Is evolutionary history repeatedly rewritten in light of new fossil discoveries?

Mass media and popular science journals commonly report that new fossil discoveries have 'rewritten evolutionary history'. Is this merely journalistic hyperbole or is our sampling of systematic diversity so limited that attempts to derive evolutionary history from these datasets are premature? We use two exemplars-catarrhine primates (Old World monkeys and apes) and non-avian dinosaurs-to investigate how the maturity of datasets can be assessed. Both groups have been intensively studied over the past 200 years and so should represent pinnacles in our knowledge of vertebrate systematic diversity. We test the maturity of these datasets by assessing the completeness of their fossil records, their susceptibility to changes in macroevolutionary hypotheses and the balance of their phylogenies through study time. Catarrhines have shown prolonged stability, with discoveries of new species being evenly distributed across the phylogeny, and thus have had little impact on our understanding of their fossil record, diversification and evolution. The reverse is true for dinosaurs, where the addition of new species has been non-random and, consequentially, their fossil record, tree shape and our understanding of their diversification is rapidly changing. The conclusions derived from these analyses are relevant more generally: the maturity of systematic datasets can and should be assessed before they are exploited to derive grand macroevolutionary hypotheses.

Muscle Loss is Associated with Risk of Orthostatic Hypotension in Older Men and Women.

BACKGROUND: Muscle provides a reservoir for water to maintain fluid volume and blood pressure, so older adults may be at risk for orthostatic hypotension due to muscle loss with age. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between muscle loss with age and postural blood pressure. DESIGN: Longitudinal comparison of overnight changes in hydration, postural blood pressure, and strength. SETTING: Community field study. PARTICIPANTS: Sixty-nine men and women (76.0 ± 0.8 years) with low (Low) or normal (Normal) muscle based on the Lean Mass Index. MEASUREMENTS: Body composition was measured with bioelectrical impedance analysis. Postural blood pressure was measured sequentially (lying, sitting, standing). Strength was measured with a handgrip dynamometer, Arm Curl test, and Chair Stand test. RESULTS: On Day 1, Low had less hydration and a significant drop in postural systolic blood pressure compared to Normal (lying to standing: -11.06 ± 2.36 vs. +1.14 ± 2.20 mmHg, p < 0.001). Overnight, both groups lost significant total body water, while fluid volume was unchanged. On Day 2, both groups experienced significant drops in postural systolic blood pressure, although the drop in Low was more profound and significantly greater than Normal (lying to standing: -16.85 ± 2.50 vs. -3.89 ± 2.52 mmHg, p = 0.001). On both days, Normal compensated for postural changes with increases in postural diastolic blood pressure not observed in Low. Only Low experienced significant overnight decreases in all strength measures. CONCLUSIONS: In older men and women, muscle loss with age is accompanied by loss of hydration and less stable early morning postural systolic blood pressure that increase risk for orthostatic hypotension and can also increase risk for falls.

Phylogenetically structured variance in felid bite force: the role of phylogeny in the evolution of biting performance.

A key question in evolution is the degree to which morphofunctional complexes are constrained by phylogeny. We investigated the role of phylogeny in the evolution of biting performance, quantified as bite forces, using phylogenetic eigenvector regression. Results indicate that there are strong phylogenetic signals in both absolute and size-adjusted bite forces, although it is weaker in the latter. This indicates that elimination of size influences reduces the level of phylogenetic inertia and that the majority of the phylogenetic constraint is a result of size. Tracing the evolution of bite force through phylogeny by character optimization also supports this notion, in that relative bite force is randomly distributed across phylogeny whereas absolute bite force diverges according to clade. The nonphylogenetically structured variance in bite force could not be sufficiently explained by species-unique morphology or by ecology. This study demonstrates the difficulties in identifying causes of nonphylogenetically structured variance in morphofunctional character complexes.

Ecosystem remodelling among vertebrates at the Permian-Triassic boundary in Russia.

The mass extinction at the Permian-Triassic boundary, 251 million years (Myr) ago, is accepted as the most profound loss of life on record. Global data compilations indicate a loss of 50% of families or more, both in the sea and on land, and these figures scale to a loss of 80-96% of species, based on rarefaction analyses. This level of loss is confirmed by local and regional-scale studies of marine sections, but the terrestrial record has been harder to analyse in such close detail. Here we document the nature of the event in Russia in a comprehensive survey of 675 specimens of amphibians and reptiles from 289 localities spanning 13 successive geological time zones in the South Urals basin. These changes in diversity and turnover cannot be explained simply by sampling effects. There was a profound loss of genera and families, and simplification of ecosystems, with the loss of small fish-eaters and insect-eaters, medium and large herbivores and large carnivores. Faunal dynamics also changed, from high rates of turnover through the Late Permian period to greater stability at low diversity through the Early Triassic period. Even after 15 Myr of ecosystem rebuilding, some guilds were apparently still absent-small fish-eaters, small insect-eaters, large herbivores and top carnivores.

Diversification and extinction in the history of life.

Analysis of the fossil record of microbes, algae, fungi, protists, plants, and animals shows that the diversity of both marine and continental life increased exponentially since the end of the Precambrian. This diversification was interrupted by mass extinctions, the largest of which occurred in the Early Cambrian, Late Ordovician, Late Devonian, Late Permian, Early Triassic, Late Triassic, and end-Cretaceous. Most of these extinctions were experienced by both marine and continental organisms. As for the periodicity of mass extinctions, no support was found: Seven mass extinction peaks in the last 250 million years are spaced 20 to 60 million years apart.

Body size evolution in Mesozoic birds.

The tendency for the mean body size of taxa within a clade to increase through evolution (Cope's Rule) has been demonstrated in a number of terrestrial vertebrate groups. However, because avian body size is strongly constrained by flight, any increase in size during the evolution of this lineage should be limited - there is a maximum size that can be attained by a bird for it to be able to get off the ground. Contrary to previous interpretations of early avian evolution, we demonstrate an overall increase in body size across Jurassic and Cretaceous flying birds: taxon body size increases from the earliest Jurassic through to the end of the Cretaceous, across a time span of 70 Myr. Although evidence is limited that this change is directional, it is certainly nonrandom. Relative size increase occurred presumably as the result of an increase in variance as the avian clade diversified after the origin of flight: a progression towards larger body size is seen clearly within the clades Pygostylia and Ornithothoraces. In contrast, a decrease in body size characterizes the most crownward lineage Ornithuromorpha, the clade that includes all extant taxa, and potentially may explain the survival of these birds across the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. As in all other dinosaurs, counter selection for small size is seen in some clades, whereas body size is increasing overall.

Accuracy of Body Mass Index Versus Lean Mass Index for Prediction of Sarcopenia in Older Women.

We compared accuracy of body mass index (BMI) versus lean mass index (LMI) to predict sarcopenia in 58 community-dwelling women (74.1±0.9 years). Lean mass was measured with multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, and strength was measured with Arm Curl test, Chair Stand test, and handgrip dynamometry. Sarcopenia was defined as low LMI. When categorized by BMI, normal women had less absolute lean mass (37.6±1.0 vs. 42.6±0.9 kg; P<0.001) and less relative lean mass (14.1±0.2 vs. 16.1±0.2 kg/m2; P<0.001) compared to overweight/obese women, but no differences in strength. When categorized by LMI, normal women had more absolute lean mass (44.0±0.7 vs. 35.7±0.7 kg; P<0.001), more relative lean mass (16.2±0.2 vs. 13.8±0.2 kg/m2; P<0.001), and greater upper body strength (16.7±0.9 vs. 14.2±0.6 arm curls; P<0.05) compared to women with low LMI. BMI failed to accurately predict low values of lean mass and strength. For clinical assessment, calculation of LMI rather than BMI is appropriate.

Interaction of cooling rate, warming rate, and extent of permeation of cryoprotectant in determining survival of isolated rat islets of Langerhans during cryopreservation.

Cryopreservation of islets of Langerhans offers a number of important benefits for attempts to cure diabetes by transplantation. In the published literature, a variety of cooling rates, ranging from 0.25 to 75 degrees C/min, in conjunction with warming rates of 4-200 degrees C/min have been proposed to give optimal preservation of islets. In view of the general importance of rates of temperature change in determining survival and because of the possibility of modulating tissue immunogenicity by freezing and thawing, we have studied the interaction of cooling rate and warming rate for isolated rat islets that had been either fully or partially equilibrated with 2 M dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). Batches of islets were stored at -196 degrees C after cooling at 0.3, 3.0, 10, 30, 60, 150, or greater than 1000 degrees C/min and then warmed at either 10 or 50 degrees C/min. Survival was assessed by measuring the secretion of insulin during static incubation in alternating nonstimulatory and stimulatory media. Cooling rates extending over three orders of magnitude proved not to be a major determinant of survival when the islets were equilibrated with 2 M DMSO: greater than 50% survival was achieved at all cooling rates studied when the warming rate was at 50 degrees C/min. Peak survival (83%) was attained at a cooling rate of 0.3 degrees C/min, but only slightly lower recoveries were obtained at 60 and greater than 1000 degrees C/min. However, in islets only partially equilibrated with cryoprotectants, functional recovery was highly dependent on the cooling and warming rates, with peak survivals after slow cooling and rapid warming. Full permeation of the tissue with cryoprotectant offered maximal recovery of function.

Characterization of pulmonary function in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.

Decline in pulmonary function in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) contributes to significant morbidity and reduced longevity. Spirometry is a widely used and fairly easily performed technique to assess lung function, and in particular lung volume; however, the acceptability criteria from the American Thoracic Society (ATS) may be overly restrictive and inappropriate for patients with neuromuscular disease. We examined prospective spirometry data (Forced Vital Capacity [FVC] and peak expiratory flow [PEF]) from 60 DMD patients enrolled in a natural history cohort study (median age 10.3 years, range 5-24 years). Expiratory flow-volume curves were examined by a pulmonologist and the data were evaluated for acceptability using ATS criteria modified based on the capabilities of patients with neuromuscular disease. Data were then analyzed for change with age, ambulation status, and glucocorticoid use. At least one acceptable study was obtained in 44 subjects (73%), and 81 of the 131 studies (62%) were acceptable. The FVC and PEF showed similar relative changes in absolute values with increasing age, i.e., an increase through 10 years, relative stabilization from 10-18 years, and then a decrease at an older age. The percent predicted, FVC and PEF showed a near linear decline of approximately 5% points/year from ages 5 to 24. Surprisingly, no difference was observed in FVC or PEF by ambulation or steroid treatment. Acceptable spirometry can be performed on DMD patients over a broad range of ages. Using modified ATS criteria, curated spirometry data, excluding technically unacceptable data, may provide a more reliable means of determining change in lung function over time.

Finding the tree of life: matching phylogenetic trees to the fossil record through the 20th century.

Phylogenies, or evolutionary trees, are fundamental to biology. Systematists have laboured since the time of Darwin to discover the tree of life. Recent developments in systematics, such as cladistics and molecular sequencing, have led practitioners to believe that their phylogenies are more testable now than equivalent efforts from the 1960s or earlier. Whole trees, and nodes within trees, may be assessed for their robustness. However, these quantitative approaches cannot be used to demonstrate that one tree is more likely to be correct than another. Congruence assessments may help. Comparison of a sample of 1000 published trees with an essentially independent standard (dates of origin of groups in geological time) shows that the order of branching has improved slightly, but the disparity between estimated times of origination from phylogeny and stratigraphy has, if anything, become worse. Controlled comparisons of phylogenies of four major groups (Agnatha, Sarcopterygii, Sauria and Mammalia) do not show uniform improvement, or decline, of fit to stratigraphy through the twentieth century. Nor do morphological or molecular trees differ uniformly in their performance.

Cope's Rule in the Pterosauria, and differing perceptions of Cope's Rule at different taxonomic levels.

The remarkable extinct flying reptiles, the pterosaurs, show increasing body size over 100 million years of the Late Jurassic and Cretaceous, and this seems to be a rare example of a driven trend to large size (Cope's Rule). The size increases continue throughout the long time span, and small forms disappear as larger pterosaurs evolve. Mean wingspan increases through time. Examining for Cope's Rule at a variety of taxonomic levels reveals varying trends within the Pterosauria as a whole, as pterodactyloid pterosaurs increase in size at all levels of examination, but rhamphorhynchoid pterosaurs show both size increase and size decrease in different analyses. These results suggest that analyses testing for Cope's Rule at a single taxonomic level may give misleading results.

The history of the biosphere: Equilibrium and non-equilibrium models of global diversity.

Species diversity on the earth has increased through time. The fossil record suggests that the increase may have occurred in several stages, with perturbations caused by mass extinctions and widespread radiations. Various models for global taxonomic diversification have been proposed: equilibrium models where there is a fixed number of species that the earth can support at any time; and non-equilibrium models of two hinds, in which either an equilibrium level exists, but is never reached, or in which there is no equilibrium number at all. At present, all three models can explain the data, although the equilibrium models have been heavily criticized. Detailed reassessments of the fossil record may indicate which models are more probably correct.

Mass extinctions among tetrapods and the quality of the fossil record.

The fossil record of tetrapods is very patchy because of the problems of preservation, in terrestrial sediments in particular, and because vertebrates are rarely very abundant. However, the fossil record of tetrapods has the advantages that it is easier to establish a phylogenetic taxonomy than for many invertebrate groups, and there is the potential for more detailed ecological analyses. The relative incompleteness of a fossil record may be assessed readily, and this can be used to test whether drops in overall diversity are related to mass extinctions or to gaps in our knowledge. Absolute incompleteness cannot be assessed directly, but a historical approach may offer clues to future improvements in our knowledge. One of the key problems facing palaeobiologists is paraphyly, the fact that many higher taxa in common use do not contain all of the descendants of the common ancestor. This may be overcome by cladistic analysis and the identification of monophyletic groups. The diversity of tetrapods increased from the Devonian to the Permian, remained roughly constant during the Mesozoic, and then began to increase in the late Cretaceous, and continued to do so during the Tertiary. The rapid radiation of 'modern' tetrapod groups--frogs, salamanders, lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodilians, birds and mammals--was hardly affected by the celebrated end-Cretaceous extinction event. Major mass extinctions among tetrapods took place in the early Permian, late Permian, early Triassic, late Triassic, late Cretaceous, early Oligocene and late Miocene. Many of these events appear to coincide with the major mass extinctions among marine invertebrates, but the tetrapod record is largely equivocal with regard to the theory of periodicity of mass extinctions.

The relationships of the major group of mammals: New approaches.

Systematically, mammals must be the most intensively studied group of organisms. Yet the relationships between the major orders - bats, whales, primates, rodents, insectivores, elephants, and so on - are still controversial. New systematic approaches, including molecular sequencing studies and cladisitic analyses of morphological data, have given rise to a number of new phylogenetic hypotheses, but only a few sister-group relationships seem to have general support. These hypotheses are depicted in the accompanying centre-page diagram.

Models for the diversification of life.

The diversification of life through geological time a rise from presumably one species to many millions today. The diversification of marine families in the past 600 million years (Myr) appears to have followed two or three logistic curves, with equilibrium levels that lasted for up to 200 Myr. In contrast, continental organisms clearly show an exponential pattern of diversification, and although it is not clear whether the empirical diversification patterns are real or are artefacts of a poor fossil record, the latter explanation seems unlikely. Perhaps marine and continental organisms diversified in different ways, or perhaps the appearance of equilibrium patterns for marine organisms is an artefact of taxonomic structures.

Palaeontological data and identifying mass extinctions.

It is often assumed that mass extinctions may be read directly from the fossil record. However, recent work on the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary has shown the difficulty of doing this. For example, it is hard to tell whether the stratigraphic ranges of taxa are complete or not, and what the shape of an extinction really is. Range completeness may be assessed by (1) a statistical approach to the relative completeness of ranges of taxa, and (2) tests based on collecting effort near the ends of ranges. Tests carried out recently suggest that the record is good in parts and getting better. Hence, palaeontologists ought to be able to document the nature of extinction events ever more precisely.