did more harm than good and at a greater cost. The quality of the evaluations and generalizability to the Asia-Pacific region was diminished as a result of inadequate or inconsistent evidence supporting parameter estimates, such as quality of life, endoscopic sensitivity and specificity and cancer recurrence rates. CONCLUSIONS: Unless newly emerging technologies improve the quality-adjusted survival benefit conferred by endoscopic surveillance, this strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective. Obsolete assumptions and incomplete analyses reduce the quality of published evaluations. For these reasons new evaluations are required that encompass the growing evidence base for new technologies, such as new endoscopic therapies for high-grade dysplasia and intramucosal cancer.

The effect size in uncertainty analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In model-based health economic evaluation, uncertainty analysis is often done using parametric bootstrapping. This requires specifying probability distributions for the model variables that are uncertain. METHODS: The effect size of the intervention is often expressed as a relative risk, and the standard assumption for a relative risk is that it has a lognormal distribution with the natural log of the relative risk and its standard error as parameters. The problem with this assumption is that the mean of the bootstrap draws from the lognormal distribution is always higher than the relative risk. RESULTS: This article looks at two ways to correct for this effect and discusses their advantages and drawbacks. Both methods return a bootstrap mean equal to the relative risk, but the first returns an uncertainty interval that is narrower than the corresponding confidence interval, although the second method retains the corresponding width. CONCLUSIONS: The article concludes that the second correction method is preferred.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a key risk factor for chronic disease, but a growing number of people are not achieving the recommended levels of physical activity necessary for good health. Australians are no exception; despite Australia's image as a sporting nation, with success at the elite level, the majority of Australians do not get enough physical activity. There are many options for intervention, from individually tailored advice, such as counselling from a general practitioner, to population-wide approaches, such as mass media campaigns, but the most cost-effective mix of interventions is unknown. In this study we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From evidence of intervention efficacy in the physical activity literature and evaluation of the health sector costs of intervention and disease treatment, we model the cost impacts and health outcomes of six physical activity interventions, over the lifetime of the Australian population. We then determine cost-effectiveness of each intervention against current practice for physical activity intervention in Australia and derive the optimal pathway for implementation. Based on current evidence of intervention effectiveness, the intervention programs that encourage use of pedometers (Dominant) and mass media-based community campaigns (Dominant) are the most cost-effective strategies to implement and are very likely to be cost-saving. The internet-based intervention program (AUS$3,000/DALY), the GP physical activity prescription program (AUS$12,000/DALY), and the program to encourage more active transport (AUS$20,000/DALY), although less likely to be cost-saving, have a high probability of being under a AUS$50,000 per DALY threshold. GP referral to an exercise physiologist (AUS$79,000/DALY) is the least cost-effective option if high time and travel costs for patients in screening and consulting an exercise physiologist are considered. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention to promote physical activity is recommended as a public health measure. Despite substantial variability in the quantity and quality of evidence on intervention effectiveness, and uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of behavioural changes, it is highly likely that as a package, all six interventions could lead to substantial improvement in population health at a cost saving to the health sector. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary.