Modeling changes in probabilistic reinforcement learning during adolescence.

In the real world, many relationships between events are uncertain and probabilistic. Uncertainty is also likely to be a more common feature of daily experience for youth because they have less experience to draw from than adults. Some studies suggest probabilistic learning may be inefficient in youths compared to adults, while others suggest it may be more efficient in youths in mid adolescence. Here we used a probabilistic reinforcement learning task to test how youth age 8-17 (N = 187) and adults age 18-30 (N = 110) learn about stable probabilistic contingencies. Performance increased with age through early-twenties, then stabilized. Using hierarchical Bayesian methods to fit computational reinforcement learning models, we show that all participants' performance was better explained by models in which negative outcomes had minimal to no impact on learning. The performance increase over age was driven by 1) an increase in learning rate (i.e. decrease in integration time scale); 2) a decrease in noisy/exploratory choices. In mid-adolescence age 13-15, salivary testosterone and learning rate were positively related. We discuss our findings in the context of other studies and hypotheses about adolescent brain development.

Executive Function Assigns Value to Novel Goal-Congruent Outcomes.

People often learn from the outcomes of their actions, even when these outcomes do not involve material rewards or punishments. How does our brain provide this flexibility? We combined behavior, computational modeling, and functional neuroimaging to probe whether learning from abstract novel outcomes harnesses the same circuitry that supports learning from familiar secondary reinforcers. Behavior and neuroimaging revealed that novel images can act as a substitute for rewards during instrumental learning, producing reliable reward-like signals in dopaminergic circuits. Moreover, we found evidence that prefrontal correlates of executive control may play a role in shaping flexible responses in reward circuits. These results suggest that learning from novel outcomes is supported by an interplay between high-level representations in prefrontal cortex and low-level responses in subcortical reward circuits. This interaction may allow for human reinforcement learning over arbitrarily abstract reward functions.

Metastudies for robust tests of theory.

We describe and demonstrate an empirical strategy useful for discovering and replicating empirical effects in psychological science. The method involves the design of a metastudy, in which many independent experimental variables-that may be moderators of an empirical effect-are indiscriminately randomized. Radical randomization yields rich datasets that can be used to test the robustness of an empirical claim to some of the vagaries and idiosyncrasies of experimental protocols and enhances the generalizability of these claims. The strategy is made feasible by advances in hierarchical Bayesian modeling that allow for the pooling of information across unlike experiments and designs and is proposed here as a gold standard for replication research and exploratory research. The practical feasibility of the strategy is demonstrated with a replication of a study on subliminal priming.

Troubleshooting Bayesian cognitive models.

Using Bayesian methods to apply computational models of cognitive processes, or Bayesian cognitive modeling, is an important new trend in psychological research. The rise of Bayesian cognitive modeling has been accelerated by the introduction of software that efficiently automates the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling used for Bayesian model fitting-including the popular Stan and PyMC packages, which automate the dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and No-U-Turn Sampler (HMC/NUTS) algorithms that we spotlight here. Unfortunately, Bayesian cognitive models can struggle to pass the growing number of diagnostic checks required of Bayesian models. If any failures are left undetected, inferences about cognition based on the model's output may be biased or incorrect. As such, Bayesian cognitive models almost always require troubleshooting before being used for inference. Here, we present a deep treatment of the diagnostic checks and procedures that are critical for effective troubleshooting, but are often left underspecified by tutorial papers. After a conceptual introduction to Bayesian cognitive modeling and HMC/NUTS sampling, we outline the diagnostic metrics, procedures, and plots necessary to detect problems in model output with an emphasis on how these requirements have recently been changed and extended. Throughout, we explain how uncovering the exact nature of the problem is often the key to identifying solutions. We also demonstrate the troubleshooting process for an example hierarchical Bayesian model of reinforcement learning, including supplementary code. With this comprehensive guide to techniques for detecting, identifying, and overcoming problems in fitting Bayesian cognitive models, psychologists across subfields can more confidently build and use Bayesian cognitive models in their research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Age-related differences in prefrontal glutamate are associated with increased working memory decay that gives the appearance of learning deficits.

The ability to use past experience to effectively guide decision-making declines in older adulthood. Such declines have been theorized to emerge from either impairments of striatal reinforcement learning systems (RL) or impairments of recurrent networks in prefrontal and parietal cortex that support working memory (WM). Distinguishing between these hypotheses has been challenging because either RL or WM could be used to facilitate successful decision-making in typical laboratory tasks. Here we investigated the neurocomputational correlates of age-related decision-making deficits using an RL-WM task to disentangle these mechanisms, a computational model to quantify them, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy to link them to their molecular bases. Our results reveal that task performance is worse in older age, in a manner best explained by working memory deficits, as might be expected if cortical recurrent networks were unable to sustain persistent activity across multiple trials. Consistent with this, we show that older adults had lower levels of prefrontal glutamate, the excitatory neurotransmitter thought to support persistent activity, compared to younger adults. Individuals with the lowest prefrontal glutamate levels displayed the greatest impairments in working memory after controlling for other anatomical and metabolic factors. Together, our results suggest that lower levels of prefrontal glutamate may contribute to failures of working memory systems and impaired decision-making in older adulthood.

How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps: An annotated reading list.

In this guide, we present a reading list to serve as a concise introduction to Bayesian data analysis. The introduction is geared toward reviewers, editors, and interested researchers who are new to Bayesian statistics. We provide commentary for eight recommended sources, which together cover the theoretical and practical cornerstones of Bayesian statistics in psychology and related sciences. The resources are presented in an incremental order, starting with theoretical foundations and moving on to applied issues. In addition, we outline an additional 32 articles and books that can be consulted to gain background knowledge about various theoretical specifics and Bayesian approaches to frequently used models. Our goal is to offer researchers a starting point for understanding the core tenets of Bayesian analysis, while requiring a low level of time commitment. After consulting our guide, the reader should understand how and why Bayesian methods work, and feel able to evaluate their use in the behavioral and social sciences.