The evaluation of an e-learning prescribing course for general practice.

Prescribed medication may lead to significant morbidity or mortality as a result of these medications causing adverse events, or because of a prescribing error. E-learning is a common tool used in supporting training in prescribing. This paper describes the development of an e-learning course and the subsequent evaluation undertaken by the users with the aim of obtaining an effective e-learning course for prescribing. The e-learning course was developed by general practitioners and pharmacists and focussed on the principles of good prescribing, examined the common reasons for prescribing errors, and was evaluated using self-reported quantitative and qualitative measures. Scores significantly increased on an assessment given before and after the course. The majority of respondents reported that the e-learning course had a positive impact on prescribing knowledge, skills and attitudes, with medication reviews the top area where a change in prescribing practice was reported. Over 90% of the respondents agreed that the e-learning course was easy to use and a useful part of their continuing professional education. This study shows that clinicians recognise the on-going need for training in prescribing, but the lack of training is one of the factors contributing to errors, which suggests that more education is needed, not just for GPs in training, but for qualified GPs as well.

Development of the prototype concise safe systems checklist tool for general practice.

BACKGROUND: In the course of producing a patient safety toolkit for primary care, we identified the need for a concise safe-systems checklist designed to address areas of patient safety which are under-represented in mandatory requirements and existing tools. This paper describes the development of a prototype checklist designed to be used in busy general practice environments to provide an overview of key patient safety related processes and prompt practice wide-discussion. METHODS: An extensive narrative review and a survey of world-wide general practice organisations were used to identify existing primary care patient safety issues and tools. A RAND panel of international experts rated the results, summarising the findings for importance and relevance. The checklist was created to include areas that are not part of established patient safety tools or mandatory and legal requirements. Four main themes were identified: information flow, practice safety information, prescribing, and use of IT systems from which a 13 item checklist was trialled in 16 practices resulting in a nine item prototype checklist, which was tested in eight practices. Qualitative data on the utility and usability of the prototype was collected through a series of semi-structured interviews. RESULTS: In testing the prototype four of nine items on the checklist were achieved by all eight practices. Three items were achieved by seven of eight practices and two items by six of eight practices. Participants welcomed the brevity and ease of use of the prototype, that it might be used within time scales at their discretion and its ability to engage a range of practice staff in relevant discussions on the safety of existing processes. The items relating to prescribing safety were considered particularly useful. CONCLUSIONS: As a result of this work the concise patient safety checklist tool, specifically designed for general practice, has now been made available as part of an online Patient Safety Toolkit hosted by the Royal College of General Practitioners. Senior practice staff such as practice managers and GP partners should find it a useful tool to understand the safety of less explored yet important safety processes within the practice.

Analyzing theory of mind impairment in patients with behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia.

OBJECTIVE: Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and theory of mind (ToM) have common neuroanatomical aspects. This pilot study analyzed the qualitative features of ToM relatively to the site of prefrontal atrophy, aiming to identify a neurobehavioral pattern of bvFTD. METHOD: Fourteen bvFTD patients were compared with 14 healthy subjects with similar age, years of schooling, gender distribution, and social background. The faux pas task (FPT) measured the recognition and comprehension of faux pas (FP) and awareness of the factual details on 20 stories. Magnetic resonance assessed prefrontal atrophy. RESULTS: The bvFTD patients were significantly impaired in FP recognition and comprehension and in attribution of non-existent FP. Qualitative analysis revealed five types of errors: misidentification of characters, misidentification of emotions, excessive cohesiveness to the factual context, delusional interpretations, and non-responses. The FPT recognition and comprehension scores were unrelated to story factual details or other neuropsychological performance. Conversely, the FP comprehension scores related to disease duration, the delusional errors to disease duration and prefrontal orbital atrophy, and the cohesiveness errors to age and prefrontal dorsolateral atrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In bvFTD, ToM is characterized by misinterpretation of mental states and concrete thinking, which is related to disease severity and distinct areas of prefrontal atrophy. This neurobehavioral pattern may be a marker for bvFDT.

Identifying 'avoidable harm' in family practice: a RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method consensus study.

BACKGROUND: Health care-related harm is an internationally recognized threat to public health. The United Kingdom's national health services demonstrate that upwards of 90% of health care encounters can be delivered in ambulatory settings. Other countries are transitioning to more family practice-based health care systems, and efforts to understand avoidable harm in these settings is needed. METHODS: We developed 100 scenarios reflecting a range of diseases and informed by the World Health Organization definition of 'significant harm'. Scenarios included different types of patient safety incidents occurring by commission and omission, demonstrated variation in timeliness of intervention, and conditions where evidence-based guidelines are available or absent. We conducted a two-round RAND / UCLA Appropriateness Method consensus study with a panel of family practitioners in England to define "avoidable harm" within family practice. Panelists rated their perceptions of avoidability for each scenario. We ran a k-means cluster analysis of avoidability ratings. RESULTS: Panelists reached consensus for 95 out of 100 scenarios. The panel agreed avoidable harm occurs when a patient safety incident could have been probably, or totally, avoided by the timely intervention of a health care professional in family practice (e.g. investigations, treatment) and / or an administrative process (e.g. referrals, alerts in electronic health records, procedures for following up results) in accordance with accepted evidence-based practice and clinical governance. Fifty-four scenarios were deemed avoidable, whilst 31 scenarios were rated unavoidable and reflected outcomes deemed inevitable regardless of family practice intervention. Scenarios with low avoidability ratings (1 s or 2 s) were not represented by the categories that were used to generate scenarios, whereas scenarios with high avoidability ratings (7 s 8 s or 9 s) were represented by these a priori categories. DISCUSSION: The findings from this RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method study define the characteristics and conditions that can be used to standardize measurement of outcomes for primary care patient safety. CONCLUSION: We have developed a definition of avoidable harm that has potential for researchers and practitioners to apply across primary care settings, and bolster international efforts to design interventions to target avoidable patient safety incidents that cause the most significant harm to patients.

Optimal healthcare delivery to care homes in the UK: a realist evaluation of what supports effective working to improve healthcare outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: care home residents have high healthcare needs not fully met by prevailing healthcare models. This study explored how healthcare configuration influences resource use. METHODS: a realist evaluation using qualitative and quantitative data from case studies of three UK health and social care economies selected for differing patterns of healthcare delivery to care homes. Four homes per area (12 in total) were recruited. A total of 239 residents were followed for 12 months to record resource-use. Overall, 181 participants completed 116 interviews and 13 focus groups including residents, relatives, care home staff, community nurses, allied health professionals and General Practitioners. RESULTS: context-mechanism-outcome configurations were identified explaining what supported effective working between healthcare services and care home staff: (i) investment in care home-specific work that legitimises and values work with care homes; (ii) relational working which over time builds trust between practitioners; (iii) care which 'wraps around' care homes; and (iv) access to specialist care for older people with dementia. Resource use was similar between sites despite differing approaches to healthcare. There was greater utilisation of GP resource where this was specifically commissioned but no difference in costs between sites. CONCLUSION: activities generating opportunities and an interest in healthcare and care home staff working together are integral to optimal healthcare provision in care homes. Outcomes are likely to be better where: focus and activities legitimise ongoing contact between healthcare staff and care homes at an institutional level; link with a wider system of healthcare; and provide access to dementia-specific expertise.

Professional, structural and organisational interventions in primary care for reducing medication errors.

BACKGROUND: Medication-related adverse events in primary care represent an important cause of hospital admissions and mortality. Adverse events could result from people experiencing adverse drug reactions (not usually preventable) or could be due to medication errors (usually preventable). OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of professional, organisational and structural interventions compared to standard care to reduce preventable medication errors by primary healthcare professionals that lead to hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and mortality in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases, and two trial registries on 4 October 2016, together with reference checking, citation searching and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. We also searched several sources of grey literature. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised trials in which healthcare professionals provided community-based medical services. We also included interventions in outpatient clinics attached to a hospital where people are seen by healthcare professionals but are not admitted to hospital. We only included interventions that aimed to reduce medication errors leading to hospital admissions, emergency department visits, or mortality. We included all participants, irrespective of age, who were prescribed medication by a primary healthcare professional. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently extracted data. Each of the outcomes (hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and mortality), are reported in natural units (i.e. number of participants with an event per total number of participants at follow-up). We presented all outcomes as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used the GRADE tool to assess the certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 30 studies (169,969 participants) in the review addressing various interventions to prevent medication errors; four studies addressed professional interventions (8266 participants) and 26 studies described organisational interventions (161,703 participants). We did not find any studies addressing structural interventions. Professional interventions included the use of health information technology to identify people at risk of medication problems, computer-generated care suggested and actioned by a physician, electronic notification systems about dose changes, drug interventions and follow-up, and educational interventions on drug use aimed at physicians to improve drug prescriptions. Organisational interventions included medication reviews by pharmacists, nurses or physicians, clinician-led clinics, and home visits by clinicians.There is a great deal of diversity in types of professionals involved and where the studies occurred. However, most (61%) of the interventions were conducted by pharmacists or a combination of pharmacists and medical doctors. The studies took place in many different countries; 65% took place in either the USA or the UK. They all ranged from three months to 4.7 years of follow-up, they all took place in primary care settings such as general practice, outpatients' clinics, patients' homes and aged-care facilities. The participants in the studies were adults taking medications and the interventions were undertaken by healthcare professionals including pharmacists, nurses or physicians. There was also evidence of potential bias in some studies, with only 18 studies reporting adequate concealment of allocation and only 12 studies reporting appropriate protection from contamination, both of which may have influenced the overall effect estimate and the overall pooled estimate. Professional interventionsProfessional interventions probably make little or no difference to the number of hospital admissions (risk ratio (RR) 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79 to 1.96; 2 studies, 3889 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Professional interventions make little or no difference to the number of participants admitted to hospital (adjusted RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.06; 1 study, 3661 participants; high-certainty evidence). Professional interventions may make little or no difference to the number of emergency department visits (adjusted RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.02; 2 studies, 1067 participants; low-certainty evidence). Professional interventions probably make little or no difference to mortality in the study population (adjusted RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.17; 1 study, 3538 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Organisational interventionsOverall, it is uncertain whether organisational interventions reduce the number of hospital admissions (adjusted RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.03; 11 studies, 6203 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Overall, organisational interventions may make little difference to the total number of people admitted to hospital in favour of the intervention group compared with the control group (adjusted RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99; 13 studies, 152,237 participants; low-certainty evidence. Overall, it is uncertain whether organisational interventions reduce the number of emergency department visits in favour of the intervention group compared with the control group (adjusted RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.15; 5 studies, 1819 participants; very low-certainty evidence. Overall, it is uncertain whether organisational interventions reduce mortality in favour of the intervention group (adjusted RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03; 12 studies, 154,962 participants; very low-certainty evidence. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on moderate- and low-certainty evidence, interventions in primary care for reducing preventable medication errors probably make little or no difference to the number of people admitted to hospital or the number of hospitalisations, emergency department visits, or mortality. The variation in heterogeneity in the pooled estimates means that our results should be treated cautiously as the interventions may not have worked consistently across all studies due to differences in how the interventions were provided, background practice, and culture or delivery of the interventions. Larger studies addressing both professional and organisational interventions are needed before evidence-based recommendations can be made. We did not identify any structural interventions and only four studies used professional interventions, and so more work needs to be done with these types of interventions. There is a need for high-quality studies describing the interventions in more detail and testing patient-related outcomes.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of antibiotic consumption on antibiotic resistance.

BACKGROUND: Greater use of antibiotics during the past 50 years has exerted selective pressure on susceptible bacteria and may have favoured the survival of resistant strains. Existing information on antibiotic resistance patterns from pathogens circulating among community-based patients is substantially less than from hospitalized patients on whom guidelines are often based. We therefore chose to assess the relationship between the antibiotic resistance pattern of bacteria circulating in the community and the consumption of antibiotics in the community. METHODS: Both gray literature and published scientific literature in English and other European languages was examined. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyse whether studies found a positive relationship between antibiotic consumption and resistance. A subsequent meta-analysis and meta-regression was conducted for studies for which a common effect size measure (odds ratio) could be calculated. RESULTS: Electronic searches identified 974 studies but only 243 studies were considered eligible for inclusion by the two independent reviewers who extracted the data. A binomial test revealed a positive relationship between antibiotic consumption and resistance (p < .001) but multiple regression modelling did not produce any significant predictors of study outcome. The meta-analysis generated a significant pooled odds ratio of 2.3 (95% confidence interval 2.2 to 2.5) with a meta-regression producing several significant predictors (F(10,77) = 5.82, p < .01). Countries in southern Europe produced a stronger link between consumption and resistance than other regions. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large set of studies we found that antibiotic consumption is associated with the development of antibiotic resistance. A subsequent meta-analysis, with a subsample of the studies, generated several significant predictors. Countries in southern Europe produced a stronger link between consumption and resistance than other regions so efforts at reducing antibiotic consumption may need to be strengthened in this area. Increased consumption of antibiotics may not only produce greater resistance at the individual patient level but may also produce greater resistance at the community, country, and regional levels, which can harm individual patients.

Tools for measuring patient safety in primary care settings using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patient contacts occur in general practice but general practice patient safety has been poorly described and under-researched to date compared to hospital settings. Our objective was to produce a set of patient safety tools and indicators that can be used in general practices in any healthcare setting and develop a 'toolkit' of feasible patient safety measures for general practices in England. METHODS: A RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method exercise was conducted with a panel of international experts in general practice patient safety. Statements were developed from an extensive systematic literature review of patient safety in general practice. We used standard RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method rating methods to identify necessary items for assessing patient safety in general practice, framed in terms of the Structure-Process-Outcome taxonomy. Items were included in the toolkit if they received an overall panel median score of ≥ 7 with agreement (no more than two panel members rating the statement outside a 3-point distribution around the median). RESULTS: Of 205 identified statements, the panel rated 101 as necessary for assessing the safety of general practices. Of these 101 statements, 73 covered structures or organisational issues, 22 addressed processes and 6 focused on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and tested tools that can lead to interventions to improve safety outcomes in general practice. This paper reports the first attempt to systematically develop a patient safety toolkit for general practice, which has the potential to improve safety, cost effectiveness and patient experience, in any healthcare system.

The everydayness of falling: consequences and management for adults with cerebral palsy across the life course.

PURPOSE: To explore the cause, influences and consequences of falling for adults with cerebral palsy (CP) across their life course, and how this is managed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used interview data from a multimethod UK study exploring the effects of ageing with CP and healthcare across the life course. Twenty-six participants were recruited and interviewed using various digital platforms to maximise inclusive participation in the UK. Follow-up email semi-structured interviews were conducted to further explore experiences of falls. Transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Falling and fear of falling (FoF) is problematic for over half of the participants in the sample. They perceived falls and FoF as limiting their participation, autonomy and independence in employment, social and cultural activities. Participants used their own management strategies, due to limited specialist interventions or practitioner knowledge to manage or prevent falls. Practices, such as the use of a wheelchair or avoiding activities prompted changes to relationships and identity. CONCLUSIONS: Falling for adults with CP happens earlier in life compared to the general population. Adults with CP may benefit from specialist falls prevention services to help maintain muscle strength and balance. Research is needed to evaluate effective interventions for people with CP.

Falling negatively impacts on the lives and identities of people with cerebral palsy, including younger adults.In other areas such as services for older people, or those who have experienced stroke, rehabilitation services have helped people reduce falls rates through maintaining strength and balance.Falls prevention rehabilitation services are needed for people with cerebral palsy and should include relevant mobility devices and assistive technologies while maintaining social participation and quality of life.

White matter microstructural integrity and executive function in Parkinson's disease.

Recent studies suggest that white matter abnormalities contribute to both motor and non-motor symptoms of Parkinson's disease. The present study was designed to investigate the degree to which diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging (DTI) indices are related to executive function in Parkinson's patients. We used tract-based spatial statistics to compare DTI data from 15 patients to 15 healthy, age- and education-matched controls. We then extracted mean values of fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) within an a priori frontal mask. Executive function composite Z scores were regressed against these DTI indices, age, and total intracranial volume. In Parkinson's patients, FA was related to executive composite scores, and both indices were related to Stroop interference scores. We conclude that white matter microstructural abnormalities contribute to cognitive deficits in Parkinson's disease. Further work is needed to determine whether these white matter changes reflect the pathological process or a clinically important comorbidity.

Sodium bis-(ethyl-enedi-amine)-copper(II) tetra-cyanido-cuprate(I).

The title compound, Na[Cu(en)2][Cu(CN)4], where en represents ethyl-enedi-amine, NH2CH2CH2NH2, crystallizes as a salt with two distinct cations, Na(+) and [Cu(II)en2](2+), and discrete [Cu(I)(CN)4](3-) anions. The anion geometry is tetra-hedral, with angles at the copper atom ranging from 105.0 (1) to 115.4 (1)°. The Cu-C distances are in the range 1.976 (3) to 1.993 (3) Å. The divalent copper atom is coordinated by four N atoms of the two bidentate en ligands in a slightly distorted square-planar geometry. In the crystal, each sodium ion inter-acts with cyanide N atoms of four different anions, with Na-N distances lying in the narrow range of 2.344 (3) to 2.367 (3) Å, and an approximately tetra-hedral arrangement around the sodium ions. The inter-acting sodium ions and [Cu(I)(CN)4](3-) anions form a three-dimensional network with channels which contain the [Cu(en)2](2+) cations. One of the chelate rings in the cation shows partial disorder between two different conformations and the C atoms were refined with occupancies in the ratio 0.817 (15):0.183 (15).

Retrospective review of medication-related incidents at a major teaching hospital and the potential mitigation of these incidents with electronic prescribing and medicines administration.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the frequency of the different types of medication-related incidents that caused patient harm, or adverse consequences, in a major teaching hospital and investigate whether the likelihood of these incidents occurring would have been reduced by electronic prescribing and medicines administration (EPMA). METHODS: A retrospective review of harmful incidents (n=387) was completed for medication-related reports at the hospital between 1 September 2020 and 31 August 2021. Frequencies of different types of incidents were collated. The potential for EPMA to have prevented these incidents was assessed by reviewing DATIX reports and additional information, including results of any investigations. RESULTS: The largest proportion of harmful medication incidents were administration related (n=215, 55.6%), followed by incidents classified as 'other' and 'prescribing'. Most incidents were classified as low harm (n=321, 83.0%). EPMA could have reduced the likelihood of all incidents which caused harm by 18.6% (n=72) without configuration, and a further 7.5% (n=29) with configuration where configuration refers to adapting the software's functionality without supplier input or development. For 18.4% of the low-harm incidents (n=59) and 20.3% (n=13) of the moderate-harm incidents, EPMA could reduce the likelihood of the incident occurring without configuration. Medication errors most likely to be reduced by EPMA were due to illegibility, multiple drug charts or missing drug charts. CONCLUSION: This study found that administration incidents were the most common type of medication-related incidents. Most of the incidents (n=243, 62.8%) could not be mitigated by EPMA in any circumstance, even with connectivity between technologies. EPMA has the potential to prevent certain types of harmful medication-related incidents, and further improvements could be achieved with configuration and development.

The impact of ageing on adults with cerebral palsy: the results of a national online survey.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral palsy (CP) is one of the most common neurological disorders in children and results in lifelong physical impairments. Adults with CP have approximately the same life expectancy as their non-disabled peers, so helping them to stay healthy throughout the life course will have long-term cost benefits via reductions in hospital admissions, long-term care, and unemployment rates. AIM: To explore how adults with CP experience ageing. DESIGN & SETTING: National online survey given to adults with CP in the UK. METHOD: The participants were adults with CP. Items for the online survey were taken from existing self-report measures, with additional items developed for the survey. Several domains of functioning were assessed including mobility, dexterity, fatigue, pain, speech, mental health, swallowing and health maintenance/self-care as well as healthcare usage. Data were analysed using χ2 to examine the relationships between the demographic variables and the survey responses. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 395 participants, of whom 74.2% were female and approximately 59.3% aged <45 years. Responders reported having problems with mobility, pain, and fatigue with older participants reporting higher levels of pain and more mobility problems, although the correlations were fairly small. Healthcare usage was surprisingly low. CONCLUSION: The study found that age was associated with a decline in mobility and a higher level of pain, although the relationships were weak. It is possible that the low healthcare usage among the responders is owing to services not being available to respond to their needs.

Evaluating the UK's first national prescribing assessment for GPs in training using an online survey.

BACKGROUND: GP trainees may not have experienced a systematic and comprehensive education in safe prescribing. Therefore, a self-assessment prescribing review was developed. AIM: To determine whether the assessment was feasible, had face validity, and did not disadvantage particular groups of participants. DESIGN & SETTING: An online survey that evaluates the opinions of GPs in training of a prescribing assessment in the UK. All full-time UK trainees who started their final year of GP training in August 2019 undertook the prescribing assessment along with their trainers, after which they completed an online anonymous feedback questionnaire. METHOD: The questionnaire completed by trainees sought their opinions of the assessment, and collected ethnicity and disability data. The trainer questionnaire was similar but did not include any demographic information. RESULTS: The questionnaire was completed by 1741 trainees and 1576 trainers. There was no evidence that ethnic group and disability were related to aspects of the review. Most of the trainees (76.4%, n = 1330) and trainers (82.0%, n = 1293) agreed or strongly agreed that the prescribing review was helpful for assessing and learning about the trainee's prescribing. However, most participants (63.2%, n = 1092) took >4 hours to review their prescriptions. A majority of trainees (90.2%, n = 1571) reported that completing the assessment had resulted in a change in their prescribing practice. CONCLUSION: The majority of trainers and trainees reported that the prescribing assessment was helpful. The study was not able to assess whether there had been an actual change in practice that resulted in an error reduction.

Route learning impairment in temporal lobe epilepsy.

Memory impairment on neuropsychological tests is relatively common in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) patients. However, memory has been rarely evaluated in more naturalistic settings. This study assessed TLE (n=19) and control (n=32) groups on a real-world route learning (RL) test. Compared to the controls, the TLE group committed significantly more total errors across the three RL test trials. Route learning errors correlated significantly with standardized auditory and visual memory and visual-perceptual test scores in the TLE group. In the TLE subset for whom hippocampal data were available (n=14), RL errors also correlated significantly with left hippocampal volume. This is one of the first studies to demonstrate real-world memory impairment in TLE patients and its association with both mesial temporal lobe integrity and standardized memory test performance. The results support the ecological validity of clinical neuropsychological assessment.

Income dynamics in the United Kingdom and the impact of the Covid-19 recession.

In this paper, we use an employer-based survey of earnings and hours to set out the key patterns in UK earnings dynamics from 1975 to 2020, with a particular focus on the most recent recession. We demonstrate that (log) earnings changes exhibit strongly procyclical skewness and have become increasingly leptokurtic, and thus less well approximated by a log-normal distribution, over the period of study. This holds across genders and sectors. Exploiting the long duration of our panel, we then explore the responsiveness of earnings and hours to aggregate and firm-level shocks, finding ample heterogeneity in the exposure of different types of workers to aggregate shocks. Exposure is falling in age, firm size, skill level, and permanent earnings, and is lower for unionized and public sector workers. The qualitative patterns of earnings changes across workers observed in the Covid-19 recession of 2020 are broadly as predicted using the previously estimated exposures and size of the shock. Firm-specific shocks are important for wages given the variation in within-firm productivity and the patterns of heterogeneity are markedly different than for aggregate shocks.

Early COVID-19 respiratory risk stratification using machine learning.

Background: COVID-19 has strained healthcare systems globally. In this and future pandemics, providers with limited critical care experience must distinguish between moderately ill patients and those who will require aggressive care, particularly endotracheal intubation. We sought to develop a machine learning-informed Early COVID-19 Respiratory Risk Stratification (ECoRRS) score to assist in triage, by providing a prediction of intubation within the next 48 hours based on objective clinical parameters. Methods: Electronic health record data from 3447 COVID-19 hospitalizations, 20.7% including intubation, were extracted. 80% of these records were used as the derivation cohort. The validation cohort consisted of 20% of the total 3447 records. Multiple randomizations of the training and testing split were used to calculate confidence intervals. Data were binned into 4-hour blocks and labeled as cases of intubation or no intubation within the specified time frame. A LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression model was tuned for sensitivity and sparsity. Results: Six highly predictive parameters were identified, the most significant being fraction of inspired oxygen. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.789 (95% CI 0.785 to 0.812). At 90% sensitivity, the negative predictive value was 0.997. Discussion: The ECoRRS score enables non-specialists to identify patients with COVID-19 at risk of intubation within 48 hours with minimal undertriage and enables health systems to forecast new COVID-19 ventilator needs up to 48 hours in advance. Level of evidence: IV.

The frequency and nature of prescribing problems by GPs-in-training (REVISiT): a retrospective review.

BACKGROUND: Prescribing errors can cause significant morbidity and occur in about 5% of prescriptions in English general practices. AIM: To describe the frequency and nature of prescribing problems in a cohort of GPs-in-training to determine whether they need additional prescribing support. DESIGN & SETTING: A primary care pharmacist undertook a retrospective review of prescriptions issued between 9 October 2014 and 11 March 2015 by 10 GPs in their final year of training from 10 practices in England. METHOD: Pre-existing standards and expert panel discussion were used to classify the appropriateness of prescribing. Data were imported into Stata (version 13) to perform descriptive analysis. An individualised report highlighting prescribing errors, suboptimal prescribing, and areas of good practice identified during the review was shared with the GPs-in-training and their trainers. This report was used to guide discussions during the GP-in-training's feedback session. RESULTS: A total of 1028 prescription items were reviewed from 643 consultations performed by 10 GPs-in-training. There were 92 prescribing errors (8.9%) and 360 episodes of suboptimal prescribing (35.0%). The most common types of error concerned medication dosages (n = 30, 32.6% of errors). CONCLUSION: Personalised review of prescribing revealed an error rate higher than recorded in a previous similar study mainly comprising GPs who had completed postgraduate training, and a substantially higher rate of suboptimal prescribing. A larger intervention study is now required to evaluate the effectiveness of receiving a personalised review of prescribing, and to assess its impact on patient safety.

A survey of engagement and competence levels in interventions and activities in a community mental health workforce in England.

BACKGROUND: National Health Service (NHS) mental health workforce configuration is at the heart of successful delivery, and providers are advised to produce professional development strategies. Recent policy changes in England have sharpened the focus on competency based role development. We determined levels of intervention activities, engagement and competence and their influencing factors in a community-setting mental health workforce. METHODS: Using a modified questionnaire based on the Yorkshire Care Pathways Model we investigated 153 mental health staff working in Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust. A median score of competence was computed across 10 cluster activities. Low engagement and competence levels were examined in a logistic regression model. RESULTS: In 220 activities, Monitoring risk was the highest rate of engagement (97.6%) and Group psychological therapy/Art/Drama therapy was the lowest engagement (3.6%). The median competence level based on all activities was 3.95 (proficient). There were significant differences in the competence level among professional groups; non-qualified support group (3.00 for competent), Counsellor/Psychologist/Therapist (3.38), Occupational therapists (3.76), Nurses (4.01), Medical staff (4.05), Social workers (4.25) and Psychologists (4.62 for proficient/expert). These levels varied with activity clusters; the lowest level was for Counsellor/Psychologist/Therapist in the accommodation activity (1.44 novice/advance beginner) and the highest for Occupational therapists in personal activity (4.94 expert). In a multivariate analysis, low competence was significantly related to non-qualified community support professions, late time of obtaining first qualification, more frequencies of clinical training, and training of cognitive behavioural therapy. The associations were similar in the analysis for 10 activity clusters respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There was a reasonable competence level in the community-setting mental health workforce, but competence varied with professional groups and cluster activities. New staff and other non-qualified support professions need to receive efficient training, and the training content is more important than frequency to increase level of competence.