Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Uptake of interferon-free DAA therapy among HCV-infected decompensated cirrhosis patients and evidence for decreased mortality.

Interferon-free DAA therapies have recently been licensed for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Our aim was to describe factors associated with uptake of IFN-free DAAs in DC patients and to compare mortality risk and hospital admission rates between pre-DAA and DAA eras. This observational study used record-linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and national inpatient hospitalization and mortality registers. For the DAA uptake analysis, the study population (n = 297) was restricted to patients alive on 1 November 2014, and Cox regression was used to estimate uptake associated with various covariates. For the Cox regression of mortality comparing pre-DAA and DAA eras, the study population (n = 624) comprised those diagnosed with DC in 2005-2018; follow-up was censored at two years. DAA uptake was 63% overall and was significantly higher for treatment-experienced patients (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.64, 95% CI:1.14-2.34), genotype 1 vs. other genotypes (aHR = 1.55. 95% CI:1.15-2.10) and lower for persons diagnosed with DC pre-2014 (0.47, 95% CI:0.33-0.68) and in Greater Glasgow (0.64, 95% CI:0.47-0.88). The intention-to-treat SVR rate was 89% (95% CI:83-93%). All-cause and liver-related mortality risk were significantly reduced among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era (November 2014-December 2018) compared with the pre-DAA era (2005-October 2014) (aHRs of 0.68, 95% CI:0.49-0.93; 0.69, 95% CI:0.50-0.95, respectively); in contrast, hospital admission rates were higher in the DAA era (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.04-1.26). The majority of HCV-infected DC patients engaged with specialist services can be treated with IFN-free DAAs. Improved survival among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era supports the beneficial impact of IFN-free therapies among those with advanced liver disease.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.

Liver transplant listing for hepatitis C-associated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma has fallen in the United Kingdom since the introduction of direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Following the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), there have been reports of declining incidence of hepatitis C (HCV)-related liver disease as a liver transplantation indication. In this study, we assessed the impact of DAA on liver transplant indications in the UK and waiting list outcomes for patients with HCV. We assessed UK adult elective liver transplant registrants between 2006 and 2017. The aetiology of liver disease at registration was reclassified using an accepted hierarchical system and changes were assessed over time and compared before and after the introduction of DAA. Registration UKELD scores and 1-year waiting list outcomes were also compared. The proportion of waiting list patients registered with HCV-related cirrhosis reduced after the introduction of DAA from 10.5% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2016 (P < 0.001). Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) was the leading indication for liver transplantation followed by liver cancer (26.1% and 18.4% in 2016, respectively). The proportion of registrations with Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV reduced from 46.4% in 2013 to 33.7% in 2016 (P = 0.002). For patients with HCV-related cirrhosis at one year the outcomes of death, transplantation, delisting due to improvement or deterioration and awaiting a graft at 1 year were similar. For patients with HCV-related HCC, the proportion dying at 1 year reduced significantly from 2.9% to 0.0% (P = 0.04). These data demonstrate an association between DAA and reduced listing rates for HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, but no significant changes in waiting list outcomes other than reduced mortality in the HCC group.

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

UNLABELLED: The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care.

Portopulmonary hypertension: Still an appropriate consideration for liver transplantation?

Liver transplantation (LT) in patients with portopulmonary hypertension (PoPH) has historically resulted in unpredictable and often poor outcomes. The United Kingdom experience for the period 1992-2012 is reported in this article. A retrospective analysis of patients, preoperatively fulfilling the PoPH European Respiratory Society Task Force on Pulmonary-Hepatic Vascular Disorders diagnostic criteria was conducted across all UK LT centers. Data collection included comorbidities, use of preoperative and postoperative pharmacotherapy, patient survival, and cause of death. To enable survival stratification, PoPH was classified as mild, moderate, or severe based on mean pulmonary pressure of <35 mm Hg, 35-49 mm Hg, and ≥50 mm Hg, respectively. Of 127 patients reported to have PoPH, just 28 fulfilled the diagnostic criteria (14 mild, 9 moderate, 5 severe). Twenty (71.4%) patients were male with median age and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease of 50 years (range, 23-62 years) and 18 (range, 6-43), respectively. Twelve (42.9%) patients died within 5 years of LT. The majority of deaths (10 of 12; 83%) occurred within the first 6 months after LT, aetiologies of which included right heart failure (n = 3), progressive PoPH (n = 2), and sepsis (n = 2). Of those receiving preoperative pharmacotherapy (n = 8), 5 are currently alive and were classified as mild to moderate PoPH. Both severe PoPH patients optimized preoperatively with pharmacotherapy died within a year of LT. Development of effective vasodilatory therapies in the setting of pulmonary arterial hypertension has led to a dramatic improvement in patient survival. The available data indicate that in this era of pharmacotherapy, PoPH in isolation no longer represents a valid consideration to transplant. Liver Transplantation 22 1637-1642 2016 AASLD.

A medical device-grade T1 and ECV phantom for global T1 mapping quality assurance-the T1 Mapping and ECV Standardization in cardiovascular magnetic resonance (T1MES) program.

BACKGROUND: T1 mapping and extracellular volume (ECV) have the potential to guide patient care and serve as surrogate end-points in clinical trials, but measurements differ between cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) scanners and pulse sequences. To help deliver T1 mapping to global clinical care, we developed a phantom-based quality assurance (QA) system for verification of measurement stability over time at individual sites, with further aims of generalization of results across sites, vendor systems, software versions and imaging sequences. We thus created T1MES: The T1 Mapping and ECV Standardization Program. METHODS: A design collaboration consisting of a specialist MRI small-medium enterprise, clinicians, physicists and national metrology institutes was formed. A phantom was designed covering clinically relevant ranges of T1 and T2 in blood and myocardium, pre and post-contrast, for 1.5 T and 3 T. Reproducible mass manufacture was established. The device received regulatory clearance by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Conformité Européene (CE) marking. RESULTS: The T1MES phantom is an agarose gel-based phantom using nickel chloride as the paramagnetic relaxation modifier. It was reproducibly specified and mass-produced with a rigorously repeatable process. Each phantom contains nine differently-doped agarose gel tubes embedded in a gel/beads matrix. Phantoms were free of air bubbles and susceptibility artifacts at both field strengths and T1 maps were free from off-resonance artifacts. The incorporation of high-density polyethylene beads in the main gel fill was effective at flattening the B 1 field. T1 and T2 values measured in T1MES showed coefficients of variation of 1 % or less between repeat scans indicating good short-term reproducibility. Temperature dependency experiments confirmed that over the range 15-30 °C the short-T1 tubes were more stable with temperature than the long-T1 tubes. A batch of 69 phantoms was mass-produced with random sampling of ten of these showing coefficients of variations for T1 of 0.64 ± 0.45 % and 0.49 ± 0.34 % at 1.5 T and 3 T respectively. CONCLUSION: The T1MES program has developed a T1 mapping phantom to CE/FDA manufacturing standards. An initial 69 phantoms with a multi-vendor user manual are now being scanned fortnightly in centers worldwide. Future results will explore T1 mapping sequences, platform performance, stability and the potential for standardization.

Impact of primary biliary cirrhosis on perceived quality of life: the UK-PBC national study.

UNLABELLED: Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) has a complex clinical phenotype, with debate about the extent and specificity of frequently described systemic symptoms such as fatigue. The aim of this study was to use a national patient cohort of 2,353 patients recruited from all clinical centers in the UK to explore the impact of disease on perceived life quality. Clinical data regarding diagnosis, therapy, and biochemical status were collected and have been reported previously. Detailed symptom phenotyping using recognized and validated symptom assessment tools including the PBC-40 was also undertaken and is reported here. Perception of poor quality of life and impaired health status was common in PBC patients (35% and 46%, respectively) and more common than in an age-matched and sex-matched community control group (6% and 15%, P < 0.0001 for both). Fatigue and symptoms of social dysfunction were associated with impaired perceived quality of life using multivariate analysis. Fatigue was the symptom with the greatest impact. Depression was a significant factor, but appeared to be a manifestation of complex symptom burden rather than a primary event. Fatigue had its greatest impact on perceived quality of life when accompanied by symptoms of social dysfunction, suggesting that maintenance of social networks is critical for minimizing the impact of fatigue. CONCLUSION: The symptom burden in PBC, which is unrelated to disease severity or ursodeoxycholic acid response, is significant and complex and results in significant quality of life deficit. The complexity of symptom burden, and its lack of relation to disease severity and treatment response, suggest that specific approaches to symptom management are warranted that address both symptom biology and social impact.

The diversity and management of chronic hepatitis B virus infections in the United Kingdom: a wake-up call.

BACKGROUND: Through migration, diversity of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has changed, affecting disease burden and control. We describe clinical and viral characteristics of chronic HBV in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A total of 698 individuals with chronic HBV infection were recruited from referral liver centers. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. RESULTS: Sixty-one percent of patients were male, 80% were not born in the United Kingdom, and the largest ethnicity was East/Southeast Asian (36%). Twenty-two percent were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seropositive; 20.4% (59/289) had cirrhosis and 10 (1.7%) had hepatocellular carcinoma. Genotype D was most common (31%) followed by A, C, B, and E (20%, 20%, 19%, and 9%, respectively). Genotype was significantly associated with country of birth, length of time in the United Kingdom, HBeAg status, and precore and basal core promoter mutations. One-third were on treatment, with men independently more likely to be treated. Only 18% of those on treatment were on recommended first-line therapies, and 30% were on lamivudine monotherapy. Among treated individuals, 27% had antiviral drug resistance. Testing rates for human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, and delta coinfections were low. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated diversity of chronic HBV infections in UK patients, suggesting that optimal management requires awareness of the variable patterns of chronic HBV in countries of origin. We also found less-than-optimal clinical management practices, possible gender-based treatment bias, and the need to improve testing for coinfections.

The impact of liver transplantation on the phenotype of primary biliary cirrhosis patients in the UK-PBC cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver transplantation improves survival in end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), but the benefit for systemic symptoms including fatigue is less clear. The aim of this study was to utilise the comprehensive UK-PBC Research Cohort, including 380 post-transplant patients and 2300 non-transplanted patients, to answer key questions regarding transplantation for PBC. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of post-transplant PBC patients and case-matched non-transplanted patients. Detailed clinical information was collected, together with patient systemic symptom impact data using validated assessment tools. RESULTS: Over 25% of patients in the transplant cohort were grafted within 2 years of PBC diagnosis suggesting advanced disease at presentation. Transplanted patients were significantly younger at presentation than non-transplanted (mean 7 years) and >35% of all patients in the UK-PBC cohort who presented under 50 years had already undergone liver transplantation at the study censor point (>50% were treatment failures (post-transplant or unresponsive to UDCA)). Systemic symptom severity (fatigue and cognitive symptoms) was identical in female post-transplant patients and matched non-transplanted controls and unrelated to disease recurrence or immunosuppression type. In males, symptoms were worse in transplanted than in non-transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: Age at presentation is a major risk factor for progression to transplant (as well as UDCA non-response) in PBC. Although both confirmatory longitudinal studies, and studies utilising objective as well as subjective measures of function, are needed if we are to address the question definitively, we found no evidence of improved systemic symptoms after liver transplantation in PBC and patients should be advised accordingly. Consideration needs to be given to enhancing rehabilitation approaches to improve function and life quality after liver transplant for PBC.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making.

Background and Aims: Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C. Methods: We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2. Results: The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models. Conclusion: Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Impact of Regional Organ Sharing and Allocation in the UK Northern Liver Alliance on Waiting Time to Liver Transplantation and Waitlist Survival.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, liver transplantation (LT) is undertaken in 7 supraregional centers. Until March 2018, liver grafts were offered to a center and allocated to a patient on their elective waiting list (WL) based on unit prioritization. Patients in Newcastle, Leeds, and Edinburgh with a United Kingdom Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UKELD) score ≥62 were registered on a common WL and prioritized for deceased-donor liver allocation. This was known as the Northern Liver Alliance (NLA) "top-band scheme." Organs were shared between the 3 centers, with a "payback" scheme ensuring no patient in any center was disadvantaged. We investigated whether the NLA had improved WL survival and waiting time (WT) to transplantation. METHODS: Data for this study were obtained from the UK Transplant Registry maintained by National Health Service Blood and Transplant. This study was based on adult patients registered for first elective liver transplant between April 2013 and December 2016. Non-NLA centers were controls. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate WL survival and median WT to transplant, with the log-rank test used to make comparisons; a Bonferroni correction was applied post hoc to determine pairwise differences. RESULTS: WT was significantly lower at NLA centers compared with non-NLA centers for top-band patients (23 versus 99 days, P < 0.001). However, WL survival was not significantly different for top-band patients (P > 0.999) comparing NLA with non-NLA centers. WL survival for nontop-band patients was no different (P > 0.999) comparing NLA with non-NLA centers. CONCLUSIONS: The NLA achieved its aim, providing earlier transplantation to patients with the greatest need. Nontop-band patients did not experience inferior survival.

Uptake of endoscopic screening for gastroesophageal varices and factors associated with variceal bleeding in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection and compensated cirrhosis, 2005-2016: a national database linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Primary measures for preventing morbidity and mortality associated with bleeding gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients include endoscopic screening. AIM: To identify factors associated with (a) screening and (b) first hospital admission for variceal bleeding among cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients attending specialist care in Scotland. METHODS: The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database was linked to national hospitalisation and deaths records to identify all chronic HCV patients diagnosed with compensated cirrhosis in 2005-2016 (n = 2741). The adjusted odds of being screened by calendar year period were estimated using logistic regression, and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of a first variceal bleed using Cox regression. RESULTS: About 34% were screened within the period starting 12 months before and ending 12 months after cirrhosis diagnosis. The proportion screened was stable in 2005-2010 at 42%, declining to 37% in 2011-2013 and 26% in 2014-2016. Odds of screening were decreased for age-groups <40 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.77) and 60+ years (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.94), history of antiviral therapy (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.89), and cirrhosis diagnosis in 2014-2015, compared with 2008-2010 (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52-0.86). Compared with 2008-2010, there was no evidence for an increased/decreased relative risk of a first variceal bleed in any other period, but viral clearance was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Overall screening uptake following cirrhosis diagnosis was low, and the decline in recent years is of concern. The stable bleeding risk over time may be attributable both to ongoing prevention initiatives and to changing diagnostic procedures creating a patient pool with milder disease in more recent years.

Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. METHODS: We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. FINDINGS: 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). INTERPRETATION: We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.

Stereological Analysis of Liver Biopsy Histology Sections as a Reference Standard for Validating Non-Invasive Liver Fat Fraction Measurements by MRI.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Validation of non-invasive methods of liver fat quantification requires a reference standard. However, using standard histopathology assessment of liver biopsies is problematical because of poor repeatability. We aimed to assess a stereological method of measuring volumetric liver fat fraction (VLFF) in liver biopsies and to use the method to validate a magnetic resonance imaging method for measurement of VLFF. METHODS: VLFFs were measured in 59 subjects (1) by three independent analysts using a stereological point counting technique combined with the Delesse principle on liver biopsy histological sections and (2) by three independent analysts using the HepaFat-Scan® technique on magnetic resonance images of the liver. Bland Altman statistics and intraclass correlation (IC) were used to assess the repeatability of each method and the bias between the methods of liver fat fraction measurement. RESULTS: Inter-analyst repeatability coefficients for the stereology and HepaFat-Scan® methods were 8.2 (95% CI 7.7-8.8)% and 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.5)% VLFF respectively. IC coefficients were 0.86 (95% CI 0.69-0.93) and 0.990 (95% CI 0.985-0.994) respectively. Small biases (≤3.4%) were observable between two pairs of analysts using stereology while no significant biases were observable between any of the three pairs of analysts using HepaFat-Scan®. A bias of 1.4±0.5% VLFF was observed between the HepaFat-Scan® method and the stereological method. CONCLUSIONS: Repeatability of the stereological method is superior to the previously reported performance of assessment of hepatic steatosis by histopathologists and is a suitable reference standard for validating non-invasive methods of measurement of VLFF.

Colorectal disease in liver allograft recipients -- a clinicopathological study with follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the spectrum and outcome of colorectal diseases occurring in adult liver allograft recipients. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis of clinical, microbiological and histopathological data regarding colorectal disease. PATIENTS: Forty three out of 302 adult primary liver allograft recipients were transplanted and followed up (at median 42 months) at a tertiary referral centre/teaching hospital. RESULTS: Out of 302 patients, 43 (14%) were investigated (by endoscopy and/or laparotomy) for symptoms of colorectal disease after orthotopic liver transplantation. The symptoms were: diarrhoea (n = 31); per-rectal bleeding (n = 5); and symptoms relating to pre-transplant ulcerative colitis (n = 7). Among the patients without known ulcerative colitis, per-rectal bleeding occurring early after orthotopic liver transplantation was most commonly caused by cytomegalovirus colitis and carried a poor prognosis. Excluding ulcerative colitis, the commonest causes of diarrhoea were Clostridium difficile, cytomegalovirus infection and medications, particularly during the first 2 months after orthotopic liver transplantation. No cases of colorectal graft-versus-host disease, cryptosporidiosis, amoebiasis, atypical mycobacterial infection or post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease were demonstrated. The activity of pre-transplant ulcerative colitis was unchanged or increased after orthotopic liver transplantation. Two further patients developed new-onset ulcerative colitis after orthotopic liver transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Ulcerative colitis, C. difficile, cytomegalovirus infection and medications are the commonest colorectal causes of morbidity after orthotopic liver transplantation. Adult liver allograft recipients are, however, unlikely to show certain large bowel diseases encountered in other immunosuppressed groups. Amongst non-ulcerative colitis patients, those presenting with diarrhoea show a good outcome with appropriate management, whereas those with per-rectal bleeding have a more guarded prognosis.