Is there an association between commonly employed biomarkers of liver fibrosis and liver stiffness in the general population?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Surrogate biomarkers of liver fibrosis developed in tertiary care are increasingly used in general populations. We evaluated the association between liver stiffness (LS) and five continuous (AST/ALT, APRI, Forns Index, FIB-4, GGT) and two discrete biomarkers (BARD, BAAT) in a general population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 636 (29%) of the 2159 citizens of the Bagnacavallo Study had LS measured by transient elastography. Using linear regression with univariate multiple imputation, we evaluated the association of LS with the above biomarkers in the total sample of 2159 citizens. RESULTS: The mean change of LS between the 5th and 95th internal percentile of any continuous biomarker was ≤1kPa. The mean change of LS between scores 0 and 3 of BARD and scores 0 and ≥3 of BAAT was >1kPa but of doubtful clinical relevance. CONCLUSION: We found a modest association between LS and seven biomarkers of liver fibrosis in a general population.

Cow's Milk Consumption and Health: A Health Professional's Guide.

The most recent scientific evidence supports the consumption of cow's milk and dairy products as part of a balanced diet. However, these days, the public and practicing physicans are exposed to a stream of inconsistent (and often misleading) information regarding the relationship between cow's milk intake and health in the lay press and in the media. The purpose of this article, in this context, is to facilitate doctor-patient communication on this topic, providing physicians with a series of structured answers to frequently asked patient questions. The answers range from milk and milk-derived products' nutritional function across the life span, to their relationship with diseases such as osteoporosis and cancer, to lactose intolerance and milk allergy, and have been prepared by a panel of experts from the Italian medical and nutritional scientific community. When consumed according to appropriate national guidelines, milk and its derivatives contribute essential micro- and macronutrients to the diet, especially in infancy and childhood where bone mass growth is in a critical phase. Furthermore, preliminary evidence suggests potentially protective effects of milk against overweight, obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, while no clear data suggest a significant association between milk intake and cancer. Overall, current scientific literature suggests that an appropriate consumption of milk and its derivatives, according to available nutritional guidelines, may be beneficial across all age groups, with the exception of specific medical conditions such as lactose intolerance or milk protein allergy. Key teaching points: Milk and its derivatives contribute essential micro and macronutrients to the diet, when consumed according to appropriate national guidelines, especially in infancy and childhood where bone mass growth is in a critical phase. Preliminary evidence suggests potentially protective effects of milk against overweight, obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease No clear data are available about the association between milk intake and cancer. Current scientific literature suggests that an appropriate consumption of milk and its derivatives may be beneficial at all ages, with the exception of specific medical conditions such as lactose intolerance or milk protein allergy.

Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. METHODS: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. RESULTS: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. LAY SUMMARY: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

Global epidemiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: What we need in the future.

The estimated prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) worldwide is approximately 25%. However, the real prevalence of NAFLD and the associated disorders is unknown mainly because reliable and applicable diagnostic tests are lacking. This is further complicated by the lack of consensus on the terminology of different entities such as NAFLD or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Although assessing fatty infiltration in the liver is simple by ultrasound, the gold standard for the assessment of fibrosis, the only marker of progression towards more severe liver disease is still liver biopsy. Although other non-invasive tests have been proposed, they must still be validated in large series. Because NAFL/NAFLD/NASH and related metabolic diseases represent an economic burden, finding an inexpensive method to diagnose and stage fatty liver is a priority. A translational approach with the use of cell and/or animal models could help to reach this goal.

Prevalence of and risk factors for fatty liver in the general population of Northern Italy: the Bagnacavallo Study.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of the burden of disease attributable to fatty liver requires studies performed in the general population. METHODS: The Bagnacavallo Study was performed between October 2005 and March 2009. All the citizens of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Italy) aged 30 to 60 years as of January 2005 were eligible. Altered liver enzymes were defined as alanine transaminase > 40 U/l and/or aspartate transaminase > 37 U/l. RESULTS: Four thousand and thirty-three (58%) out of 6920 eligible citizens agreed to participate and 3933 (98%) had complete data. 393 (10%) of the latter had altered liver enzymes and 3540 had not. After exclusion of subjects with HBV or HCV infection, liver ultrasonography was available for 93% of subjects with altered liber enzymes and 52% of those with normal liver enzymes. The prevalence of fatty liver, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcoholic fatty liver disease (AFLD) was 0.74 (95%CI 0.70 to 0.79) vs. 0.35 (0.33 to 0.37), 0.46 (0.41 to 0.51) vs. 0.22 (0.21 to 0.24) and 0.28 (0.24 to 0.33) vs. 0.13 (0.11 to 0.14) in citizens with than in those without altered liver enzymes. Ethanol intake was not associated and all the components of the metabolic syndrome (MS) were associated with fatty liver. All potential risk factors were associated with a lower odds of normal liver vs. NAFLD while they were unable to discriminate AFLD from NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Fatty liver as a whole was highly prevalent in Bagnacavallo in 2005/9 and was more common among citizens with altered liver enzymes.

Viewpoint: "Alcohol Consumption in Late Adolescence is Associated with an Increased Risk of Severe Liver Disease Later in Life".

Drinking alcohol during adolescence predispose to severe liver disease in the adult phase. This is the main message of this prospective study. Each daily gram of alcohol men consumed in their youth was linked with a two percent increase in the risk of severe liver disease. No threshold level emerged for liver damage and this is a warning for all the sociologists and politics. New legiferation and educational campaigns addressed to young people, with particular attention to the access to alcohol, prices and advertising are necessary.

Microbiota, NASH, HCC and the potential role of probiotics.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers. Clearly identifiable risk factors are lacking in up to 30% of HCC patients and most of these cases are attributed to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Beyond the known risk factors for NAFLD, the intestinal microbiota, in particular dysbiosis (defined as any change in the composition of the microbiota commonly found in healthy conditions) is emerging as a new factor promoting the development of chronic liver diseases and HCC. Intestinal microbes produce a large array of bioactive molecules from mainly dietary compounds, establishing an intense microbiota-host transgenomic metabolism with a major impact on physiological and pathological conditions. A better knowledge of these 'new' pathways could help unravel the pathogenesis of HCC in NAFLD to devise new prevention strategies. Currently unsettled issues include the relative role of a 'negative microbiota' (in addition to the other known risk factors for NASH) and the putative prevention of NAFLD through modulation of the gut microbiota.

Clinical patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A multicenter prospective study.

UNLABELLED: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents the hepatic manifestation of metabolic syndrome and may evolve into hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Only scanty clinical information is available on HCC in NAFLD. The aim of this multicenter observational prospective study was to assess the clinical features of patients with NAFLD-related HCC (NAFLD-HCC) and to compare them to those of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC. A total of 756 patients with either NAFLD (145) or HCV-related chronic liver disease (611) were enrolled in secondary care Italian centers. Survival was modeled according to clinical parameters, lead-time bias, and propensity analysis. Compared to HCV, HCC in NAFLD patients had a larger volume, showed more often an infiltrative pattern, and was detected outside specific surveillance. Cirrhosis was present in only about 50% of NAFLD-HCC patients, in contrast to the near totality of HCV-HCC. Regardless of tumor stage, survival was significantly shorter (P = 0.017) in patients with NAFLD-HCC, 25.5 months (95% confidence interval 21.9-29.1), than in those with HCV-HCC, 33.7 months (95% confidence interval 31.9-35.4). To eliminate possible confounders, a propensity score analysis was performed, which showed no more significant difference between the two groups. Additionally, analysis of patients within Milan criteria submitted to curative treatments did not show any difference in survival between NAFLD-HCC and HCV-HCC (respectively, 38.6 versus 41.0 months, P = nonsignificant) CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD-HCC is more often detected at a later tumor stage and could arise also in the absence of cirrhosis, but after patient matching, it has a similar survival rate compared to HCV infection; a future challenge will be to identify patients with NAFLD who require more stringent surveillance in order to offer the most timely and effective treatment.

The epidemiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

The increase in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and the imminent disappearance of chronic viral hepatitis thanks to new and effective therapies is motivating hepatologists to change their clinical approach to chronic liver disease. NAFLD-cirrhosis or NAFLD-Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) are now the second cause of liver transplantation in the USA. This short-review is focused to the epidemiology of NAFLD/Non-alchoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH), including the definition of this disease which should be revised as well discussing the prevalence, risk factors for progression, natural history and mortality. NAFLD is considered to be the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome (MS). It affects 25-30% of the general population and the risk factors are almost identical to those of MS. The natural history involves either the development of cardiovascular diseases or cirrhosis and HCC. HCC can also develop in NASH in the absence of cirrhosis (45% of cases). We conclude that an international consensus conference on the definition, natural history, policies of surveillance and new pharmacological treatments of NAFLD and NASH is urgently needed.

From NAFLD in clinical practice to answers from guidelines.

This review of the literature consists of three sections. First, papers concerning non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) awareness among the general population, general practitioners, and liver and non-liver specialists were retrieved and analyzed to highlight the perception of disease, verify knowledge of current recommendations, and identify the main difficulties experienced in clinical practice. Next, position papers and clinical practice guidelines issued by International and National Hepatological Scientific Societies were identified and critically assessed in order to pinpoint the areas of convergence/difference. Finally, practical suggestions on NAFLD diagnosis and management in daily practice are provided and the open questions highlighted.

Stage of change and motivation to healthier lifestyle in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: Healthy diet and physical activity are the treatment cornerstones of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); their effectiveness is however limited by difficulties in implementing lifestyle changes. We aimed at determining the stage of change and associated psychological factors as a prerequisite to refine strategies to implement behavior changes. METHODS: We studied 138 consecutive NAFLD patients (73% male, age 19-73 years). The diagnosis was confirmed by liver biopsy in 64 cases (steatohepatitis, 47%). All cases completed the validated EMME-3 questionnaire, consisting of two parallel sets of instruments (for diet and physical activity, respectively) and providing stages of change according to transtheoretical model. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with stages making behavioral changes more demanding. RESULTS: The individual profiles were variable; for diet, no cases had precontemplation as prevalent stage of change (highest score in individual profiles); 36% had contemplation. For physical activity, 50% were classified in either precontemplation or contemplation. Minor differences were recorded in relation to associated metabolic complications or steatohepatitis. Logistic regression identified male sex (odds ratio, 4.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-12.08) and age (1.70; 1.20-2.43 per decade) as the independent parameters predicting precontemplation or contemplation for diet. No predictors were identified for physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD cases have scarce readiness to lifestyle changes, particularly with regard to physical activity. Defining stages of change and motivation offers the opportunity to improve clinical care of NAFLD people through individual programs exploiting the powerful potential of behavioral counseling, an issue to be tested in longitudinal studies.

External Validation of Surrogate Indices of Fatty Liver in the General Population: the Bagnacavallo Study.

We externally validated the fatty liver index (FLI), the lipid accumulation product (LAP), the hepatic steatosis index (HSI), and the Zhejiang University index (ZJU) for the diagnosis of fatty liver (FL) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the general population. The validation was performed on 2159 citizens of the town of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Italy). Calibration was evaluated by calculating the calibration slope and intercept and by inspecting calibration plots; discrimination was evaluated using the c-statistic. The average calibration slope was 1 and the average intercept was 0 for all combinations of outcomes and indices. For the diagnosis of FL, the c-statistic was 0.85 for FLI, 0.83 for ZJU, 0.82 for HSI, and 0.80 for LAP; for the diagnosis of NAFLD, the c-statistic was 0.77 for FLI, 0.76 for ZJU, 0.75 for HSI, and 0.74 for LAP. All indices were strongly correlated with each other. In conclusion, FLI, LAP, HSI, and ZJU perform similarly well to diagnose FL and NAFLD in the Bagnacavallo population, even if FLI has a small advantage as discrimination is concerned.

Interaction of alcohol intake and cofactors on the risk of cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the interaction between alcohol intake and cofactors [hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), body mass index] and coffee consumption on the risk of cirrhosis. DESIGN: Seven hundred and forty-nine consecutive patients with chronic liver disease referring to units for liver or alcohol diseases in Italy during a 6-months period. Teetotalers were excluded. The odds ratios (OR) for cirrhosis were evaluated using chronic hepatitis cases as the control group. RESULTS: An alcohol intake of more than 3 units/day resulted associated with the likelihood of cirrhosis both in males (OR 4.3; 95% CI=2.5-7.3) and in females (OR 5.7; 95% CI=2.3-14.5). A multiplicative interaction on the risk of cirrhosis between risky alcohol intake and HBsAg or HCV-Ab/HCV-RNA positivity was observed. A reduction of cirrhosis risk was observed in subjects consuming more than 3 alcohol units/day with increasing coffee intake. The OR for the association with cirrhosis decreased from 2.3 (95% CI=1.2-4.4) in subjects drinking 0-2 cups of coffee/day to 1.4 (95% CI=0.6-3.6) in those drinking more than 2 cups/day. CONCLUSIONS: In subjects with an alcohol intake >3 units/day the coexistence of HBV or HCV multiplies the risk of cirrhosis. Coffee represents a modulator of alcoholic cirrhosis risk.

A simple index of lipid overaccumulation is a good marker of liver steatosis.

BACKGROUND: Liver steatosis is often found in association with common cardiometabolic disorders, conditions that may all occur in a shared context of abdominal obesity and dyslipidemia. An algorithm for identifying liver steatosis is the fatty liver index (FLI). The lipid accumulation product (LAP) is an index formulated in a representative sample of the US population to identify cardiometabolic disorders. Because FLI and LAP share two components, namely waist circumference and fasting triglycerides, we evaluated the ability of LAP to identify liver steatosis in the same study population from the Northern Italian town where FLI was initially developed. METHODS: We studied 588 individuals (59% males) aged 21 to 79 years. Liver steatosis was detected by ultrasonography and coded ordinally as none, intermediate and severe. 44% of the individuals had liver steatosis. Using proportional-odds ordinal logistic regression, we evaluated the ability of log-transformed LAP (lnLAP) to identify liver steatosis. We considered the benefits to our model of including terms for sex, age, suspected liver disease and ethanol intake. We calculated the 3-level probability of liver steatosis according to lnLAP and sex, providing tables and nomograms for risk assessment. RESULTS: An ordinal proportional-odds model consisting of lnLAP and sex offered a reasonably accurate identification of liver steatosis. The odds of more severe vs. less severe steatosis increased for increasing values of lnLAP (odds ratio [OR] = 4.28, 95%CI 3.28 to 5.58 for each log-unit increment) and was more likely among males (OR = 1.88, 95%CI 1.31 to 2.69). CONCLUSION: In a study sample of adults from Northern Italy, the simple calculation of LAP was a reasonably accurate approach to recognizing individuals with ultrasonographic liver steatosis. LAP may help primary care physicians to select subjects for liver ultrasonography and intensified lifestyle counseling, and researchers to select patients for epidemiologic studies. A more thorough assessment of LAP's potential for identifying liver steatosis will require its cross-evaluation in external populations.

Epidemiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is rapidly becoming the most common liver disease worldwide. The prevalence of NAFLD in the general population of Western countries is 20-30%. About 2-3% of the general population is estimated to have non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), which may progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatocarcinoma. As a rule, the prevalence of NAFLD is higher in males and increases with increasing age, and it is influenced by the diagnostic method and the characteristics of the population, especially lifestyle habits. Population-based studies provide better estimates of the prevalence of NAFLD as compared to autoptic and clinical studies, but few such studies have been performed to date. The diagnosis of NAFLD in population studies is usually obtained by ultrasonography, which is known to underestimate the prevalence of fatty liver. The Dallas Heart Study and the Dionysos Study reported that 30% of the adults in the USA and 25% in Italy have NAFLD. In these studies, 79% and 55% of patients with NAFLD had normal aminotransferase levels, showing that liver enzymes are not surrogate markers of NAFLD in the general population. Noninvasive markers such as the fatty liver index obtained from the Dionysos Study may be useful to screen for NAFLD in the general population. The most important risk factors for NAFLD are male gender, age, obesity, insulin resistance and the cardiometabolic alterations that define the metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of NAFLD is 80-90% in obese adults, 30-50% in patients with diabetes and up to 90% in patients with hyperlipidemia. The prevalence of NAFLD among children is 3-10%, rising up to 40-70% among obese children. Moreover, pediatric NAFLD increased from about 3% a decade ago to 5% today, with a male-to-female ratio of 2:1. The incidence and natural history of NAFLD are still not well defined, but it is recognized that the majority of individuals with NAFLD do not develop NASH. The incidence of NAFLD is probably increasing in Western countries, strictly linked to lifestyle habits.

Behavior therapy for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: The need for a multidisciplinary approach.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is systematically associated with insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome, where behavior therapy remains the primary treatment, simultaneously addressing all the clinical and biochemical defects. However, very few studies have tested the effectiveness of intensive behavior therapy in NAFLD, aimed at lifestyle modifications to produce stable weight loss by reduced calorie intake and increased physical activity. Searching the literature for studies testing weight loss and lifestyle modifications for the treatment of NAFLD, only 14 reports were traced where the entry assessment satisfied well-defined criteria. The final effectiveness was based on hard histological outcomes in 5 cases. All but 1 were pilot, uncontrolled studies or limited case series, and in general the details of treatment were scanty. In only 3 cases treatment was carried out along the guidelines of behavior treatment to reduce excess nutrition and increase exercise; in these cases, a remarkable effect on weight loss and an improvement in liver histology were reported. The principles of behavior therapy are presented in detail, to help physicians change their prescriptive attitude into a more empowerment-based approach. A brief section is also included on the practical aspects and public policies to be implemented at societal level to obtain the maximum effects in lifestyle changes. There is a need for multidisciplinary teams including dietitians, psychologists, and physical activity supervisors caring for patients with NAFLD. Alternatively, general practitioners and physicians working in gastrointestinal units should limit their intervention to engage patients with NAFLD before referral to specialized teams set up for the treatment of diabetes and obesity.

Epidemiology and natural history of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

The authors summarize and update the most recent knowledge in the field of prevalence, natural history and incidence of Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and Non Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH). These novel diseases, firstly recognized at the beginning of the second millennium, arose suddenly to the attention of the clinicians, because they are the hepatic expression of the "so-called" metabolic syndrome. Due to the epidemic burden of obesity, diabetes, and metabolic diseases, NAFLD and NASH will become soon probably the most common hepatic disease worldwide, and they surely will keep busy our future young hepatologists.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden - Switzerland 2018-2030.

As a result of epidemic levels of obesity and diabetes mellitus, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will contribute to increases in the liver-related disease burden in Switzerland. A Markov model was built to quantify fibrosis progression among the NAFLD and NASH populations, and predict disease burden up to 2030. Long-term trending of NAFLD prevalence was based on changes in the prevalence of adult obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections. The prevalence of NAFLD increased up to 2030 in tandem with projected increases in adult obesity. By 2030, there were an estimated 2,234,000 (1,918,000–2,553,000) NAFLD cases, or 24.3% (20.9–27.8%) of the total Swiss population (all ages). Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase by approximately 40% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths to increase from 580 deaths in 2018 to 820 deaths in 2030. Continued growth in obesity, in combination with an aging population, will result in increasing number of cases of advanced liver disease and mortality related to NAFLD and NASH. Slowing the growth in obesity and metabolic syndrome, along with future potential therapies, are required to reduce liver disease burden.  .

Natural course of chronic HCV and HBV infection and role of alcohol in the general population: the Dionysos Study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based studies of the natural course of chronic viral liver disease that consider comorbidity factors are lacking. Using data from the Dionysos Study, we quantified the burden of chronic viral liver disease and the role of alcohol intake to morbidity and mortality in a representative sample of subjects from the general population of two communities of Northern Italy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We followed up 139 subjects with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and 61 with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection for a median (IQR) time of 8.4 (1.0) and 8.3 (0.9) yr, respectively. Ethanol intake was evaluated using a food-frequency questionnaire, fatty liver (FL) was diagnosed by ultrasonography, and liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocarcinoma (HCC) were diagnosed by liver biopsy. Exact multivariable Poisson regression was performed to identify predictors of death. The incidence and remission rates of FL were 9.0 and 29.7 in the HCV cohort and 4.0 and 30.4 per 1,000 person-years (PY) in the HBV cohort. Progression to LC and HCC was more common in the HCV than in the HBV cohort (4.5 vs 2.0 and 2.7 vs 2.0 per 1,000 PY, respectively). Ethanol intake was an independent predictor of LC in the HCV cohort [rate ratio (RR) = 4.15 (95% CI 1.02-41.2) for every increase of 30 g/day of ethanol intake at baseline] and of death rate in both cohorts [RR = 8.53 (95% CI 1.40-24.61) and 3.56 (1.34 to 26.50) for every increase of 30 g/day of ethanol intake at baseline]. CONCLUSIONS: The morbidity and mortality rate of HBV and HCV infection in the general population is lower than that reported in secondary-care populations, blood donors, or clinical series. Ethanol intake is an independent predictor of LC in subjects with chronic HCV infection and an independent predictor of death in subjects with either HCV or HBV infection.