25-hydroxyvitamin D status and change in physical performance and strength in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study.

Low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are common among older adults and are associated with poorer physical performance and strength, but results from longitudinal studies have been inconsistent. The 25(OH)D threshold for physical performance and strength was determined, and both cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between 25(OH)D and physical performance and strength were examined, in men and women aged 71-80 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (n = 2,641). Baseline serum 25(OH)D was measured in 1998-1999, and physical performance and strength were measured at baseline and at 2- and 4-year follow-up. Piecewise regression models were used to determine 25(OH)D thresholds. Linear regression and mixed models were used to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations. The 25(OH)D thresholds were 70-80 nmol/L for physical performance and 55-70 nmol/L for strength. Participants with 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L had poorer physical performance at baseline and at 2- and 4-year follow-up than participants with 25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L (P < 0.01). Although physical performance and strength declined over 4 years of follow-up (P < 0.0001), in general, the rate of decline was not associated with baseline 25(OH)D. Older adults with low 25(OH)D concentrations had poorer physical performance over 4 years of follow-up, but low 25(OH)D concentrations were not associated with a faster rate of decline in physical performance or strength.

Analgesic use for knee and hip osteoarthritis in community-dwelling elders.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence and correlates of non-opioid and opioid analgesic use and descriptively evaluate potential undertreatment in a sample of community-dwelling elders with symptomatic knee and/or hip osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. PATIENTS: Six hundred and fifty-two participants attending the year 6 visit (2002-03) with symptomatic knee and/or hip OA. OUTCOME MEASURES: Analgesic use was defined as taking ≥1 non-opioid and/or ≥1 opioid receptor agonist. Non-opioid and opioid doses were standardized across all agents by dividing the daily dose used by the minimum effective analgesic daily dose. Inadequate pain control was defined as severe/extreme OA pain in the past 30 days from a modified Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index. RESULTS: Just over half (51.4%) reported taking at least one non-opioid analgesic and approximately 10% was taking an opioid, most (88.5%) of whom also took a non-opioid. One in five participants (19.3%) had inadequate pain control, 39% of whom were using <1 standardized daily dose of either a non-opioid or opioid analgesic. In adjusted analyses, severe/extreme OA pain was significantly associated with both non-opioid (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.44; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.49-3.99) and opioid (AOR = 2.64; 95% CI = 1.26-5.53) use. CONCLUSIONS: Although older adults with severe/extreme knee and/or hip OA pain are more likely to take analgesics than those with less severe pain, a sizable proportion takes less than therapeutic doses and thus may be undertreated. Further research is needed to examine barriers to optimal analgesic use.

Endogenous Progestogens and Colorectal Cancer Risk among Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: The role of progestogens in colorectal cancer development is poorly characterized. To address this, our group developed a highly sensitive assay to measure concentrations of seven markers of endogenous progestogen metabolism among postmenopausal women. METHODS: The markers were measured in baseline serum collected from postmenopausal women in a case-cohort study within the breast and bone follow-up to the fracture intervention trial (B∼FIT). We followed women not using exogenous hormones at baseline (1992-1993) for up to 12 years: 187 women with incident colorectal cancer diagnosed during follow-up and a subcohort of 495 women selected on strata of age and clinical center. We used adjusted Cox regression models with robust variance to estimate risk for colorectal cancer [hazard ratios (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI)]. RESULTS: High concentrations of pregnenolone and progesterone were not associated with colorectal cancer [quintile(Q)5 versus Q1: pregnenolone HR, 0.71, 95% CI, 0.40-1.25; progesterone HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.71-2.22]. A trend of increasing risk was suggested, but statistically imprecise across quintiles of 17-hydroxypregnenolone (Q2 to Q5 HRs, 0.75-1.44; P trend, 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: We used sensitive and reliable assays to measure multiple circulating markers of progestogen metabolism. Progestogens were generally unassociated with colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women. IMPACT: Our findings are consistent with most prior research on circulating endogenous sex hormones, which taken together suggest that sex hormones may not be major drivers of colorectal carcinogenesis in postmenopausal women.

Association of Endogenous Pregnenolone, Progesterone, and Related Metabolites with Risk of Endometrial and Ovarian Cancers in Postmenopausal Women: The B∼FIT Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Postmenopausal pregnenolone and/or progesterone levels in relation to endometrial and ovarian cancer risks have been infrequently evaluated. To address this, we utilized a sensitive and reliable assay to quantify prediagnostic levels of seven markers related to endogenous hormone metabolism. METHODS: Hormones were quantified in baseline serum collected from postmenopausal women in a cohort study nested within the Breast and Bone Follow-up to the Fracture Intervention Trial (B∼FIT). Women using exogenous hormones at baseline (1992-1993) were excluded. Incident endometrial (n = 65) and ovarian (n = 67) cancers were diagnosed during 12 follow-up years and compared with a subcohort of 345 women (no hysterectomy) and 413 women (no oophorectomy), respectively. Cox models with robust variance were used to estimate cancer risk. RESULTS: Circulating progesterone levels were not associated with endometrial [tertile (T)3 vs. T1 HR (95% confidence interval): 1.87 (0.85-4.11); P trend = 0.17] or ovarian cancer risk [1.16 (0.58-2.33); 0.73]. Increasing levels of the progesterone-to-estradiol ratio were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk [T3 vs. T1: 0.29 (0.09-0.95); 0.03]. Increasing levels of 17-hydroxypregnenolone were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk [0.40 (0.18-0.91); 0.03] and positively associated with ovarian cancer risk [3.11 (1.39-6.93); 0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: Using sensitive and reliable assays, this study provides novel data that endogenous progesterone levels are not strongly associated with incident endometrial or ovarian cancer risks. 17-hydroxypregnenolone was positively associated with ovarian cancer and inversely associated with endometrial cancer. IMPACT: While our results require replication in large studies, they provide further support of the hormonal etiology of endometrial and ovarian cancers.

Association of Circulating Progesterone With Breast Cancer Risk Among Postmenopausal Women.

Importance: The role of endogenous progesterone in the development of breast cancer remains largely unexplored to date, primarily owing to assay sensitivity limitations and low progesterone concentrations in postmenopausal women. Recently identified progesterone metabolites may provide insights as experimental data suggest that 5α-dihydroprogesterone (5αP) concentrations reflect cancer-promoting properties and 3α-dihydroprogesterone (3αHP) concentrations reflect cancer-inhibiting properties. Objective: To evaluate the association between circulating progesterone and progesterone metabolite levels and breast cancer risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a sensitive liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay, prediagnostic serum levels of progesterone and progesterone metabolites were quantified in a case-cohort study nested within the Breast and Bone Follow-up to the Fracture Intervention Trial (n = 15 595). Participation was limited to women not receiving exogenous hormone therapy at the time of blood sampling (1992-1993). Incident breast cancer cases (n = 405) were diagnosed during 12 follow-up years and a subcohort of 495 postmenopausal women were randomly selected within 10-year age and clinical center strata. Progesterone assays were completed in July 2017; subsequent data analyses were conducted between July 15, 2017, and December 20, 2018. Exposures: Circulating concentrations of pregnenolone, progesterone, and their major metabolites. Main Outcomes and Measures: Development of breast cancer, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for key confounders, including estradiol. Evaluation of hormone ratios and effect modification were planned a priori. Results: The present study included 405 incident breast cancer cases and a subcohort of 495 postmenopausal women; the mean (SD) age at the time of the blood draw was 67.2 (6.2) years. Progesterone concentrations were a mean (SD) of 4.6 (1.7) ng/dL. Women with higher circulating progesterone levels were at an increased risk for breast cancer per SD increase in progesterone levels (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.00-1.35; P = .048). The association with progesterone was linear in a 5-knot spline and stronger for invasive breast cancers (n = 267) (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.07-1.43; P = .004). Among women in the lowest quintile (Q1) of circulating estradiol (<6.30 pg/mL) elevated progesterone concentrations were associated with reduced breast cancer risk per SD increase in progesterone levels (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.15-0.95; P = .04) and increased risk among women in higher quintiles of estradiol (Q2-Q5; ≥6.30 pg/mL) (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04-1.35; P = .01; P = .04 for interaction). Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-cohort study of postmenopausal women, elevated circulating progesterone levels were associated with a 16% increase in the risk of breast cancer. Additional research should be undertaken to assess how postmenopausal breast cancer risk is associated with both endogenous progesterone and progesterone metabolites and their interactions with estradiol.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and risk for hip fractures.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH) vitamin D] concentration and hip fractures is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To see whether low serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations are associated with hip fractures in community-dwelling women. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: 40 clinical centers in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 400 case-patients with incident hip fracture and 400 control participants matched on the basis of age, race or ethnicity, and date of blood draw. Both groups were selected from 39 795 postmenopausal women who were not using estrogens or other bone-active therapies and who had not had a previous hip fracture. MEASUREMENTS: Serum 25(OH) vitamin D was measured and patients were followed for a median of 7.1 years (range, 0.7 to 9.3 years) to assess fractures. RESULTS: Mean serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations were lower in case-patients than in control participants (55.95 nmol/L [SD, 20.28] vs. 59.60 nmol/L [SD, 18.05]; P = 0.007), and lower serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations increased hip fracture risk (adjusted odds ratio for each 25-nmol/L decrease, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68]). Women with the lowest 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations (< or =47.5 nmol/L) had a higher fracture risk than did those with the highest concentrations (> or =70.7 nmol/L) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.71 [CI, 1.05 to 2.79]), and the risk increased statistically significantly across quartiles of serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentration (P for trend = 0.016). This association was independent of number of falls, physical function, frailty, renal function, and sex-steroid hormone levels and seemed to be partially mediated by bone resorption. LIMITATIONS: Few case-patients were nonwhite women. Bone mineral density and parathyroid hormone levels were not accounted for in the analysis. CONCLUSION: Low serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations are associated with a higher risk for hip fracture.

Evaluating the value of repeat bone mineral density measurement and prediction of fractures in older women: the study of osteoporotic fractures.

BACKGROUND: Whether repeat bone mineral density (BMD) measurement adds benefit beyond the initial BMD measurement in predicting fractures in older women is unknown. METHODS: We prospectively measured total hip BMD in 4124 older women (mean +/- SD age, 72 +/- 4 years) from 1989 to 1990 and again 8 years later. Incident nontraumatic hip and nonspine fractures were validated by radiology reports (>95% follow-up). In addition, spine fractures were defined morphometrically in 2129 of these women by lateral spine x-ray films from 1991 to 1992 and then again 11.4 years later. Prediction of fracture risk was assessed with proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic curves for BMD measures. RESULTS: Over a mean of 5 years after the repeat BMD measure, 877 women experienced an incident nontraumatic nonspine fracture (275 hip fractures). In addition, 340 women developed a spine fracture. After adjustment for age and weight change, initial and repeat BMD measurements were similarly associated with fracture risk (per unit standard deviation lower in BMD) for nonspine (hazard ratio, 1.6), spine (odds ratio, 1.8-1.9), and hip (hazard ratio, 2.0-2.2) fractures (P<.001 for all models). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) revealed no significant differences to discriminate nonspine (AUC, 0.65), spine (AUC, 0.67-0.68), or hip (AUC, 0.73-0.74) fractures between models with initial BMD, repeat BMD, or initial BMD plus change in BMD. Stratification by initial BMD t scores (normal, osteopenic, or osteoporotic), high bone loss, or hormone therapy did not alter results. CONCLUSION: In healthy, older, postmenopausal women, repeating a measurement of BMD up to 8 years later provides little additional value besides the initial BMD measurement for predicting incident fractures.

Sex Steroid Hormones and Fracture in a Multiethnic Cohort of Women: The Women's Health Initiative Study (WHI).

Context: We hypothesize that endogenous sex steroids are associated with fracture risk independent of race/ethnicity. Design and Setting: We performed a nested case-control study within the prospective Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. Incident nonspine fractures were identified in 381 black, 192 Hispanic, 112 Asian, and 46 Native American women over an average of 8.6 years. A random sample of 400 white women who experienced an incident fracture was chosen. One control was selected per case and matched on age, race/ethnicity, and blood draw date. Bioavailable estradiol (BioE2), bioavailable testosterone (BioT), and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were measured using baseline fasting serum. Conditional logistic regression models calculated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of fracture across tertiles of hormone. Results: In multivariable and race/ethnicity-adjusted models, higher BioE2 (>8.25 pg/mL) and higher BioT (>13.3 ng/dL) were associated with decreased risk of fracture (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.85; P trend = 0.001 and OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.96; P trend = 0.02, respectively). The interaction term between race/ethnicity and either BioE2 or BioT was not significant. There was no association between SHBG and fracture risk. In models stratifying by race/ethnicity, higher BioE2 was associated with a lower risk of fracture in both white women (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.87) and black women (OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.96). Higher BioT was associated with a significantly lower fracture risk in only black women (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.00), P trend = 0.03. Conclusions: Serum BioE2 and BioT are associated with fracture risk in older women irrespective of race/ethnicity and independent of established risk factors for fracture.

The excess risk of major osteoporotic fractures in hypothyroidism is driven by cumulative hyperthyroid as opposed to hypothyroid time: an observational register-based time-resolved cohort analysis.

The long-term relationship between hypothyroidism and fracture risk is challenging to dissect because of the modifying influence of subsequent thyroxine replacement with the potential for excessive replacement doses. We studied changes in serum thyrotropin concentration (TSH) over time and association with fracture risk in real-world patients presenting with elevated TSH. All TSH determinations were done in the same laboratory, which served all hospitals and general practices. The study population consisted of all adults with a first measurement of TSH >4.0 mIU/L (n = 8414) or normal TSH (n = 222,138; comparator). We used a Cox proportional hazards analysis incorporating additional time-dependent covariates to represent initiation of thyroxine replacement and cumulative number of periods with high versus low TSH after index date with a mean follow-up of 7.2 years. Elevated baseline TSH was not associated with an increased risk of hip fracture (HR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.02) or major osteoporotic fractures (HR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.05), nor was subsequent thyroxine prescription predictive of increased risk of fractures. The number of subsequent 6-month periods with low TSH-suggesting excessive thyroxine dosing-was significantly associated with increased risk of both hip fracture (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.15) and major osteoporotic fracture (HR 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.14). When gender- and age-stratified analyses for major osteoporotic fractures were undertaken, hyperthyroid time was identified as a predictor of fracture risk in postmenopausal women whereas hypothyroid time predicted increased fracture risk in men below age 75 years. In conclusion, among patients who present with an elevated TSH, the long-term risk of hip and other osteoporotic fractures is strongly related to the cumulative duration of periods with low TSH-likely from excessive replacement. An independent effect of elevated TSH could only be observed in young and middle-aged men, suggesting gender-discrepant consequences on risk.

Nulliparity and fracture risk in older women: the study of osteoporotic fractures.

Whether nulliparity increases fracture risk is unclear from prior studies, which are limited by small samples or lack of measured bone mineral density. No study has evaluated whether the effect of parity differs by skeletal site. We prospectively analyzed the relationship of parity to the risk of incident nontraumatic hip, spine, and wrist fractures in 9704 women aged 65 years or older participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures to determine if parity reduces postmenopausal fracture risk, and if so, if this risk reduction is (1) greater at weight-bearing skeletal sites and (2) independent of bone mineral density. Parity was ascertained by self-report. Incident hip and wrist fractures were determined by physician adjudication of radiology reports (mean follow-up, 9.8 years) and spine fractures by morphometric criteria on serial radiographs. The relationship of parity to hip and wrist fracture was assessed by proportional hazards models. Spine fracture risk was evaluated by logistic regression. Compared with parous women, nulliparous women (n = 1835, 19%) had an increased risk of hip and spine, but not wrist, fractures. In multivariate models, parity remained a significant predictor only for hip fracture. Nulliparous women had a 44% increased risk of hip fractures independent of hip bone mineral density (hazards ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.17-1.78). Among parous women, each additional birth reduced hip fracture risk by 9% (p = 0.03). Additionally, there were no differences in mean total hip, spine, or radial bone mineral density values between nulliparous and parous women after multivariate adjustment. In conclusion, childbearing reduces hip fracture risk by means that may be independent of hip bone mineral density.

Low 25-hydroxyvitamin D predicts the onset of mobility limitation and disability in community-dwelling older adults: the Health ABC Study.

BACKGROUND: Although low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) is prevalent among older adults and is associated with poor physical function, longitudinal studies examining vitamin D status and physical function are lacking. We examined the association between 25(OH)D, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and the onset of mobility limitation and disability over 6 years of follow-up in community-dwelling, initially well-functioning older adults participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition study (n = 2,099). METHODS: Serum 25(OH)D and PTH were measured at the 12-month follow-up visit (1998-1999). Mobility limitation and disability (any/severe difficulty walking 1/4 mile or climbing 10 steps) was assessed semiannually over 6 years of follow-up. The association between 25(OH)D, PTH, and mobility limitation and disability was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for demographics, season, behavioral characteristics, and chronic conditions. RESULTS: At baseline, 28.9% of the participants had 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L and 36.1% had 25(OH)D of 50 to <75 nmol/L. Participants with 25(OH)D <50 and 50 to <75 nmol/L were at greater risk of developing mobility limitation (HR (95% CI): 1.29 (1.04-1.61) and 1.27 (1.05-1.53), respectively) and mobility disability (HR (95% CI): 1.93 (1.32-2.81) and 1.30 (0.92-1.83), respectively) over 6 years of follow-up compared with participants with 25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L. Elevated PTH, however, was not significantly associated with developing mobility limitation or disability. CONCLUSIONS: Low 25(OH)D was associated with an increased risk of mobility limitation and disability in community-dwelling, initially well-functioning black and white older adults. Prevention or treatment of low 25(OH)D may provide a pathway for reducing the burden of mobility disability in older adults.

Epidemiology and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors for pneumonia in community-dwelling older Americans: analysis of three cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals. METHODS: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization. RESULTS: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5% and 31.5%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults < 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5% and 25.7% in those < 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model.

Change in hip bone mineral density and risk of subsequent fractures in older men.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) increases fracture risk; how changes in BMD influence fracture risk in older men is uncertain. BMD was assessed at two to three time points over 4.6 years using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for 4470 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. Change in femoral neck BMD was estimated using mixed effects linear regression models. BMD change was categorized as "accelerated" (≤-0.034 g/cm(2) ), "expected" (between 0 and -0.034 g/cm(2) ), or "maintained" (≥0 g/cm(2) ). Fractures were adjudicated by central medical record review. Multivariate proportional hazards models estimated the risk of hip, nonspine/nonhip, and nonspine fracture over 4.5 years after the final BMD measure, during which time 371 (8.3%) men experienced at least one nonspine fracture, including 78 (1.7%) hip fractures. Men with accelerated femoral neck BMD loss had an increased risk of nonspine (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-2.8); nonspine/nonhip (HR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.3); and hip fracture (HR = 6.3; 95% CI 2.7-14.8) compared with men who maintained BMD over time. No difference in risk was seen for men with expected loss. Adjustment for the initial BMD measure did not alter the results. Adjustment for the final BMD measure attenuated the change in BMD-nonspine fracture and the change in BMD-nonspine/nonhip relationships such that they were no longer significant, whereas the change in the BMD-hip fracture relationship was attenuated (HR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.1-6.4). Total hip BMD change produced similar results. Accelerated decrease in BMD is a strong, independent risk factor for hip and other nonspine fractures in men.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident hip fracture in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction is common in older adults and affects bone metabolism, but its effects on fracture risk have not been reported. We sought to determine prospectively whether older men and women with subclinical hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism have an increased risk of hip fracture. METHODS: Prospective cohort of 3567 US community-dwelling adults, 65 years or older, with biochemically defined subclinical thyroid dysfunction or euthyroidism was enrolled from June 10, 1989, through May 30, 1990, and followed up through 2004. Main outcome measures included incidence and hazard ratios (HRs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), of confirmed incident hip fractures for groups with subclinical hypothyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, and euthyroidism as defined at baseline. RESULTS: During 39 952 person-years (median follow-up, 13 years), hip fracture incidence (per 1000 men-years) was 13.65 in men with subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 29) and 10.27 in men with subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 184), both greater than 5.0 in men with euthyroidism (n = 1159). Men with subclinical hypothyroidism had a multivariable-adjusted HR of 2.31 (95% CI, 1.25-4.27); those with subclinical hyperthyroidism, 3.27 (0.99-11.30). After excluding those with baseline use of thyroid-altering medications, men with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism had a higher HR of 4.91 (95% CI, 1.13-21.27), as did men with endogenous subclinical hypothyroidism (2.45, 1.27-4.73). Hip fracture incidence (per 1000 women-years) was 8.93 in women with subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 359) and 10.90 in women with subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 142) compared with 10.18 in women with euthyroidism (n = 1694). No clear association between subclinical dysfunction and fracture was observed in women. CONCLUSIONS: Older men with subclinical hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism are at increased risk for hip fracture. Whether treatment of the subclinical syndrome reduces this risk is unknown.

Risk factors for severity and type of the hip fracture.

More severe hip fractures such as displaced femoral neck (FN) fractures and unstable intertrochanteric (IT) fractures lead to poorer outcomes, but risk factors for severe fractures have not been studied. To identify risk factors for severe types of hip fracture, we performed a prospective cohort study and obtained preoperative hip radiographs from women who sustained an incident hip fracture (excluding traumatic fractures). A single radiologist scored the severity of FN fractures by the Garden System: grades I and II, undisplaced; grades III and IV, displaced. The severity of IT hip fractures was rated by the Kyle System: grades I and II, stable; grades III and IV, unstable. A total of 249 women had FN fractures: 75 (30%) were undisplaced. A total of 213 women had IT fractures: 59 (28%) were stable. Both types of hip fracture increased with age, but older age was even more strongly associated with more severe hip fractures. Low BMD was more strongly related to undisplaced FN fractures (p interaction BMD x FN type, p = 0.0008) and stable IT fractures (p interaction BMD x IT type, p = 0.04). Similar findings were observed for estimated volumetric BMD and hip geometric parameters. Corticosteroid use was only associated with displaced FN fractures, and Parkinson's disease was only associated with stable IT fractures. Little difference was reported in the self-reported circumstances surrounding each type of fracture. In conclusion, the lower the BMD, the greater the likelihood of experiencing a hip fracture that is less displaced and more stable.

Estimates of the proportion of older white women who would be recommended for pharmacologic treatment by the new U.S. National Osteoporosis Foundation Guidelines.

The new U.S. National Osteoporosis Foundation Clinician's Guide to Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis includes criteria for recommending pharmacologic treatment based on history of hip or vertebral fracture, femoral neck (FN), or spine BMD T-scores or=3% or of major osteoporotic fracture >or=20%. The proportion of women who would be recommended for treatment by these guidelines is not known. We applied the NOF criteria for treatment to women participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). To determine how the SOF population differs from the general U.S. population of white women >or=65 yr of age, we compared women in SOF with women who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III on criteria included in the NOF treatment guidelines that were common to both cohorts. Compared with NHANES III, women in SOF had higher FN BMD and were younger. Application of NOF guidelines to SOF data estimated that at least 72% of U.S. white women >or=65 yr of age and 93% of those >or=75 yr of age would be recommended for drug treatment. Application of the new NOF Guidelines would result in recommending a very large proportion of white women in the United States for pharmacologic treatment of osteoporosis.

Added value of physical performance measures in predicting adverse health-related events: results from the Health, Aging And Body Composition Study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how three different physical performance measures (PPMs) combine for added utility in predicting adverse health events in elders. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Health, Aging and Body Composition Study. PARTICIPANTS: Three thousand twenty-four well-functioning older persons (mean age 73.6). MEASUREMENTS: Timed gait, repeated chair stands, and balance (semi- and full-tandem, and single leg stands each held for 30 seconds) tests were administered at baseline. Usual gait speed was categorized to distinguish high- and low-risk participants using the previously established 1-m/s cutpoint. The same population-percentile (21.3%) was used to identify cutpoints for the repeated chair stands (17.1 seconds) and balance (53.0 seconds) tests. Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the added value of PPMs in predicting mortality, hospitalization, and (severe) mobility limitation events over 6.9 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Risk estimates for developing adverse health-related events were similarly large for each of the three high-risk groups considered separately. Having more PPM scores at the high-risk level was associated with a greater risk of developing adverse health-related events. When all three PPMs were considered, having only one poor performance was sufficient to indicate a highly significantly higher risk of (severe) lower extremity and mortality events. CONCLUSION: Although gait speed is considered to be the most important predictor of adverse health events, these findings demonstrate that poor performance on other tests of lower extremity function are equally prognostic. This suggests that chair stand and standing balance performance may be adequate substitutes when gait speed is unavailable.

Effects of PTH and alendronate on type I collagen isomerization in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: the PaTH study.

Fracture efficacy of PTH and alendronate (ALN) is only partly explained by changes in BMD, and bone collagen properties have been suggested to play a role. We analyzed the effects of PTH(1-84) and ALN on urinary alphaalpha/betabeta CTX ratio, a marker of type I collagen isomerization and maturation in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. In the first year of the previously published PaTH study, postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were assigned to PTH(1-84) (100 microg/d; n = 119), ALN (10 mg/d; n = 60), or PTH and ALN together (n = 59). We analyzed patients on ALN alone (n = 60) and a similar number of patients assigned to PTH alone (n = 63). During the second year, women on PTH in the first year were reallocated to placebo (n = 31) or ALN (n = 32) and women with ALN continued on ALN. During the first year, there was no significant change in alphaalpha/betabeta CTX ratio with PTH or ALN. At 24 mo, there was a marked increase of the alphaalpha/betabeta CTX ratio in women who had received PTH during the first year, followed by a second year of placebo (median: +45.5, p < 0.001) or ALN (+55.2%, p < 0.001). Conversely, the alphaalpha/betabeta CTX ratio only slightly increased (+16%, p < 0.05) after 2 yr of continued ALN. In conclusion, treatment with PTH(1-84) for 1 yr followed by 1 yr of placebo or ALN may be associated with decreased type I collagen isomerization. The influence of these biochemical changes of type I collagen on bone fracture resistance remains to be studied.

Biochemical markers of bone turnover and their association with bone marrow lesions.

INTRODUCTION: Our objective was to determine whether markers of bone resorption and formation could serve as markers for the presence of bone marrow lesions (BMLs). METHODS: We conducted an analysis of data from the Boston Osteoarthritis of the Knee Study (BOKS). Knee magnetic resonance images were scored for BMLs using a semiquantitative grading scheme. In addition, a subset of persons with BMLs underwent quantitative volume measurement of their BML, using a proprietary software method. Within the BOKS population, 80 people with BMLs and 80 without BMLs were selected for the purposes of this case-control study. Bone biomarkers assayed included type I collagen N-telopeptide (NTx) corrected for urinary creatinine, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, and osteocalcin. The same methods were used and applied to a nested case-control sample from the Framingham study, in which BMD assessments allowed evaluation of this as a covariate. Logistic regression models were fit using BML as the outcome and biomarkers, age, sex, and body mass index as predictors. An receiver operating characteristic curve was generated for each model and the area under the curve assessed. RESULTS: A total of 151 subjects from BOKS with knee OA were assessed. The mean (standard deviation) age was 67 (9) years and 60% were male. Sixty-nine per cent had maximum BML score above 0, and 48% had maximum BML score above 1. The only model that reached statistical significance used maximum score of BML above 0 as the outcome. Ln-NTx (Ln is the natural log) exhibited a significant association with BMLs, with the odds of a BML being present increasing by 1.4-fold (95% confidence interval = 1.0-fold to 2.0-fold) per 1 standard deviation increase in the LnNTx, and with a small partial R2 of 3.05. We also evaluated 144 participants in the Framingham Osteoarthritis Study, whose mean age was 68 years and body mass index was 29 kg/m2, and of whom 40% were male. Of these participants 55% had a maximum BML score above 0. The relationship between NTx and maximum score of BML above 0 revealed a significant association, with an odds ratio fo 1.7 (95% confidence interval = 1.1 to 2.7) after adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Serum NTx was weakly associated with the presence of BMLs in both study samples. This relationship was not strong and we would not advocate the use of NTx as a marker of the presence of BMLs.

Cartilage markers and their association with cartilage loss on magnetic resonance imaging in knee osteoarthritis: the Boston Osteoarthritis Knee Study.

We used data from a longitudinal observation study to determine whether markers of cartilage turnover could serve as predictors of cartilage loss on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We conducted a study of data from the Boston Osteoarthritis of the Knee Study (BOKS), a completed natural history study of knee osteoarthritis (OA). All subjects in the study met American College of Rheumatology criteria for knee OA. Baseline and follow-up knee magnetic resonance images were scored for cartilage loss by means of the WORMS (Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score) semiquantitative grading scheme. Within the BOKS population, 80 subjects who experienced cartilage loss and 80 subjects who did not were selected for the purposes of this nested case control study. We assessed the baseline levels of cartilage degradation and synthesis products by means of assays for type I and II cleavage by collagenases (Col2:3/4C(short) or C1,2C), type II cleavage only with Col2:3/4C(longmono) (C2C), type II synthesis (C-propeptide), the C-telopeptide of type II (Col2CTx), aggrecan 846 epitope, and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP). We performed a logistic regression to examine the relation of levels of each biomarker to the risk of cartilage loss in any knee. All analyses were adjusted for gender, age, and body mass index (BMI); results stratified by gender gave similar results. One hundred thirty-seven patients with symptomatic knee OA were assessed. At baseline, the mean (standard deviation) age was 67 (9) years and 54% were male. Seventy-six percent of the subjects had radiographic tibiofemoral OA (Kellgren & Lawrence grade of greater than or equal to 2) and the remainder had patellofemoral OA. With the exception of COMP, none of the other biomarkers was a statistically significant predictor of cartilage loss. For a 1-unit increase in COMP, the odds of cartilage loss increased 6.09 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34 to 27.67). After the analysis of COMP was adjusted for age, gender, and BMI, the risk for cartilage loss was 6.35 (95% CI 1.36 to 29.65). Among subjects with symptomatic knee OA, a single measurement of increased COMP predicted subsequent cartilage loss on MRI. The other biochemical markers of cartilage synthesis and degradation do not facilitate prediction of cartilage loss. With the exception of COMP, if changes in cartilage turnover in patients with symptomatic knee OA are associated with cartilage loss, they do not appear to affect systemic biomarker levels.