Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

1.36 million years of Mediterranean forest refugium dynamics in response to glacial-interglacial cycle strength.

The sediment record from Lake Ohrid (Southwestern Balkans) represents the longest continuous lake archive in Europe, extending back to 1.36 Ma. We reconstruct the vegetation history based on pollen analysis of the DEEP core to reveal changes in vegetation cover and forest diversity during glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycles and early basin development. The earliest lake phase saw a significantly different composition rich in relict tree taxa and few herbs. Subsequent establishment of a permanent steppic herb association around 1.2 Ma implies a threshold response to changes in moisture availability and temperature and gradual adjustment of the basin morphology. A change in the character of G-IG cycles during the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition is reflected in the record by reorganization of the vegetation from obliquity- to eccentricity-paced cycles. Based on a quantitative analysis of tree taxa richness, the first large-scale decline in tree diversity occurred around 0.94 Ma. Subsequent variations in tree richness were largely driven by the amplitude and duration of G-IG cycles. Significant tree richness declines occurred in periods with abundant dry herb associations, pointing to aridity affecting tree population survival. Assessment of long-term legacy effects between global climate and regional vegetation change reveals a significant influence of cool interglacial conditions on subsequent glacial vegetation composition and diversity. This effect is contrary to observations at high latitudes, where glacial intensity is known to control subsequent interglacial vegetation, and the evidence demonstrates that the Lake Ohrid catchment functioned as a refugium for both thermophilous and temperate tree species.