RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication of cardiac surgery that is associated with higher morbidity, longer hospital stay, cognitive decline, and mortality. Preoperative assessments may help to identify patients´ POD risk. However, a standardized screening assessment for POD risk has not been established. DESIGN: Prospective observational FINd DElirium RIsk factors (FINDERI) study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥50 years undergoing cardiac surgery. MEASUREMENTS: The primary aim was to analyze the predictive value of the Delirium Risk Screening Questionnaire (DRSQ) prior to cardiac surgery. Secondary aims are to investigate cognitive, frailty, and geriatric assessments, and to use data-driven machine learning (ML) in predicting POD. Predictive properties were assessed using receiver operating characteristics analysis and multivariate approaches (regularized LASSO regression and decision trees). RESULTS: We analyzed a data set of 504 patients (68.3 ± 8.2 years, 21.4% women) who underwent cardiac surgery. The incidence of POD was 21%. The preoperatively administered DRSQ showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62, 0.73), and the predictive OR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.15, 1.35, p <0.001). Using a ML approach, a three-rule decision tree prediction model including DRSQ (score>7), Trail Making Test B (time>118), and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (score ≤ 22) was identified. The AUC of the three-rule decision tree on the training set was 0.69 (95% CI 0.63, 0.75) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51, 0.73) on the validation set. CONCLUSION: Both the DRSQ and the three-rule decision tree might be helpful in predicting POD risk before cardiac surgery.