Estimating carnivoran diets using a combination of carcass observations and scats from GPS clusters.

Scat analysis is one of the most frequently used methods to assess carnivoran diets and Global Positioning System (GPS) cluster methods are increasingly being used to locate feeding sites for large carnivorans. However, both methods have inherent biases that limit their use. GPS methods to locate kill sites are biased towards large carcasses, while scat analysis over-estimates the biomass consumed from smaller prey. We combined carcass observations and scats collected along known movement routes, assessed using GPS data from four African lion (Panthera leo) prides in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, to determine how a combination of these two datasets change diet estimates. As expected, using carcasses alone under-estimated the number of feeding events on small species, primarily impala (Aepyceros melampus) and warthog (Phacochoerus africanus), in our case by more than 50% and thus significantly under-estimated the biomass consumed per pride per day in comparison to when the diet was assessed using carcass observations alone. We show that an approach that supplements carcass observations with scats that enables the identification of potentially missed feeding events increases the estimates of food intake rates for large carnivorans, with possible ramifications for predator-prey interaction studies dealing with biomass intake rate.

Evidence for supercoughers in an analysis of six tuberculosis cohorts from China, Peru, The Gambia and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: It is very difficult to observe tuberculosis (TB) transmission chains and thus, identify superspreaders. We investigate cough duration as a proxy measure of transmission to assess the presence of potential TB superspreaders.DESIGN: We analyzed six studies from China, Peru, The Gambia and Uganda, and determined the distribution of cough duration and compared it with several theoretical distributions. To determine factors associated with cough duration, we used linear regression and boosted regression trees to examine the predictive power of patient, clinical and environmental characteristics.RESULTS: We found within-study heterogeneity in cough duration and strong similarities across studies. Approximately 20% of patients contributed 50% of total cough days, and around 50% of patients contributed 80% of total cough days. The cough duration distribution suggested an initially increasing, and subsequently, decreasing hazard of diagnosis. While some of the exposure variables showed statistically significant associations with cough duration, none of them had a strong effect. Multivariate analyses of different model types did not produce a model that had good predictive power.CONCLUSION: We found consistent evidence for the presence of supercoughers, but no characteristics predictive of such individuals.