Best method for right atrial volume assessment by two-dimensional echocardiography: validation with magnetic resonance imaging.

AIM: Echocardiographic methods for estimating right atrial (RA) volume have not been standardized. Our aim was to evaluate two-dimensional (2D) echocardiographic methods of RA volume assessment, using RA volume by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as the reference. METHODS AND RESULTS: Right atrial volume was assessed in 51 patients (mean age 63 ± 14 years, 33 female) who underwent comprehensive 2D echocardiography and cardiac MRI for clinically indicated reasons. Echocardiographic RA volume methods included (1) biplane area length, using four-chamber view twice (biplane 4C-4C); (2) biplane area length, using four-chamber and subcostal views (biplane 4C-subcostal); and (3) single plane Simpson's method of disks (Simpson's). Echocardiographic RA volumes as well as linear RA major and minor dimensions were compared to RA volume by MRI using correlation and Bland-Altman methods, and evaluated for inter-observer reproducibility and accuracy in discriminating RA enlargement. All echocardiography volumetric methods performed well compared to MRI, with Pearson's correlation of 0.98 and concordance correlation ≥0.91 for each. For bias and limits of agreement, biplane 4C-4C (bias -4.81 mL/m(2) , limits of agreement ±9.8 mL/m(2) ) and Simpson's (bias -5.15 mL/m(2) , limits of agreement ±10.1 mL/m(2) ) outperformed biplane 4C-subcostal (bias -8.36 mL/m(2) , limits of agreement ±12.5 mL/m(2) ). Accuracy for discriminating RA enlargement was higher for all volumetric methods than for linear measurements. Inter-observer variability was satisfactory across all methods. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to MRI, biplane 4C-4C and single plane Simpson's are highly accurate and reproducible 2D echocardiography methods for estimating RA volume. Linear dimensions are inaccurate and should be abandoned.

Atrial fibrillation and heart failure: cause or effect?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are two epidemics of the century that have a close and complex relationship. The mechanisms underlying this association remain an area of ongoing intense research. In this review, we will describe the relationship between these two public health concerns, the mechanisms that fuel the development and perpetuation of both, and the evolving concepts that may revolutionize our approach to this dual epidemic.

Atrial remodeling in newly diagnosed drug-naive hypertensive subjects.

BACKGROUND: Systemic hypertension is a major risk factor for heart disease and stroke. Data regarding temporal relationship of left atrial (LA) remodeling to onset of hypertension are sparse. We aimed to quantitate LA structural and functional remodeling in newly diagnosed hypertensive patients. METHOD: We prospectively identified 380 patients with newly diagnosed systemic hypertension naive to drug therapy, and 380 age-matched control subjects without any history or evidence of hypertension. History or evidence of prior cardiovascular events, congenital or valvular heart disease, and renal dysfunction were exclusion criteria. Prevalence of LA enlargement, LA mechanical dysfunction expressed in total emptying fraction, left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction, LV hypertrophy, and their interrelationships were assessed. RESULTS: Of the 380 newly diagnosed hypertensive patients, 285 (75%) had LA enlargement, 308 (81%) had LA mechanical dysfunction, and 19 (5%) had LVH. Diastolic dysfunction was present in 334 (88%) of the patients. Compared to the controls, the hypertensive group had larger maximal, minimal, and pre-A LA volumes (all P < 0.001). Total and active LA emptying fraction were significantly reduced (both P < 0.001). Total LA emptying fraction was strongly associated with systolic blood pressure [per 10 mmHg, HR 0.94 (0.89-0.98); P < 0.001], with stepwise decrease in LA emptying fraction of 6%, 10%, and 16% from the lowest (141-150 mmHg) to the top tertile of systolic blood pressure (>160 mmHg). CONCLUSION: In this drug-naive cohort with newly diagnosed hypertension, LA structural and functional remodeling, and LV diastolic dysfunction were common findings prior to initiation of drug treatment. LVH was uncommon. Impairment of LA mechanical function was evident even in the mildly hypertensive subgroup.

Left atrial volume: clinical value revisited.

Left atrial (LA) volume and function are robust markers of cardiovascular risks and adverse cardiac outcomes. With advances in imaging technology, including tissue Doppler, strain, and strain rate imaging, we can now determine LA volume and function more precisely and this is anticipated to augment our ability to risk stratify, incremental to clinical risk profiling. There is increasing evidence that LA remodeling is treatable and is reversible. Serial LA volume and function assessment may provide a simple and quantifiable way of determining severity of risk and treatment impact. While reverse LA remodeling is expected to improve cardiac outcomes, data to confirm this remain forthcoming.

Left atrial function: physiology, assessment, and clinical implications.

The interest in the left atrium (LA) has resurged over the recent years. In the early 1980s, multiple studies were conducted to determine the normal values of LA size. Over the past decade, LA size as an imaging biomarker has been consistently shown to be a powerful predictor of outcomes, including major public health problems such as atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, and death. More recently, functional assessment of the LA has been shown to be, at least as, if not more robust, a marker of cardiovascular outcomes. Current available data suggest that the combined evaluation of LA size and LA function will augment prognostication. The aim of this review is to provide a critical appraisal of current echocardiographic techniques for the assessment of LA function and the implications of such assessment for prediction and disease prevention.

C-reactive protein, left atrial volume, and atrial fibrillation: a prospective study in high-risk elderly.

BACKGROUND: The data regarding the interrelationships of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), left atrial (LA) volume, and atrial fibrillation (AF) are sparse. Additionally, while LA volume has been shown to be useful for prediction of AF in low-to-moderate risk populations, its predictive value in clinically high-risk populations is unknown. METHODS: SAFHIRE (Study of Atrial Fibrillation in High Risk Elderly) is an ongoing prospective study of the pathophysiology of first AF in persons aged > or = 65 years with > or = 2 other AF risk factors [systemic hypertension, proven coronary artery disease, heart failure (HF), diabetes]. Participants are followed annually, and undergo an interview, physical examination, blood work, electrocardiogram, and echocardiogram assessment. RESULTS: Of 800 participants, mean age of 74 +/- 6 years, 34 developed first AF over 1.7+/- 0.9 years. A history of systemic hypertension and proven coronary artery disease was present in 97% and 78%, respectively. CRP was unrelated to LA volume on univariable or multivariable analyses (P > 0.10), and not predictive of first AF on univariable or multivariable models (all P > 0.10). Indexed LA volume was an independent predictor of first AF (unadjusted P< 0.0001; age and sex adjusted P = 0.0006; adjusted for multiple factors, HR 1.3/5 ml per m(2), 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.48, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this elderly population at high clinical risk for the development of first AF, CRP was unrelated to LA volume and nonpredictive of first AF, while indexed LA volume was incremental to clinical risk factors for the prediction of first AF.

Acute weight gain and diastolic dysfunction as a potent risk complex for post stem cell transplant atrial fibrillation.

The management of atrial fibrillation (AF) following stem cell transplant (SCTX) is often challenging because of the universal presence of profound bone marrow suppression. The incidence of and risk factors for AF/flutter following SCTX are not well known. A total of 395 multiple myeloma (MM) patients consecutively underwent SCTX between 2002 and 2005 at the Mayo Clinic, and 383 of whom, mean age 57 +/- 9 years, had no history of evidence of AF/flutter constituted the study population. During 1,002 person-years of follow up, 39 (10%) patients developed first AF/flutter (incidence of 39 per 1,000 person years), and 28 of these (72%) occurred within 21 days of SCTX. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, weight gain of > or = 7% in the 1st week post-SCTX (HR 3.68; P = 0.0120) and presence of diastolic dysfunction at MM diagnosis (HR 2.294; P = 0.0082) were independent predictors of AF/flutter. The risk of AF/flutter post-SCTX increased by about ninefold when both factors were present. Compared to age and sex-matched MM patients without SCTX, the risk of AF/flutter differed significantly only over the 1st year after MM diagnosis, during which SCTX was performed for the majority. Beyond the 1st year, there was no significant difference in risk of AF/flutter between the two groups. The data suggested that SCTX was associated with significantly increased risk of first AF/flutter, which typically occurred within the first 21 days of the transplant. Weight gain of > or = 7% was strongly predictive of first AF/flutter, and the risk was augmented by the presence of diastolic dysfunction at baseline.

Minimum vs. maximum left atrial volume for prediction of first atrial fibrillation or flutter in an elderly cohort: a prospective study.

AIMS: We sought to compare the predictive power and reproducibility between minimum and maximum left atrial (LA) volume for the development of first atrial fibrillation (AF)/flutter. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective study included 574 adults, mean age 74+/-6 years, in sinus rhythm, and had no history or evidence of prior atrial arrhythmias. During a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-1.2 years, 30 (5.2%) developed first AF/flutter. The 3-year risk estimates of freedom from AF/flutter by tertiles of minimum and maximum LA volumes were, respectively, 97, 87, and 74% (P<0.0006) and 94, 85, and 78% (P=0.03). Minimum LA volume was incremental to clinical and other echocardiographic parameters of AF/flutter prediction [per tertile, hazard ratio (HR) 2.4], as was maximum LA volume (per tertile, HR 1.8) in a separate model. When both volumes were entered into the same model and adjusting for covariates, minimum but not maximum LA volume retained significance. However, in terms of interobserver reproducibility, maximum LA volume compared more favourably (mean difference 3.1+/-7.1 vs. 7.4+/-7.3 mL/m(2)). CONCLUSION: Minimal LA volume was an independent predictor of first AF/flutter. Although it was marginally superior to maximal LA volume in terms of predictive ability, the interobserver variability was greater.

Integrating research into clinical practice: development of an echocardiography research unit.

Introducing a research program into an echocardiography clinical practice can pose many challenges. Some initial factors to consider are the possible effects on the current clinical schedule and the equipment and personnel resources required to support the research projects. More importantly, how can an organization successfully complete reliable and accurate research projects? Here, we describe our experience with establishing an echocardiography research center within our clinical echocardiography practice. In addition, we identify key staff roles, highlight our current research practice methods, and suggest essential components that may prove advantageous when incorporating echocardiography research into a clinical practice.

Obesity as a risk factor for the progression of paroxysmal to permanent atrial fibrillation: a longitudinal cohort study of 21 years.

AIMS: Obesity has been shown to be a risk factor for first atrial fibrillation (AF), but whether it is associated with progression from paroxysmal to permanent AF is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this longitudinal cohort study, Olmsted County, MN residents confirmed to have developed paroxysmal AF during 1980-2000 were identified and followed passively to 2006. The interrelationships of body mass index (BMI), left atrial (LA) size, and progression to permanent AF were analysed. Of a total of 3248 patients (mean age 71 +/- 15 years; 54% men) diagnosed with paroxysmal AF, 557 (17%) progressed to permanent AF (unadjusted incidence, 36/1000 person-years) over a median follow-up period of 5.1 years (interquartile range 1.2-9.4). Adjusting for age and sex, BMI independently predicted the progression to permanent AF (hazard ratio, HR 1.04, CI 1.03-1.06; P < 0.0001). Compared with normal BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), obesity (30-34.9 kg/m(2)) and severe obesity (>or=35 kg/m(2)) were associated with increased risk for progression [HR 1.54 (CI 1.2-2.0; P = 0.0004) and 1.87 (CI 1.4-2.5; P < 0.0001, respectively)]. BMI remained highly significant even after multiple adjustments. In the subgroup with echocardiographic assessment (n = 744), LA volume was incremental to BMI for independent prediction of progression after multiple adjustments, and did not weaken the association between BMI and progression to permanent AF (HR 1.04; CI 1.02-1.05; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: There was a graded risk relationship between BMI and progression from paroxysmal to permanent AF. This relationship was not weakened by LA volume, which was independent of and incremental to BMI for the prediction of progression to permanent AF.

Echocardiographic assessment of left ventricular diastolic function and filling pressure in atrial fibrillation.

Diastolic dysfunction has been linked to 2 epidemics: atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure. The presence and severity of diastolic dysfunction are associated with an increased risk for first AF and first heart failure in patients with sinus rhythm. Furthermore, the risk for heart failure is markedly increased once AF develops. The evaluation of diastolic function once AF has developed remains a clinical challenge. The conventional use of Doppler echocardiography for the assessment and grading of diastolic dysfunction relies heavily on evaluating the relation of ventricular and atrial flow characteristics. The mechanical impairment of the left atrium and the variable cycle lengths in AF render the evaluation of diastolic function difficult. A few Doppler echocardiographic methods have been proved clinically useful for the estimation of diastolic left ventricular filling pressures in AF, but these appear to be underutilized. Several innovative methods are emerging that promise to provide greater precision in diastolic function assessment, but their clinical utility in AF remains to be established. In conclusion, this review provides an up-to-date discussion of the evaluation of diastolic function assessment in AF and how it may be important in the clinical management of patients with AF.

Changing trends of hospital utilization in patients after their first episode of atrial fibrillation.

A marked increase in hospitalization for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has previously been noted. Whether this increase is related to a change in the prevalence of AF or a change in the pattern of practice with respect to the management of AF remains unclear. To determine the trends in hospital utilization after first AF in a community-based setting (Olmsted County, Minnesota), residents diagnosed with first AF from 1980 to 2000 were identified and followed until 2004. The primary outcome of interest was hospital admission for cardiovascular reasons. Of a total of 4,498 subjects (73 +/- 14 years old, 51% men), 2,503 (56%) were admitted to the hospital for cardiovascular causes >or=1 time during a mean follow-up of 5.5 +/- 5.0 years. Risk of first hospitalization was greatest during the first year of AF (cumulative incidence 31%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 30 to 32). First hospitalization was strongly related to age (p <0.0001) but not to sex (p = 0.38). From 1980 to 2000, the age-and sex-adjusted rate of first hospitalization increased, on average, by 2.5% a year (95% CI 1.8 to 3.2, p <0.0001), even after multivariable adjustment for co-morbidities. When we excluded all hospital admissions for the purposes of AF management, the increase in hospitalization was only 0.8% per year (95% CI 0.05 to 1.6, p = 0.04), which was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment for co-morbidities (p = 0.25). In conclusion, the marked increase in hospitalization after first AF diagnosis from 1980 to 2000 appeared to be largely driven by the changing practice pattern in AF management.

Left atrial reservoir function as a potent marker for first atrial fibrillation or flutter in persons > or = 65 years of age.

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the incremental value of left atrial (LA) function for the prediction of risk for first atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter. Maximum and minimum LA volumes were quantitated by echocardiography in 574 adults (mean age 74 +/- 6 years, 52% men) without a history or evidence of atrial arrhythmia. During a mean follow-up period of 1.9 +/- 1.2 years, 30 subjects (5.2%) developed electrocardiographically confirmed AF or atrial flutter. Subjects with new AF or atrial flutter had lower LA reservoir function, as measured by total LA emptying fraction (38% vs 49%, p <0.0001) and higher maximum LA volumes (47 vs 40 ml/m(2), p = 0.005). An increase in age-adjusted risk for AF or atrial flutter was evident when the cohort was stratified according to medians of LA emptying fraction (< or =49%: hazard ratio 6.5, p = 0.001) and LA volume (> or =38 ml/m(2): hazard ratio 2.0, p = 0.07), with the risk being highest for subjects with concomitant LA emptying fractions < or =49% and LA volume > or =38 ml/m(2) (hazard ratio 9.3, p = 0.003). LA emptying fraction (p = 0.002) was associated with risk for first AF or atrial flutter after adjusting for baseline clinical risk factors for AF or atrial flutter, left ventricular ejection fraction, diastolic function grade, and LA volume. In conclusion, reduced LA reservoir function markedly increases the propensity for first AF or atrial flutter, independent of LA volume, left ventricular function, and clinical risk factors.

Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. METHODS AND RESULTS: The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues. CONCLUSIONS: The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.

Outcome of 622 adults with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis during prolonged follow-up.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the long-term outcome of a large, asymptomatic population with hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 622 patients with isolated, asymptomatic AS and peak systolic velocity > or =4 m/s by Doppler echocardiography who did not undergo surgery at the initial evaluation and obtained follow-up (5.4+/-4.0 years) in all. Mean age (+/-SD) was 72+/-11 years; there were 384 (62%) men. The probability of remaining free of cardiac symptoms while unoperated was 82%, 67%, and 33% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Aortic valve area and left ventricular hypertrophy predicted symptom development. During follow-up, 352 (57%) patients were referred for aortic valve surgery and 265 (43%) patients died, including cardiac death in 117 (19%). The 1-, 2-, and 5-year probabilities of remaining free of surgery or cardiac death were 80%, 63%, and 25%, respectively. Multivariate predictors of all-cause mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; P<0.0001), chronic renal failure (HR, 2.41; P=0.004), inactivity (HR, 2.00; P=0.001), and aortic valve velocity (HR, 1.46; P=0.03). Sudden death without preceding symptoms occurred in 11 (4.1%) of 270 unoperated patients. Patients with peak velocity > or =4.5 m/s had a higher likelihood of developing symptoms (relative risk, 1.34) or having surgery or cardiac death (relative risk, 1.48). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant AS will develop symptoms within 5 years. Sudden death occurs in approximately 1%/y. Age, chronic renal failure, inactivity, and aortic valve velocity are independently predictive of all-cause mortality.

Relation of arterial stiffness to left ventricular diastolic function and cardiovascular risk prediction in patients > or =65 years of age.

There is a paucity of data regarding the relation between the various noninvasive indexes of arterial stiffness and left ventricular diastolic function. In 188 subjects aged > or =65 years (mean 75 +/- 5; 71% men), the concordance and strength of the association between measures of arterial stiffness and left ventricular diastolic function were evaluated. Indexes of arterial stiffness (brachial and aortic pulse pressure [PP], carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity [PWV], and augmentation pressure [AP]) were measured using applanation tonometry. Diastolic function was classified in terms of instantaneous diastolic function grade and quantitated as left atrial volume, a measure of chronic diastolic burden. Risk for new cardiovascular events was estimated using a validated clinical echocardiographic risk algorithm. Aortic and brachial PP, PWV, and AP were correlated positively with left atrial volume and diastolic function grade. After adjusting for age, gender, and clinical and echocardiographic covariates, 1-SD increases in aortic PP, brachial PP, PWV, and AP were associated with 6%, 6%, 4%, and 4% increases in indexed left atrial volume, respectively. Similarly, 1-SD increases in aortic PP, brachial PP, and AP were associated with 84%, 81%, and 83% increased risk for diastolic dysfunction, respectively (all p <0.04). PWV and aortic and brachial PP were superior to AP in discriminating subjects with the highest risk of having new cardiovascular events (5-year risk >50%; area under receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.67, 0.67, 0.70, and 0.56, respectively; p <0.05). In conclusion, increased arterial stiffness was associated with more severe left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, although the strength of the association varied according to the specific measure used. Aortic PP, brachial PP, and PWV appeared superior to AP in risk discrimination in this elderly cohort.

Two-dimensional echocardiographic methods for assessment of left atrial volume.

Left atrial (LA) size is an important predictor of cardiovascular events. Various methods of LA volume assessment exist, but their differences have not been defined. This prospective study included 631 patients (331 men; mean age of 68 +/- 14 years) without a history of atrial arrhythmias, stroke, valvular heart disease, pacemaker implantation, or congenital heart disease. All underwent echocardiography with comprehensive diastolic function assessment and LA volume measurement by 3 commonly used methods: biplane area-length, biplane Simpson's method, and the prolate-ellipsoid method. Mean LA volumes were 39 +/- 14 ml/m2 by the area-length method, 38 +/- 13 ml/m2 by the Simpson's method, and 32 +/- 14 ml/m2 by the prolate-ellipsoid method. In 92% of patients, the prolate measurement was smaller than the 2 biplane methods. Pairwise correlations (r) were 0.98 for area-length versus Simpson's, 0.85 for prolate versus area-length, and 0.86 for prolate versus Simpson's (all p values <0.001). For distinguishing normal (n = 62) from pseudonormal diastolic function (n = 240) using receiver-operating curve analysis, areas under the curves were 0.76, 0.78, and 0.75 for the area-length, Simpson's, and prolate methods, respectively (all p values <0.001, no significant intermethod differences). In conclusion, our findings suggest that there are systematic differences among existing LA volume methods. Biplane area-length and Simpson's methods compare closely, whereas the prolate-ellipsoid method generally yields smaller volumes.

Effects of quinapril on left atrial structural remodeling and arterial stiffness.

Left atrial (LA) enlargement, left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction, and increased arterial stiffness are all associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The rate, magnitude, and concordance of modifiability of these risk markers have not been well characterized. Twenty-one patients (mean age 69 +/- 8 years; 52% women) with isolated diastolic dysfunction and indexed LA volumes > or =32 ml/m(2) were randomly assigned to receive either quinapril at a target dose of 60 mg/day or matching placebo for 12 months. Echocardiographic maximum LA volume and LV diastolic function and arterial stiffness by the augmentation index were measured at baseline and 6 and 12 months. Analysis was based on intention to treat. Baseline characteristics were comparable between the treatment (n = 9) and placebo (n = 12) groups. The mean reduction in LA volume of 4.2 +/- 7.8 ml/m(2) in the quinapril group was significant (p = 0.01) compared with the increase in LA volume in the placebo group (5.5 +/- 8.1 ml/m(2)). This represents a relative improvement of 9.7 ml/m(2). Change in LV filling pressure in terms of E/e' and diastolic function grade did not reach significance. A reduction in the augmentation index was associated with a decrease in indexed LA volume (odds ratio 11, p = 0.046), independent of changes in systolic blood pressure. In conclusion, LA structural remodeling appeared reversible with quinapril, which occurred in parallel with an improvement in arterial stiffness but independent of blood pressure changes.

Usefulness of the Atrial Emptying Fraction to Predict Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm After Direct Current Cardioversion for Atrial Fibrillation.

Atrial volumes indexed to body surface area (AVI) are robust predictors of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after direct current cardioversion (DCCV). The incremental value of atrial emptying fraction (EmF) compared with atrial volumes as a predictor for recurrent AF after DCCV has not been evaluated. We sought to compare the predictive ability of baseline left atrial (LA) EmF, right atrial (RA) EmF, LAVI, and RAVI for post-DCCV AF recurrence at 6 months. The first 95 patients enrolled in the AF Clinic Registry with adequate echocardiogram imaging constituted the study cohort. Each patient underwent echocardiogram within 6 months before cardioversion. Maximal LAVI and RAVI, LA EmF, and RA EmF were performed offline using 4-chamber single-plane Simpson's method, averaged over 5 cycles. The mean age of the study cohort was 64 ± 12 years, and 67% were men. Only 28 patients (29%) who underwent DCCV remained in sinus rhythm at 6 months of follow-up. The remaining, 67 (71%) had reverted to AF or underwent ablation during the 6 months of follow-up. The overall performance for prediction of AF recurrence was greatest for RA EmF, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC): RA EmF 0.92, LA EmF 0.89, RAVI 0.76, and LAVI 0.63. RA and LA EmF AUCs were significantly higher than for LAVI or RAVI (max p = 0.02). In conclusion, although RAVI and LAVI are strong predictors of AF recurrence after DCCV, RA and LA EmF outperformed in this cohort.

Time trends of ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in patients diagnosed with first atrial fibrillation in 1980 to 2000: report of a community-based study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: With the changes in management of atrial fibrillation (AF) over time, it is possible that the time trends of post-AF stroke incidence and mortality have changed. We sought to determine whether the incidence and survival of ischemic stroke after AF diagnosis have improved. METHODS: We identified the Olmsted County, Minn, residents who developed first AF from 1980 to 2000 and followed them in medical records to 2004. The outcomes were first ischemic stroke and death. RESULTS: Of the 4117 subjects diagnosed with first AF and without previous stroke, 446 (11%) sustained a first ischemic stroke during a mean follow-up time of 5.5+/-5.0 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of stroke decreased, on average, by 3.4% per year (P=0.0001), concurrent with an increase in warfarin and aspirin use (both P<0.0001) and reduction of systolic blood pressure (P<0.001). The age-adjusted ischemic stroke incidence was higher in women (P=0.039), but not after adjusting for systolic blood pressure (P=0.41). Compared with the general Minnesota white population, the relative mortality hazard ratio was 1.88 for men and 1.84 for women without stroke and 3.03 for men and 3.80 for women (P<0.05) with stroke. The relative mortality hazard did not vary by age or calendar year of AF diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Post-AF ischemic stroke incidence decreased significantly from 1980 to 2000, during which time a substantial increase in the use of antithrombotic therapy and reduction of systolic blood pressure was evident. The relative mortality risk of stroke, however, had not improved over time.