Algorithmic Probability Method Versus Kolmogorov Complexity with No-Threshold Encoding Scheme for Short Time Series: An Analysis of Day-To-Day Hourly Solar Radiation Time Series over Tropical Western Indian Ocean.

The complexity of solar radiation fluctuations received on the ground is nowadays of great interest for solar resource in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Over tropical maritime area, there are small inhabited islands for which the prediction of the solar resource at the daily and infra-daily time scales are important to optimize their solar energy systems. Recently, studies show that the theory of the information is a promising way to measure the solar radiation intermittency. Kolmogorov complexity (KC) is a useful tool to address the question of predictability. Nevertheless, this method is inaccurate for small time series size. To overcome this drawback, a new encoding scheme is suggested for converting hourly solar radiation time series values into a binary string for calculation of Kolmogorov complexity (KC-ES). To assess this new approach, we tested this method using the 2004-2006 satellite hourly solar data for the western part of the Indian Ocean. The results were compared with the algorithmic probability (AP) method which is used as the benchmark method to compute the complexity for short string. These two methods are a new approach to compute the complexity of short solar radiation time series. We show that KC-ES and AP methods give comparable results which are in agreement with the physical variability of solar radiation. During the 2004-2006 period, an important interannual SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly over the south of Mozambique Channel encounters in 2005, a strong MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation) took place in May 2005 over the equatorial Indian Ocean, and nine tropical cyclones crossed the western part of the Indian Ocean in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 austral summer. We have computed KC-ES of the solar radiation time series for these three events. The results show that the Kolmogorov complexity with suggested encoding scheme (KC-ES) gives competitive measure of complexity in regard to the AP method also known as Solomonoff probability.

Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France).

Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011-2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011-2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015-2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Réunion is affected.

Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France).

Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural variability of solar irradiation is being complicated by atmospheric conditions (in particular cloudiness) and orography, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 at 11 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use a set of novel quantitative tools: Kolmogorov complexity (KC) with its derivative associated measures and Hamming distance (HAM) and their combination to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. We find that all half-day (from sunrise to sunset) solar irradiation series exhibit high complexity. However, all of them can be classified into three groups strongly influenced by trade winds that circulate in a "flow around" regime: the windward side (trade winds slow down), the leeward side (diurnal thermally-induced circulations dominate) and the coast parallel to trade winds (winds are accelerated due to Venturi effect). We introduce Kolmogorov time (KT) that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability.

Intermittency study of global solar radiation under a tropical climate: case study on Reunion Island.

The arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analyses are applied to study the intermittency and multifractality of Global Horizonal Irradiation (GHI) based on one available high sampling rate of 1-year GHI records located at Saint-Denis (Moufia) over Reunion Island. The scaling exponents [Formula: see text] is estimated through the arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analyses, and three parameters: Hurst exponent (H), the fractal co-dimension (C1), and Lévy parameter ([Formula: see text]) are taken to study the multifractal process of the GHI in the sub-daily, daily fluctuations and also in seasonal variations. A power law behaviour with a spectral exponent ß = 1.68 close to the Kolmogorov spectrum is detected through Fourier spectrum analysis, which indicates that the sub-daily fluctuations of GHI are nonstationary. The scaling exponent ζ(q) is then estimated by the arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis and the multifractal properties is detected. The log-stable model parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] characterize the concavity of the scaling exponent ζ(q) for analysing the intermittency of GHI. The classification method is applied to the daily GHI for analysing the distribution of the daily intermittency process and five classes with GHI and Kb are obtained.

Use of Machine Learning and Infrared Spectra for Rheological Characterization and Application to the Apricot.

Fast advancement of machine learning methods and constant growth of the areas of application open up new horizons for large data management and processing. Among the various types of data available for analysis, the Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy spectra are very challenging datasets to consider. In this study, machine learning is used to analyze and predict a rheological parameter: firmness. Various statistics have been gathered including both chemistry (such as ethylene, titrable acidity or sugars) and spectra values to visualize and analyze a dataset of 731 biological samples. Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) principal component analyses (PCA) are used to evaluate their ability to discriminate for one parameter: firmness. Partial least squared regression (PLSR) modeling has been carried out to predict the rheological parameter using either sixteen physicochemical parameters or only the infrared spectra. We show that (i) the spectra alone allows good discrimination of the samples based on rheology, (ii) 3D-PCA allows comprehensive and informative visualization of the data, and (iii) that the rheological parameters are predicted accurately using a regression method such as PLSR; instead of using chemical parameters which are laborious to obtain, Mid-FTIR spectra gathering all physicochemical information could be used for efficient prediction of firmness. As a conclusion, rheological and chemical parameters allow good discrimination of the samples according to their firmness. However, using only the IR spectra leads to better results. A good predictive model was built for the prediction of the firmness of the fruit, and we reached a coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.90. This method outperforms a model based on physicochemical descriptors only. Such an approach could be very helpful to technologists and farmers.