Risk of kidney disease following a pregnancy complicated by diabetes: a longitudinal, population-based data-linkage study among Aboriginal women in the Northern Territory, Australia.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to investigate the risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) following a pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or pre-existing diabetes among Aboriginal women in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. METHODS: We undertook a longitudinal study of linked healthcare datasets. All Aboriginal women who gave birth between 2000 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Diabetes status in the index pregnancy was as recorded in the NT Perinatal Data Collection. Outcomes included any stage of CKD and ESKD as defined by ICD-10 coding in the NT Hospital Inpatient Activity dataset between 2000 and 2018. Risk was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Among 10,508 Aboriginal women, the mean age was 23.1 (SD 6.1) years; 731 (7.0%) had GDM and 239 (2.3%) had pre-existing diabetes in pregnancy. Median follow-up was 12.1 years. Compared with women with no diabetes during pregnancy, women with GDM had increased risk of CKD (9.2% vs 2.2%, adjusted HR 5.2 [95% CI 3.9, 7.1]) and ESKD (2.4% vs 0.4%, adjusted HR 10.8 [95% CI 5.6, 20.8]). Among women with pre-existing diabetes in pregnancy, 29.1% developed CKD (adjusted HR 10.9 [95% CI 7.7, 15.4]) and 9.9% developed ESKD (adjusted HR 28.0 [95% CI 13.4, 58.6]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Aboriginal women in the NT with GDM or pre-existing diabetes during pregnancy are at high risk of developing CKD and ESKD. Pregnancy presents an important opportunity to identify kidney disease risk. Strategies to prevent kidney disease and address the social determinants of health are needed.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Pharmacogenetic interactions of efavirenz or rifampin and isoniazid with levonorgestrel emergency contraception during treatment of HIV or tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: In AIDS Clinical Trials Group study A5375, a pharmacokinetic trial of levonorgestrel emergency contraception, double-dose levonorgestrel (3 mg, versus standard dose 1.5 mg) offset the induction effects of efavirenz or rifampin on plasma levonorgestrel exposure over 8 h post-dose (AUC 0-8h ). We characterized the pharmacogenetics of these interactions. METHODS: Cisgender women receiving efavirenz- or dolutegravir-based HIV therapy, or on isoniazid-rifampin for tuberculosis, were followed after a single oral dose of levonorgestrel. Linear regression models, adjusted for BMI and age, characterized associations of CYP2B6 and NAT2 genotypes (which affect plasma efavirenz and isoniazid exposure, respectively) with levonorgestrel pharmacokinetic parameters. RESULTS: Of 118 evaluable participants, 17 received efavirenz/levonorgestrel 1.5 mg, 35 efavirenz/levonorgestrel 3 mg, 34 isoniazid-rifampin/levonorgestrel 3 mg, and 32 (control group) dolutegravir/levonorgestrel 1.5 mg. There were 73 Black and 33 Asian participants. Regardless of genotype, women on efavirenz and isoniazid-rifampin had higher levonorgestrel clearance. In the efavirenz/levonorgestrel 3 mg group, CYP2B6 normal/intermediate metabolizers had levonorgestrel AUC 0-8h values similar to controls, while CYP2B6 poor metabolizers had AUC 0-8h values of 40% lower than controls. In the isoniazid-rifampin group, NAT2 rapid/intermediate acetylators had levonorgestrel AUC 0-8h values similar to controls, while NAT2 slow acetylators had AUC 0-8h values 36% higher than controls. CONCLUSION: CYP2B6 poor metabolizer genotypes exacerbate the efavirenz-levonorgestrel interaction, likely by increased CYP3A induction with higher efavirenz exposure, making the interaction more difficult to overcome. NAT2 slow acetylator genotypes attenuate the rifampin-levonorgestrel interaction, likely by increased CYP3A inhibition with higher isoniazid exposure.

Association between maternal hyperglycemia in pregnancy and offspring anthropometry in early childhood: the pandora wave 1 study.

BACKGROUND: In-utero hyperglycemia exposure influences later cardiometabolic risk, although few studies include women with pre-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D) or assess maternal body mass index (BMI) as a potential confounder. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of maternal T2D and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) with childhood anthropometry, and the influence of maternal BMI on these associations. METHODS: The PANDORA cohort comprises women (n = 1138) and children (n = 1163). Women with GDM and T2D were recruited from a hyperglycemia in pregnancy register, and women with normoglycemia from the community. Wave 1 follow-up included 423 children, aged 1.5-5 years (median follow-up age 2.5 years). Multivariable linear regression assessed associations between maternal antenatal variables, including BMI and glycemic status, with offspring anthropometry (weight, height, BMI, skinfold thicknesses, waist, arm and head circumferences). RESULTS: Greater maternal antenatal BMI was associated with increased anthropometric measures in offspring independent of maternal glycemic status. After adjustment, including for maternal BMI, children exposed to maternal GDM had lower mean weight (-0.54 kg, 95% CI: -0.99, -0.11), BMI (-0.55 kg/m2, 95% CI: -0.91, -0.20), head (-0.52 cm, 95% CI: -0.88, -0.16) and mid-upper arm (-0.32 cm, 95% CI: -0.63, -0.01) circumferences, and greater mean suprailiac skinfold (0.78 mm, 95% CI: 0.13, 1.43), compared to children exposed to normoglycemia. Adjustment for maternal BMI strengthened the negative association between GDM and child weight, BMI and circumferences. Children exposed to maternal T2D had smaller mean head circumference (-0.82 cm, 95% CI: -1.33, -0.31) than children exposed to normoglycemia. Maternal T2D was no longer associated with greater child mean skinfolds (p = 0.14) or waist circumference (p = 0.18) after adjustment for maternal BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Children exposed to GDM had greater suprailiac skinfold thickness than unexposed children, despite having lower mean weight, BMI and mid-upper arm circumference, and both GDM and T2D were associated with smaller mean head circumference. Future research should assess whether childhood anthropometric differences influence lifetime cardiometabolic and neurodevelopmental risk.

Postpartum uptake of diabetes screening tests in women with gestational diabetes: The PANDORA study.

AIMS: To determine rates and predictors of postpartum diabetes screening among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: PANDORA is a prospective longitudinal cohort of women recruited in pregnancy. Postpartum diabetes screening rates at 12 weeks (75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)) and 6, 12 and 18 months (OGTT, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1C ] or fasting plasma glucose) were assessed for women with GDM (n = 712). Associations between antenatal factors and screening with any test (OGTT, HbA1C , fasting plasma glucose) by 6 months postpartum were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Postpartum screening rates with an OGTT by 12 weeks and 6 months postpartum were lower among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women than non-Indigenous women (18% vs. 30% at 12 weeks, and 23% vs. 37% at 6 months, p < 0.001). Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women were more likely to have completed a 6-month HbA1C compared to non-Indigenous women (16% vs. 2%, p < 0.001). Screening by 6 months postpartum with any test was 41% for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women and 45% for non-Indigenous women (p = 0.304). Characteristics associated with higher screening rates with any test by 6 months postpartum included, insulin use in pregnancy, first pregnancy, not smoking and lower BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Given very high rates of type 2 diabetes among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, early postpartum screening with the most feasible test should be prioritised to detect prediabetes and diabetes for intervention.

Chronic conditions in women: the development of a National Institutes of health framework.

Rising rates of chronic conditions were cited as one of the key public health concerns in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 U.S. Senate and House of Representatives appropriations bills, where a review of current National Institutes of Health (NIH) portfolios relevant to research on women's health was requested. Chronic conditions were last defined by the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in 2010. However, existing definitions of chronic conditions do not incorporate sex or gender considerations. Sex and gender influence health, yet significant knowledge gaps exist in the evidence-base for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of chronic diseases amongst women. The presentation, prevalence, and long-term effects of chronic conditions and multimorbidity differs in women from men. A clinical framework was developed to adequately assess the NIH investment in research related to chronic conditions in women. The public health needs and NIH investment related to conditions included in the framework were measured. By available measures, research within the NIH has not mapped to the burden of chronic conditions among women. Clinical research questions and endpoints centered around women can be developed and implemented; clinical trials networks with expanded or extended eligibility criteria can be created; and data science could be used to extrapolate the effects of overlapping or multiple morbidities on the health of women. Aligning NIH research priorities to address the specific needs of women with chronic diseases is critical to addressing women's health needs from a life course perspective.

Pancreatitis and post-pancreatitis diabetes in Central Australia.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatitis and diabetes are common among Aboriginal people of Central Australia. The contribution of pancreatitis to the development of post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM) is not known. AIMS: To describe among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people living in Central Australia, (i) the prevalence and aetiology of acute (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP), and (ii) diagnosis of new onset diabetes after pancreatitis. METHODS: Retrospective medical record review of patients ≥15 years admitted to hospitals in the Central Australia Health Service between 2009 and 2018 with pancreatitis. Prevalence as a proportion of the resident population and aetiology of AP and CP were determined. Diagnosis of new onset diabetes after admission with pancreatitis was assessed. RESULTS: Of the 638 patients assessed, 73% were Aboriginal and 48% female. The annual prevalence in 2009 and 2018 for AP was 171 and 203 per 100 000 persons, and for CP was 206 and 114 per 100 000 persons respectively. Rates were high in Aboriginal people. Alcohol aetiology was most common in Aboriginal people (66%) and biliary aetiology in non-Aboriginal people (37%). A diagnosis of diabetes after pancreatitis was detected in 125 (29%) of 438 patients who did not have a diabetes diagnosis previously recorded, and 20 of the 22 tested for diabetes-associated antibodies were negative, fitting criteria for PPDM. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of AP and CP in Central Australia was higher in Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. Few patients with diabetes recorded after pancreatitis had appropriate PPDM diagnostic testing. Interdisciplinary education on the diagnosis of PPDM is required.

HIV-Related Stigma Research as a Priority at the National Institutes of Health.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) recognizes that, despite HIV scientific advances, stigma and discrimination continue to be critical barriers to the uptake of evidence-based HIV interventions. Achieving the Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America (EHE) goals will require eliminating HIV-related stigma. NIH has a significant history of supporting HIV stigma research across its Institutes, Centers, and Offices (ICOs) as a research priority. This article provides an overview of NIH HIV stigma research efforts. Each ICO articulates how their mission shapes their interest in HIV stigma research and provides a summary of ICO-relevant scientific findings. Research gaps and/or future opportunities are identified throughout, with key research themes and approaches noted. Taken together, the collective actions on the part of the NIH, in tandem with a whole of government and whole of society approach, will contribute to achieving EHE's milestones.

RESUMEN: Los Institutos de Salud Nacional (NIH, siglas en inglés) reconocen que, a pesar de los avances en la prevención y el tratamiento, el estigma y la discriminación continúan siendo barreras críticas a la adopción de la prevención y el cuido basados en la evidencia. Las metas de Logrando el Fin de la Epidemia de VIH: Plan para América (EHE, siglas en inglés) requerirán la eliminación del estigma relacionado al VIH. Los NIH tienen una historia significativa apoyando la investigación del estigma relacionado al VIH a través de sus Institutos, Centros, y Oficinas (ICOs, siglas en inglés). Esta investigación es una prioridad fundamental y entrelazada para los ICOs. En este artículo, los autores de los NIH proveen una reseña sobre la investigación del estigma relacionado al VIH a través de los ICOs selectos. Cada ICO articula como su misión y prioridad dan forma a su interés en la investigación del estigma al VIH y provee una breve reseña de los hallazgos científicos pertinentes al ICO. Lagunas en la investigación relacionada a la misión, prioridades, y/o áreas de investigación futuras se identifican a través del artículo. También se apuntan en el resumen los temas de investigación claves y sus estrategias. En conjunto, las acciones colectivas de parte de los NIH, junto a la estrategia necesaria de parte del gobierno en su totalidad y de la sociedad en su totalidad, contribuirán al logro de las metas del EHE.

Rethinking third trimester ultrasound measurements and risk of adverse neonatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by hyperglycaemia: A retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal ultrasound is used frequently in pregnancies complicated by hyperglycaemia; however, it is unclear which measurements have the greatest association with adverse neonatal outcomes. AIM: To assess the association between third trimester ultrasound parameters with adverse neonatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by hyperglycaemia. METHOD: All pregnant women with gestational or type 2 diabetes who birthed in a regional hospital over 12 months were included. A composite adverse neonatal outcome was defined by one or more: admission to special care nursery, acidosis, hypoglycaemia, jaundice, shoulder dystocia, respiratory distress syndrome or 5-minute Apgar score < 5. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) for an adverse neonatal outcome, according to pre-specified cut points in both lower and upper percentiles of abdominal circumference (AC) and estimated fetal weight (EFW). RESULTS: Of 275 births an adverse outcome occurred in 122 (44%). Unadjusted OR (95% CI) for AC ≤30th was 3.2 (1.1-8.8) and >95th percentile was 3.1 (1.5-6.0) compared with the reference group of 31-70th percentile. Unadjusted OR for EFW ≤30th was 1.5 (0.7-3.1) and >95th percentile was 3.0 (1.4-6.3). After adjusting for maternal age, body mass index, diabetes type, ethnicity, gravidity, mode of delivery and gestation at birth the OR (95% CI) were as follows: AC ≤30th percentile, 3.7 (1.1-12.4); AC >95th , 2.2 (1.1-4.8); EFW ≤30th , 2.6 (1.1-6.1); EFW >95th , 2.5 (1.1-6.1). CONCLUSION: An AC and EFW up to the 30th percentile may pose just as great a risk to the fetus as an AC or EFW >95th percentile in pregnancies complicated by hyperglycaemia.

Cord blood metabolic markers are strong mediators of the effect of maternal adiposity on fetal growth in pregnancies across the glucose tolerance spectrum: the PANDORA study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to assess associations between cord blood metabolic markers and fetal overgrowth, and whether cord markers mediated the impact of maternal adiposity on neonatal anthropometric outcomes among children born to Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australian women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: From the Pregnancy and Neonatal Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study, an observational cohort of 1135 mother-baby pairs, venous cord blood was available for 645 singleton babies (49% Indigenous Australian) of women with NGT (n = 129), GDM (n = 419) and type 2 diabetes (n = 97). Cord glucose, triacylglycerol, HDL-cholesterol, C-reactive protein (CRP) and C-peptide were measured. Multivariable logistic and linear regression were used to assess the associations between cord blood metabolic markers and the outcomes of birthweight z score, sum of skinfold thickness (SSF), being large for gestational age (LGA) and percentage of body fat. Pathway analysis assessed whether cord markers mediated the associations between maternal and neonatal adiposity. RESULTS: Elevated cord C-peptide was significantly associated with increasing birthweight z score (ß 0.57 [95% CI 0.42, 0.71]), SSF (ß 0.83 [95% CI 0.41, 1.25]), percentage of body fat (ß 1.20 [95% CI 0.69, 1.71]) and risk for LGA [OR 3.14 [95% CI 2.11, 4.68]), after adjusting for age, ethnicity and diabetes type. Cord triacylglycerol was negatively associated with birthweight z score for Indigenous Australian women only. No associations between cord glucose, HDL-cholesterol and CRP >0.3 mg/l (2.9 nmol/l) with neonatal outcomes were observed. C-peptide mediated 18% (95% CI 13, 36) of the association of maternal BMI with LGA and 11% (95% CI 8, 17) of the association with per cent neonatal fat. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Cord blood C-peptide is an important mediator of the association between maternal and infant adiposity, across the spectrum of maternal glucose tolerance.

Associations of gestational diabetes and type 2 diabetes during pregnancy with breastfeeding at hospital discharge and up to 6 months: the PANDORA study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and obesity experience lower rates of breastfeeding. Little is known about breastfeeding among mothers with type 2 diabetes. Australian Indigenous women have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes in pregnancy. We aimed to evaluate the association of hyperglycaemia, including type 2 diabetes, with breastfeeding outcomes. METHODS: Indigenous (n = 495) and non-Indigenous (n = 555) participants of the Pregnancy And Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) cohort included women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (n = 222), with GDM (n = 684) and with type 2 diabetes (n = 144). The associations of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy and breastfeeding at hospital discharge, 6 weeks and 6 months post-partum were evaluated with logistic regression, after adjustment for maternal obesity, ethnicity, maternal and neonatal characteristics. RESULTS: Indigenous women were more likely to predominantly breastfeed at 6 weeks across all levels of hyperglycaemia. Compared with women with no hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, women with type 2 diabetes had lower odds for exclusive breastfeeding at discharge (adjusted OR for exclusive breastfeeding 0.4 [95% CI 0.2, 0.8] p = 0.006). At 6 weeks and 6 months, the relationship between type 2 diabetes and predominant breastfeeding was not statistically significant (6 weeks 0.7 [0.3, 1.6] p = 0.40, 6 months 0.8 [0.4, 1.6] p = 0.60). Women with gestational diabetes were as likely to achieve predominant breastfeeding at 6 weeks and 6 months as women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Indigenous women had high rates of breastfeeding. Women with type 2 diabetes had difficulty establishing exclusive breastfeeding at hospital discharge. Further research is needed to assess the impact on long-term breastfeeding outcomes. Graphical abstract.

A systematic review of trends in all-cause mortality among people with diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined all-cause mortality trends in people with diabetes and compared them with trends among people without diabetes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched for observational studies published from 1980 to 2019 reporting all-cause mortality rates across ≥2 time periods in people with diabetes. Mortality trends were examined by ethnicity, age and sex within comparable calendar periods. RESULTS: Of 30,295 abstracts screened, 35 studies were included, providing data on 69 separate ethnic-specific or sex-specific populations with diabetes since 1970. Overall, 43% (3/7), 53% (10/19) and 74% (32/43) of the populations studied had decreasing trends in all-cause mortality rates in people with diabetes in 1970-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, respectively. In 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 75% (9/12) and 78% (28/36) of predominantly Europid populations, and in 14% (1/7) and 57% (4/7) of non-Europid populations, respectively. In 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 33% (4/12), 65% (11/17), 88% (7/8) and 76% (16/21) of populations aged <40, 40-54, 55-69 and ≥70 years, respectively. Among the 33 populations with separate mortality data for those with and without diabetes, 60% (6/10) of the populations with diabetes in 1990-1999 and 58% (11/19) in 2000-2016 had an annual reduction in mortality rates that was similar to or greater than in those without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality has declined in the majority of predominantly Europid populations with diabetes since 2000, and the magnitude of annual mortality reduction matched or exceeded that observed in people without diabetes in nearly 60% of populations. Patterns of diabetes mortality remain uncertain in younger age groups and non-Europid populations. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration ID CRD42019095974. Graphical abstract.

Screening and Enrollment by Sex in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Clinical Trials in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Women are underrepresented in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) research in the United States. To determine if women screening for HIV clinical trials enrolled at lower rates than men, we performed a retrospective, cross-trial analysis. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of screening and enrollment during 2003-2013 to 31 clinical trials at 99 AIDS Clinical Trials Group network research sites in the United States. Random-effects meta regression estimated whether sex differences in not enrolling ("screen out") varied by various individual, trial, or site characteristics. RESULTS: Of 10 744 persons screened, 18.9% were women. The percentages of women and men who screened out were 27.9% and 26.5%, respectively (P = .19); this small difference did not significantly vary by race, ethnicity, or age group. Most common reasons for screening out were not meeting eligibility criteria (30-35%) and opting out (23%), and these did not differ by sex. Trial and research site characteristics associated with variable screen-out by sex included HIV research domain and type of hemoglobin eligibility criterion, but individual associations did not persist after adjustment for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of evidence of significantly higher trial screen-out for women, approaching more women to screen may increase female representation in HIV trials.

Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases.

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162 036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and the UK Biobank (401 219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposures: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale (range, 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). The UK Biobank recorded the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ-2; range, 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and CVD (composite of the 2). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162 036 participants from the ERFC (73%, women; mean age at baseline, 63 years [SD, 9 years]), 5078 CHD and 3932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5 years). Associations with CHD, stroke, and CVD were log linear. The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11); stroke, 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.10); and CVD, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up in the highest vs the lowest quintile of CES-D score (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 vs 1) were 36.3 vs 29.0 for CHD events, 28.0 vs 24.7 for stroke events, and 62.8 vs 53.5 for CVD events. Among 401 219 participants from the UK Biobank (55% were women, mean age at baseline, 56 years [SD, 8 years]), 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1 years). The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.14); stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06-1.14); and CVD, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up among individuals with PHQ-2 scores of 4 or higher vs 0 were 20.9 vs 14.2 for CHD events, 15.3 vs 10.2 for stroke events, and 36.2 vs 24.5 for CVD events. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563 255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels lower than the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.

Development and Use of Prediction Models for Classification of Cardiovascular Risk of Remote Indigenous Australians.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for Indigenous Australians. There is widespread belief that current tools have deficiencies for assessing CVD risk in this high-risk population. We sought to develop a 5-year CVD risk score using a wide range of known risk factors to further improve CVD risk prediction in this population. METHODS: We used clinical and demographic information on Indigenous people aged between 30 and 74 years without a history of CVD events who participated in the Well Person's Health Check (WPHC), a community-based survey. Baseline assessments were conducted between 1998 and 2000, and data were linked to administrative hospitalisation and death records for identification of CVD events. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the 5-year CVD risk, and the Harrell's c-statistic and the modified Hosmer-Lemeshow (mH-L) χ2 statistic to assess the model discrimination and calibration, respectively. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 1,583 individuals (48.1% male; mean age 45.0 year). The risk score consisted of sex, age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, waist circumference, triglycerides, and albumin creatinine ratio. The bias-corrected c-statistic was 0.72 and the bias-corrected mH-L χ2 statistic was 12.01 (p-value, 0.212), indicating good discrimination and calibration, respectively. Using our risk score, the CVD risk of the Indigenous Australians could be stratified to a greater degree compared to a recalibrated Framingham risk score. CONCLUSIONS: A seven-factor risk score could satisfactorily stratify 5-year risk of CVD in an Indigenous Australian cohort. These findings inform future research targeting CVD risk in Indigenous Australians.

Chronic condition risk factor change over time in a remote Indigenous community.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to determine change in chronic condition risk factors in a remote Indigenous community following a 3-year period of community-led health promotion initiatives. METHODS: Data were compared between two cross-sectional surveys of Indigenous Australian community residents before and after health promotion activities, and longitudinal analysis of participants present at both surveys using multilevel mixed-effects regression. RESULTS: At baseline, 294 (53% women; mean age 35 years) participated and 218 attended the second survey (56% women, mean age 40 years), and 87 attended both. Body composition, blood pressure and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio remained stable between baseline and follow-up. After adjusting for age and sex, haemoglobin A1c significantly increased (from 57 to 63 mmol/mol (7.5% to 8.1%), p=0.021) for those with diabetes. Increases were also observed for total cholesterol (from 4.4 to 4.6 mmol/L, p=0.006) and triglycerides (from 1.5 to 1.6 mmol/L, p=0.019), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels improved (from 0.98 to 1.02 mmol/L, p=0.018). Self-reported smoking prevalence was high but stable between baseline (57%) and follow-up (56%). Similar results were observed in the longitudinal analysis to the cross-sectional survey comparison. CONCLUSION: Community-led health promotion initiatives may have had some benefits on chronic condition risk factors, including stabilisation of body composition, in this remote Indigenous community. Given that less favourable trends were observed for diabetes and total cholesterol over a short time period and smoking prevalence remained high, policy initiatives that address social and economic disadvantage are needed alongside community-led health promotion initiatives.

External validation and comparison of four cardiovascular risk prediction models with data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the 2013 Pooled Cohort Risk Equation (PCE-ASCVD) for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an Australian population; to compare this performance with that of three frequently used Framingham-based CVD risk prediction models. DESIGN: Prospective national population-based cohort study. SETTING: 42 randomly selected urban and non-urban areas in six Australian states and the Northern Territory. PARTICIPANTS: 5453 adults aged 40-74 years enrolled in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study and followed until November 2011. We excluded participants who had CVD at baseline or for whom data required for risk model calculations were missing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predicted and observed 10-year CVD risks (adjusted for treatment drop-in); performance (calibration and discrimination) of four CVD risk prediction models: 1991 Framingham, 2008 Framingham, 2008 office-based Framingham, 2013 PCE-ASCVD. RESULTS: The performance of the 2013 PCE-ASCVD model was slightly better than 1991 Framingham, and each was better the two 2008 Framingham risk models, both in men and women. However, all four models overestimated 10-year CVD risk, particularly for patients in higher deciles of predicted risk. The 2013 PCE-ASCVD (7.5% high risk threshold) identified 46% of men and 18% of women as being at high risk; the 1991 Framingham model (20% threshold) identified 17% of men and 2% of women as being at high risk. Only 16% of men and 11% of women identified as being at high risk by the 2013 PCE-ASCVD experienced a CV event within 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 PCE-ASCVD or 1991 Framingham should be used as CVD risk models in Australian. However, the CVD high risk threshold for initiating CVD primary preventive therapy requires reconsideration.

Early invasive squamous cell carcinoma recurrence rates: A study examining surgical margins, tumor surface diameter, invasion depth, and grade of differentiation in 1296 cases over 9 years.

BACKGROUND: Invasive squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is typically treated by surgical excision. METHODS: Consecutive SCC excisions were reviewed prospectively in a single Australian center from 2009 to 2017. Cases were examined for recurrence by histopathologic margins, microscopic tumor surface diameter, invasion depth, grade of differentiation, and anatomic site. RESULTS: Over 9 years, 1296 cases were collected. By grade of differentiation maximum average microscopic surface diameters ranged from 8.0 to 9.6 mm and maximum average depths from 1.3 to 2.5 mm. Minimum average histopathologic margins for well, moderate, and poorly differentiated SCC, respectively, were 1.4, 1.1, and 1.3 mm. Recurrence occurred in 1.7% of well (n = 18/1084), 1.8% moderate (n = 3/165) and 6.4% in poorly differentiated (n = 3/47) SCC. No recurrence occurred beyond a histopathologic margin of 3.5 mm for well and 2.5 mm for moderately differentiated SCC. Highest recurrence for well-differentiated SCC by anatomic site was the lip (7.0%) then ear (4.6%). CONCLUSION: We found a recurrence rate of 1.0% for histopathologic margins of 1.5 mm with early well-differentiated SCC. The grade of differentiation and anatomic site had a larger influence on recurrence rates compared to the histopathologic margins. Poorly differentiated SCC and ear or lip sites require wider surgical margins.

Contribution of cardiometabolic risk factors to estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in Indigenous Australians with and without albuminuria - the eGFR Follow-up Study.

AIM: We assessed associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline according to baseline albuminuria to identify potential treatment targets in Indigenous Australians. METHODS: The eGFR Follow-up Study is a longitudinal cohort of 520 Indigenous Australians. Linear regression was used to estimate associations between baseline cardiometabolic risk factors and annual Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFR change (mL/min per 1.73m2 /year), among those classified with baseline normoalbuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) <3 mg/mmol; n = 297), microalbuminuria (uACR 3-30 mg/mmol; n = 114) and macroalbuminuria (uACR ≥30 mg/mmol; n = 109). RESULTS: After a median of 3 years follow-up, progressive declines of the age- and sex-adjusted mean eGFR were observed across albuminuria categories (-2.0 [-2.6 to -1.4], -2.5 [-3.7 to -1.3] and -6.3 [-7.8 to -4.9] mL/min per 1.72m2 /year). Although a borderline association was observed between greater baseline haemoglobin A1c and eGFR decline in those with macroalbuminuria (P = 0.059), relationships were not significant in those with microalbuminuria (P = 0.187) or normoalbuminuria (P = 0.23). Greater baseline blood pressure, C-reactive protein, waist-to-hip ratio and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol showed non-significant trends with greater eGFR decline in the presence of albuminuria. CONCLUSION: Over a 3 year period, marked eGFR decline was observed with greater baseline albuminuria. Cardiometabolic risk factors were not strong predictors for eGFR decline in Indigenous Australians without albuminuria. Longer follow-up may elucidate the role of these predictors and other mechanisms in chronic kidney disease progression in this population.

Joint associations of smoking and television viewing time on cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Excessive sitting time and smoking are pro-inflammatory lifestyle factors that are associated with both cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, their joint associations have not been investigated. We examined the associations of television (TV) viewing time with cancer and CVD mortality, according to smoking status, among 7,498 non-smokers (34% ex-smokers) and 1,409 current-smokers in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study. During 117,506 person-years (median 13.6 years) of follow-up, there were 346 cancer and 209 CVD-related deaths. Including an interaction between TV time and smoking status in the model significantly improved the goodness of fit for cancer (p = 0.01) but not CVD mortality (p = 0.053). In the multivariate-adjusted model, every additional hr/d of TV time was associated with increased risk of cancer-related (HR 1.23; 95% CI 1.08-1.40), but not CVD-related mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 0.97-1.38) in current-smokers. Elevated multivariate-adjusted cancer mortality HRs were observed for current-smokers watching 2 to <4 hr/d (HR 1.45; 95% CI 0.78-2.71) and ≥4 hr/d (HR 2.26; 95% CI 1.10-4.64), compared to those watching <2 hr/d. Current-smokers watching 2 to <4 hr/d (HR 1.07; 95% CI 0.45-2.53) and ≥4 hr/d (HR 1.92; 95% CI 0.76-4.84) did not have a significantly higher risk of CVD mortality, compared to <2 hr/d. No associations were observed for non-smokers. These findings show an association of TV, a common sedentary behavior, with cancer mortality in current-smokers. The association with CVD mortality was less clear. Further exploration in larger data sets is warranted. Limiting TV viewing time may be of benefit in reducing cancer mortality risk in current-smokers.